AFC teams. Which are ascending. Which are descending.

[Chaos]

Bills finished 6th in the AFC this year.  Five teams did better, 10 worse.  Bills have a QB who should get better, and it generally feels like the team should get better next year.  But the 2020 Bills won't be competing against the 2019 Bills, they will be competing against the other AFC teams.   Which ones do you think are going to improve next year, and which ones decline.

AFC East
Pats - maybe the hardest one to gauge. But seems to be in decline for now. 
Bills - Ascending - QB should improve. In game coaching has a lot or room for improvement. 

Jets - I think Gase is a wheel spinner, and that the Jets are equally likely to go up or down
Dolphins - Dolphins really have almost no where to go but up. But they seem like a low ceiling team.

AFC North

Ravens, - ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
Steelers - ascending.  I hate the Steelers.  But their defense is solid, coaching is solid, and their QB situation almost certainly has to improve.  If rudolph and duck are they only choices at QB, then this arrow turns sideways
Browns - ascending - hate Mayfield, I think he sucks.  almost anyone they hire for HC has to be better than the clown they let go. arrow may be up, but ceiling is still low.
Bengals - ascending - no where to go buy up. Also low ceiling

 

AFC South

Colts - Sideways to down.  Love their head coach. But they look to be in QB hell to me with Brissett. I think they are close to looking at a full rebuild. 

Texans - Sideways to down.  They gave up a lot of draft capital to get where they are.  Despite his stunning return, Watts is on the decline.  playmakers have all peaked.  They needed the refs to cheat to win a playoff game. 
Jaguars - Down -- Marrone means always expect to go down
Titans - Ascending - Tricky one.  If Tannehill is born again, its an up arrow. If he simply played way over his head this year its a down arrow.

AFC West
Chiefs. ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
Chargers - declining - key players have peaked or are on the declin
Raiders - ascending.  I think low ceiling though. Carr is not likely to get better, which keeps them from moving much
Broncos - wheel spinning until the QB issue is solved. 

NFL always changes, so past is not necessarily prologue.  For 15 years the Pats, Colts and Steelers were the only AFC Champs, save for one appearance by the Flacco Ravens.

The Chiefs and Ravens, seem built to be part of the championship mix for a long time.  They are already the 1 and 2 seeds.  Have proven coaches and two QBs widely accepted at the best young QBs in the game.   Mahomes and Jackson may very well recreate the Manning-Brady rivalry along with Reid and Harbaugh. 

I am not sure if the Bills have the coaching/QBing to become the consistent third team in the mix.   If Tomlin and Belichick cannot create past magic, I think the Bills are positioned to be the next best consistently after the chiefs and ravens.   Unfortunately, I don't see any obvious moves that will allow the Bills to propel past these two teams on a consistent basis. 

To be clear on any given Sunday most any team can win.  The Bills can beat any team on any given Sunday.  But in 2019 against teams with winning records, the Bills did not win very many Sundays.   



 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

AFC North

Ravens, - ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
Steelers - ascending.  I hate the Steelers.  But their defense is solid, coaching is solid, and their QB situation almost certainly has to improve.  If rudolph and duck are they only choices at QB, then this arrow turns sideways
Browns - ascending - hate Mayfield, I think he sucks.  almost anyone they hire for HC has to be better than the clown they let go. arrow may be up, but ceiling is still low.
Bengals - ascending - no where to go buy up. Also low ceiling

 

Ummmm since this was the most obvious I'll just talk to the one 

 

The Ravens are the #1 seed.    They either go "sideways" or decline.  

The Steelers - with or w/o Big Ben - sideways or decline

The Browns - stagnant / sideways with a small chance to ascend.

The Bengals stagnant / sideways / ascend - they have no where to go buy up, but how far will they?

[ThurmasThoman]

There's a lot more that goes into a team's performance in any given football season than their performance the year before.

Some teams start almost 0 rookies, have little financial flexibility, and have a lot of money tied up in a small number of players (Los Angeles Rams). While they may not have looked like they were all in to win in 2019, their financial numbers paint them into a corner, and they might be in for more of a rebuild than their fans think.

Whereas some teams, like the Dolphins, start a huge number of rookies, clear out maximum cap space, and look to position themselves for an offseason of spending and building.

And the Bills--we started a boat load of rookies this year, have a ton of cap space, have very little money tied into our top 3 salaries AND posted a winning season--a rarity for playoff clubs.

The Bills are in an incredibly envious position, which is why I think they'll do well next year.

Just because a team has a down year, it doesn't mean their situation is improving--the Steelers had a bad year, but they started almost no rookies, have very little cap room, and have over 30% of their cap tied up in 3 players. There is very little room for rebuilding on the fly, and they're counting on Big Ben returning to form to get them to a championship. Knowing it's unlikely to get them over the hump, they might REALLY take their lumps next year, start a boat load of rookies, trade bad deals, and start a true rebuild. Personally, I would have them trending down, down, down. AND we get to play them next year.

[TheBrownBear]

I know one thing - it's going to be Bills vs. Dolphins for the division for the next 5-6 years, imo.  Much like the early 90s.  Dolphins are probably one year behind us in their timetable, but they will be good under Flores.

[Chaos]

36 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Ummmm since this was the most obvious I'll just talk to the one 

 

The Ravens are the #1 seed.    They either go "sideways" or decline.  

The Steelers - with or w/o Big Ben - sideways or decline

The Browns - stagnant / sideways with a small chance to ascend.

The Bengals stagnant / sideways / ascend - they have no where to go buy up, but how far will they?

Ascending in this case simply means to improve. Unless the Ravens go 19-0 , they have room for improvement. This is obvious. 

4 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I know one thing - it's going to be Bills vs. Dolphins for the division for the next 5-6 years, imo.  Much like the early 90s.  Dolphins are probably one year behind us in their timetable, but they will be good under Flores.

If the Dolphins do not find a good answer at QB, they will struggle. This is not a unique problem. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

51 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Bills finished 6th in the AFC this year.  Five teams did better, 10 worse.  Bills have a QB who should get better, and it generally feels like the team should get better next year.  But the 2020 Bills won't be competing against the 2019 Bills, they will be competing against the other AFC teams.   Which ones do you think are going to improve next year, and which ones decline.

AFC East
Pats - maybe the hardest one to gauge. But seems to be in decline for now. 
Bills - Ascending - QB should improve. In game coaching has a lot or room for improvement. 

Jets - I think Gase is a wheel spinner, and that the Jets are equally likely to go up or down
Dolphins - Dolphins really have almost no where to go but up. But they seem like a low ceiling team.

AFC North

Ravens, - ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
Steelers - ascending.  I hate the Steelers.  But their defense is solid, coaching is solid, and their QB situation almost certainly has to improve.  If rudolph and duck are they only choices at QB, then this arrow turns sideways
Browns - ascending - hate Mayfield, I think he sucks.  almost anyone they hire for HC has to be better than the clown they let go. arrow may be up, but ceiling is still low.
Bengals - ascending - no where to go buy up. Also low ceiling

 

AFC South

Colts - Sideways to down.  Love their head coach. But they look to be in QB hell to me with Brissett. I think they are close to looking at a full rebuild. 

Texans - Sideways to down.  They gave up a lot of draft capital to get where they are.  Despite his stunning return, Watts is on the decline.  playmakers have all peaked.  They needed the refs to cheat to win a playoff game. 
Jaguars - Down -- Marrone means always expect to go down
Titans - Ascending - Tricky one.  If Tannehill is born again, its an up arrow. If he simply played way over his head this year its a down arrow.

AFC West
Chiefs. ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
Chargers - declining - key players have peaked or are on the declin
Raiders - ascending.  I think low ceiling though. Carr is not likely to get better, which keeps them from moving much
Broncos - wheel spinning until the QB issue is solved. 

NFL always changes, so past is not necessarily prologue.  For 15 years the Pats, Colts and Steelers were the only AFC Champs, save for one appearance by the Flacco Ravens.

The Chiefs and Ravens, seem built to be part of the championship mix for a long time.  They are already the 1 and 2 seeds.  Have proven coaches and two QBs widely accepted at the best young QBs in the game.   Mahomes and Jackson may very well recreate the Manning-Brady rivalry along with Reid and Harbaugh. 

I am not sure if the Bills have the coaching/QBing to become the consistent third team in the mix.   If Tomlin and Belichick cannot create past magic, I think the Bills are positioned to be the next best consistently after the chiefs and ravens.   Unfortunately, I don't see any obvious moves that will allow the Bills to propel past these two teams on a consistent basis. 

To be clear on any given Sunday most any team can win.  The Bills can beat any team on any given Sunday.  But in 2019 against teams with winning records, the Bills did not win very many Sundays.   



 

You expect the Ravens to do better than 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC? Are they going undefeated?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

You expect the Ravens to do better than 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC? Are they going undefeated?

by his last post ... he expects them to win more than 14 games.  

[Franco_92]

Pats are descending. Slowly but surely. Potential for jarring events to make it happen even faster over the next few years.
Jets will flatline as long as they refuse to add competent edge rushers, OL, and coaching.
Dolphins bottomed out and are about to start what I expect to be a sharp ascension. 
Bills are ascending.

Browns are flatlining. They peaked in talent this year, some of that talent probably wants out, who knows who their coach is. Could go either way. Not high on Baker anymore.
Bengals are bottoming out, Burrow will likely help them start to ascend, but right now they're at the bottom of the trench. Any ascension will take place over several years.
Steelers are, IMO, are barely hanging on, and will need to fall a bit more over the next few years. 
Ravens are peaking, and look to plateau right where they are. Neither ascending or descending are good words to describe their situation, but it's one everyone would love to be in. 

Honestly don't have the energy to do this for 8 more teams lol

Edited January 7, 2020 by arcane

[Chaos]

10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

You expect the Ravens to do better than 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC? Are they going undefeated?

Young players, and young QB.  Everyone seems to think regarding the Bills that means you automatically improve.  Please detail why you think they will be worse team next year. 

[ogham26]

maybe its just me but I think the jets will be decent next year.  luckily they have terrible coaches. we just need a new England decline so that the Afc East will actually be in play.  This is the new route to actually making noise.  win the division and get a home playoff game.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

14 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Ascending in this case simply means to improve. Unless the Ravens go 19-0 , they have room for improvement. This is obvious. 

If the Dolphins do not find a good answer at QB, they will struggle. This is not a unique problem. 

The Dolphins have 13 draft picks next year including 3 first rounders and 2 second rounders and 94 million to spend. Couple that with a pair of first & second round pick in 2021 and finally finding what appears to be a good coach. The Dolphins will be players in the division for a while starting either in 2020 or 2021.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Young players, and young QB.  Everyone seems to think regarding the Bills that means you automatically improve.  Please detail why you think they will be worse team next year. 

As far as comparing the Bills vs Ravens chances of improvement....One team finished 10-6 and was the 5th seed in the playoffs, the other was 14-2 & the #1 seed. Basic math tells you one is easier to improve upon than the other, no? One has 90 million to spend in this year's FA, the other has 34 million.

 

As far as why I think the Ravens won't finish 14-2 or better...I don't see them winning 12 games in a row next like they did this year winning every game since week 5. I think another year of film could give defenses a better chance at slowing down Lamar. All they have to do is watch the Bills vs Ravens game. They also have 21 FAs while only having the 34 million to spend this offseason.

[ProcessAccepted]

9 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

The Dolphins have 13 draft picks next year including 3 first rounders and 2 second rounders and 94 million to spend. Couple that with a pair of first & second round pick in 2021 and finally finding what appears to be a good coach. The Dolphins will be players in the division for a while starting either in 2020 or 2021.

Plus when you consider how they traded away talent and could easily have just given up on the season but they kept swinging. The Dolphins have a solid rebuild plan.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Plus when you consider how they traded away talent and could easily have just given up on the season but they kept swinging. The Dolphins have a solid rebuild plan.

It reminded me so much of the Bills the last 2 years, except they have way more draft picks to use in 2020 & 2021 including 5 first rounders and 4 second rounders.

Edited January 7, 2020 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Bruce Harper]

I like to think the Jets are ascending with a new GM, a strong young core on the D line and a QB who has flashed.  A new OL would do them wonders.  But hard to have confidence in Gase.

[SF Bills Fan]

I'll just pick the one team from each division with a bright future and the one that is in trouble

 

AFC East
Bills - this year was just the beginning of a good run. I foresee nothing but improvement and the possibility of an AFC East crown next year
Pats- this was the beginning of the end

 

Watch out for the Dolphins in coming years

AFC North

Ravens- will be good for years
Steelers - about to go into QB purgatory, maybe already there

 

AFC South

Texans - I think the Bills should have beaten them, but they should be solid for a few years. Watson is good and only in his 3rd year
Colts- they were a flash in the pan last year

 

Watch out for Titans here- may have something if Tannehill pans out

AFC West
Chiefs- these guys should be good for many years with Mahommes

The rest of this division is messy. All are spinning their wheels with no one to challenge the Chiefs. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I know one thing - it's going to be Bills vs. Dolphins for the division for the next 5-6 years, imo.  Much like the early 90s.  Dolphins are probably one year behind us in their timetable, but they will be good under Flores.

Oh yeah? Well, at least I'm rich...

[MJS]

55 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I know one thing - it's going to be Bills vs. Dolphins for the division for the next 5-6 years, imo.  Much like the early 90s.  Dolphins are probably one year behind us in their timetable, but they will be good under Flores.

I don't think the Dolphins will be truly good for another couple years, and then ONLY if they luck out and draft a good QB. They will go nowhere with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

No way are they only one year behind us. They are like 3 years behind us. They don't even have a QB.

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Plus when you consider how they traded away talent and could easily have just given up on the season but they kept swinging. The Dolphins have a solid rebuild plan.

That's what Ryan Fitzpatrick does for you. I want to see if it is truly a new Dolphins culture, or just a bunch of players playing for Fitzy. Because Fitzpatrick isn't going to truly lead them anywhere.

 

I think the Dolphins are getting entirely too much credit for their season. Why? Because they weren't the worst team ever like we expected? They squeaked out a few improbable wins but still ultimately sucked?

 

They've got a long way to go and a lot to prove. Are they going to successfully use all that draft capital? Only time will tell, but they haven't earned any respect yet.

[ProcessAccepted]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's what Ryan Fitzpatrick does for you. I want to see if it is truly a new Dolphins culture, or just a bunch of players playing for Fitzy. Because Fitzpatrick isn't going to truly lead them anywhere.

 

I think the Dolphins are getting entirely too much credit for their season. Why? Because they weren't the worst team ever like we expected? They squeaked out a few improbable wins but still ultimately sucked?

 

They've got a long way to go and a lot to prove. Are they going to successfully use all that draft capital? Only time will tell, but they haven't earned any respect yet.

The world was accusing them of tanking and they ended up taking away the bye from the Pats in Foxborough. I got to give them credit for that. Who knows it may well come off the rails but they've set themselves up with a decent shot at it.