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Is Josh really getting the coaching he needs?


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I think he has for the most part.  Vast improvement from year 1 to 2.  Improvement for Sept to now.  Overall, Allen made plays to win the game Saturday.  Going into year 3 Allen is on the verge of being the guy.  With the cap space Buffalo is going to go all in for 2020.  Better weapons, and better chemistry around Allen will result in better production.  Alot of very good QBs lost their first playoff game.  As a Bill's fan the future has never been brighter.  For many years the 3 year plans never panned out.  I think the Bill's go into 2020 favorites in the AFCE.  Home playoff game in Buffalo seems like a high possiblity.  In September I think many would be happy with how Allen performed down the stretch and the totality of his second year.

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5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

The other solution may be to use him like Lamar Jackson but without his speed, but he has power. Push him into a passer who rushes knowing he won't lost past his rookie contract but see if the result can be different because at this point I will never see him as a pure passer. I don't think anyone could see him passing 40 times and the Bills winning. He's not a gun-slinger for touchdowns type of QB.

 

I could be wrong - one can always be wrong - but I don't see that, on the whole, as where the Bills want to go with Josh. 

 

They want a QB who can win as a passing QB but also give them an extra edge by making some plays with his feet. 

 

They think Josh can be that QB with another off-season of hard work and a new weapon or two, maybe a step up on OL either from 2nd year players improving or a new player there too.  That's pretty much my interpretation of what McDermott said in his presser. 

 

If he can't they'll move on, but they will not reshape and retool their offense to be Ravens Lite because I don't think it's what they believe in philosophically.

 

 

2 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

I thought he made a lot of progress this year.  As a Jets fan, I think the Bills have top-notch coaching.  He is who he is.  You are going to have to live with his weaknesses, along with his strengths.

 

That's not going to happen.  McDermott will hug the player and pray over them and maybe float a tear as he tell them their ass has been slung out the door because I believe he is sincere about caring for his guys as people, but underneath he and Beane are cold hard ruthless competitors and it's either shape up or move along (see Jones, Zay).  Josh will either take a step and improve, or they will be QB shopping.

 

That's not to say he won't always have weaknesses and strengths, but McDermott has made it pretty crystal clear he expects to see a significant step after this off-season.

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3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Tactical Coaching is something else.  I think we can assume that no coaches Allen to drop back 15 yards behind the LOS when pressured.  But since I am not in the rooms, I don't know if Allen is being given proper advice on how to handle these situations, or simply can't execute.  

 

I think McDermott and Beane's diagnosis of this is "feeling as though he has to do it all".    (I think that because both said words to that effect several times)  Allen is looking to make a play no matter what, and that is overriding everything else. 

 

I'm sure Allen's being given proper advice on how to handle the situations, but I'm not sure he's being given proper mental drills for it.  In critical game situations where he can't lose yardage, Allen needs to run an "emergency drill" through his head before every snap.  3 seconds of "If they're coming for me: hot read (on this play); throw away" to himself, - then continue with everything else related to the play.    This is analogous to the effective "implementation intention" statements studied by psychologist Peter Gollwitzer or the engine failure on takeoff checks a well-trained pilot clicks through mentally for 3-4 seconds before going through the normal pre-takeoff checks, ATC instructions or uncontrolled airport pattern etc.  It primes your mind in some not-quite-understood way so that when stuff happens, you don't think consciously, you just react properly.   He can probably do this on every snap in training camp and preseason.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think McDermott's diagnosis of this is "feeling as though he has to do it all".    (I think that because he said words to that effect several times)  Allen is looking to make a play no matter what, and that is overriding everything else. 

 

I'm sure Allen's being given proper advice on how to handle the situations, but I'm not sure he's being given proper mental drills for it.  In critical game situations where he can't lose yardage, Allen needs to run an "emergency drill" through his head before every snap.  3 seconds of "If they're coming for me: hot read (on this play); throw away" to himself, - then continue with everything else related to the play.    This is analogous to the effective "implementation intention" statements studied by psychologist Peter Gollwitzer or the engine failure on takeoff checks a well-trained pilot clicks through mentally for 3-4 seconds before going through the normal pre-takeoff checks, ATC instructions or uncontrolled airport pattern etc.  It primes your mind in some not-quite-understood way so that when stuff happens, you don't think consciously, you just react properly.   He can probably do this on every snap in training camp and preseason.

 

 

response to bolded. 

Being told what to do is easy.  Teaching how to do it is something else.  Its semantics, but proper advice to me, would include the drills you mention. 

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Honestly I would just like to know what the actual plan was to handle blitz packages Josh Allen had thrown on him in the 2nd half.....it looked like the protections were PISS poor and there was not outlet receiver to at least toss the ball to for no gain or short yardage.

 

Myself?  I would ran the CRAP out of that ball in the 2nd half of that game to keep the Texans from pinning their ears back...but that is just me.

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2 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

I will defer to your familiarity but what I see (as someone who only sees him a couple of times a year) is a guy who led his team to the playoffs,  who completed nearly 60% of his passes and had a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio, improving significantly over his rookie year.   Based on that, I'm inclined to think the coaching staff did a pretty good job with him.  But you guys see him every week so I will shut my trap.  

Good observation, not every poster here has the same opinion, some like Daboll the OC others think he’s terrible, I think the jury is still out, but I don’t have a lot of faith in Daboll taking us to the next level...

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18 minutes ago, Chaos said:

response to bolded. 
Being told what to do is easy.  Teaching how to do it is something else.  Its semantics, but proper advice to me, would include the drills you mention. 

 

Maybe it's semantics.

 

I find that a lot of times people give good advice - but they don't give effective implementation strategies.

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Much as I malign Daboll and question some of the playcalling is there a team left in the playoffs that has a weaker skill group around their qb?  Maybe the Seahawks with their current rb situation.  Better personnel in 2020 should do wonders   That is not excusing throwing almost 50 times so yeah I have my doubts as well

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

May we inject a few facts? 

 

Through the end of the 3Q - which ended with the Bills still leading 16-8 - Josh Allen had completed 16 of 25 passes (64%). 

 

Therefore, of 46 passes, he threw 21 passes in the 4Q and OT, after they lost the lead. 

 

Now, I can critique the playcalling in the 4Q and OT - I think they should have "Motored" more - but frankly, if the Bills have to limit Josh's passes to 30 per game to win, they need to move on at QB.

Consider that passing attempts overall have a negative correlation with winning, add in context of who he's being asked to throw to, and the fact that he was playing in his first playoff game: they absolutely should have limited his attempts.

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Consider that passing attempts overall have a negative correlation with winning, add in context of who he's being asked to throw to, and the fact that he was playing in his first playoff game: they absolutely should have limited his attempts.

 

I was responding to this:

"Josh  still threw it 46 times. He’s not that type of QB and he never will be IMO. His usage rate is way too high. Josh attempts should be no higher than 25-30."

 

My point is that I don't think the Bills want a QB who will never be a guy who can win the game with his arm and who must always be limited to <30 attempts.

 

In the specific context of the Houston game, I said that I think they should have "Motored" more, which would have the impact of limiting how much Josh tries to throw.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I was responding to this:

"Josh  still threw it 46 times. He’s not that type of QB and he never will be IMO. His usage rate is way too high. Josh attempts should be no higher than 25-30."

 

My point is that I don't think the Bills want a QB who will never be a guy who can win the game with his arm and who must always be limited to <30 attempts.

 

In the specific context of the Houston game, I said that I think they should have "Motored" more, which would have the impact of limiting how much Josh tries to throw.

I think 'win games w/his arm' is a QB trope. Fewer pass attempts (and by default more rushes) typically means you're winning. Generally speaking you want a certain frequency of pass attempts- the data suggest that the guy you responded to is correct although he doesn't seem to understand exactly why.

 

Re: the Houston game in particular, it's very, very clear to me that for whatever reason Daboll or whoever was calling plays simply lost control of the situation and the Allen followed. 

 

I don't know where I saw this stat, but following the season long trend- out of 4 wildcard games last weekend, there were 11 dropped passes and 5 of them were by Bills receivers. That's what Allen was dealing with when for some reason the staff asked him to basically win the game by himself. I thought given the circumstances he performed admirably.

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9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think 'win games w/his arm' is a QB trope. Fewer pass attempts (and by default more rushes) typically means you're winning. Generally speaking you want a certain frequency of pass attempts- the data suggest that the guy you responded to is correct although he doesn't seem to understand exactly why.

 

Sure, but I think it's confusing correlation and causation.   Teams that are winning generally try play ball-control offense and that's what limits the pass attempts.  It's not that they limit their pass attempts and it helps them win.

 

Part of the Bills problem is that they switch to playing ball control offense too soon, before they've socked the game away - and then when the other team comes back, they seem to forget about the run entirely.  Aside: did you catch in McDermott's presser where he acknowledged that he weighs in on offensive playcalling during games?

 

Quote

Re: the Houston game in particular, it's very, very clear to me that for whatever reason Daboll or whoever was calling plays simply lost control of the situation and the Allen followed. 

 

Agree here.

 

Where is the QB coach or the vets among the skill players to surround Allen during the game when he starts to derail and say "Hey, we are all here with you.  We are all in this with you.  Don't put it all on yourself."

 

Quote

I don't know where I saw this stat, but following the season long trend- out of 4 wildcard games last weekend, there were 11 dropped passes and 5 of them were by Bills receivers. That's what Allen was dealing with when for some reason the staff asked him to basically win the game by himself. I thought given the circumstances he performed admirably.

 

If you find the stat would love to see it.   Simply Ugh.

 

Beane actually came straight out in his presser and said "I didn't do a very good job in 2018.  We had cap limitations, but I could have done more".

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sure, but I think it's confusing correlation and causation.   Teams that are winning generally try play ball-control offense and that's what limits the pass attempts.  It's not that they limit their pass attempts and it helps them win.

 

Part of the Bills problem is that they switch to playing ball control offense too soon, before they've socked the game away - and then when the other team comes back, they seem to forget about the run entirely.  Aside: did you catch in McDermott's presser where he acknowledged that he weighs in on offensive playcalling during games?

Re: the bolded- yes and honestly this could just be me but I thought he was basically giving the 'I'm not thrilled w/some of the playcalling but I'm not going to kill my OC in public' talk...there is nothing in his philosophy as HC that I found in keeping with the way the game progressed after halftime.

 

Correct on cause/effect wrt pass attempts- however once the score was tied up it's simply not winning football skewing your pass/run attempt ratio so high. That's why I say Daboll lost his head, they were in neutral gameflow territory with no need or incentive to go pass heavy. They played the entire second half of the game and overtime like they were down two scores. It was complete madness and I blame the majority of it on offensive playcalling.

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20 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

The coaching staff failed Josh Allen in that 2nd half. The Bills were up 16-0 and Josh  still threw it 46 times. He’s not that type of QB and he never will be IMO. His usage rate is way too high.

 

Josh attempts should be no higher than 25-30. Get that run game going with Singletary and make him the focal point of the offense. That will open up the play action and can we please put some screens in the playbook!!  

This is a scary thought for the 7th overall pick...if we are just going to turn him into a game manager because he can’t be trusted with the ball in his hands, maybe we should just give Kyle Orton a ring...

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If Ford doesnt lower his head in OT on the DE, Allen very well may have led the game winning drive in OT.  On the road.  Allen imploding and being blamed for the loss is a miss-representation of the end of the football game.   

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17 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

This is a scary thought for the 7th overall pick...if we are just going to turn him into a game manager because he can’t be trusted with the ball in his hands, maybe we should just give Kyle Orrin a ring...

 

Allen the Game manager put up 370 yards of offense on his own with the worst skill position group in the playoffs  . Game manager would be Tannehill who somehow won with 70 yards passing and two ints.  We should have run Singeltary more and were still one play away from winning. 

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21 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

LOL. Yeah. For some reason, I always envision Elway sitting in his suite wondering why Case Keenum didn't just rifle 50 yard frozen ropes on 3rd and long. "Dude, that guy had half a step 40 yards from the LOS. Just fling it!"

I don't think Josh can be taught the things that Kelly, Elway etc. could do in a game.  He's not got the quick instinct in him.

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