It is hard to win in the NFL. What is the next step in the process?

[Chaos]

Dick Jauron was not wrong when he said it was hard to win in the NFL. 
 
The bills finished 6th of 16 AFC teams this year (give the tiebreak to the Pats, since they beat the Bills twice).    Advancing to the Super Bowl requires getting past those five teams (plus holding off other teams).   The Bills have completed three full years of a rebuild.  The have draft picks and cap space, and appear to have a stable coaching staff.  Lets take a quick review of the five teams ahead of us. 

5.  Patriots.  As long as Belichick is there, the Pats will have a coaching edge.  Pats may lose Brady (or Brady has declined to irrelevance) and Josh McDaniel .  Pats defense is on par with the Bills.  Their non-QB offensive play-makers are on par or slightly better than the Bills.  All in all, it does seem possible, but not a given that the Bills move past the Patriots
4. Titans.  Titans seem fluky.  Vrabel seems to be the real deal as a coach.  If they retain Henry, their play-makers on offense definitely are better than the Bills.  Hard to tell if Tannehill is born again, or having a fluke season.  If Tannehill is born again, the Titans are ascending. Will not be easy to catch. If Tanehill is a fluke we should get by them. 
3. Texans.  Texans just beat us.  Their is no reason to expect them to decline.  They will be tough to pass. 
2. Chiefs.  Chiefs have a better head coach and a better QB.  They have better play-makers, and are a pretty young group.  They will be tough to be pass
1. Ravens.  Ravens have a better head coach, a better QB, and a better O line.  They are also a pretty young group with no imminent salary cap issues. 

Other teams. Chargers seem on the decline.  Colts have a stable coaching situation, but no QB.  Jacksonville seems to be pretty bad overall.  Jets seem awful.  Raiders have stable coaching and some pretty good pieces. Held back by mediocre QB play. Broncos seem to be spinning their wheels.  Bengals are lost.  Steelers are without a QB, unless Ben surprise me. Browns will have a better coach most likely . I think Mayfield sucks personally, but if others are right about him, the Browns could turn things around.  Flores has impressed me with the Dolphins, but without a QB, they should remain mostly not a threat. 

The 2020 Bills won't be playing the 2019 Bills.  My question is NOT what will the Bills do to improve vs themselves. My question for the TBD world, is what do the Bills have to do to beat the Pats, Titans, Texans, Chiefs and Ravens, and hold off the others? 

[egd]

I'm not worried about the Pats. They are dead and we win the division next year, guaranteed.Therefore we get at least a home playoff game. As for Houston, we had them beat, but let them off the hook. The Ravens and Chiefs are good. The Titans are also good with the addition of Tannengod. Miami made a huge mistake of letting him go. I see our game at Tennessee next year as a definite loss.

Edited January 6, 2020 by egd

[peterpan]

We need our own version of Mike Evans, better performance at RT, and Allen to make another big leap.  

 

We also need our D to improve, and not just fold when the game is on the line.  

 

Also a new kicker. 

[Lurker]

Move the City of Buffalo to the sunbelt...

[MAJBobby]

Who is the BEST team in the NFL?  Where are the trends going in the NFL. 
 

build you team to stay ahead of those trends (have done a great job on defense doing it with team speed and middle pressure 

 

have failed on offense doing it to this point. 

[frostbitmic]

Get Krafty ?

[Foxx]

lets see how the Ravens do when Roman moves on to a HC position. also, the Bengals are going to get Joe Burrow, so watch for them to be a rising team.

[peterpan]

We need a new stadium.  Then the NFL will have a collective financial interest in the Bills winning.  Kinda like how the NFL made took the  Rams to the SB last year. 

 

Gotta help pay for those billion dollar stadiums. 

 

Raiders will be next team to benefit

[jkeerie]

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Dick Jauron was not wrong when he said it was hard to win in the NFL. 
 
The bills finished 6th of 16 AFC teams this year (give the tiebreak to the Pats, since they beat the Bills twice).    Advancing to the Super Bowl requires getting past those five teams (plus holding off other teams).   The Bills have completed three full years of a rebuild.  The have draft picks and cap space, and appear to have a stable coaching staff.  Lets take a quick review of the five teams ahead of us. 

5.  Patriots.  As long as Belichick is there, the Pats will have a coaching edge.  Pats may lose Brady (or Brady has declined to irrelevance) and Josh McDaniel .  Pats defense is on par with the Bills.  Their non-QB offensive play-makers are on par or slightly better than the Bills.  All in all, it does seem possible, but not a given that the Bills move past the Patriots
4. Titans.  Titans seem fluky.  Vrabel seems to be the real deal as a coach.  If they retain Henry, their play-makers on offense definitely are better than the Bills.  Hard to tell if Tannehill is born again, or having a fluke season.  If Tannehill is born again, the Titans are ascending. Will not be easy to catch. If Tanehill is a fluke we should get by them. 
3. Texans.  Texans just beat us.  Their is no reason to expect them to decline.  They will be tough to pass. 
2. Chiefs.  Chiefs have a better head coach and a better QB.  They have better play-makers, and are a pretty young group.  They will be tough to be pass
1. Ravens.  Ravens have a better head coach, a better QB, and a better O line.  They are also a pretty young group with no imminent salary cap issues. 

Other teams. Chargers seem on the decline.  Colts have a stable coaching situation, but no QB.  Jacksonville seems to be pretty bad overall.  Jets seem awful.  Raiders have stable coaching and some pretty good pieces. Held back by mediocre QB play. Broncos seem to be spinning their wheels.  Bengals are lost.  Steelers are without a QB, unless Ben surprise me. Browns will have a better coach most likely . I think Mayfield sucks personally, but if others are right about him, the Browns could turn things around.  Flores has impressed me with the Dolphins, but without a QB, they should remain mostly not a threat. 

The 2020 Bills won't be playing the 2019 Bills.  My question is NOT what will the Bills do to improve vs themselves. My question for the TBD world, is what do the Bills have to do to beat the Pats, Titans, Texans, Chiefs and Ravens, and hold off the others? 

This is a good post.  I give the Bills an extra year because they didn't have their QB year one.  Every team should get better next year.  You watch many of the premier teams this year, certain sides of the ball didn't become elite until they drafted that critical piece or made a coaching move (e.g  SF defense needed Bosa, Ravens needed Greg Roman).  What the Bills do in this off season will be critical.  As fans we see obvious needs...another edge rusher, a big, sure-handed WR, RT, a RB to complement Singletary.   What do you see as that most critical piece?

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, jkeerie said:

This is a good post.  I give the Bills an extra year because they didn't have their QB year one.  Every team should get better next year.  You watch many of the premier teams this year, certain sides of the ball didn't become elite until they drafted that critical piece or made a coaching move (e.g  SF defense needed Bosa, Ravens needed Greg Roman).  What the Bills do in this off season will be critical.  As fans we see obvious needs...another edge rusher, a big, sure-handed WR, RT, a RB to complement Singletary.   What do you see as that most critical piece?

I think the Daboll / Allen combination is not working out.  One part of that equation needs to be changed.  So I ask myself this question, which fake headline would be the most disturbing:

"Daboll Fired, Named by Pats to Replace McDaniels"  or

"Allen cut, signed by Pats as heir to Brady".   

I am pretty sure the second headline troubles me more.  So the move that is a potential game changer is changing the OC.    All the other moves are incremental, and probably don't move the dial enough.  In terms of incremental moves, I would look to sign Derrick Henry in free agency, and  I would draft the best Oline or WR available with our first round pick. 

[jkeerie]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think the Daboll / Allen combination is not working out.  One part of that equation needs to be changed.  So I ask myself this question, which fake headline would be the most disturbing:

"Daboll Fired, Named by Pats to Replace McDaniels"  or

"Allen cut, signed by Pats as heir to Brady".   

I am pretty sure the second headline troubles me more.  So the move that is a potential game changer is changing the OC.    All the other moves are incremental, and probably don't move the dial enough.  In terms of incremental moves, I would look to sign Derrick Henry in free agency, and  I would draft the best Oline or WR available with our first round pick. 

I love Derrick Henry but he's critical for the Titans so I don't expect him to be available.  As to Daboll, I agree there is something amiss there.  Allen loves him though.  I think his personnel usage is the most suspect.  Using Singletary vs Gore, for example, might have had different outcomes.  We had too many weaknesses on offense that changing personnel led to an obvious drop off.  I agree with you that we need to make offense the priority.   If we can improve the personnel so we have more depth on that side of the ball (like we did on defense), I'm willing to stay with Daboll for another year.  We'll see what McD wants to do.

[Shaw66]

Well, first, they've really completed only two full years of rebuild.   Year one was mostly tear down, and Beane has had only two drafts.   But your question is a good one.  

 

Next, I think you have to understand the process.   This collection of players learned a lot of things this season about how to play together.   The process requires that they carry those things forward into next season, and that they build on that knowledge.  The process requires that knowledge builds and builds from season to season.   The defensive will evolve, but the base defense will be the same.   The offense will evolve, but the base offense will be the same.   That's what the Patriots have done, and that's what makes them able to keep adjust their game - over two decades they've dealt with every kind of opponent, and they've grown year after year.   So, a second part of the Bills' improvement is going to come from overall team growth.  

 

Players will improve.  It's a really young roster, and players improve in this league.  They are not finished products after their first or second season in the league.   A guy like Cody Ford, for example, almost certainly will be better in his second season than his first.  

 

Then, you have the fact that the Bills have a lot of cap room and ten draft picks.   They're going to have to begin to make some hard choices, because they'll need money for Allen and Edmunds and others, but still, they have cap money.   I don't expect the Bills to attack free agency the say way in 2020 as in 2019.   Last year they wanted to retool the offensive line, so they signed 9 or 10 offensive linemen and figured they'd find enough serviceable guys to improve the line.  It worked.  But this off-season will be different.   I expect that the Bills will acquire a free agent starting offensive lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised if they also draft an offensive lineman who starts as a rookie.   That is, I expect one or two new offensive line starters next season.    There will be one new starting wide out.   There will be a couple of new linebackers who get significant playing time.   There'll be some change on the Dline.  

 

Why all these changes?   Because the process demands competition.   The process demands that guys come in and fight for their jobs.   

 

One final thing:  Three years ago, you wouldn't have had the Titans, Ravens or Texans on your list of teams at the top of the AFC, the teams to beat.   Three years from now, the chances are half or more of your five teams won't still be there.   Things change.  

 

It's a process.  

 

It's not a star system.  It's a team system.  So I don't think position by position comparisons are meaningful, and I don't agree about coaches.   I don't think there's any way to know how good McDermott will be - he's still learning.  I don't think Harbaugh is better now, let alone ten years from now.   You don't even mention O'Brien.   Reid, I love, but I'm guessing he's retiring one of these days.  

 

In other words, I think the Bills have in place a process that can take them to the very top of the game.  That doesn't mean they WILL do that, but there's nothing in the way.   

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, first, they've really completed only two full years of rebuild.   Year one was mostly tear down, and Beane has had only two drafts.   But your question is a good one.  

 

Next, I think you have to understand the process.   This collection of players learned a lot of things this season about how to play together.   The process requires that they carry those things forward into next season, and that they build on that knowledge.  The process requires that knowledge builds and builds from season to season.   The defensive will evolve, but the base defense will be the same.   The offense will evolve, but the base offense will be the same.   That's what the Patriots have done, and that's what makes them able to keep adjust their game - over two decades they've dealt with every kind of opponent, and they've grown year after year.   So, a second part of the Bills' improvement is going to come from overall team growth.  

 

Players will improve.  It's a really young roster, and players improve in this league.  They are not finished products after their first or second season in the league.   A guy like Cody Ford, for example, almost certainly will be better in his second season than his first.  

 

Then, you have the fact that the Bills have a lot of cap room and ten draft picks.   They're going to have to begin to make some hard choices, because they'll need money for Allen and Edmunds and others, but still, they have cap money.   I don't expect the Bills to attack free agency the say way in 2020 as in 2019.   Last year they wanted to retool the offensive line, so they signed 9 or 10 offensive linemen and figured they'd find enough serviceable guys to improve the line.  It worked.  But this off-season will be different.   I expect that the Bills will acquire a free agent starting offensive lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised if they also draft an offensive lineman who starts as a rookie.   That is, I expect one or two new offensive line starters next season.    There will be one new starting wide out.   There will be a couple of new linebackers who get significant playing time.   There'll be some change on the Dline.  

 

Why all these changes?   Because the process demands competition.   The process demands that guys come in and fight for their jobs.   

 

One final thing:  Three years ago, you wouldn't have had the Titans, Ravens or Texans on your list of teams at the top of the AFC, the teams to beat.   Three years from now, the chances are half or more of your five teams won't still be there.   Things change.  

 

It's a process.  

 

It's not a star system.  It's a team system.  So I don't think position by position comparisons are meaningful, and I don't agree about coaches.   I don't think there's any way to know how good McDermott will be - he's still learning.  I don't think Harbaugh is better now, let alone ten years from now.   You don't even mention O'Brien.   Reid, I love, but I'm guessing he's retiring one of these days.  

 

In other words, I think the Bills have in place a process that can take them to the very top of the game.  That doesn't mean they WILL do that, but there's nothing in the way.   

Do you have a specific reasons why the Bills will pass the Ravens , Chiefs, Titans, Patriots and Texans? As best I can tell those teams have good coaches with their own processes that have proven pretty successful.   Regarding rebuild. McDermott has three full seasons under his belt. This regime chose to pass on Watson and Mahomes. That does not mean we through out the first season. 

50 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Who is the BEST team in the NFL?  Where are the trends going in the NFL. 
 

build you team to stay ahead of those trends (have done a great job on defense doing it with team speed and middle pressure 

 

have failed on offense doing it to this point. 

Great job on defense seems to be a stretch.  Against teams with winning records, the defense did not produce at a level one would call great.  Maybe "good", but that is a lot different than great. 

[Big Blitz]

51 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Who is the BEST team in the NFL?  Where are the trends going in the NFL. 
 

build you team to stay ahead of those trends (have done a great job on defense doing it with team speed and middle pressure 

 

have failed on offense doing it to this point. 

 

 

Run the ball.  You can't throw 46 times right now and expect to win.  You need balance.  

 

The league is headed this way bc no one tackles anymore and the defenses are smaller.  So the more versatile you are the better.  

 

That doesnt mean this isnt a QB league.  You've always needed a QB.  

[Boatdrinks]

They need to finish the offensive rebuild. That means RT, WR1, RB 2, maybe TE. The OC could be an issue. As for the D, resign key players and add a pass rusher. Then see what transpires with Allen. It’s going to be a key year for him, so need to give him the tools. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Do you have a specific reasons why the Bills will pass the Ravens , Chiefs, Titans, Patriots and Texans? As best I can tell those teams have good coaches with their own processes that have proven pretty successful.   Regarding rebuild. McDermott has three full seasons under his belt. This regime chose to pass on Watson and Mahomes. That does not mean we through out the first season. 

No.  Did you have specific reasons three years ago that were going to happen to put the Chiefs, the Ravens or the Titans in your top five?   Almost certainly not, and even if you picked them, you didn't pick them because you foresaw Mahomes and Jackson and Vrabel.   NFL football is constantly changing, and what wins this season isn't necessarily what wins in three years.  

 

The difference between you and me is that you don't see it happening today, so you conclude that it won't happen in the future.  I understand that the NFL is constantly changing, and that there are different ways to win.   When I see a franchise making process, I don't write them off because they aren't yet a finished product yet.  

[Commsvet11]

Can anybody tell me what makes “The Process” any different than what 31 other clubs front offices are trying to do? 
 

 

[Rc2catch]

They will obviously add some important pieces and playmakers. It’s not like they don’t know what we’re missing. 
That said we need our young guys to continue to progress. These guys picked their young core players. They have to develop into real deal stars in order for this team to be any kind of threat. 
Allen, Edmunds, Oliver as our first rounders.. 

Then all the other guys. As long as the young core gets better every game, every year we’ll be fine. They have to continue to shuffle bargain free agents and veterans in but this is all coming down to our core players. Complimenting their games so they get better. 

Just now, Commsvet11 said:

Can anybody tell me what makes “The Process” any different than what 31 other clubs front offices are trying to do? 
 

 

For me the process was a one year thing. They needed to cut guys that didn’t fit their style. “The process” was a one year thing to establish a new culture around here and acclimate players to what the coaching staff expects. It’s still mentioned but waaaaay overblown. 

[familykwi]

Now that we've tasted success, we need to start to develop sustainable success.  The draft needs to focus on improving athleticism all over the field.  Free agency needs to continue to be fiscally responsible.  We don't deviate from the plan because we feel we're a player away.  We're not, so we need to continue to stockpile assets.

 

Players leaving for high salaries are not a bad thing.  They lead to compensatory picks.  That's how we continue to keep building and replace age.  Some of our players have outplayed their contracts (Phillips & maybe Shaq for example) may price them out of town.

 

That said, whomever they decide is integral towards maintaining continuity and would continue to play at a high level (and contract) needs to be signed as early in the process as can be done (hello Mr. White).

 

At the same time, we need to continue to find players like Poyer, Hughes & Phillips on other rosters and add to our depth and can also outplay their contracts.

 

I also think our coaching and administrative staffs need to have sit downs with colleagues and retired coaches to pick brains and fill in gaps that they may be overlooking.

 

EVERYONE has room for growth.

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Commsvet11 said:

Can anybody tell me what makes “The Process” any different than what 31 other clubs front offices are trying to do? 
 

 

I can't.   I think that coaches generally have the same objectives, objectives that we hear from McDermott.   Team first, love your teammates.   Work every day to get better.  One day at a time, one play at a time.   That stuff is the same. 

 

McDermott is clearly a devotee of the Japanese management processes - Sygma 6 and Kaizen, and probably some similar stuff I haven't hear of.   Some other coaches are doing that too, but I don't know how many are doing it.   Those processes seek continuous improvement - clearly part of McD's approach, and elimination of mistakes, also a McD value.   Those processes have a proven track record.   They worked pretty well for Toyota.  How many NFL coaches are committed to those principles, I don't know.

 

The question is which coaches, if any, can make the process translate into wins in the NFL.   The reason I'm optimistic about McDermott is that he has fierce determination and will not quit.  It's that attitude that drives the Japanese processes - a relentless pursuit of improvement.   At the core of McDermott's process is getting players who are willing to commit to the process with the kind of determination that McDermott has brought to everything in his life for 30 years.   That's why he and Beane have been clear that they look first for guys with the appropriate character traits.   They picked Allen, for example, because he demonstrated that kind of commitment to competition, work and improvement.