To All the People Saying They Went Into a Shell up 16-0...You're Missing the Strategy

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I differ on your final paragraph. To me of the Bills big 3 (GM, HC, QB) Sean McDermott is by far the one who is most proven to be good at his job and my confidence level with him outstrips that with Beane or Allen. 

 

 

Really?

 

I like all 3, but I think Beane has been doing a pretty fantastic job stripping and now building this roster and freeing up CAP space and Allen is sooOOOooo much further ahead than most people thought he'd be after his 28th NFL start when he came out.

 

I'm sorry, I think McDermott is a fantastic coach from Monday to Saturday, but his approach to the game is too old school.  The new NFL is an NFL with rules built around the offense.  Shut-down defenses just don't exist anymore.  You need to score points.  And I know that you believe the problem this year was more execution than play calling or coaching, but I disagree.

 

McDermott is a conservative coach--4th down aggressiveness be damned--who coaches overall not to lose rather than to win games.  It's evident in so many games the Bills play and for the months leading up to the playoffs, I said time and time again that McDermott's coaching philosophy doesn't fit in the on-and-done situation that the playoffs are.

 

Lo and behold, we get ousted.

 

Yes, Allen made tons of mistakes, but most of those didn't even come until the 4th quarter.  He played very well for 3 full quarters and Buffalo was only up by 8 points, in part because McDermott takes his foot off the gas at times he should be slamming his foot down.  And when you do that, it takes a few simple missed assignments on defense--which he clearly leans heavily on in his gameplanning--and suddenly a game that you thought you had control of is suddenly out of reach.

 

If McDermott doesn't change and grow and become more of a coach in the modern NFL, I fear we'll never even have the chance to be the dominant franchise we all hope we'll be, even if Allen develops and turns into a true Stud.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Really?

 

I like all 3, but I think Beane has been doing a pretty fantastic job stripping and now building this roster and freeing up CAP space and Allen is sooOOOooo much further ahead than most people thought he'd be after his 28th NFL start when he came out.

 

I'm sorry, I think McDermott is a fantastic coach from Monday to Saturday, but his approach to the game is too old school.  The new NFL is an NFL with rules built around the offense.  Shut-down defenses just don't exist anymore.  You need to score points.  And I know that you believe the problem this year was more execution than play calling or coaching, but I disagree.

 

McDermott is a conservative coach--4th down aggressiveness be damned--who coaches overall not to lose rather than to win games.  It's evident in so many games the Bills play and for the months leading up to the playoffs, I said time and time again that McDermott's coaching philosophy doesn't fit in the on-and-done situation that the playoffs are.

 

Lo and behold, we get ousted.

 

Yes, Allen made tons of mistakes, but most of those didn't even come until the 4th quarter.  He played very well for 3 full quarters and Buffalo was only up by 8 points, in part because McDermott takes his foot off the gas at times he should be slamming his foot down.  And when you do that, it takes a few simple missed assignments on defense--which he clearly leans heavily on in his gameplanning--and suddenly a game that you thought you had control of is suddenly out of reach.

 

If McDermott doesn't change and grow and become more of a coach in the modern NFL, I fear we'll never even have the chance to be the dominant franchise we all hope we'll be, even if Allen develops and turns into a true Stud.

 

We don't disagree that the offense remains an issue. We disagree on why. I don't see any evidence that is because McDermott is a conservative coach. I think it is easy to chuck that at a defensive minded head coach. 

 

But in my mind it can't be both that "the Bills get away from the run too often" and "the Bills are too old school" it is one or the other. We were top half in 4th downs attempted (15th) and in three of our biggest most high profile games this season we scored on trick plays from in / around the redzone. 

 

I don't see that as conservative. I think McDermott had maximised his talent all three years here as the head coach. Players improve under him, they develop, they play hard and they understand the system. He has taken a defensive mess he inherited and improved it year on year to be a league leading unit. Yes the offense needs work. But you know why I think that is.... there just isn't enough talent on that side of the ball. The Bills had one pro bowler. One all pro. One elite player. They won 10 football games (admittedly on a favourable schedule). Some of you seem to believe there is more to get out of this talent. I don't. I think McDermott has them where they should be. It is incumbent on Beane to keep improving the roster. So far he has drafted good players. But he needs one of his picks to kick on into elite company the the first rounder McDermott picked before Beane arrived has. And Josh is on track. But he needs to keep improving. 

 

Put it this way if the Bills fired McDermott on Sunday after the defeat (of course they were never going to) every coaching vacancy team in the league would have tried to hire him.

[Socal-805]

On 1/5/2020 at 1:25 PM, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I'd trust the defense to hang on to a 16 point lead too.

 

But going into a prevent defense and giving up a 3rd and 18 late in the game is going way too far in that shell.

 

+ 16

 

 

[Socal-805]

On 1/5/2020 at 1:18 PM, HardyBoy said:

The only goal there is to get up by three scores, period, end of story. They were in perfect position to do that before the Watt sack and Allen got rattled after that, which happens and impacted everything that came after it...and they still almost won. Put away the pitchforks.

 

That was the biggest game of Josh Allen's life he'll learn from this. Shoot it took Lebron James getting posted up by JJ Barea and the Mavs to learn the lessons that allowed him to mentally excel in that level of stress and expectation.

 

 

3rd an 18 - they blew it.  Even the announces agreed on that.  

 

Went into a shell, "prevent defense" with 8 DB's and gave them too much space up front.

 

Won't happen again I imagine.

 

 

[billsherd]

On 1/5/2020 at 4:33 PM, HardyBoy said:

 

They were in prevent from what I could tell, and it worked perfectly until he was able to run for a first...he caught the ball in the middle of the field 10 yards or so from a first down with the entire defense ready to swarm and tackle him short by 5 yards...they were too far away though...why is the question, I'm thinking that was on players and not coaches...again, the ball went to the exact spot you would want in that situation to force a 4th down.

McD said some young players got too deep in their ZONE. 

[Nihilarian]

On 1/5/2020 at 5:20 PM, Process said:

The bills got out coached by bill obrien 

 

Let that sink in

That ain't nothin!

 

He was out coached by now unemployed Freddie Kitchens!! 

On 1/5/2020 at 5:08 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Well put.  A very subtle shove of his QB under the bus.  Meanwhile he's clapping away when he sees his ancient TE dumpster pickup and the 6th toe of a FB going long on a pass play.

 

If McD can watch that game today or whenever he does, and concludes he has the future of his Offense safe in his current OC's hands.....then there's not much one can say..

I've always had the frame of mind that McD is a good HC and knows what he is doing...

 

Now after realizing this man let his OC go forward with Nathan Peterman as the teams starter for 2018. The OC also screwed it up most of 2018 so when the team got behind in points by as little as three, would go pass happy while forgetting about the run game only to lose every time. 6-10

 

Well, that things would change and the HC would have a sit down with the OC. That the Bills would find their run game and go with it this season. Only to see the Bills barely beating bad teams while losing to the future playoff teams every time, Eagles, Patriots 2x, Ravens and even the losing Browns. (The jets don't count) the ONLY team that actually beat Buffalo soundly were the Eagles.

 

That sit down never happened and it looks like Brian Daboll has had a free hand to do whatever he wants. Question, how do you lose a 13 point lead to a team with the worst red zone defense in the league when you are in their red zone five times? By kicking four FGs? The Texans had the 19th defense in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. 

 

The Bills OC had a brain fart of asking his young, inexperienced QB to throw 48 times while running Singletary only 13 times to be certain JJ Watt got a sack and a hit or two on Allen. 

 

If you go back and look over the season every time the Bills ran more then they threw the ball they won. Meanwhile almost ever time they threw the ball more they lost. Save that first Jets game.

 

Now I'm in the frame of mind that its the head coach holding this team back with his bad, overpaid choice at OC. (I believe Kirby Jackson let it slip that Brian Daboll is the highest paid OC in the league.) This is deja vu all over again with Maroon and his choice of OC in Hackett. Probably going to end up ruining Josh Allen...there are only so many times you can throw a QB into the fire again and again. 

 

The (9-7) Tennessee Titans showed the 2019 Bills how to beat the Patriots 'IN' New England in their WC game. Will Buffalo learn? 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/6/2020 at 7:20 AM, Process said:

The bills got out coached by bill obrien 

 

Let that sink in

 

 

If that were a particularly reasonable conclusion, I would, but it's not.

 

Our coaches made some mistakes but also a lot of good moves, and O'Brien didn't come out looking like a genius or anything close. Sure seemed to me that the best part of his coaching was having Deshaun Watson at QB.

 

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't disagree that the offense remains an issue. We disagree on why. I don't see any evidence that is because McDermott is a conservative coach. I think it is easy to chuck that at a defensive minded head coach. 

 

But in my mind it can't be both that "the Bills get away from the run too often" and "the Bills are too old school" it is one or the other. We were top half in 4th downs attempted (15th) and in three of our biggest most high profile games this season we scored on trick plays from in / around the redzone. 

 

I don't see that as conservative. I think McDermott had maximised his talent all three years here as the head coach. Players improve under him, they develop, they play hard and they understand the system. He has taken a defensive mess he inherited and improved it year on year to be a league leading unit. Yes the offense needs work. But you know why I think that is.... there just isn't enough talent on that side of the ball. The Bills had one pro bowler. One all pro. One elite player. They won 10 football games (admittedly on a favourable schedule). Some of you seem to believe there is more to get out of this talent. I don't. I think McDermott has them where they should be. It is incumbent on Beane to keep improving the roster. So far he has drafted good players. But he needs one of his picks to kick on into elite company the the first rounder McDermott picked before Beane arrived has. And Josh is on track. But he needs to keep improving. 

 

Put it this way if the Bills fired McDermott on Sunday after the defeat (of course they were never going to) every coaching vacancy team in the league would have tried to hire him.

 

 

Nice.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 1/6/2020 at 6:04 PM, JaCrispy said:

I watched the replay...after the ball was snapped the defense kept drifting further and further back beyond the first down marker...so that when the the dump pass was made, they could not make up the ground in time to stop the runner before the first down...had they just played their regular D they would have made the stop...bad call by Frazier...bad call by McD not to override...

 

 

That call's been working all year on third and long, and it should have worked again. That was on the players for drifting back too far.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't disagree that the offense remains an issue. We disagree on why. I don't see any evidence that is because McDermott is a conservative coach. I think it is easy to chuck that at a defensive minded head coach. 

 

But in my mind it can't be both that "the Bills get away from the run too often" and "the Bills are too old school" it is one or the other. We were top half in 4th downs attempted (15th) and in three of our biggest most high profile games this season we scored on trick plays from in / around the redzone. 

 

I don't see that as conservative. I think McDermott had maximised his talent all three years here as the head coach. Players improve under him, they develop, they play hard and they understand the system. He has taken a defensive mess he inherited and improved it year on year to be a league leading unit. Yes the offense needs work. But you know why I think that is.... there just isn't enough talent on that side of the ball. The Bills had one pro bowler. One all pro. One elite player. They won 10 football games (admittedly on a favourable schedule). Some of you seem to believe there is more to get out of this talent. I don't. I think McDermott has them where they should be. It is incumbent on Beane to keep improving the roster. So far he has drafted good players. But he needs one of his picks to kick on into elite company the the first rounder McDermott picked before Beane arrived has. And Josh is on track. But he needs to keep improving. 

 

Put it this way if the Bills fired McDermott on Sunday after the defeat (of course they were never going to) every coaching vacancy team in the league would have tried to hire him.

 

First of all, I think I've said time and time again that I don't think McDermott is a bad coach. I think he's a very good regular season coach and I think the Bills will consistently be in the playoffs for years to come while he's our coach.

 

I've been saying that.

 

For that reason, I 100% agree he'd be snatched up right away if he were fired.

 

What I really question is him as a coach who can lead us to the Lombardi. You hear it all the time from players and coaches that the playoffs are a different season. The stakes are obviously ratcheted up in that one n done situation.

 

4th down is somehow the proof for everyone who believes McDermott is aggressive. The team has a relatively new analytics department. Analytics today stresses going for it on 4th down in so many situations. Allen is a 240 pound QB. It's not aggressive to go for it on 4th and short with a QB like that by running it up the gut with a QB sneak. It's just logical.

 

If McDermott is so aggressive, why did McDermott choose to--because while we can debate who was responsible for plays like the handoff to Gore in that final 1st half drive, McDermott OBVIOUSLY made this one--punt the ball at the Texans 40 on 4th and 4? Why didn't we go for it or even try a 57 yard FG, which Hauschka has made many times in his career?

 

We were only up by 13.

 

Guessing something about trusting his defense, right?

 

Okay, then why is it that McDermott didn't trust his defense with just under 2 minutes in the game (now down by 3, thanks to a number of factors including Allen's mistakes AND McDermott's coaching) and 3 timeouts? No, instead he decides to go for it on 4th and ***** 27!!!! Later he would say he made that decision because he wanted to be aggressive.

 

Prevent Defense against an Elite NFL QB is conservative, is it not?

 

McDermott might want to be part of the new aggressive NFL, but it's not in his DNA, so many times he chooses to do stupid things we shouldn't be doing because he believes that's what he's supposed to do.

 

It's not always that he's conservative. Sometimes he's just dumb.

 

I don't know how much control he put in Daboll's hands, but I'm guessing McDermott has the authority at any point to veto Daboll's decision to CONSTANTLY have Gore on the field rather than Singletary, who I would argue sure looks like one of those Elite talents you gush we need. Yet, MULTIPLE times this year it's Gore getting the ball in critical situations or at critical moments of games.

 

And let's not pretend Singletary was exhausted on Saturday. He ran the ball 13 friggin times!!!

 

What encourages me is that I truly do believe that coaches, like players, can get better season after season with serious self reflection. That's what I think McDermott needs to do.

 

It's head-scratching that you evidently think McDermott coached flawlessly or close to it this year.

Edited January 9, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

It's head-scratching that you evidently think McDermott coached flawlessly or close to it this year.

 

Nope. I just think he coached better than Josh Allen Quarterbacked or than Brandon Beane GM'd. 

 

McDermott is, currently, the best thing this franchise has. 

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Why didn't we go for it or even try a 57 yard FG, which Hauschka has made many times in his career?

 

Because Hausch is 1 from 5 from over 50 this year and I believe it is 1 from his last 9 going back to 2018 from over 50 yards. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, then why is it that McDermott didn't trust his defense with just under 2 minutes in the game (now down by 3, thanks to a number of factors including Allen's mistakes AND McDermott's coaching) and 3 timeouts? No, instead he decides to go for it on 4th and ***** 27!!!! Later he would say he made that decision because he wanted to be aggressive.

 

Prevent Defense against an Elite NFL QB is conservative, is it not?

 

So the 4th and 27 was a bad decision. I don't disagree. But it wasn't conservative was it? That is my point people see defensive Head Coach and immediately go to "he is conservative". I am not saying he never gets things wrong. 

 

As for the "prevent defense" I guess you are talking about the 3rd and 18. The Bills have called that defense on 3rd and long all year they sit at the sticks rally and tackle and it has worked all year. The DBs panicked lost sight of where the sticks were and then when they got the Johnson couldn't get him down. You can call that a conservative call if you like but every team in the NFL is dropping into deep zone there. 

[HOUSE]

On 1/5/2020 at 6:17 PM, Sweats said:

Yep, they almost won.........almost.

 

 

6

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. I just think he coached better than Josh Allen Quarterbacked or than Brandon Beane GM'd. 

 

McDermott is, currently, the best thing this franchise has. 

 

Oh come on man! No one is saying Allen played great!

 

Saying McDermott coached better than Allen Quarterbacked is like giving a Calculus final exam to 2 kids--one who was in your class the entire year and one who just transferred in 4th Quarter from being Home schooled where he wasn't taught Calculus--and thinking the former is smarter than the latter because he got a higher score on the test.

 

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because Hausch is 1 from 5 from over 50 this year and I believe it is 1 from his last 9 going back to 2018 from over 50 yards. 

 

And we didn't go for it because?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh come on man! No one is saying Allen played great!

 

Saying McDermott coached better than Allen Quarterbacked is like giving a Calculus final exam to 2 kids--one who was in your class the entire year and one who just transferred in 4th Quarter from being Home schooled where he wasn't taught Calculus--and thinking the former is smarter than the latter because he got a higher score on the test.

 

Why did you presume this was a criticism of Allen? It wasn't meant that way at all. I am more positive about the Bills "big 3" than at any time in my Bills fandom. I just said in terms of proven commodity McDermott is ahead of the other two for me. He has done an excellent job since he walked though the door. Has he got everything right? Nope. 

[2003Contenders]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So the 4th and 27 was a bad decision. I don't disagree. But it wasn't conservative was it? That is my point people see defensive Head Coach and immediately go to "he is conservative". I am not saying he never gets things wrong. 

 

As for the "prevent defense" I guess you are talking about the 3rd and 18. The Bills have called that defense on 3rd and long all year they sit at the sticks rally and tackle and it has worked all year. The DBs panicked lost sight of where the sticks were and then when they got the Johnson couldn't get him down. You can call that a conservative call if you like but every team in the NFL is dropping into deep zone there. 

 

Much has been made of the JJ Watt sack that led to the 16-0 field goal (which kept the game within a potential 2-score margin) and ultimately proved to be the turning point of the game.

 

It is true that you could see the tide turn after that play - beginning with the Texans' next offensive series that led to their first score of the game, where Watson carried multiple defenders with him to the goal line -- and also broke a tackle to convert the 2-point conversion on the following play. However, it is worth noting how much softer the defense was playing on this series than they had previously in the game when holding the Texans scoreless.

 

In particular, one play no one talks about is the play that was just prior to Watson's TD run. It was 3rd and 8 from roughly midfield, and a stop here would have been huge. However, Tre is playing a good 10 yards off Hopkins in a soft zone. Watson sees it and is able to make the easy pitch-and -catch to Watson to pick up the 1st down. That may not be as dramatic as the 3rd-and-18 fiasco, but it still illustrates how much the Bills' easing off the throttle contributed to the Texans' ability to shift the momentum of the game.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why did you presume this was a criticism of Allen? It wasn't meant that way at all. I am more positive about the Bills "big 3" than at any time in my Bills fandom. I just said in terms of proven commodity McDermott is ahead of the other two for me. He has done an excellent job since he walked though the door. Has he got everything right? Nope. 

 

It's more that it seems that your belief is that McDermott has most of the responsibility for all our wins, but not in our losses, and I find that an odd way of thinking.

 

If I'm mistaken, that's not what you believe and you actually find McDermott largely culpable for our losses just like you largely give him credit for our wins, could you explain what your belief is with respect to that?

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's more that it seems that your belief is that McDermott has most of the responsibility for all our wins, but not in our losses, and I find that an odd way of thinking.

 

If I'm mistaken, that's not what you believe and you actually find McDermott largely culpable for our losses just like you largely give him credit for our wins, could you explain what your belief is with respect to that?

 

I think ultimately McDermott is head coach every win and every loss is on him. That is the way it works. But I always evaluate Head Coaches against their maximising of talent. Brian Flores was one of the best coaches in the league this year and his team won 5 games. McDermott maximised the talent on this roster. To take the next step they need some of the "good" young players to become elite or borderline elite guys at their position - Allen, Singletary, Edmunds, Oliver - and they need to add a couple more potential elite talents, especially on offense. 

[transplantbillsfan]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think ultimately McDermott is head coach every win and every loss is on him. That is the way it works. But I always evaluate Head Coaches against their maximising of talent. Brian Flores was one of the best coaches in the league this year and his team won 5 games. McDermott maximised the talent on this roster. To take the next step they need some of the "good" young players to become elite or borderline elite guys at their position - Allen, Singletary, Edmunds, Oliver - and they need to add a couple more potential elite talents, especially on offense. 

 

How do you think the talent on our team this year compares with the talent on this team 2 seasons ago when won 9 games and made the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons?

 

Do you believe the Bills are as talented this year as they were in the 2017 season?  More talented?  Significantly more talented?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How do you think the talent on our team this year compares with the talent on this team 2 seasons ago when won 9 games and made the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons?

 

Do you believe the Bills are as talented this year as they were in the 2017 season?  More talented?  Significantly more talented?

 

More talented, yes. Not significantly more talented.  And considerably less experienced. This team is the start of something but let's not forget the battle hardened vets on that team - Clay, McCoy, Wood, Incognito, Glenn, Kyle, Dareus. That team scraped in on the final game and this team was in with two weeks to spare with 10 wins and could afford to give up a game by resting starters in week 17. 

 

I think this team is talented but young and has made some mistakes that typically come with that inexperience. 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So the 4th and 27 was a bad decision. I don't disagree. But it wasn't conservative was it? That is my point people see defensive Head Coach and immediately go to "he is conservative". I am not saying he never gets things wrong. 

 

McDermott trending conservative is one issue I have with him.  Really bad in-game situational decision making is another issue I have with him.

 

Again, I like McDermott.  He broke the playoff drought and can consistently get us into the playoffs, in my opinion.

 

However, the way he is as a coach at this moment, I don't believe he's the "Championship Caliber" coach he pushes his team to be.

 

Then again, maybe next year we'll start the year with the "Championship Caliber" placard rather than switching to it mid-season from "Playoff Caliber."  I think that was a bit of a symbolic faux pas on his part.