THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - All Part of the Process

[Shaw66]

The Bills lost to the Houston Texans Saturday, 22-19 in the AFC Wildcard game.   I’m numb, and I’ve already forgotten much of the game.  I’d rather be numb than begin studying the game in detail, watching replays and analyzing players and coaches, because I don’t want to subject myself to the pain of reliving a game the Bills could have and probably should have won.

 

So how do I feel?  I’m disappointed.  Frustrated.  Happy.  Pleased.  Hopeful.  Angry.  Resigned. 

 

How can I not be disappointed, having watched a whole variety of head-scratching calls, plays and officiating decisions that cost the Bills the game?  And frustrated, too, with all of the “if only” thoughts that keep running through my head.

 

Happy and pleased?  Really?   You bet I’m happy.  The Bills showed that they belong in the playoffs, that they can compete.  Although they won’t say it, the Kansas City coaches are probably happy to be getting the Texans instead of the Bills.   The Bills aren’t ready for a run deep into the playoffs, but they are tough to beat.  I never expected them to be ready this year, and I don’t think Sean McDermott did, either.  Of course, he wanted to go deep into the playoffs, but he also knew that he is building a team and that his building wasn’t going to be complete in 2019.  The Bills’ best games are ahead of them.  So I’m hopeful.

 

Angry?  I’m angry about the officiating decision that opened the second half.   I’m sure there are other calls that are worth considering – I simply don’t know the details of the rule on the Cody Ford block that cost the Bills a shot at the winning field goal, but there simply is no excuse for not enforcing the rules on the kickoff the way they are written.  That was a fumble, an illegal forward pass, a safety, something.  The Texans made a big mistake and the officials just gave them a pass.   That’s wrong.  

 

So, what about the game?

 

First, the Bills have heart and courage.  Emotionally, they are off the charts.  Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott built them that way, and we can expect more of the same next season.  The game was over after the intentional grounding penalty and the sack killed what looked like Buffalo’s last drive with a minute and a half left in regulation.   The Bills had every reason to pack it in and go home.  The Bills’ defense had no reason to believe in their offense, but they banished those thoughts and instead gave up five, three, one and zero yards on four consecutive plays, giving the ball back to the offense.  Banishing their own thoughts of their previous failures, the Bill’s offense executed a masterful drive, with two shots at the winning touchdown before Stephen Hauschka tied the game with five seconds left. 

Those defensive, offensive and special teams performances at the end of the game were heroic. 

 

Special teams?  Yes.  They made the field goal, of course, but more impressive was their ability to abandon the field goal and execute a spiked incompletion with Bojorquez under center when the Bills’ first down was confirmed with with 21 seconds remaining and the clock running.  That was coaching excellence and player preparedness on display, championship-caliber execution under pressure. 

 

Some other points, in no particular order:

 

I’ve said all season that the offensive line is not good enough, and we saw it on Saturday.  I have trouble blaming Josh Allen for either the intentional grounding or the sack on what looked like the final drive in regulation, because both times defenders got to him essentially untouched.   He probably misread the defensive alignments and needed to be looking for those breakdowns, but they were in some way breakdowns of the offensive line.  Allen did a pretty good job most of the day avoiding the rush, but he deserves better protection.

 

Allen was erratic, to be sure.   He looks like a superstar, delivering bullets to receivers through the smallest of windows, but the reality is that his judgment in making those throws is questionable.  Why?  Because those throws don’t look any different than the two or three throws that were equally accurate that landed squarely in the bellies of defenders who just couldn’t hold on for the interception.   Allen was lucky.

 

And Allen choked.  After Ford’s penalty, the Bills called what looked like a hook and ladder, the plan being for Williams to catch a short ball on the right side, draw the tacklers and pitch to Singletary.  It was a creative call, a play that had a good chance of gaining the 20 yards that the Bills needed to give Hauschka a shot.  There was a lot of open field, because Houston was in a prevent-style set.   It was an easy throw, and Allen missed it.   It may have been Allen’s biggest mistake of the game. 

 

The truth is, as we’ve seen all season, that it’s hard for the Bills to win when they ask Allen to throw the ball 40 times in a game.  His completion percentage drops, and his mistakes increase.   Some of that is true for most QBs – when they’re throwing 40 passes, it means their team is losing, and they’re desperate.  Part of Allen’s problem is he needs better receivers.   And some of it is that he needs better coaching – in the game-tying drive, Brian Daboll called the same deep route to Duke Williams two plays in a row because (a) that was the only deep route he had, or (b) he didn’t trust Allen to throw it over the middle and lose the field goal opportunity, or (c) he didn’t have the courage to call something else.  Allen, by the way, did his job on those two plays, throwing the ball away. 

 

What about Allen’s attempted lateral to Knox?   Well, in the modern NFL, coaches don’t want their players improvising like that, but give Allen credit.  He knew he had Knox trailing the play – in fact, when Allen first broke containment, he looked like he wanted to pitch to Knox but Knox was ahead of him at that point.   As he was about to get tackled, Allen could see that the sideline was clear and that Knox would have a straight run for the go-ahead touchdown.  Allen just waited too long to make the pitch, and when the instantaneous opportunity passed, he was supposed to know to hold on to the ball.   It’s the kind of play that he will learn from.   

 

My biggest problem with the offense was that Daboll more or less abandoned the run.   Singletary was hurting Houston regularly – not as well as Henry gashed the Patriots later on Saturday, but 19 touches was not enough.  Give him another five or ten touches because it’s an easy way to take the ball out of Allen’s hands, and let the guy who looks like a consistent playmaker make some plays.  

 

McDermott tells his team to be fearless.   It takes courage to stick with the running game, because in the heat of battle it’s tempting to go after chunk yardage with receivers who, if not great, still make plays.  But the running game was working, and especially when the Houston pass rush kept beating Allen’s protection, giving the ball to Singletary could have changed the outcome. 

 

The defense was, if not superb, at least playoff caliber.   Houston has a good offense with some big-time playmakers, and the Bills held them in check.   The reality is that DeShaun Watson is a premier quarterback – he has a great arm, he’s accurate, he’s a good decision maker, and he is a tough, tough runner.   He’s going to make plays against you.  The Bills contained him pretty well.   Yes, Neal and Milano failed to get the sack on the play that essentially won the game, but Watson may be the only QB in the league who can make that play.   He’s just that good.

 

And just like Watson is going to make some plays, Hopkins will, too.  The Bills held him to six catches and 90 yards in essentially five quarters.  And the one long ball, a completion that admittedly hurt, was well covered by White – it took a perfect throw from Watson and an excellent catch for the completion.

 

What the defense didn’t do was make a signature play.  They needed a second-half takeaway, or the sack on Watson on that final drive.  They needed one big play from the defense somewhere, and they didn’t get it.  Or, if they weren’t going to make a signature play, they needed to make the play on the final drive on third and 18 from the Houston 19.  As the television commentators pointed out, the entire defensive shell dropped too deep, leaving Johnson with 10 or 12 free yards.  That wasn’t a guy like Watson making a superstar play; that was the Bills giving a good ball carrier too much room to carry the ball. 

 

The game was a huge disappointment, but the season was a success.   The Bills accomplished about as much as could be expected with an immature and still developing quarterback, and average talent on the offensive line and at wideout.  It’s a process, and the process will proceed. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[row_33]

As always a great read!!

 

all the newscasts insisted on telling me Josh’s stats were better than Watson’s....

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

As always a great read!!

 

all the newscasts insisted on telling me Josh’s stats were better than Watson’s....

 

 

Really?  They weren't.

 

And more importantly, whatever the stats, Watson was the better QB on the field. 

[Chaos]

Does "The Process" have milestones?  Is one and done in the playoffs, considered success by most teams after three years of rebuilding in the modern NFL (and facing a historical easy schedule) ? 

Is the year 4 milestone, win a wild card game? then lose in divisional round?
Then in year 5 win a divisional game and lose the champhionship game?
then in year 6 win the conference and lose the super bowl?

and finally in year 7 win the super bowl?

Because its seems like the process is more about bouncing around from 6-10 to 10-6 by beating bad teams and losing to good ones. 

[row_33]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Really?  They weren't.

 

And more importantly, whatever the stats, Watson was the better QB on the field. 

You mean they lied to me?  

 

for passing yard and QBR you should multiply them by 10 when you win and divide them by 1,000 when you lose

 

 

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Really?  They weren't.

 

And more importantly, whatever the stats, Watson was the better QB on the field. 

Watson had a passer rating of 121.  Allen 69.5.  Allen did have 46 attempts and Watson only 25.   Combined with rushing, the entire offense was far more on Allen, than Houston's was on Watson.  Terrible terrible terrible playing calling in the OT was the frosting on the cake. 

[oldmanfan]

As always Shaw is spot on

[IDBillzFan]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills lost to the Houston Texans Saturday, 22-19 in the AFC Wildcard game.   I’m numb, and I’ve already forgotten much of the game.  I’d rather be numb than begin studying the game in detail, watching replays and analyzing players and coaches, because I don’t want to subject myself to the pain of reliving a game the Bills could have and probably should have won.

 

 

 

Well written and well thought out.

 

I hope every Bills fan who soiled themselves gunning for blood after the game last night reads this and understands what rational, thoughtful fan analysis looks like.

 

Yes, it was a disappointment. Yes, a lot of things were bad. Yes, there is plenty of blame to go around.

 

But the trajectory doesn't change for next year, and the process will continue, and hopefully the team will continue to improve. 

 

Thanks, Shaw.

 

 

[Beast]

I said it yesterday....after the Texans returner caught it and then decided to run with it instead, the results of the return would have counted. 

 

The Bills were jobbed on that. It almost felt like the refs treated the Texans like a pee-wee team because a player didn't know the rules.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Binghamton Beast

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Does "The Process" have milestones?  Is one and done in the playoffs, considered success by most teams after three years of rebuilding in the modern NFL (and facing a historical easy schedule) ? 

Is the year 4 milestone, win a wild card game? then lose in divisional round?
Then in year 5 win a divisional game and lose the champhionship game?
then in year 6 win the conference and lose the super bowl?

and finally in year 7 win the super bowl?

Because its seems like the process is more about bouncing around from 6-10 to 10-6 by beating bad teams and losing to good ones. 

People make comments like this all the time.  The comment demonstrates that you aren't listening to what McBeane have been saying since they got to Buffalo.

 

The process is designed to build a team that has sustained long-term success.  That means that they're looking for the kind of success that New Orleans and New England and Kansas City have - that is, success where the team keeps winning even thought the players keep changing.  That's what they mean when they talk about building the right way.  

 

So, for example, the Bills went for quantity instead of quality in free agency in 2019.   Other than Morse, they didn't sign a premier free agent on the offensive line.   They signed a lot of journeymen, expecting to get exactly what they got - decent improvement on the offensive line.  They'll decide that one of two of those guys are keepers, and they'll get some new talent next year.  In other words, they didn't bet the farm with the expectation that they could become a Super Bowl contender in 2019.   

 

It's not an accident that the "Championship Caliber" sign went up late this season.  McDermott sets goals with the expectation that once a goal is achieved, they won't go backward.   The goal for 2019 was to become Playoff Caliber, and when that goal was achieved, the goal was changed.   That sign will stay up now.   Every player on this team now knows that that goal is achievable.  

 

There is nothing that anyone ever has said that this is the seven year slog that you make up to be contrarian.  

 

This is one of the youngest teams in the league, with a lot of cap room and ten draft picks and a process in place designed to generate continuous improvement.   6-10 to 10-6, including conceding a loss in the final game, together with going overtime in a Wildcard game, is substantial improvement.   Just because you're unhappy that your team didn't do better doesn't mean that the Bills are seriously on the move.     

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Excellent overview Shaw as usual. I couldn’t agree more, especially about the second half opening kickoff. That referee needed to stick to his guns and let his original call stand because it was the right call per the rules. The receiver never made any fair catch signal, nor did he take a knee which he should do if they ball does not go out of the end zone. I’m certain there have been more than one similar situations during the regular season where this action was ignored and treated like a touchback, but it’s not correct and this would have been the right place to set this act straight. With all the changes the League has made to pretty much take the kick return out of the game they need to enforce the proper procedures for the decision to not return the kick, period!

The other point no one seems to be talking about was the Texans coach’s decision to not kick the field goal late in the fourth quarter which would have given them a six point lead and forced the Bills to score a touchdown to tie or win the game. This decision ultimately gave the Bills the chance to tie the game. I thought we were very fortunate there for that brain fart despite what that blabber mouth Booger said about being the correct decision to go for the first down.

[Chaos]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

People make comments like this all the time.  The comment demonstrates that you aren't listening to what McBeane have been saying since they got to Buffalo.

 

The process is designed to build a team that has sustained long-term success.  That means that they're looking for the kind of success that New Orleans and New England and Kansas City have - that is, success where the team keeps winning even thought the players keep changing.  That's what they mean when they talk about building the right way.  

 

So, for example, the Bills went for quantity instead of quality in free agency in 2019.   Other than Morse, they didn't sign a premier free agent on the offensive line.   They signed a lot of journeymen, expecting to get exactly what they got - decent improvement on the offensive line.  They'll decide that one of two of those guys are keepers, and they'll get some new talent next year.  In other words, they didn't bet the farm with the expectation that they could become a Super Bowl contender in 2019.   

 

It's not an accident that the "Championship Caliber" sign went up late this season.  McDermott sets goals with the expectation that once a goal is achieved, they won't go backward.   The goal for 2019 was to become Playoff Caliber, and when that goal was achieved, the goal was changed.   That sign will stay up now.   Every player on this team now knows that that goal is achievable.  

 

There is nothing that anyone ever has said that this is the seven year slog that you make up to be contrarian.  

 

This is one of the youngest teams in the league, with a lot of cap room and ten draft picks and a process in place designed to generate continuous improvement.   6-10 to 10-6, including conceding a loss in the final game, together with going overtime in a Wildcard game, is substantial improvement.   Just because you're unhappy that your team didn't do better doesn't mean that the Bills are seriously on the move.     

Just because you imagine they are on the move, does not make it so either.  The Bills had very average results this year.  Their performance against thier particular opponents was just about league average against those opponents.  Next years schedule shifts from the horrible NFC east to the pretty good NFC west.  Very good chance the team wins fewer games next year, based on this years results. 

[row_33]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Just because you imagine they are on the move, does not make it so either.  The Bills had very average results this year.  Their performance against thier particular opponents was just about league average against those opponents.  Next years schedule shifts from the horrible NFC east to the pretty good NFC west.  Very good chance the team wins fewer games next year, based on this years results. 

clearly lots to learn for next year

 

nice to be optimistic for once in 20 seasons

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

I said it yesterday....after the Texans returner caught it and then decided to run with it instead, the results of the return would have counted. 

 

The Bills were jobbed on that. It almost felt like the refs treated the Texans like a pee-wee team because a player didn't know the rules.

 

 

 

 

You are absolutely correct about both of these points.  Absolutely.

 

I wrote a long post in the fair catch thread about this.  One of my points was that under the old rule, when the the kicking team could recover a loose ball in the end zone, every once in a while we'd see a return man who didn't know the rule and the kicking team would get a freebie TD.   I don't ever recall the officials taking away one of those touchdowns because the return man didn't know the rule or "intended" to take the touchback.  

 

It was a big screw-up by the Texans, and the officials gave them a pass just because they felt sorry for them.   ESPN's announcers said the ruling was "common sense."   Common sense isn't part of the rules.    

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Pretty much sums up my feelings. I would like to see DaBoll hit the curb. We need a modern, innovative offensive mind, not a Patsie clone who consistently has his offenses in the bottom 10.

[Scott7975]

Excellent write up Shaw.  It hits so much how I feel about the game that I don't really have anything I can add to it.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Scott7975

[Sweats]

Giving up 22 points is NOT playoff calibre D, especially when all 22 points were given up in the 2nd half...........sorry Shaw, you are wrong on this.

[inthebuff]

Great review, Shaw.  Thanks.

 

I think statistically Allen was better than Watson because of the dominant halves that they each had.  And you're right in that Watson just looked like the superior QB when the game was on the line.  

 

One thing that I hope that Allen works on next year is consistency.  

[Buddy Hix]

Your hope is admirable, and I mean that sincerely. I'm less convinced than you that the team is set up for success in the future. While it's impossible to argue that the team showed progress, it's hard to gauge where the team stands relative to the elite teams. Improving from last year's stripped down team was inevitable, so I don't want to hang my hat on that achievement. Also, the schedule this year was so soft that I find it hard to gauge where this team is. You give them credit for hanging in a  playoff game with Houston, but Houston isn't a good team, they had a negative point differential this season. This season was great fun but it could all be smoke and mirrors.

 

Next season will be a much better indicator about the trajectory of this team as the schedule is brutal. Too bad the season is 8 months away, I want answers now!

[Buffarukus]

28 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

Pretty much sums up my feelings. I would like to see DaBoll hit the curb. We need a modern, innovative offensive mind, not a Patsie clone who consistently has his offenses in the bottom 10.

 

im genuinly interested in what that is? we get OC's that run run pass and we scream this is a modern NFL we need to pass. We pass to much and we should run. we have designed qb runs that get chunk yards and a qb that gets a reception for a TD and thats not innovative? no doubt daboll has made some bad calls but we have to also look at poor execution of these plays as well.

 

i dont share in the hate. ive seen too many poor throws, droped passes and missed blocking assignments mixed with ill timed penalties to say daboll is the biggest problem with the Offense.