The Bills Formula For Winning in 2019 Was Never Sustainable For Playoffs

[vincec]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

conventional wisdom IS that you get the stars AND depth right now. Pretty much every team with a young qb does it for a reason. 
 

for some reason a lot of our base prefers we remain modest and scrappy instead.

Do you think the Bills are intentionally not drafting players who may become stars? Or are you looking for them to trade their next draft along with $200m on a guy like Khalil Mack?

Edited January 5, 2020 by vincec

[Phil The Thrill]

So again, to illustrate my point Minnesota was up 20-10 in the 4th quarter.  New Orleans found a way to tie up the game.   You can’t fault the Minnesota for letting them tie it up....this is what good teams do.

But Minnesota responded with a TD in overtime- led by Kirk Cousins.  This is what was missing in the Bills game

[djp14150]

7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

 

 

The eagles game cam down to a few plays.  The 65 yd TD the D gave up. Allen’s turnover late 1st inside own 25 getting the eagles 8 pts.  That don’t happen buffalo prbsblup 14-3 mid 3rd.

 

all season buffalo got a lead thrn they go conservative in play calling protecting the lead.  You can’t do that with just a 2 score lead unless it’s mid 4th.

Edited January 5, 2020 by djp14150

[oldmanfan]

Winning teams thus far in the playoffs in regulation: 19, 14, 20.

 

Defense matters in the playoffs.

[CardinalScotts]

lost by a FG in OT 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

But last night was also the perfect example

of how so many games played out this season - especially against good teams.   The formula for winning is based on the defenses ability to hold teams under 17-20 points.  This is a problem because in the playoffs you’ll be playing good offenses and this is unlikely.  
 

If the defense slips up a little and is unable to limit a team to under 17 points, the Bills usually lose.   Outside of Miami, the Bills have never won a game when the opponent have scored more than 17 points.  We’re not talking blowouts either.  The offense has not been good enough to score more than 20 points in almost every game this year.  It happened again last night.  
 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

I also do think he deserves credit for winning 10 games with an underperforming offense.  The overall coaching job this year has been great. 

 

Take a look:

 

N.Y. Jets

W 17-16

N.Y. Giants

W 28-14

Cincinnati

W 21-17

New England

L 16-10

Tennessee

W 14-7

Miami

W 31-21

Philadelphia

L 31-13

Washington

W 24-9

Cleveland

L 19-16

Miami

W 37-20

Denver

W 20-3

Dallas

W 26-15

Baltimore

L 24-17

PittsburgH

W 17-10

New England

L 24-17

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

They better pull their heads out of their collective butts and start really upgrading the offense. Guys like Kroft and 5' nothing Beasley is not my idea of upgrading. And frankly the oline wasn't improved that much either. Our draft and FA better be dripping with quality offensive players. 

[clayboy54]

3 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Scoring 19 points a game? Yeah I'll believe it when I see it. 

No you won’t. You’ll find fault no matter what we do.

[Phil The Thrill]

19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Winning teams thus far in the playoffs in regulation: 19, 14, 20.

 

Defense matters in the playoffs.

Defense does matter but so does an offense that can score points and not just nurse leads.

 

Both Buffalo and Minnesota got off to 10 point leads and stopped scoring for the rest of regulation.  This allowed the opponent to get back into the game.  
 

Defense matters, but at some point you need to score points on offense 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Phil The Thrill said:

Defense does matter but so does an offense that can score points and not just nurse leads.

 

Both Buffalo and Minnesota got off to 10 point leads and stopped scoring for the rest of regulation.  This allowed the opponent to get back into the game.  
 

Defense matters, but at some point you need to score points on offense 

Yep.  Like around 19-20.  I agree though we got too conservative.  McD needs to come to grips with that in the offseason.

[Meatloaf63]

15 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

They better pull their heads out of their collective butts and start really upgrading the offense. Guys like Kroft and 5' nothing Beasley is not my idea of upgrading. And frankly the oline wasn't improved that much either. Our draft and FA better be dripping with quality offensive players. 

I started a thread about the o-line and received the usual brain dead responses as usual on this board. Don’t go against the narrative you will be ridiculed. But make no mistake, the online is still a problem.

[billsbackto81]

7 hours ago, NoSaint said:

we gave up 2 touchdowns in 3 quarters after half time. This wasn’t an epic defensive collapse. It was an above average game from the unit. They shouldn’t have to be historically good at all times.

I thought this as well. I felt the D played more than well enough to win. If you can hold a playoff team with that type of star power to 18 points in their house, what more do you want? The coaches did not trust Josh more than the D. They should've let him ball like the half but decided to protect instead of increase point production. 

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

 

 

The eagles game cam down to a few plays.  The 65 yd TD the D gave up. Allen’s turnover late 1st inside own 25 getting the eagles 8 pts.  That don’t happen buffalo prbsblup 14-3 mid 3rd.

 

all season buffalo got a lead thrn they go conservative in play calling protecting the lead.  You can’t do that with just a 2 score lead unless it’s mid 4th.

The question is, do they go conservative because Josh Allen isn’t able to win games with his arm?

[Nitro]

51 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

The question is, do they go conservative because Josh Allen isn’t able to win games with his arm?

It is not that.  McD seems to have it in his head once up on a team to rely on his defense to carry them to victory and he and Daboll go conservative.  That thinking will win in the regular season but not in the playoffs.  They have to change the mind set.  Be aggressive for the whole game or until it is iced.  

[CoudyBills]

13 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Are you trying to imply that excuses his play?

Are you trying to imply it didn't affect his play?

[Teddy KGB]

Duke drops a td = Allen’s not good ??‍♂️??‍♂️?

[Penfield45]

14 hours ago, SCBills said:

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson.   I do think, with improved talent, next year they will. 
 

 

 

and yet you have delusional fans on this forum who want to sign a high priced pass rusher and draft defense lol

 

we need to throw our entire cap space and use the first 3 picks on offense. Beane needs to stop bringing mediocre talent here. 

[NoSaint]

27 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

Are you trying to imply it didn't affect his play?

It certainly effected his play. In fact, more than it should have.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nonsense. Defense, avoiding turnovers and efficient offense wins in the playoffs. They just need to get younger and faster at the pass rushing positions and add a WR to make a few big plays a game. 

Of course, Allen needs to keep getting better. If he regresses against better teams next year they won't make the playoffs. 

[Junyto]

15 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

But last night was also the perfect example

of how so many games played out this season - especially against good teams.   The formula for winning is based on the defenses ability to hold teams under 17-20 points.  This is a problem because in the playoffs you’ll be playing good offenses and this is unlikely.  
 

If the defense slips up a little and is unable to limit a team to under 17 points, the Bills usually lose.   Outside of Miami, the Bills have never won a game when the opponent have scored more than 17 points.  We’re not talking blowouts either.  The offense has not been good enough to score more than 20 points in almost every game this year.  It happened again last night.  
 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

I also do think he deserves credit for winning 10 games with an underperforming offense.  The overall coaching job this year has been great. 

 

Take a look:

 

N.Y. Jets

W 17-16

N.Y. Giants

W 28-14

Cincinnati

W 21-17

New England

L 16-10

Tennessee

W 14-7

Miami

W 31-21

Philadelphia

L 31-13

Washington

W 24-9

Cleveland

L 19-16

Miami

W 37-20

Denver

W 20-3

Dallas

W 26-15

Baltimore

L 24-17

PittsburgH

W 17-10

New England

L 24-17

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

We need more weapons on offense, your point is right on. The offense is simply not good enough to win in the playoffs. 

[LSHMEAB]

43 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Nonsense. Defense, avoiding turnovers and efficient offense wins in the playoffs. They just need to get younger and faster at the pass rushing positions and add a WR to make a few big plays a game. 

Of course, Allen needs to keep getting better. If he regresses against better teams next year they won't make the playoffs. 

Said it all year. I feel like the 7 sacks are slightly misleading because once they figured out their protection and Houston got hot, they really weren't doing enough to actually bring Watson DOWN or forcing him into bad decisions. The defense didn't really do enough to force QB's into poor decisions all season. Coverage unit is fine, which is why they were excellent against the pass, but BAD decisions by opposing QB's create turnovers. Didn't do that nearly enough.

 

Elite defenses don't give up that last TD drive to Cleveland nor do they allow Houston to march up and down the field late in the playoff game. The missing element is an elite edge player. They don't have one. Hughes is good. Murphy had a good game. There's just not "that guy." This missing element is the reason the Bills didn't flip field with turnovers. They got extremely lucky with the schedule because they faced bad QB's the majority of the season. They're gonna have to add this type of player somehow, some way, if they're going to be elite defensively.

 

That being said, Allen also needs to get better. The personnel needs to be upgraded to make that more feasible, but he's GOT to improve the cerebral aspects of his game if this team is going to improve and make a run next season against a much tougher schedule.

 

Front 7 disrupter on defense. Better play at RT and LG. Better offensive weaponary. Allen improving. All of these things need to happen.

Edited January 6, 2020 by LSHMEAB