The 2019 Buffalo Bills best path to a Championship was always as the road Wildcard

[PaattMaann]

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Josh’s home stats are so putrid they are not even worthy of a backup” QB...there should be major concern in the organization about it...I expect nothing short of more major upgrades to the offense this offseason...

 

if we could get his home production up to at least his road production, he might actually be able to be a top 15 QB...

 

that being said, I do feel more confident playing on the road...

 

where exactly do we have these major upgrades?

 

LT - same

LG - could be the same, Spain has been stellar (no sacks all year)

C - same

RG - same

RT - Could be an upgrade but I would be surprised given the resources put into Ty/Ford

QB - same

RB - probably an upgrade of RB 2, but is that major?

WR - I'm guessing this is where you want that "major upgrade" - agreed, a solid number 2 or an equal to John Brown as a number 1 

TE - same

 

sooooo...are you just saying the major upgrade will be adding a good WR or a rookie WR with potential? Yea, I agree....but you consider that "major upgrades"?

[ALLEN1QB]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

We don't play well at home because we have no cheerleaders.

 

SS not looking so good these days.

[badassgixxer05]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

We don't play well at home because we have no cheerleaders.

 

On a serious note, that should be one thing the Pegulas should work on fixing. Formulate a team, give them a wage and be done with it. I know its prob way harder then that with all the legal bs, but man do i miss me some cheerleaders. ?

[Buffalophil1948]

Just a quick thought.  I believe we play better on the road is that we a a defensive team. On the road its quiet when the defense is on the field. They can communicate to each other easier, which makes them better.  At home it's just deafening when they are on the field.  Also when josh is on the field on the road it's very loud. He can't communicate as well so he's not trying to be to cute and out think himself.  He just goes out and plays.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, Buffalophil1948 said:

Just a quick thought.  I believe we play better on the road is that we a a defensive team. On the road its quiet when the defense is on the field. They can communicate to each other easier, which makes them better.  At home it's just deafening when they are on the field.  Also when josh is on the field on the road it's very loud. He can't communicate as well so he's not trying to be to cute and out think himself.  He just goes out and plays.

 

3 of the Bills Home Losses are ALL playoff teams. 

Chuck the 4th home loss to the JETS game out the window.  It was a Preseason game played with backups against the JETS starters. 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Weather is a factor. 

 

It may not be a benefit to the home team.

Using the home stadium passer rating adjustment I've come up with these are some of the guys who are hurt by playing half their games where they do: Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. They're passer rating needs to be adjusted upward 5-10 pts.

 

These are some of the guys who benefit from where they play half their games and should be adjusted downward for comparison's sake: Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, Dree Brees, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Phillip Rivers, Jared Goff, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

As to Josh Allen he is situated at number 14 in QBR after the adjustment, right between Dak Prescott and DeShaun Watson. The new top 2 become Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Ryan Fitzpatrick becomes the new #32.

Edited January 3, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[JESSEFEFFER]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I did a quick search for the thread that argued this very point--which I've been arguing for awhile, too--but couldn't find it... figured the point is relevant now.

 

The 2019 Buffalo Bills are a road team. And it's not just the whole notion that defense travels, though it does.

 

Our offense scored nearly 5 fewer points at home than on the road. And even if you want to argue that the last game against the Jets skews that, our offense still scored over 3 fewer points at home than on the road.

 

Somehow it all starts with Allen, who I truly believe feels added pressure when he plays at home that makes him play tighter. I hope he can get over this in the offseason, but anyone watching him play probably noticed it. And the numbers certainly bear it out.

 

Allen at home: 54.9% completion percentage, 5.9 YPA, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.9 Passer Rating

 

Allen on the road: 62.1% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 92.6 Passer Rating 

 

4-4 at home

 

6-2 on the road

 

More 4th quarter comebacks on the road than at home.

 

2 primetime games both on the road. Both wins with Allen showing up on the big stage on the road.

 

Can't really argue the defenses he played at home vs on the road because he played an equal number of top 10 defenses at home (4) as he did on the road (4). 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses at home: 46.2% completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 4th Quarter comebacks, 56.8 Passer Rating 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses on the road: 61.6% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 24th quarter comebacks, 88 Passer Rating 

 

 

I am not predicting a win. But honestly, I feel better about our offense and Josh Allen on the road on this big stage in a playoff game than I would have at home, where he seems to play tight under what appears to be added home crowd pressure.

 

What actually has me worried this week more is our defense, which is going up against a runner in Carlos Hyde who is the exact type of runner our defense has proven weak against this year. Not to mention Watson, Hopkins and potentially Fuller.

 

Nonetheless, I'm excited--and terrified--of this upcoming road playoff game and any we might have remaining if we win this one 

 

Passing and kicking games suffer in windy conditions.  There were 4 such games at home this year.  It's tough to quantify the effects wind/weather have on those stats you cite but I think it explains much of the difference.  I do not remember any tough weather conditions on the road. 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, White Linen said:

Our head coach's conservative offensive mindset and Daboll's inept play calling are the biggest reason to be concerned about our offense.  They've clipped his natural instincts wings.  He's even running strange and falling awkwardly when getting tackled.  Then when they need him to step up and use his instincts he consistently has delivered.  Yes, he misses some throws, they all do, not just young QB's.  A young QB is going to miss seeing the open guy at times.  

 

Your fear should be with our head coach wanting the time of possession to be with our defense.  That's a problem.  

 

The "play fearless" comment was a hoax.  

 

I actually think the "play fearless" comment was more short-lived than anything.

[Foxx]

i don't care where they play this year,as it is more than likely only the beginning of a solid playoff team for years to come.

 

also, Josh has the chance to be the first QB from the class of '18 to win a playoff game.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Foxx

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

12 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i don't care where they play this year.,as it is more than likely only the beginning of a solid playoff team for years to come.

 

also, Josh has the chance to be the first QB from the class of '18 to win a playoff game.

 

And to me >>>>   that  matters  A LOT 

[Greg S]

27 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i don't care where they play this year.,as it is more than likely only the beginning of a solid playoff team for years to come.

 

also, Josh has the chance to be the first QB from the class of '18 to win a playoff game.

 

If they do win tomorrow ( I think they will in a close game) think of how sweet it will be to just relax and watch the other playoff games knowing the Bills are going to Baltimore/KC. I would love to watch the Pats struggle with their fanbase nervous as hell on Saturday night after a Bills win earlier in the day.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

I think Josh still gets too amped up before home games and the intensity of the home crowd probably only adds to that. That being said I do recall at least couple of very windy home games this year, the Philly game comes to mind as one. He's always going to play half a year worth of home games or more in less than ideal weather conditions and it will hurt his career numbers. He doesn't get the benefit of playing in a dome, the south or out west.

[CLTbills]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

Hmm. This is a little too extreme of a conclusion given the very limited data. It's a reach to assume Allen's performance dips at home due to "added pressure". There are countless factors involved, and I'd put that one toward the bottom of the list of possibilities.

I'd just look at the teams we played at home vs. the teams we played away. We played better teams at home. You're right, way too small of a sample size.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

where exactly do we have these major upgrades?

 

LT - same

LG - could be the same, Spain has been stellar (no sacks all year)

C - same

RG - same

RT - Could be an upgrade but I would be surprised given the resources put into Ty/Ford

QB - same

RB - probably an upgrade of RB 2, but is that major?

WR - I'm guessing this is where you want that "major upgrade" - agreed, a solid number 2 or an equal to John Brown as a number 1 

TE - same

 

sooooo...are you just saying the major upgrade will be adding a good WR or a rookie WR with potential? Yea, I agree....but you consider that "major upgrades"?

 

Singletary is an upgrade over Shady last year...dude averages 5.1 YPC and McCoy average 3.2 last year.  Too much dancing in the backfield where he could have gotten a yard or two that ended up in negative plays.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, MJS said:

Hmm. This is a little too extreme of a conclusion given the very limited data. It's a reach to assume Allen's performance dips at home due to "added pressure". There are countless factors involved, and I'd put that one toward the bottom of the list of possibilities.

 

Then what factors on the list would you put above it?

 

Clearly you think there are many.

12 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

I love these theories as to why Allen is inaccurate.  They got increasingly incredible as the season went on. 

 

He's struggled with accuracy his entire collegiate and now professional career.  It has nothing to with "added pressure at home."  

 

He's inconsistent and inaccurate, that is all. 

 

There is no magic formula to fix it nor is there a dark cloud hovering over him at home games. 

 

Whatever his issues are they need to be corrected by next season.  If he's looking the same way this time next year, its pretty safe to say he's not our franchise guy. 

 

I pray his consistent side show up for at least this wild card round.   It will be a huge disappointment to lose in round 1 and lose to a passing defense ranked 26th in the NFL. 

 

Then why was he pretty consistently accurate on the road?

 

His completion percentage on the road vs at home is strikingly better.

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Then what factors on the list would you put above it?

 

Clearly you think there are many.

Opponents would be the big one.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

Opponents would be the big one.

 

Already established the defenses Allen faced at home were very much similar to the defenses he played on the road.

 

2 top 5 defenses at home.

 

2 top 5 defenses on the road.

 

4 top 10 defenses at home.

 

4 top 10 defenses on the road.

 

What are the other factors?

[White Linen]

13 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

- accuracy 

- missed throws

 

How are these an issue of coaching and not execution?

 

 

 

Try reading the post sir.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

was always as the road Wildcard

 

Had they beaten the Ravens the story changes. One busted play cost the Bills the game.   

Win that game and play the starters week 17 so much would be different.

(or not lost to the Eagles or the Pats****  first game and the dirty hit to Josh)

 

Unfortunately being the 5th seed .... It's not that easy. 

 

The first link is current, the latter two are outdated edits in red.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/wild-card-teams-havent-reached-super-bowl-since-2013-heres-how-they-have-fared-since-playoff-expansion/

Wild-card teams haven't reached Super Bowl since 2013; here's how they have fared since playoff expansion

 

Teams that have earned a first-round bye have represented the AFC and the NFC in the Super Bowl in each of the past six years, with no wild-card team going to the Super Bowl since the 2012 Baltimore Ravens (they defeated San Francisco in Super Bowl XLVII).

 

Baltimore's Super Bowl win ended a streak of three consecutive Super Bowl winners to come out of the wild-card round -- the 2010 Green Bay Packers were a No. 6 seed and the 2011 New York Giants were a fourth seed (and a 9-win team) when they won the Super Bowl. Wild-card teams making the Super Bowl were commonplace between 2003 and 2012, as eight wild-card teams were able to reach the championship round, out of 20 participants, with six winning it all.

 

Being the No. 5 seed is the hardest path toward Super Bowl glory as the only No. 5 seed to make the Super Bowl was the 2007 Giants

 

 A history of NFL wild card teams to make it to Super Bowls ... 

Since the wild card format began in 1970, (50 years ago) there have been 11 wild card teams to make it to the Super Bowl. 7 of those 11 have won the Super Bowl.

1992 Bills (11-5)

On the way to appearing in their third straight Super Bowl, the Bills finished second in the AFC East behind the Dolphins, so they were the fourth seed and hosted the Oilers in the wild card game in an absolute classic. 

 

The Bills were down 35-3 to the Oilers when backup quarterback Frank Reich orchestrated an incredible comeback and the Bills won in overtime. They made it to the Super Bowl but were blown out by the Cowboys. 

Wild card round: vs. Oilers - Won 41-38 (OT) 
Divisional round: at Steelers - Won 24-3
AFC Championship: at Dolphins - Won 29-10
Super Bowl XXVII: vs. Cowboys - Lost 52-17

 

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/history-of-the-wild-card/

 

1975 Dallas Cowboys  (10-4-0, 2nd Place, NFC Eastern Division)
Divisional Playoff – at Minnesota Vikings – (W) – 17-14
NFC Championship – at Los Angeles Rams – (W) – 37-7
Super Bowl X – vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – (L) – 21-17

 

1980 Oakland Raiders ( 11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC Western Division)
Wild Card Playoff – vs. Houston Oilers – (W) – 27-7
Divisional Playoff – at Cleveland Browns – (W) – 14-12
AFC Championship – at San Diego Chargers – (W) – 34-27
Super Bowl XV – vs. Philadelphia Eagles – (W) – 27-10

 

1985 New England Patriots (11-5-0, 3rd Place, AFC Eastern Division)
Wild Card Playoff – at New York Jets – (W) – 26-14
Divisional Playoff – at Los Angeles Raiders – (W) – 27-20
AFC Championship – at Miami Dolphins – (W) – 31-14
Super Bowl XX – vs. Chicago Bears – (L) – 46-10

 

1992 Buffalo Bills (11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC Eastern Division)
Wild Card Playoff – vs. Houston Oilers – (W) – 41-38 (OT)
Divisional Playoff – at Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) – 24-3
AFC Championship – at Miami Dolphins – (W) – 29-10
Super Bowl XXVII – vs. Dallas Cowboys – (L) – 52-17

 

1997 Denver Broncos (12-4-0, 2nd Place, AFC Western Division)
Wild Card Playoff – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – (W) – 42-17
Divisional Playoff – at Kansas City Chiefs – (W) – 14-10
AFC Championship – at Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) – 24-21
Super Bowl XXXII – vs. Green Bay Packers – (W) – 31-24

 

1999 Tennessee Titans (13-3-0, 2nd Place, AFC Central Division) *****
Wild Card Playoff – vs. Buffalo Bills – (W) – 22-16
Divisional Playoff – at Indianapolis Colts – (W) – 19-16
AFC Championship – at Jacksonville Jaguars – (W) – 33-14
Super Bowl XXXIV – vs. St. Louis Rams – (L) – 23-16

 

2000 Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0, 2nd Place, AFC Central Division)
Wild Card Playoff – vs. Denver Broncos – (W) – 21-3
Divisional Playoff – at Tennessee Titans – (W) – 24-10
AFC Championship – at Oakland Raiders – (W) – 16-3
Super Bowl XXXV – vs. New York Giants – (W) – 34-7

 

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC North Division)
Wild Card Playoff – at Cincinnati Bengals – (W) 31-17
Divisional Playoff – at Indianapolis Colts – (W) 21-18
AFC Championship – at Denver Broncos – (W) 34-17
Super Bowl XL – vs. Seattle Seahawks – (W) 21-10

 

2007 New York Giants (10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East Division)
Wild Card Playoff – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (W) 24-14
Divisional Playoff – at Dallas Cowboys – (W) 21-17
NFC Championship – at Green Bay Packers – (W) 23-20 (OT)
Super Bowl XLII – vs. New England Patriots – (W) 17-14

2010 Green Bay Packers (10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC North Division)
Wild Card Playoff – at Philadelphia Eagles – (W) 21-16
Divisional Playoff – at Atlanta Falcons – (W) 48-21
NFC Championship – at Chicago Bears – (W) 21-14
Super Bowl XLV – vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) 31-25

 

2013 Baltimore Ravens

Edited 2012 to 2013 for the Year not the season.

 

 

 

9 hours ago, colin said:

 

was that 2012 Raven team a wildcard too?

 

over 50 years it looks weak for a wildcard team, but from 2000 to 2013, it looked pretty good!

 

Some poster somewhere on here had a great analogy over the last few weeks debunking the "trend argument" like the one brought up here.

 

These may be the trends over the last half century, but they aren't determinitive for this team. Just like life expectancy. Just because life expectancy for an American Male is whatever it is right now (79 years??), that doesn't mean that's my life expectancy.

 

This trend argument is the type of thing a bettor in Vegas can use when putting money down on teams he hasn't watched. We, however, have watched this football team play. I just don't know how anyone watching this team this year believes that the Bills--as a whole team... not just Josh--played better or even as good at New Era as they did on the road.

Edited January 3, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[reddogblitz]

11 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

this season has been great.   essentially 11-5 , and the wins were largely solid and the losses were close.  I'll take 11-5 every season.  go Josh.   the process is delivering 2 wins for every loss.  taking it all day and night.   tremendous to have a team that is absolutely in every game , fighting for a win down to the final play.   absolutely love being able to watch Bills football again.   keep the process moving McBeanes. 

 

We haven't gone 11-5 since Flutie left town.  And I would also take 11-5 every season.  Hopefully next year.