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What is the key to the game?


Matt_In_NH

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12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Eh.  Agree he needs to play well, but if the line stays out of his lap, he plays good

When the line moves into his living room, his footwork regresses, he throws early, and he loses some vision.

 

To my point about ‘2nd year stuff’. Wish I could agree with your 1st comment, but I can’t. He starts shaky in important games regardless of OL production. Again, 2nd year stuff..

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1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

To my point about ‘2nd year stuff’. Wish I could agree with your 1st comment, but I can’t. He starts shaky in important games regardless of OL production. Again, 2nd year stuff..


Fair enough, but can you tell me what games you felt he was shaky but the OL was good?  
 

He certainly feels pressure when he does have time later in those games

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Withstand the first two possessions the Texans get and limit to a FG or less. Their adrenaline and emotions will be running high w a home game and Watt returning. Run the the ball on offense to control the time and wear them down some. Complete 2 passes over 35 yards will loosen up their D. 

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I think you take away their running game by starting Shaq Lawson at LE. You leave TreDavious on an island with Hopkins and hope for the best, give Levi some help.

 

On offense we need to put up 28-31 points. Everyone needs to step up, Jonathan Joseph is pretty old so that’d be a matchup I’d look to exploit. Knox, Singletary, Brown, Beasley and Singletary all need to do their jobs, only through a team effort will we have a shot at winning this. I’d like to see Allen run the ball a lot. If his first 2-3 reads aren’t there, run.

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For all of the Bills "struggles" against the run, they are still ranked 10th in the NFL in run defense only allowing an average of 103.8 yards per game. It obviously has not been that bad over the course of a season.  In certain games and parts of games, sure...but you could pretty much say that about any team.  Gore gashed the Pats for 100+ yards on not very many carries in the first meeting but overall their run defense is ranked 5th so those are outliers not the norm.

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

For all of the Bills "struggles" against the run, they are still ranked 10th in the NFL in run defense only allowing an average of 103.8 yards per game. It obviously has not been that bad over the course of a season.  In certain games and parts of games, sure...but you could pretty much say that about any team.  Gore gashed the Pats for 100+ yards on not very many carries in the first meeting but overall their run defense is ranked 5th so those are outliers not the norm.

 

The problem with this is looking at the Bills average rush yds allowed is a bit of an "on average, the Duck is Dead" cartoon (shows a cluster of shots to the left and right of the duck, while the duck is untouched). 

 

We have had 3 games where our run D has been unable to shut the other team down:  the Eagles game was the worst (218 yds), followed by the Browns and the Patriots (147 and 143 rush yards).  Attempts to slow the bleeding left us vulnerable to the screen game passing.  We lost all 3.

 

The Texans have a good power run and good screen game.  We need to have dug deep and addressed this.

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The game will be determined by the combination of Bills being able to pressure Deshawn enough to affect the passing game , and a secondary that can prevent great receivers from wrecking the game. On offense, no one expects us to win a shootout, but Dabol must open the playbook and attack the Texans pass defense, which is their weakness. If we can win the turnover battle and make a few big plays on offense, I like our chances. 

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Just finished watching a ton of Texans games from this season.

 

Bills on Defense

 

This will be a matchup of a decent offense against a decent defense. Houston is a offense heavy team and we have relied on our defense all year. Our defense itself has morphed a bit from the first few games. While we were rarely blitzing early on, now we are more balanced and I think that will help us vs. the Texans' weak O-line. Also, Watson does tend to hold on to the ball - and consequently, I expect a sackapalooza. The Texans appear happy to live with a ton of sacks since every once in a while Watson has the ability to make the defense pay. I expect the Bills to be able to contain Watson.

 

The meaningful games the BIlls lost have all featured a ton of yards on the ground. There were two reasons for these debacles. One, while the Bills front 4 were pretty stout against the run in these games, the second level was atrocious with the LBs and safeties missing tackle after tackle - the three biggest culprits being Milano, Edmunds and Poyer. The second reason for people running on us successfully was because Milano and Edmunds  were unable to shed blocks. There is no doubt the Texans are going to try and establish the run. They have a two headed monster in Hyde and Johnson.  And their O-line plays the run better than the pass.

 

While Hyde gets the hype, I am actually more wary of Johnson. Mainly because Hyde is a downhill power runner and does not really make folks miss. So the plan should be to stack the box when Hyde is in to prevent him getting to the second level. If we dont Hyde will bleed us with 4-5 yards on every play. Of course, then we have to live with our secondary playing people one on one - and the one dimensional Texans relying on Watson make mistakes - I can live with this since Fuller is likely out and our secondary is really the true strength of the team.

 

Duke Johnson, on the other hand, really can dance. Here stacking the box can create some opportunities for big runs since Johnson is quite elusive and can exploit our tackling weakness either through running or through catching screen passes. So, when Johnson is in there, we should spread the field and have someone spy on Johnson all the time.

 

Coming to the secondary, Tre covering Hopkins when he lines up outside is a no-brainer. But what should we do when the Texans line him up in the slot? I believe, we should alternate Tre shadowing Hopkins with playing zone coverage on him with different personnel to keep the Texans honest.

 

Bills on Offense

 

This matchup is the weak link for both teams. Without Clowney and  with a rusty Watt I dont see an effective pass rush. I have seen Mercilus since his Illinois days and he is quite effective one-on-one but he really cant beat double teams.  

 

And oh, the Texans secondary is truly atrocious. I hope Daboll lets Allen throw it deep. With a weak Texans pass rush and Allen's scrambling ability, there is no reason for Allen to get rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds on dink and drop plays.  You dont go conservative when you have Brown and Beasley against the Texans secondary that has missed Matthieu all year. There is no Gilmore there.

 

Successfully going deep will open it up underneath for Singletary and Knox to feast on. Yes I am suggesting we rely on our franchise QB to deliver the win. He has had enough games now. If he cannot dissect a weak secondary while facing a relatively weak pass rush, maybe we need to rethink whether he is the franchise QB, no? Show some confidence in the lad.

 

I am quite sure the Texans will come out trying to stop Singletary. The only way to free him is by establishing the deep threat. 

 

 

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On 1/2/2020 at 6:15 AM, mattynh said:

Other than the obvious penalties and turnovers, from a tactical stand point I think stopping the Texans running game is key.   The games the Bills have struggled in are ones that the opponent was able to run the ball right at the Bills.  So if I was Houston, this is what I would try to do against this defense.   The Bills defense has struggled at times this season against the run.  Houston is 15th in passing yards and 9th in rushing yards so this also falls into what they do best on offense.   

 

Also, something to consider, half of the bills games this season came against defenses that ended in the top 10.    The Texans do not fit that mold!    the Texans Defense has given up a lot of yards this year.  They are ranked 28th overall, 30th against the pass and 25th against the run while giving up 19th highest points.  This could be a decent opportunity for the Bills offense and while JJ Watt returning is something to talk about I think we can also talk about how healthy he really is.

 

Go Bills

I think will be able to move the ball on offense and put up points , I think Texans will try to run the ball BUT will have to give up on the running game by trying to keep up with us 

AND that’s where our defense will come up HUGE and will get us couple of  turnovers 

GOOO BILLS !!!

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Josh Allen needs to scramble away from JJ Watt so he doesn't get stripped sacked. He's the ONLY QB ever that could stiff arm Watt into oblivion and not get his arm ripped off though but we don't want to take those chances....

 

However if he did plant Watt's face into a mouthful of dirt...

Phil-Dunphy.gif

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JJ Watt won't be worth concentrating on... The man hasn't played in months now and is likely slower, weaker, and with has less reflexive instincts than he'd have as a healthy all year type player.

 

Taking Watson into a place where he is under constant pressure by our defense, even when he hands the ball off, will force turnovers.

 

Minimize our mistakes while maximizing Texan mistakes

 

GO BILLS ... BE THE MORE PHYSICAL TEAM.

 

Buffalo at Kansas City next week

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