That Net Points Thing, End of Season Edition

[BillsVet]

18 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This comment sort of glazes over the meat of what happened in those games. They aren't saying the Bills, as a whole, did bad against playoff caliber teams.  They are saying the Bills offense played poorly against playoff caliber teams.  While that is true, it ignores that the Bills' defense (outside of the Phi game) played exceptional against playoff caliber teams. It also ignores that (again outside of Phi), the Bills were up against the best defenses in the league (Baltimore, NE, Tenn).  This matters because are next game is against Houston, who, unlike the playoff caliber teams we have played, has one of the worst defenses in the league.  A deeper analysis reveals the Bills have a great shot at this game.  After that? We are in trouble. But its the divisional round, every team is really good at the divisional round. 

 

I'm sorry, what?  We're talking about the offense, which for several reasons has been inadequate this season especially against better teams.  We're not talking about the defense, which did limit a largely weak slate of opponents.  

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

I'm sorry, what?  We're talking about the offense, which for several reasons has been inadequate this season especially against better teams.  We're not talking about the defense, which did limit a largely weak slate of opponents.  

 

 

 

Net points is determined by subtracting the points given up from the points scored.  It is basically offense - defense = net points.  Plus, the quote you posted said the Bills team as a whole did poorly in those games. That was and it wasn't true.  The Bills offense did poorly (not the defense).  I added the context that the Bills offense did poorly because those teams had stellar defenses, something Houston does not have. 

 

I'm sort of taken back by your response. Did you not read the OP or the quote you posted? 

[row_33]

14 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Damn Jameis...

 

30/30 man in this day and age

 

a total footballs move there

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by row_33

[BillsVet]

13 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Net points is determined by subtracting the points given up from the points scored.  It is basically offense - defense = net points.  Plus, the quote you posted said the Bills team as a whole did poorly in those games. That was and it wasn't true.  The Bills offense did poorly (not the defense).  I added the context that the Bills offense did poorly because those teams had stellar defenses, something Houston does not have. 

 

I'm sort of taken back by your response. Did you not read the OP or the quote you posted? 

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

 

Because scoring 14 per happened against teams with exceptional defenses, something Houston doesn't have.  Hence my original point - your argument ignores what happened in those games, and instead relies on generalities. 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I was just thinking about that yesterday... makes way too much sense, but don’t the colts own his rights? I imagine if it were to happen, it would have to be after the draft if they were to take a QB high. Any other situation and I doubt they’d be willing to trade him. 

Yeah.  I forgot that they own his rights with two years remaining on his contract.  Luck's still only 30 so if he was willing to go to any team besides the Colts the team would pry have to give up substantial draft capital.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BuffaloSol said:

Says "Net points thing" then sorts by points for, mildly infuriating.....

 

My goodness, some people are easily infuriated.  The chart was net points vs wins

 

Since you ask...

[dubs]

They are there on defense and will get there on offense. Rome wasn’t built in a day and it’s fair to say the whole team is ahead of schedule. 
 

Anyone who thinks this is McDermott or Beane’s end vision for the Offense is insane. This is much more of the early Pats, early Steelers (Ben) approach.  Offense will get there, I expect to see an improvement over the last month on Saturday. More like what we saw against the Cowboys. 

 

 

[BuffaloSol]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My goodness, some people are easily infuriated.  The chart was net points vs wins

 

Since you ask...

lol I was kind of kidding, but thank you.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

We’re basically a team without any weak spots. Schemes, preparation, and discipline give this group an edge and will beat all the mistake prone or talent poor teams. Aside from Tre White were lacking on game breaking talent though. An additional 2-3 big playmakers and an improved Josh Allen and this team becomes a perennial super bowl threat. 

Agreed. I keep seeing the posts flaming PFF because they don't rate Bills players as Pro Bowl worthy. I checked (the free part of PFF!) and the top rated Bills player is Micah Hyde - on their scale he's right around 80, which is in the high end (70-84) of "starter" quality, just below "Pro Bowl" quality (85-89) and well below "Elite" (90+). But here's the thing: other than Jordan Phillips, who's in the 50s (I think PFF hates his free-wheeling/willing to give up position to make an occasional big play style), everyone on defense rates reasonably well. And on offense, there is a weak link: it's the O line, with Spain and Ford grading poorly (and DiMarco too, but that's largely irrelevant as I believe his snap count is way down), but with everyone else again doing reasonably well or better. So it is a "whole is more than the sum of the parts" team without many stellar individual performers. And that's a pretty good place to be when you have money to bring in a real impact player or two next year.

[Bills Analyst]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Something doesn’t look right with your scatter plot.  It appears that the bills are to the right of 5.0 on th axis.  Yet in your table, the bills net points/game is 3.4.  Buffalo is also to th right of Tennessee and GB which have higher points/game than buffalo.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

Luck is never coming back.  His family is more important to him than the NFL.  

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah.  I forgot that they own his rights with two years remaining on his contract.  Luck's still only 30 so if he was willing to go to any team besides the Colts the team would pry have to give up substantial draft capital.

 

He’d easily be worth 2 firsts,  but I could see irsay being pretty pissed if he wanted to play elsewhere...

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed. I keep seeing the posts flaming PFF because they don't rate Bills players as Pro Bowl worthy. I checked (the free part of PFF!) and the top rated Bills player is Micah Hyde - on their scale he's right around 80, which is in the high end (70-84) of "starter" quality, just below "Pro Bowl" quality (85-89) and well below "Elite" (90+). But here's the thing: other than Jordan Phillips, who's in the 50s (I think PFF hates his free-wheeling/willing to give up position to make an occasional big play style), everyone on defense rates reasonably well. And on offense, there is a weak link: it's the O line, with Spain and Ford grading poorly (and DiMarco too, but that's largely irrelevant as I believe his snap count is way down), but with everyone else again doing reasonably well or better. So it is a "whole is more than the sum of the parts" team without many stellar individual performers. And that's a pretty good place to be when you have money to bring in a real impact player or two next year.

I’m not a PFF fan. To me they seem like Randy Marsh on SP creating a metric to make his penis seem average sized. The notable flaws are certainly Phillips, but also Tre White....

 

That said, this team just needs a couple guys to go over the top. I’m not enamored with Spain - He’s not athletic enough to pull and misses on stunts - but I think he may be replaced. Aside from that a top pass rusher and 1-2 playmakers on offense and this team will be in contention. 

[BarleyNY]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that ship has sailed.  Captain Andrew Luck has hung up his sidearm.

I will truly miss Captain Andrew Luck’s Twitter account 

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

that’s actually interesting. I could see that happening. 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

But Allen and the offense could do a little better. The scores were not there but really you could look at just a few plays each game and they would be. Maybe those few plays happen in the playoffs. 

[HardyBoy]

I think it's very important to not forget the number of high wind games the bills played in this year. I know this cuts both ways, but the defense is really good and is pretty consistent in not giving up points in great conditions.

 

I think if the Bills had started the season with the turnover rate they ended the season with, the pf number is a lot higher (the pa number would be lower too, because they set teams up in scoring position when they turned it over).

 

I feel like arguing this point: the Bills offense got significantly better over the course of the season, based largely, but not only, on the turnover numbers, but the insane winds hid that improvement. The other games that weren't windy were against the Pats and Steelers (top 5 defenses). 

Edited January 3, 2020 by HardyBoy

[leonbus23]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

Wow. Never thought of that. Luck with Godwin, Evans and Perriman would be a force. Arians knows Luck and offense. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, bmacdona said:

Something doesn’t look right with your scatter plot.  It appears that the bills are to the right of 5.0 on th axis.  Yet in your table, the bills net points/game is 3.4.  Buffalo is also to th right of Tennessee and GB which have higher points/game than buffalo.

 

 

Thanks!  Right you are .... I was fussing with the labels trying to get them to straight copy (which they didn't) and the Vikes and Bills got mixed.  Fixed now.  Appreciate the feedback.