Buffalo Bills & Drops

[Billsfan1972]

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is why some fans underestimate. Some qbs throw more catchable balls. I always feel drops is a stat that people want to lean on for Allen.  He has never been a particularly accurate since high school.  So either he consistently plays with terrible brick hand wrs or he doesn’t throw the most catchable balls.  I bet there are plenty of rocket armed qbs who have a lot of drops.  The difference between those guys and say Mahomes is Mahomes has excellent touch on his balls (sounds dirty).  

Seems like you’re passing the blame from Allen. I remember numerous crossing patterns where the ball is behind the receiver that they manage to get their hands on (but for any receiver going reaching behind while going in the opposite direction is extremely hard) that might count as a drop.  
 

allen has improved in the underneath passing area but he still isn’t consistently good enough. 

You always downplay or want to blame Allen & your comments are rubbish.  Drops are only on very catchable balls & many that should be caught, but are not will not be called a drop.  You're making things up.

 

Of course you would never credit Allen with a perfect pass, because that is not you agenda.

 

I posted the FACTS & you have come up with an analysis based on some made up observation that is not supported by facts.  Let me guess the pick 6 week one that hit Beasley in the chest was thrown too hard & hit Beasley closer to the 0 then the 1, so it was on Allen???  ?

 

The pass last week to Knox, caught with one hand is an example of as easy a one handed catch as a qb could make, as it fell into Knox's hand & chest in stride .....  

 

Allen has no blame on catchable balls, as that is the DEFINITION.....

 

Keep trying.....?

Edited December 14, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is why some fans underestimate. Some qbs throw more catchable balls. I always feel drops is a stat that people want to lean on for Allen.  He has never been a particularly accurate since high school.  So either he consistently plays with terrible brick hand wrs or he doesn’t throw the most catchable balls.  I bet there are plenty of rocket armed qbs who have a lot of drops.  The difference between those guys and say Mahomes is Mahomes has excellent touch on his balls (sounds dirty).  

Seems like you’re passing the blame from Allen. I remember numerous crossing patterns where the ball is behind the receiver that they manage to get their hands on (but for any receiver going reaching behind while going in the opposite direction is extremely hard) that might count as a drop.  
 

allen has improved in the underneath passing area but he still isn’t consistently good enough. 

So you’re more comfortable putting the difference in drop% between Mahomes and Allen down to unquantifiable ‘touch’ as opposed to Tyreek Hill vs John Brown and Kelce vs Knox...hmmm

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

I think some of it could be conditions, some Allen’s velocity, but the main thing is Allen is throwing to a slot WR, a #2 WR, a rookie RB and rookie TE as his main receiving options.  
 

I don’t know that it gets much better next year given the WR we land probably being a rookie as well, but hopefully the influx of talent will outweigh what may just be something we have to deal with for a while.  
 

This is also everyone’s first year A) with Allen and B) in the windy conditions of Buffalo. 

 

Yea I think it is just this. Beas and Brown are good not great players. They make some plays but they have always left some on the field too throughout their careers. 

 

Singletary and Knox are two guys who were not heavily featured in passing games at college. They both have high ceilings as receivers at their positions in my mind. I am not going to get on them too much and I will hope for improvement in 2020.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

I don't know.  Im back and forth on this.  Your posts are convincing me but then I remember what I thought in the first place.  I think it should be based on completable balls.  While I agree with what you are saying... I also agree with my own line of thinking which is... if you can't catch the ball in the first place then you can't drop the ball either.  You can only drop balls that you are able to catch.  Therefor to me, the number of drops should be added to the number of catches.  Then that number should divide into the number of drops.  I think you are artificially lowering the number.

 

So drops are a bit subjective.  Someone is looking at the ball and deciding whether or not it's catchable with "reasonable effort". 

"Completable balls" is another subjective judgement.

 

Myself, I like to keep things as objective as possible and look at relative drop rates, since all teams have their share of throw-aways and misfires.

[transplantbillsfan]

Yes. I posted last night that we have the highest drop  % in the NFL by far.

 

It's staggering, and in a one and done playoff scenario it's really going to matter.

 

Off the top of my head there were 3 blatant drops last week.

 

It was my reasoning with regard to needing to activate Duke Williams. He might not even be on this team next year, but he's the most reliable pass catcher this team has.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So you’re more comfortable putting the difference in drop% between Mahomes and Allen down to unquantifiable ‘touch’ as opposed to Tyreek Hill vs John Brown and Kelce vs Knox...hmmm

 

This could just be my perception but when I watch Mahomes, I see balls thrown with a lot of zip and also balls thrown for completions where Hill or Kelce haul it in and I think "that wouldn't be a completion on the Bills"

 

I don't think Arrowhead is exactly known for its friendly wind conditions

[Patrick Duffy]

9 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Yes. I posted last night that we have the highest drop  % in the NFL by far.

 

It's staggering, and in a one and done playoff scenario it's really going to matter.

 

Off the top of my head there were 3 blatant drops last week.

 

It was my reasoning with regard to needing to activate Duke Williams. He might not even be on this team next year, but he's the most reliable pass catcher this team has.

 I understand what you are basically saying, but in regard to the bold, I would think Brown is the most reliable, Beasley has had a few drops also and while I agree Duke has good hands and all I wouldn't necessarily say he is the "most" reliable the team has.

 

Unless you mean he is the most reliable between him, Foster and Mackenzie?

Edited December 14, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy

[Billsfan1972]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So drops are a bit subjective.  Someone is looking at the ball and deciding whether or not it's catchable with "reasonable effort". 

"Completable balls" is another subjective judgement.

 

Myself, I like to keep things as objective as possible and look at relative drop rates, since all teams have their share of throw-aways and misfires.

I'll disagree.  Weekly I'll state a ball is catchable & then check the next day & there was no drop.  They err on the side of caution & if you have to adjst, leave your feet, are covered tight or need to make an effort to catch the ball it is not a drop.  

 

Pretty much a drop is only one that hits you in the # or as you are running, with no defender within a yard (or three of you).  Dawson Knox & Singletary had easy drops last week last week was a drop.  I don't know, but pretty sure that the Beasley pass was not ruled a drop (though was a perfect pass).  

Edited December 14, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This could just be my perception but when I watch Mahomes, I see balls thrown with a lot of zip and also balls thrown for completions where Hill or Kelce haul it in and I think "that wouldn't be a completion on the Bills"

 

I don't think Arrowhead is exactly known for its friendly wind conditions

The Bills have three players ranked in the league’s top 24 for most drops according to- https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

That is a significant statistic even without considering our offense doesn’t pass at a very high frequency. People saying the Bills’ drops aren’t statistically significant are fooling themselves.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The Bills have three players ranked in the league’s top 24 for most drops according to- https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

That is a significant statistic even without considering our offense doesn’t pass at a very high frequency. People saying the Bills’ drops aren’t statistically significant are fooling themselves.

 

I'm not sure how to delve into "significance" in the statistical sense.

 

Just being practical - the ~10th best team in the NFL rocks around a 3.9% drop rate. 

 

The Bills have 422 passes, so their NFL-worst drop rate of 6.4% means 27 passes were dropped.  3.9% would mean ~16 passes dropped, or the Bills complete 11 additional passes ~1 per game. 

 

Depending upon down, distance and game situation, 1 additional completion per game could be sigificant, but of course, the drops are usually not spread out evenly like that.  It's the tightest games where we're battling hard that tend to have the most drops, and where 2-4 extra completions could make all the difference in turning the tide of the game.

 

[Watkins101]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Found this & alarming.....

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-stats?season=2019&week=0&category=RECEIVING

 

Knox 26 catches, 9 drops, Singletary 4 of 26, Beasley & Brown too with 4.  Knew it was bad, but downright pathetic.

 

28 drops and 252 completions so drop rate of 11.1%

 

Saints have 26, however 342 completions so 7.6%

 

Bucs 19 of 316 so 6.0%

I think it's unfair to make a comparison solely with two of the best receiving corps in the league.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Watkins101 said:

I think it's unfair to make a comparison solely with two of the best receiving corps in the league.

Are they though? I mean Michael Thomas is amazing but outside him I think you could argue Texans, Chiefs, Vikings, Browns, maybe even Lions have better overall pass catchers.  

[JaCrispy]

This ain’t Three Rivers Stadium...case closed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll disagree.  Weekly I'll state a ball is catchable & then check the next day & there was no drop.  They err on the side of caution & if you have to adjst, leave your feet, are covered tight or need to make an effort to catch the ball it is not a drop.  

 

Pretty much a drop is only one that hits you in the # or as you are running, with no defender within a yard (or three of you).  Dawson Knox & Singletary had easy drops last week last week was a drop.  I don't know, but bet that the Beasley pass was not ruled a drop (though was a perect pass).

 

I'm not exactly sure what you're disagreeing with here.  You bolded "drops are subjective" and then said you disagree, but what you describe is the essence of subjectivity - the drop scorers (it's not an official NFL stat) have a different judgement than you do.

 

My point is that I don't see how putting a subjective assessment like whether or not something is "catchable" into the denominator would make the drop % more useful.  Ruling out clear throw-aways that are scored as targets for being in someone's vicinity might or might not help.

[Watkins101]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Are they though? I mean Michael Thomas is amazing but outside him I think you could argue Texans, Chiefs, Vikings, Browns, maybe even Lions have better overall pass catchers.  

Outside Michael Thomas, yes their receiving corps is not special. However, with him, it is. He has nearly 30 receptions and 400 more yards than any player. They also have Kamara who is 20th in the league in receptions. 

[Don Otreply]

21 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

I think it's unfair to make a comparison solely with two of the best receiving corps in the league.

It is not unfair,   the aim is to be the best, not to be average, so you have to compare yourself with the best. 

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Don Otreply

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not exactly sure what you're disagreeing with here.  You bolded "drops are subjective" and then said you disagree, but what you describe is the essence of subjectivity - the drop scorers (it's not an official NFL stat) have a different judgement than you do.

 

My point is that I don't see how putting a subjective assessment like whether or not something is "catchable" into the denominator would make the drop % more useful.  Ruling out clear throw-aways that are scored as targets for being in someone's vicinity might or might not help.

No what I said is I've deemed a LOT MORE BALLS AS DROPS, then the official stats.  To be a drop it pretty much needs to be a feather pass where the receiver is wide open, doesn't have to extend, leave their feet or anticipate a hit.  Vs. Baltimore the only two deemed drops were SIngletary & Knox were were VERY EASY CATCHES....

5 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It is not unfair,   the aim is to be the best, not to be average, so you have to compare yourself with the best. 

 

Go Bills!!!

No Bills fans want to compare themselves to the worst & this is why we have the 300 yard arguments & such about the offense.  Forget being top 5 (or 10), three years @ the very bottom of passing stats (2016-2018) didn't phase some here......

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So you’re more comfortable putting the difference in drop% between Mahomes and Allen down to unquantifiable ‘touch’ as opposed to Tyreek Hill vs John Brown and Kelce vs Knox...hmmm

So you don’t think Mahomes is a better, more accurate passer than Allen?  It’s not a confidence that both of those players had the best seasons of their careers with Mahomes.  The problem with some fans and I believe the coaching staff is they try to make Allen into something he’s not.  He is never going to be a Brady pinpoint passer.  But he can still be really successful if you tailor the offense to him like Baltimore does with Jackson. Obviously, there’s risk but imo our offense should look more like Baltimore than prime NE. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So you don’t think Mahomes is a better, more accurate passer than Allen?  It’s not a confidence that both of those players had the best seasons of their careers with Mahomes.  The problem with some fans and I believe the coaching staff is they try to make Allen into something he’s not.  He is never going to be a Brady pinpoint passer.  But he can still be really successful if you tailor the offense to him like Baltimore does with Jackson. Obviously, there’s risk but imo our offense should look more like Baltimore than prime NE. 

That’s not what was being discussed. We were talking specifically about drops, drop%, and catches. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

That’s not what was being discussed. We were talking specifically about drops, drop%, and catches. 

And I believe a big part of the problem with drops is Allen with sometimes lack of touch.  It also shows up on YAC with balls the receivers can’t catch in stride.  Brady has a rag arm now but he puts the ball where guys can catch and run.  
 

It’s a problem with guys with big arms.  Hard to just turn it down.  Losman had a missile but couldn’t calm it down enough.  I think Allen is better but he’s more of the problem with drops than you are willing to say.