dave mcbride Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Yup. I see DVOA and I keep away you do realize that they're all in the top six for points and yards allowed, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 This is perfect as they enter the playoffs. I would not want it any other way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 They will be fine. I expect 2/3 wins in this stretch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Dallas has the #1 pass offense in the league. I think the Bills certainly have a good chance to beat the Steelers, but it's worth noting that DVOA actually factors in quality of opponent, which raw yardage/points measures don't. Dallas is a house of cards. The weather in that game was horrible. And the Pats got some help from on high (not deity, but good ol Al.) I know that DVOA accounts for quality of opponent, but it's still a joke, in my opinion. Allen went from like 30th to 15th after 1 game. No statistical model should allow for that large of a jump. The problem with all of these rating systems is that they don't just look at raw data... They make jumps. Like PFF's "Turnover worthy plays" they add subjective material into objective analysis. I don't know much about DVOA personally (so maybe they do not do that and I am incorrect) but nothing I've ever seen from them tells me they're a consistently reliable source. Here is some stats that I will bend to fit my narrative, as all do. (though I think these past the eye test) Over the last five games, the Steelers are 4-1 with a score margins of: +5, -14, +6, +7, +6 These 5 opponents are (as of right now) 19th Average yards per game, and 21st average ppg offensively. Only one of them ranks top 15 in both DPPG, and PYPG (The Rams) My take (agree or disagree) - Good defense playing ***** offenses, aided by horrible defenses on the other side = looking like an elite defense. I think this is a argument that transcends these 5 games as well. As for the Patriots. They're 2-3 in the last 5 games against opponents who are, on average, 7th in YPG, and 8th in PPG. It's worth noting here that their two victories came in bad weather and were close games. Before that 5 game stretch, they were 8-0. In those 8 games they faced against offenses with an average rank of 27th YPG, and 26th PPG. All that to say, now that they have faced top end competition, their "best ever" defense has been exposed surrendering 37, 28, and 23 points in losing efforts. (29ppg) I'm not discrediting these two defenses, and I am sure that they will give our offense issues (specifically since our offense has been up and down) but I think both of these units pale in comparison to the Ravens, who have chewed up and spit out some of the best competition the NFL has to offer, and who just gave us fits- yet we moved the ball well after the half and were one play away. It's also worth noting the need to view these games as whole entities- they might have a defense that is as good as ours (maybe), but both of those offenses are playing very poorly lately and our defense will likely handle them well, which will affect how good their defenses can be against us. Edited December 12, 2019 by whatdrought 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Of course not. Steeler fans don't fear any opponent. they have been solid in giving the best effort possible for 45+ years now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, row_33 said: they have been solid in giving the best effort possible for 45+ years now Can you imagine having 3 coaches over the entire course of your life, and being a good/great football team the entire time? How does that even happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Dallas is a house of cards. The weather in that game was horrible. And the Pats got some help from on high (not deity, but good ol Al.) I know that DVOA accounts for quality of opponent, but it's still a joke, in my opinion. Allen went from like 30th to 15th after 1 game. No statistical model should allow for that large of a jump. The problem with all of these rating systems is that they don't just look at raw data... They make jumps. Like PFF's "Turnover worthy plays" they add subjective material into objective analysis. I don't know much about DVOA personally (so maybe they do not do that and I am incorrect) but nothing I've ever seen from them tells me they're a consistently reliable source. Here is some stats that I will bend to fit my narrative, as all do. (though I think these past the eye test) Over the last five games, the Steelers are 4-1 with a score margins of: +5, -14, +6, +7, +6 These 5 opponents are (as of right now) 19th Average yards per game, and 21st average ppg offensively. Only one of them ranks top 15 in both DPPG, and PYPG (The Rams) My take (agree or disagree) - Good defense playing ***** offenses, aided by horrible defenses on the other side = looking like an elite defense. I think this is a argument that transcends these 5 games as well. As for the Patriots. They're 2-3 in the last 5 games against opponents who are, on average, 7th in YPG, and 8th in PPG. It's worth noting here that their two victories came in bad weather and were close games. Before that 5 game stretch, they were 8-0. In those 8 games they faced against offenses with an average rank of 27th YPG, and 26th PPG. All that to say, now that they have faced top end competition, their "best ever" defense has been exposed surrendering 37, 28, and 23 points in losing efforts. (29ppg) I'm not discrediting these two defenses, and I am sure that they will give our offense issues (specifically since our offense has been up and down) but I think both of these units pale in comparison to the Ravens, who have chewed up and spit out some of the best competition the NFL has to offer, and who just gave us fits- yet we moved the ball well after the half and were one play away. It's also worth noting the need to view these games as whole entities- they might have a defense that is as good as ours (maybe), but both of those offenses are playing very poorly lately and our defense will likely handle them well, which will affect how good their defenses can be against us. good points. And if we don't beat the Steelers, we are not even close to having a serviceable offense, and I hope Daboll gets a HC job in the offseason so he's gone. The Cards moved the ball on PIT prior to Murray becoming INT prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, whatdrought said: Can you imagine having 3 coaches over the entire course of your life, and being a good/great football team the entire time? How does that even happen. i counted roughly 5 bad seasons since 1972, a few on here called me everything but a Child of God for suggesting they'd contend even with lost talent and early injuries in 2019... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: good points. And if we don't beat the Steelers, we are not even close to having a serviceable offense, and I hope Daboll gets a HC job in the offseason so he's gone. The Cards moved the ball on PIT prior to Murray becoming INT prone. Yep. I honestly don't see why we can't go 3-0 to finish the season. I'm anticipating 2-1 (loss to NE, of course) but I think we've shown at various times that we have the juice, we just don't squeeze it properly. 3 minutes ago, row_33 said: i counted roughly 5 bad seasons since 1972, a few on here called me everything but a Child of God for suggesting they'd contend even with lost talent and early injuries in 2019... man, I gotta take the L on that... I thought Tomlin was done, that he had wasted years of having one of the best offensive talent groups ever, and that he would be fired this year. Now I'm convinced he's actually a damn good coach and the idiots on the team were holding themselves back. Edited December 12, 2019 by whatdrought 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 i don't recall you were one of the bozos attacking me on here... i agreed things looked rough for the Steelers, but it's the ******ing Steelers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Can you imagine having 3 coaches over the entire course of your life, and being a good/great football team the entire time? How does that even happen. So, sort of like a 6 year old Bills fan.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, row_33 said: i don't recall you were one of the bozos attacking me on here... i agreed things looked rough for the Steelers, but it's the ******ing Steelers.... No, but I was giving my dad (a lifelong steelers fan) ***** about how they were gonna fall apart sans Bell and Brown and how Tomlin would be fired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: Hope you're right, but it's still a tough stretch. Pitt has been playing lights out on D lately. What do you think they are going to be able to do against us as a team averaging only 290 yards a game on offense? Good luck Hodges is all I can say. We have made a whole lot better look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, whatdrought said: No, but I was giving my dad (a lifelong steelers fan) ***** about how they were gonna fall apart sans Bell and Brown and how Tomlin would be fired. i figured the Steelers would find a way The Browns would suck despite being anointed SB favourites (WHY"????) and the Bills would pull their patented 6-10 happy with being wrong in 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: you do realize that they're all in the top six for points and yards allowed, right? Stats are often manipulated and don't tell the truth. Give me a stat that indicates WINS or LOSSES and I'll pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Dallas is a house of cards. The weather in that game was horrible. And the Pats got some help from on high (not deity, but good ol Al.) I know that DVOA accounts for quality of opponent, but it's still a joke, in my opinion. Allen went from like 30th to 15th after 1 game. No statistical model should allow for that large of a jump. T His high was 24th in QB DVOA, which he reached after the Cowboys game. Not sure what you're referring to - maybe ESPN's QBR? 15 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Stats are often manipulated and don't tell the truth. Give me a stat that indicates WINS or LOSSES and I'll pay attention. ?? -- measuring, say, a defense by team wins and losses won't tell you much if the offense and ST are terrible. 26 minutes ago, matter2003 said: What do you think they are going to be able to do against us as a team averaging only 290 yards a game on offense? Good luck Hodges is all I can say. We have made a whole lot better look bad. If they were playing in Buffalo, I would be very confident. The fact that they are playing in Pitt, that Pitt is on a big run, and that Pitt's D now has elite-level personnel with the addition of Fitzpatrick makes me worried. I still think the Bills are the better team and should win, but since they've historically struggled quite badly in Pitt, I think it's a toss-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franco_92 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 It's gonna make Houston's defense feel like a high school defense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: His high was 24th in QB DVOA, which he reached after the Cowboys game. Not sure what you're referring to - maybe ESPN's QBR? my mistake- I was thinking of this: So a 14 point jump (which, out of 32 is essentially half of the data points) in a two game span... Not saying I understand it all, but that's a whole lot of statistical variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: His high was 24th in QB DVOA, which he reached after the Cowboys game. Not sure what you're referring to - maybe ESPN's QBR? ?? -- measuring, say, a defense by team wins and losses won't tell you much if the offense and ST are terrible. If they were playing in Buffalo, I would be very confident. The fact that they are playing in Pitt, that Pitt is on a big run, and that Pitt's D now has elite-level personnel with the addition of Fitzpatrick makes me worried. I still think the Bills are the better team and should win, but since they've historically struggled quite badly in Pitt, I think it's a toss-up. Pittsburgh's O is not good. We are a better team, and we will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, matter2003 said: Pittsburgh's O is not good. We are a better team, and we will win. I really hope you're confidence is warranted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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