Revisiting my Allen scouting report

[MDH]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We all know he can chuck it 90 yards downfield. The problem is on these deep throws there's zero launch angle. No arch, no trajectory, nothing. Just flat line drives. Hitting 102 on the gun means nothing if you can spot your offspeed......

 

Yep, if you don't throw the ball with arch it has to be pin point. Loft it a little and it gives the WR a chance to adjust and get under it.

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

 

I agree with the quoted material and your overall premise about Allen needing to learn to put more touch on the ball. I just don't agree that it makes him a "thrower of the football" instead of a passer. I've never heard of lack of touch being used like that before.

 

To me, someone who is just a thrower of the football is someone who is not naturally gifted as a passer. Their "arm talent" isn't high. Having a strong arm and lack of touch, in my opinion, does not put you in that category. I think Josh has a ton of arm talent and is a natural thrower, he just needs to clean up his mechanics and make better decisions. But that's fine, we can disagree.

Throwers are guys with high arm talent but lack of touch and speed variability. Throwers are the opposite of pitchers, and pitchers equate with passers.  To wit: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-pitcher-vs-the-thrower-a-garrett-richards-tale/

[Jauronimo]

48 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

Yep, if you don't throw the ball with arch it has to be pin point. Loft it a little and it gives the WR a chance to adjust and get under it.

Flatter trajectory gives the DB an advantage too.  No way to defend those Russell Wilson or Tyrod moonshots that fall right in the basket.

[John from Riverside]

This is why he was a project but worth the pick

 

A ton of talent....the character and drive to realize it

[bills11]

13 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

How effortless the ball comes out of his hands isn't a indicator if he is a thrower or passer

 

John elway was a notorious thrower of the football when he came out and not a passer

 

Passing the football is about finesse and touch ... Throwing is about arm strength and threading the Needle

 

There is a difference

 

Allen is a natural spinner of the football that is without question,  but passing is about finesse and touch

 

This and your op is spot on..that's the one refinement missing from his game right now ..elway was very similar as a young qb he would throw every pass like a missile he learned with experience how to change speeds and vary velocity..Josh just needs reps to continue to refine his mechanics..and that comes with experience...he tends to get jacked up during home games as well I've noticed on the road his feet seem more calm.  Not every qb comes out as polished as Andrew luck ..it took Brees nearly 4 years to put everything together in SD 

[warrior9]

I tend to disagree that Josh only throws at one speed... this year. He's improved a ton on that but uses his arm strength when need be. Example being the drop between cover two against Miami when he threw a ball to JB for a TD and my jaw dropped at the velocity he put on that thing. 

 

Example of the contrary is his crossing route to Duke (i can't remember which game) when he floated it over the defender and placed in perfectly... He's NOT making that throw last year. Many of his throws to Beas(in the short game) seem to be fixated on a strength to get him the ball, not bullets. 

 

Even if you look at last week.. the ball that Knox brought in with 1 hand and the ball to Beas down the sideline on the run (that was an INCREDIBLE throw, btw), those throws had arch, spin, and dropped perfectly and were not ropes. 

 

Accuracy not withstanding, I believe he has progressed tremendously on varying his throwing power. 

[QB Bills]

Allen has all the tools to be a really good QB in this league. And I think Daboll is a good coordinator for him. But I'm worried that McDermott's lack of balls is what's going to ruin his development. You can see he's been coached to not underthrow deep balls so there's no risk of an interception. What's the saying? To make an omelette, you have to crack some eggs? McDermott needs to play the long game here and take the bad with the good. Right now, it seems his plan is to okay the occasional overthrow to "keep the defense honest" with no real intention to complete it. In an ideal world he should have nothing to do with the offense whatsoever.

Edited December 12, 2019 by QB Bills

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

I tend to disagree that Josh only throws at one speed... this year. He's improved a ton on that but uses his arm strength when need be. Example being the drop between cover two against Miami when he threw a ball to JB for a TD and my jaw dropped at the velocity he put on that thing. 

 

Example of the contrary is his crossing route to Duke (i can't remember which game) when he floated it over the defender and placed in perfectly... He's NOT making that throw last year. Many of his throws to Beas(in the short game) seem to be fixated on a strength to get him the ball, not bullets. 

 

Even if you look at last week.. the ball that Knox brought in with 1 hand and the ball to Beas down the sideline on the run (that was an INCREDIBLE throw, btw), those throws had arch, spin, and dropped perfectly and were not ropes. 

 

Accuracy not withstanding, I believe he has progressed tremendously on varying his throwing power. 

 

30 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Allen has all the tools to be a really good QB in this league. And I think Daboll is a good coordinator for him. But I'm worried that McDermott's lack of balls is what's going to ruin his development. You can see he's been coached to not underthrow deep balls so there's no risk of an interception. What's the saying? To make an omelette, you have to crack some eggs? McDermott needs to play the long game here and take the bad with the good. Right now, it seems his plan is to okay the occasional overthrow to "keep the defense honest" with no real intention to complete it. In an ideal world he should have nothing to do with the offense whatsoever.

Exactly the points I'm making.  Progress could be quicker if McD didn't think every game should be 17-13 and Daboll is clueless when it comes to rhythm and the first two drives with strong winds & gusts showed that.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

I tend to disagree that Josh only throws at one speed... this year. He's improved a ton on that but uses his arm strength when need be. Example being the drop between cover two against Miami when he threw a ball to JB for a TD and my jaw dropped at the velocity he put on that thing. 

 

Example of the contrary is his crossing route to Duke (i can't remember which game) when he floated it over the defender and placed in perfectly... He's NOT making that throw last year. Many of his throws to Beas(in the short game) seem to be fixated on a strength to get him the ball, not bullets. 

 

Even if you look at last week.. the ball that Knox brought in with 1 hand and the ball to Beas down the sideline on the run (that was an INCREDIBLE throw, btw), those throws had arch, spin, and dropped perfectly and were not ropes. 

 

Accuracy not withstanding, I believe he has progressed tremendously on varying his throwing power. 

Again i never said he hasn't improved his touch. You bring up the touch pass to Duke which was amazing, it's also one of the few real touch passes he has thrown this year...  

 

Rewatching every throw Josh has made this season that throw is definitely not the norm.. he still does prefer heaters at 10 yards to 40 yards but has gotten better with touch

 

The difference is his 10 yard heater went from 67 mph to 58-60 ... But that is still a heater , not a finesse touch pass at all

Edited December 12, 2019 by Buffalo716

[warrior9]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Again i never said he hasn't improved his touch. You bring up the touch pass to Duke which was amazing, it's also one of the few real touch passes he has thrown this year...  

 

Rewatching every throw Josh has made this season that throw is definitely not the norm.. he still does prefer heaters at 10 yards to 40 yards 

 

The difference is his 10 yard heater went form 67 mph to 60 ... But that is still a heater

Right, your OP just points out he's a one speed thrower. I'm not suggesting you haven't mentioned he's improved. 

 

I don't think those are as out of the norm as you think. If you watch him throw to Bease, or McKenzie, or Brown on crossing routes, he's throwing VERY catchable balls. Even the ball that Knox dropped in his hand, wasn't a bullet. The screen to Singletary was not either.  I don't think it's an issue. Last year, I saw it as 100% the issue. 

 

I think as Josh gets more playing time and the game "slows down" he's going to keep improving in this aspect. He's really only 3-4 years removed from JUCO

Edited December 12, 2019 by warrior9

[Buffalo716]

17 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Right, your OP just points out he's a one speed thrower. I'm not suggesting you haven't mentioned he's improved. 

 

I don't think those are as out of the norm as you think. If you watch him throw to Bease, or McKenzie, or Brown on crossing routes, he's throwing VERY catchable balls. Even the ball that Knox dropped in his hand, wasn't a bullet. The screen to Singletary was not either.  I don't think it's an issue. Last year, I saw it as 100% the issue. 

 

I think as Josh gets more playing time and the game "slows down" he's going to keep improving. 

First I never said he throws 1 speed. Not 1 QB alive throws the same speed every ball.

 

I said he is akin to a flamthrower in baseball who hardly changes speed and relies in his overpowering stuff more often than not .. and he does

 

And throwing hard doesn't mean a ball is uncatchable. They are pro WRs. Elway and Favre broke fingers regularly cus their arm strength was so good... And Josh spins It like that

 

There is nothing wrong with a bullet, it's Josh's and Elways best trait... 

 

Again he might take it from 65-55 but it's still a bullet. He isn't throwing 30 mph floaters regularly.. he did on that Duke throw!

 

And yes all this stuff comes with repetition and time.. Joshs touch should be even much improved next season

 

 

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That fumble was NOT on Josh.  Blindside hit, 9.5 out of 10 QB fumble.  There is plenty to blame Josh for in the game (I have posted some on this elsewhere) but this play series isn't part of it.

 

If you have the Athletic, read Turner's excellent article on how Martindale dissected our O-line.  Turner does a pretty good job, as far as I can tell, on explaining what went wrong with the pass protection on that play. 

 

Basically, Martindale gave Josh a look to which the correct response was to slide protections right.  They slid right.  Knox was in high likelihood supposed to have Singletary helping him with Judon.  Instead, one of the rushers (not sure who - DE?) stunted to the L, and Singletary correctly came across to pick him up, but that leaves Knox 1:1 with Judon.   Of note is that Ford was also beaten like a drum on that play, which Cover1 doesn't point out, but in fact if Judon doesn't get there, Bowser would have.  The difference of course is that Allen could have seen him coming and would have had a prayer to cover up the ball.

 

I really don't like that play design where Allen is having so much trouble with pressure AND has already missed several deep balls.  Beasley was supposed to be the hot option on this play, but he was held (uncalled) and unavailable.   We're in 11, Singletary and Knox stayed home to block, while McKittrick (I think) and Brown go deep on routes that need time to develop.   There were other plays where Allen did have quick options available but this wasn't one of them.  I think a more experienced QB might have chucked the ball in the dirt or OOB (takes a gun, but Allen has a gun) in the direction of Beasley and hoped to draw the ref's attention to the hold, BUT, that would have its own dangers against a truly athletic front 7 like Baltimore's.    Perhaps someone else can comment.  It was 3rd and 8. 

 

While Daboll is incorrectly taking undeserved heat for not leaving Josh options that were actually there on many plays, this was one series where I truly disliked the play calling. 

 

First down was Gore up the middle for 2 yds.    What's the Point?  Singletary just had a rest while Baltimore had the ball. 

 

Second and 8 was a fake Jet Sweep (to BEASLEY!)/Fake Handoff to Gore with Foster(I think) and Brown both downfield (both being held I believe).  Beasley is quick and able to make sharp cuts and juke guys, but he's not blindingly fast like Foster or McKittrick.  I think the idea was a secondary route concept to Beasley, but it's (IMO) just a strange design and call for the situation.  First, it's one of those Dabollisms I hate - "I know, we'll do something they'll never expect like use personnel who aren't the best choices to run this type of play!  That'll trick 'em!"  Second, by nature a fake reverse/fake handoff design is "eye candy" designed to get Baltimore's D to hesitate and diagnose.  The Baltimore D at that point was not concerned about little details like diagnosing the play.  They were revving their engines.  They figure they'll all get in the backfield fast then slam the hell out of whoever turns out to have the ball.  Allen makes a dangerous but decent throw to Bease as he's being hit (you can see how completely Allen trusts Beasley, but I'm not sure Beasley has his head turned quickly), well-defensed and knocked away by a leaping Humphrey.

 

Not at all a fan of Daboll's play calls on that series.  If nothing else, we were subbing personnel - we subbed Singletary for Gore that down.  Why not sub in Kroft or Smith for Knox?  Knox is game and developing decently, but Smith > Kroft >>> Knox as blockers.   Daboll designs really good plays sometimes, then other times when I watch the all-22 (my eyes aren't fast enough to see all that on broadcast) I'm yelling at the monitor.  He's just too freakin' cute sometimes, both in personnel choice and in design and he just can't seem to adjust fast enough to what the "Jimmies and Joes" are actually able to execute.

 

If anyone has a reasoned contrary view about what the play design on this series is supposed to accomplish and why it was a good choice, please let me know.

 

Allen would have been sacked something like 18 times if he weren't 1) so freakin' athletic and able to escape 2) pulling the trigger on throws like that 2nd down.

 

 

 

 

And again to your point - if you can go back and look at the several long throws Allen *has* successfully completed I think you'll agree 1) he had time and space to set up properly on those throws 2) he appears (to me anyway) to be using proper passing technique with his lower body and follow-through, or at least closer to it.

I don't think the fumble is really on Allen at all. I also think 9-10 QBs fumble with that hit he took... Good scheming left Judon 1on1 and he capitalized

 

Daboll really is a week to week guy rn. Some weeks his gameplans are better than others..  I really do think he gets too cute at times and he doenst have enough people plays. 

 

Sometimes the simplest solution is to get the ball in your playmakers hands and let them do what they do, he doesnt do that Enough imo

 

I also think Allen's athleticism and escapability has nullified dozens of other sacks this season

Edited December 12, 2019 by Buffalo716

[warrior9]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

First I never said he throws 1 speed. Not 1 QB alive throws the same speed every ball.

 

I said he is akin to a flamthrower in baseball who hardly changes speed and relies in his overpowering stuff more often than not .. and he does

 

And throwing hard doesn't mean a ball is uncatchable. They are pro WRs. Elway and Favre broke fingers regularly cus their arm strength was so good... And Josh spins It like that

 

There is nothing wrong with a bullet, it's Josh's and Elways best trait... 

 

Again he might take it from 65-55 but it's still a bullet. He isn't throwing 30 mph floaters regularly

 

 

I don't think the fumble is really on Allen at all. I also think 9-10 QBs fumble with that hit he took... Good scheming left Judon 1on1 and he capitalized

 

Daboll really is a week to week guy rn. Some weeks his gameplans are better than others..  I really do think he gets too cute at times and he doenst have enough people plays. 

 

Sometimes the simplest solution is to get the ball in your playmakers hands and let them do what they do, he doesnt do that Enough imo

 

I also think Allen's athleticism and escapability has nullified dozens of other sacks this season

I mean, "hardly changing speeds" -- one speed thrower, pretty synonymous since as you pointed out, no one throws the same speed for every throw. Didn't know you would take that super literal.

 

So do you want him to throw 30 mph floaters? If throwing bullets isn't a bad thing, I'm trying to figure out your vantage point on his speed in all honesty. 

 

I just don't see his speed as an issue.... really at all. 

Edited December 12, 2019 by warrior9

[Buffalo716]

12 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

I mean, "hardly changing speeds" -- one speed thrower, pretty synonymous since as you pointed out, no one throws the same speed for every throw. Didn't know you would take that super literal.

 

So do you want him to throw 30 mph floaters? If throwing bullets isn't a bad thing, I'm trying to figure out your vantage point on his speed in all honesty. 

I love his arm and his velocity. Those 30 mph touch passes (shouldn't have said floater) come in handy like on that Duke pass.. that was one his top 5 most beautiful throws of the season... And that's what touch passes are, beautiful

 

But in the NFL between 10-20 yards where the windows are tight you need to be able to gun it in. And Josh can spin it like few others alive... And that will be great for his career

 

Again this WHOLE THREAD was in premise to his deep ball. Where when he's been off , so has his mechanics and touch. Which are correctable

 

Again I used Wyoming games through the NFL and when he's missed deep it's usually cus bad lower body mechanics and throwing a laser without much touch

 

Also to your first point, hardly changes speeds is not the same as one speed thrower .. because I did recognize Allen has learned some touch and does use it, he just prefers a heater

Edited December 12, 2019 by Buffalo716

[fergie's ire]

I like the analogy to baseball.  Allen has always had a very accurate fastball, but struggles with the off speed stuff. It's why the lazy "inaccurate" label has always bugged me.

 

Now, I haven't looked at his mechanics carefully, nor do I know enough to really assess them.  However, I have noticed something that is promising....but puzzling.  If someone doesn't have great accuracy...maybe like Tyrod who had ballpark accuracy...you can't expect the thrower to put the ball in exactly the right spot.  It's going to be just a bit off...sometimes left, sometimes right...sometimes long and sometimes short.  My understanding is that is the problem with bad mechanics.  It's impossible to reproduce the exact same throw every time.  It's like a free throw shooter (to use another sports analogy) who needs to use exactly the same motion every time so the ball goes exactly the same place.  With bad mechanics, I would expect Josh's throws to be all over the place.

 

The weird thing is that doesn't seem to be the case.  He seems to reproduce exactly the same throw almost every single time.  It's directly over the receiver, five yards too deep.  With such a consistent throw, it would seem to be easy to adjust...and then he should be able to reproduce accurate shows.  It should be as simple as "Josh, aim five yards behind the receiver."  Another baseball analogy.  It's like the homerun that Aaraon frickin' Boone hit to beat the Red Sox in the playoffs years ago.  He kept pulling the ball foul and someone (I think it was Joe Torre) told him, "Hit the ball back up the middle. Try to hit the center field fence."  He did, and ended up hitting it just inside the foul pole.  Again, seems weird that this adjustment hasn't been made already, but maybe he is afraid of throwing an interception?

Edited December 12, 2019 by fergie's ire

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I love his arm and his velocity. Those 30 mph touch passes (shouldn't have said floater) come in handy like on that Duke pass.. that was one his top 5 most beautiful throws of the season... And that's what touch passes are, beautiful

 

But in the NFL between 10-20 yards where the windows are tight you need to be able to gun it in. And Josh can spin it like few others alive... And that will be great for his career

 

Again this WHOLE THREAD was in premise to his deep ball. Where when he's been off , so has his mechanics and touch. Which are correctable

 

Again I used Wyoming games through the NFL and when he's missed deep it's usually cus bad lower body mechanics and throwing a laser without much touch

 

Also to your first point, hardly changes speeds is not the same as one speed thrower .. because I did recognize Allen has learned some touch and does use it, he just prefers a heater

 

 

...with the right teachers (Palmer & Dorsey), it's all part of the development and maturation process.......I think he's made strides in his shorter game......with his size, speed, agility, cannon arm and wanting to do it all for the team (WE not ME), not sure how he tempers the adrenaline pump on game day...but it will come IMO.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Daboll really is a week to week guy rn. Some weeks his gameplans are better than others..  I really do think he gets too cute at times and he doenst have enough people plays. 

Sometimes the simplest solution is to get the ball in your playmakers hands and let them do what they do, he doesnt do that Enough imo

 

Yes, exactly.

 

I picture Daboll as sitting up in his office late at night saying to himself: the Defense will expect a jet sweep from Foster, so we'll have Beasley run it, they've never seen that before and it will give them a second of pause and then we'll fake a handoff to Gore while there's a secondary route option to Beasley that will let him run up the sideline for 10-15 yds

 

Meanwhile Martindale's defense is thinking:

1) line up

2) SIC 'EM

 

I think Daboll's best games are those where McDermott has time to sit down with him and a red pencil and say "look, Brian, take it from me, that's not how the DC thinks.... Which I don't think he did last week.

 

If you have time, take a look at the mechanics on Allen's nice deep throw to Brown in the 2nd Phins game and his nice TD to Brown in the Broncs game and LMK what you think of the mechanics