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NFL Next Gen Stats - 6 Most Improved Players of 2019


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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was talking specifically about receivers (though include Knox in that). There were some throws to Singletary but again there was a reason they were trying to go deep. It was what Baltimore was giving them. There was the odd makeable throw - but even if Josh throws that ball to Knox it is a minimal gain. The Ravens took away those throws very well all day.

 

LOL Gunner.  Knox is at least 6 yds past the LOS, and giving his "angry run" abilities I give him a couple more.  Either way, it's 1st down; he gains 6, we have 2 more downs to get 4, instead of 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  That's the whole point of taking what the defense gives you underneath; you might not break the big play, but you might persuade them they need to cover some folks better and back off the 0 Blitz.

 

Your claim was the Poe-Birds were giving Allen no choice but to throw deep.  I show you two examples where Allen had alternatives including 2 WR.  Allen had jailbreaks at times and no time to throw; other times he had a hot option on the blitz, but the blitz surprised him and he didn't take it.  At other times, he had time for those short passes and they were there.  Not just "odd makeable throws".

 

Allen said in his presser that he needed to complete more passes "early in the game".  That's because the passes were there, and he knew it. 

 

Jim Kubiak on TBN (paywall, think there's a trial) points out several other plays where Allen had receivers open underneath.  He knows it too.

 

So there we have it.  We have screen captures; we have what Josh Allen said, we have former QB and QB coach writing for The Buffalo News saying it. 

 

I was joking with someone that I knew you wouldn't acknowledge my point.  He asked if I'd turned purple yet; "no, because I was never holding my breath"

 

Bonus screen capture: 2nd and 10 with less than a minute in the first half at the Balt 36.   Allen is looking for a deep throw and takes a 7 yd sack.   That's Beasley on the rt hash at the 32 yd line, McKensie on the L at the 30, and Singletary with no one within 5 yds of him out on the 41. 

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On 3rd and 17, Allen hits Beasley for a 4 yd pass which goes for 14 (and we kick a FG).   If it didn't have to go an extra 7 yds, maybe we get 7.

 

C'est la Vie.

 

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9 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am not sure this is something he can scheme.  Allen needs to identify hot reads better, make sure people are in the right protections up front to allow him to know where the pressure will be coming from in most cases, and ultimately be able to make them pay for blitzing by hitting deep balls against singled up receivers.  The way you get teams to stop blitzing is to make them pay for it.  

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

LOL Gunner.  Knox is at least 6 yds past the LOS, and giving his "angry run" abilities I give him a couple more.  Either way, it's 1st down; he gains 6, we have 2 more downs to get 4, instead of 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  That's the whole point of taking what the defense gives you underneath; you might not break the big play, but you might persuade them they need to cover some folks better and back off the 0 Blitz.

 

Your claim was the Poe-Birds were giving Allen no choice but to throw deep.  I show you two examples where Allen had alternatives including 2 WR.  Allen had jailbreaks at times and no time to throw; other times he had a hot option on the blitz, but the blitz surprised him and he didn't take it.  At other times, he had time for those short passes and they were there.  Not just "odd makeable throws".

 

Allen said in his presser that he needed to complete more passes "early in the game".  That's because the passes were there, and he knew it. 

 

Jim Kubiak on TBN (paywall, think there's a trial) points out several other plays where Allen had receivers open underneath.  He knows it too.

 

So there we have it.  We have screen captures; we have what Josh Allen said, we have former QB and QB coach writing for The Buffalo News saying it. 

 

I was joking with someone that I knew you wouldn't acknowledge my point.  He asked if I'd turned purple yet; "no, because I was never holding my breath"

 

Bonus screen capture: 2nd and 10 with less than a minute in the first half at the Balt 36.   Allen is looking for a deep throw and takes a 7 yd sack.   That's Beasley on the rt hash at the 32 yd line, McKensie on the L at the 30, and Singletary with no one within 5 yds of him out on the 41. 

image.thumb.png.57398b1897bdca617960d2a44334f022.png

On 3rd and 17, Allen hits Beasley for a 4 yd pass which goes for 14 (and we kick a FG).   If it didn't have to go an extra 7 yds, maybe we get 7.

 

C'est la Vie.

 

 

The thing is I wasn't disagreeing that he needed to complete more balls early in the game. I was saying the Ravens did a good job (I still content a very good job) of taking the short throws to receivers - primarily Brown and Beasley but the tight ends too - away. They are the throws that really get Josh in rhythm typically. What they were giving the Bills was lots of opportunities to beat them deep. The Bills were trying to take those opportunities - especially early - likely because they knew it would open things up for them. 

 

I do not disagree at all then when the Ravens brought max pressure and blitzed with 6 guys Josh should have got it his hots quicker and with more regularity. I said that immediately after the game. But I think they threw a lot of deep balls - especially early because that was what the defense was giving them and they tried to open things up. 

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

 

And I agree 100% with this. 

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

 

True enough...I am just interested in why they didn't run any posts against the Cover 0 to the middle of the field where there was nobody there...

 

Its easier to get someone open on a diagonal running route that puts a DB in the trail position most times than a vertical route and maybe an easier throw for Allen

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On 12/11/2019 at 7:17 AM, machine gun kelly said:

 

The bad thing is the Steelers, Pats, and Jets saw this tape.  The difference is they don’t have the same talent as the Ravens.  They were well coached, and without being at the game, I suspect at least a few times he could have hit someone underneath.  That doesn’t mean I don’t like Josh, just he’s a work in progress.

 

I’ve said several times, P. Manning was 3-13 his first year due to a lack of talent and his decision making.  Brady didn’t look that sharp his first two years, but had an incredible defense.  Outside of the Ravens he has dramatically improved after the first four games.

The Steelers' D talent is pretty comparable to the Ravens. Great front seven plus an elite safety (Fitzpatrick) and a shutdown corner in Hayden.

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On 12/11/2019 at 9:40 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing, but I call shenanigans.  Here are a couple screen shots from the 3rd drive (1Q).  The top 2 are 1st and 10 after Allen's successful pass to Singletary for a 1st down conversion.  That's Knox between the hashes, McKensie near the 35, and Beasley on the 30.  Beasley appears to have his man beat and to be looking back for the ball.  Safe throw as if Allen misses, no Raven would have a play.

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Here's a better shot of Knox open, ready, and waiting.  Slightly less safe throw but he's moving back to the R so Allen can lead him that way and trust him to make a play.

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Allen chose the more difficult throw to McKensie, who was open, but by that time Allen had rolled right and throwing on the run with 2 Ravens chasing him. 

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But he had protection early, and he had targets who appear to me to be open and looking for the ball.

 

Here's 2nd and 10 on the same drive.  OK, I grant you he's not a WR, but there's Singletary on the L at the 25 with plenty of room to make a catch and gain some yards - no defender within 10 yds of him.  You must have a WR?  OK, how about Brown at the 27 yd line?  Allen has a pocket at this point, and while Brown is at the LOS the play design has no defender within 5 yds of him, so he should be able to get some yards.  And Singletary is still over there all alone  growing moss.

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So Allen could have gotten yards on both 1st and 2nd down, and then it's 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 10.

 

I could keep going, but my point is that when Allen said in his post game presser that he needed to do a better job taking some easier throws, it's because they were there and he knew it.

 

 

Yes, certainly.  But the above screen shots illustrate that Allen had open choices, and passed them up in favor of lower percentage deep throws that are especially low percentage for a QB who is facing challenging varied blitzes and has struggled with deep throws this season.  If it was part of the game plan early for Allen to give preference to those deep shots, then it's a Bad Game Plan, one which would fall into the category that Daboll sometimes falls too much in love with the X's and O's and the abstract "best solution" instead of minding what the Jimmies and Joes can actually execute.

 

This is how our offense will live or die - not based upon Allen's problematic ability to hit deep throws that are low percentage for any QB but based upon Allen's willingness to identify and make the "bunnies" that the defense gives him and trust his guys to make some yards.

 

 

Agreed, but IMO the Bills lost the game when they failed to adjust quickly enough to what the Jimmies and Joes on our team were actually capable of executing.  To what degree that's on Allen rather than on Daboll, Dorsey, and Bobby Johnson, I can't tell you, but I'm quite sure Allen has the authority to hit a seemingly wide open Knox or Bease on 1st down or Singletary or Brown on 2nd.  And he knows it.

Disagree on Knox being open there.  As soon as Josh ***** his arm to throw the defender, who is 1 yard away would be on top of Knox to knock that away or at least lay some serious wood on Knox.

 

Other images I agree.  There were definitely targets to be had there.

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9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Disagree on Knox being open there.  As soon as Josh ***** his arm to throw the defender, who is 1 yard away would be on top of Knox to knock that away or at least lay some serious wood on Knox.

 

Other images I agree.  There were definitely targets to be had there.

 

Basically, it's the job of the TE to make that catch and hold on through "serious wood"

 

This is the NFL.  A defender 1 yd away is a ton of space.  Now I'll grant you it doesn't look as though Allen has a clear throwing lane in the shot I posted, he would have to move a bit.

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Basically, it's the job of the TE to make that catch and hold on through "serious wood"

 

It is but one... Its Knox we are talking about here.  Two the defender was in good position to make a play.  While it is the TE's job to catch through "serious wood," it's the defenders job to make sure he doesn't.  Looking at the images, to me the throw Josh made had a better chance of succeeding.

Edited by Scott7975
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1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It is but one... Its Knox we are talking about here.  Two the defender was in good position to make a play.  While it is the TE's job to catch through "serious wood," it's the defenders job to make sure he doesn't.  Looking at the images, to me the throw Josh made had a better chance of succeeding.

 

OK, we disagree.  The shot Allen took is the highest degree of difficulty as a throw, to the least capable WR of the 4 receiving options available (McKensie).

We can just disagree on this one.

 

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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, we disagree.  The shot Allen took is the highest degree of difficulty as a throw, to the least capable WR of the 4 receiving options available (McKensie).

We can just disagree on this one.

 

 

That's fine.  We can disagree.  I just don't understand why you don't view a defender who is a step away from basically an unmoving target as not being covered.  Its pretty much perfect coverage.  It allows the defender to make a play on the ball or nail Knox if he can't.  It also allows the defender to swarm to the ball if it goes elsewhere.  On this type of play there isn't much better coverage the defender is going to have there.

 

I also don't view the throw Allen took to be "the highest degree of difficulty."  I see that play made all the time.

 

 

Edited by Scott7975
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