Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[Buffalo716]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Obviously none of us have access to the Bills practice rep sheet.  Given that they knew Wink Martindale blitzes like crazy, including a bunch of Cover 0 that makes it hard to run, it would not surprise me that the Bills built in some extra reps around the deep throws that they dialed up early - and that Allen was hitting them regularly in practice.

 

Then you get to game time, and maybe he's got to take a couple extra steps to avoid the OL getting shoved back in his lap.  Maybe  he has to rush his throw a little because of the pressure.  Maybe he can't plant and follow through exactly as he wants.  The wind is gusting and swirling in a way it may not have done during the week.  Maybe the receiver doesn't get a clean release off the line, maybe the DB gets some hands on him as Cover1 suggested.  It becomes an estimate, and not a precision passing maneuver. 

 

I know none of this is news to you I'm just putting it out there.

 

 

Yes, and he's made far more improvement there than I thought he would (or could) and has maintained it most of the time during games.  It wouldn't surprise me if that focus on altered mechanics for the intermediate throws, affected his deep throws.

 

 

And he couldn't hold the ball one second more, because he would have been on his ass with a bunch of Ravens pecking and squawking.

That's why he needs to work on his touch downfield more... A bit more touch and the recievers can have a tiny bit more time to adjust and get there

 

But when you put so much Time into the short and intermediate game as Allen has you are bound to not be as efficient in the area you didn't focus as much time.. ala the deep ball

[Boatdrinks]

26 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

What doesn't kill you makes you stonger. While it would have been nice had he carved up their defense like Brees carves up defenses, im truly thankful that he got to experience this. He will learn from it. Our playoff hopes werent riding on this and honestly I believe it will make the team stronger and hungrier.

Watching Brees in their game vs San Fran it’s incredible how much separation the WRs got in this game. While maybe not exactly the same issue with the Bills deep ball problem , it’s also noteworthy that these WRs go and get passes that are just in their general vicinity. I’ve yet to see a Bills WR or TE do this; in fact watching the Ravens game again it’s appalling how many times our WRs just stopped running routes when Josh was flushed out or under duress. Pretty awful effort all the way around. The Bills offense is playing with several empty chambers in the revolver. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

Watching Brees in their game vs San Fran it’s incredible how much separation the WRs got in this game. While maybe not exactly the same issue with the Bills deep ball problem , it’s also noteworthy that these WRs go and get passes that are just in their general vicinity. I’ve yet to see a Bills WR or TE do this; in fact watching the Ravens game again it’s appalling how many times our WRs just stopped running routes when Josh was flushed out or under duress. Pretty awful effort all the way around. The Bills offense is playing with several empty chambers in the revolver. 

 

TBH that's really necessary to be a good deep ball WR.  The WR has to be able to track the ball and adjust.

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public. 
 

Josh Allen is the worse ranked starter in the NFL at deep passes. The trend is continuing from year 1 to year 2.  Now @GoBills808 , if you’d like to actually add to the conversation rather than being pedantic and combative, that would be great. 
 

To my original point, Josh Allen isn’t in some special circumstance where he can’t develop rhythm with his WR’s after 4 weeks of camp and 14  weeks in season (+ the bye). He gets just as much practice as everybody else. 
 

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

So more ‘deep pass’ completions than Lamar Jackson is what I’m seeing, correct?

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH that's really necessary to be a good deep ball WR.  The WR has to be able to track the ball and adjust.

 

It's one of the reasons that KC is so darn dangerous; they have 3 of the best deep ball trackers in the game in Hill, Hardman, and Watkins--who,

for all his faults, is otherworldly in his ability to track down deep throws.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's why he needs to work on his touch downfield more... A bit more touch and the recievers can have a tiny bit more time to adjust and get there

 

But when you put so much Time into the short and intermediate game as Allen has you are bound to not be as efficient in the area you didn't focus as much time.. ala the deep ball

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

[Magox]

His deep pass without doubt has not been good at all this year.  But it's definitely fixable.   It's a matter of calibration and not being so paranoid of throwing the pick.  He just needs to try to put a little more air in it.

[Mango]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So more ‘deep pass’ completions than Lamar Jackson is what I’m seeing, correct?

 

No.

 

Lamar is 13/39

Josh is 13/51

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, jrober38 said:

They usually don't get a whole lot better after their second season as a starter.

Historically speaking (going back 20 years), the biggest jump in a QBs play will come between their first and second season as a starter. 

There are a few outliers, but they are few and far between. 

 

Would you care to share this data and also explain the metric you're using?

Since you state it so authoritatively and repeatedly, you must either have a good numerical metric for this and a source for that metric, OR you must have compiled same yourself. 

 

One hopes.

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

No.

 

Lamar is 13/39

Josh is 13/51

 

 

 

Ah, OK, the same number of deep pass completions. 

Maybe Jackson just has better judgement (or better coaching/game plan) on when not to throw.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

 

You're correct and I don't think 716 will disagree with you, except for the caveat that last Sunday in New Era was probably not the right time and place for arcs.

 

What was not a given, to me, is the improvement in Allen's short and intermediate throws.  He sucked at them last year (and ran instead of taking shots he had).  I will take my crow: I was openly skeptical that he could improve on those as much as he has.  He plainly put in a huge amount of work on them and it shows.

 

That being the case, while perhaps not a "given", I don't think it's very surprising that his deep ball suffered, either because he simply didn't give it the reps it needed with the current WR/TE corps (only one of whom was here last year), or because a change in his intermediate throw mechanics that he's successfully beaten into muscle memory has altered what he does with the deep ball.  Or both.

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Would you care to share this data and also explain the metric you're using?

Since you state it so authoritatively and repeatedly, you must either have a good numerical metric for this and a source for that metric, OR you must have compiled same yourself.

 

Ah, OK, the same number of deep pass completions. 

Maybe Jackson just has better judgement (or better coaching/game plan) on when not to throw.

 

 

I guess you would have to take a look at the tape and break it down as to whether or not the WR has a step. There were a number of opportunities against Baltimore where coverage was beat and we didn't make a play deep. 

I feel like we are going down the long ball rabbit hole of is Josh good or not. 

 

My original point was, this is the NFL, Josh Allen has just as much access to resources, coaching, reps, etc. as every other QB in the league. To somehow insinuate that after 4-5 months with his receivers, he is in some special position in the league that he can't hit an average rate is silly. He had the worst long ball accuracy in the league last year, and he is on pace to do it this year. 

[dakrider]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It's one of the reasons that KC is so darn dangerous; they have 3 of the best deep ball trackers in the game in Hill, Hardman, and Watkins--who,

for all his faults, is otherworldly in his ability to track down deep throws.

The Denver Broncos receivers are making their rookie QB look all pro.  Getting open with good separation, making fantastic catches and beating their defenders, and running down the field after the catch.  Every week in the NFL I see great receiver play that is lacking in Buffalo. 

[Mango]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I see their data, and it looks like a good site, but please excuse me for not getting it- where is the part that shows Allen has the worst completion % for deep passes?

 

I don't want to see their IQR which their glossary defines as  " Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc."  I don't find Special Sauce metrics have a good track record.  Maybe this one is different, maybe it's not.

 

I just want completion percentage.  The % they have there seem to be % of throws targetted to the L, Middle, and R

 

I'm not trying to be a tool here.  I actually tried copying and pasting their data set into Excel so I could calculate it myself, which works for NFL and pro-football-reference stuff, but the way their table is formatted it didn't behave nicely using my easy-peasy bag o' tricks.

 

If we're going to be talking about how Josh completes these passes at a much lower rate than anyone else, I just think there ought to be some data we can all look at.

 

Thanks for the link though.

 

 

Slow work day...I put it in excel. Josh is better than Kyle Allen, Rudolph, Foles, and Daniel Jones. The only other who played this week was Kyle Allen. 

 

Name	COMP	ATT	Comp %
Kyle Allen	9	45	20.00
Mason Rudolph	8	34	23.53
Nick Foles	4	17	23.53
Daniel Jones	9	37	24.32
Josh Allen	13	53	24.53
Sam Darnold	10	38	26.32
Josh Rosen	4	15	26.67
Jared Goff	13	43	30.23
Aaron Rodgers	20	64	31.25
Lamar Jackson	13	39	33.33
Andy Dalton	10	30	33.33
Joe Flacco	7	21	33.33
Dwayne Haskins	6	18	33.33
Case Keenum	5	15	33.33
Derek Carr	11	32	34.38
Jacoby Brissett	10	29	34.48
Ryan Fitzpatrick	15	43	34.88
Mitchell Trubisky	15	42	35.71
Philip Rivers	23	64	35.94
Baker Mayfield	18	49	36.73
Ryan Tannehill	10	27	37.04
Jameis Winston	28	75	37.33
Carson Wentz	22	58	37.93
Drew Brees	8	21	38.10
Matt Ryan	19	47	40.43
Matthew Stafford	22	54	40.74
Deshaun Watson	25	60	41.67
Patrick Mahomes	23	54	42.59
Teddy Bridgewater	6	14	42.86
Tom Brady	24	55	43.64
Kyler Murray	21	48	43.75
Kirk Cousins	21	48	43.75
Russell Wilson	28	62	45.16
Eli Manning	5	11	45.45
Marcus Mariota	5	11	45.45
Dak Prescott	30	65	46.15
Gardner Minshew	19	39	48.72
Jimmy Garoppolo	16	27	59.26

[Mikey152]

I remember reading an article about Aaron Rodgers where they asked him about the "art" of the deep ball and why he was so good at it.  He said when he first came into the league, he was awful...mostly because he was trying to throw it as hard as he could, and in a game situation with his adrenaline pumping he would constantly overthrow it relative to his timing in practice.  Ultimately, he fixed this problem by focusing on repeating his mechanics, including how hard he threw it, every time.  Make it more of a calculated process than a wing and a prayer.  His placement is focused more on which shoulder, not how far, and he uses timing and mechanics to control distance and trajectory.

 

I think Josh has the same issue...the there is no rhythm.  He just kind of heaves it out there and it's usually too far...

 

I honestly think he just throws the ball too far for a normal 5 or 7 step drop.  He either needs to hitch, give it more air (mechanics) or take something off (tough due to adrenaline ina  game situation)...maybe all three

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mikey152

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, dakrider said:

The Denver Broncos receivers are making their rookie QB look all pro.  Getting open with good separation, making fantastic catches and beating their defenders, and running down the field after the catch.  Every week in the NFL I see great receiver play that is lacking in Buffalo. 

 

We had receivers get open on deep routes at least 5 times against the Ravens and Allen couldn't complete a single one of those opportunities presented to him. 

[tcampbell104]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

We had receivers get open on deep routes at least 5 times against the Ravens and Allen couldn't complete a single one of those opportunities presented to him. 

man you really hate the guy

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, tcampbell104 said:

man you really hate the guy

 

I don't hate anyone.

 

I just don't understand why people go to such extreme lengths to blame everyone but the QB for why we can't complete passes thrown more than 30 yards down field. 

 

The three misses in the first quarter were all awful throws from a clean pocket. 

[Bing Bong]

I'm still dejected the Ravens are so much more a complete team than us. That said, we limit the mistakes, play Belicheck ball, then the margin appears to be close enough to win us that game.

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

It's not a given that it would be a lot worse but common sense days it wouldn't be as clean as the areas he busted his butt on

 

If you're a golfer and you practice  your irons for the majority for 6 months straight they will be impeccable.. but your driver game will take a hit

 

It's the same principal. People thought Allen couldn't hit the backside of a barn at close distances... Now he has 65% completion on throws from 10-20 yards downfield. He spent ALOT of time on them and it has paid off

 

He needs to do the same for the deep ball next off-season

[tcampbell104]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't hate anyone.

 

I just don't understand why people go to such extreme lengths to blame everyone but the QB for why we can't complete passes thrown more than 30 yards down field. 

 

The three misses in the first quarter were all awful throws from a clean pocket. 

okay good enough