Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Singletary 8 targets, 6 receptions, one clear drop another that hit his hand (would have been a high DOD catch but again - other guys around the league make those).  Call it 6/8, 75%.

Singletary made yards out of similar plays to that "wouldn't have gone for much".

 

McKensie 5 targets, 3 receptions.  1 underthrown low.  1 on target in the EZ, but defended (McKensie might have been ruled out - looked like his L knee might have been on the white line at the side of the EZ.  Call it 4 catchable balls, 3 receptions, 75%. 

 

Beasley 7 targets, 4 receptions.  1 ball tipped at line and not catchable.  6 were catchable balls.  One through his hands, might not score as a drop but def. catchable. 4/6, 67%. 

 

Brown 8/3 on paper.  He had 2 clear overthrows, a third that a bigger WR or one who jumps and takes the hit might have made.  So 2 catchable balls that he didn't haul in (they were defensed, not drops, but we see top WR elsewhere catch those). Call it 5 catchable balls (2 high DOD that aren't drops but other #1 WR make those), 3 receptions, 60%.

 

Knox had the drop you mention, also had a ball hit him in the hands in the EZ for a touch (Possible I might change my mind after coaches film) - 4 targets, 3 catchable balls, 1 catch.  33%.  No bueno. 

 

Taken across the receiving corps,  5 more receptions that were catchable balls that would make yards, and the game looks different.

 

Josh made poor decisions IMO a number of times, especially early in the game.  He took deep shots too much when he should have gone for moving the chains.  For example on the play to McKenzie that was underthrown while Allen was under pressure, he had Gore for a dump off on the L behind the LOS.  Gore had space and could likely have trucked for a few yards if nothing else, if he made a guy miss maybe more.  He had Beasley on the R side for 3 yds.  So he passed them up going for a tough play near the 1st down marker, and now it's 2nd and 10 in stead of 2nd and 5 or 2nd and 7.

 

I don't know how Allen was being coached.  Maybe it was over-emphasized to him to not check down, to go for "chunk plays".  If so, that's mistaken coaching emphasis IMO.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Good post, although I think we're a little too prone here to qualify throws requiring circus catches as "catchable throws". The Singletary pass was definitely overthrown and would have required probably the greatest catch of Singletary's career (college or pro) to haul it in.  IIRC, that McKenzie "drop" was not an easy catch at all. 

[metzelaars_lives]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Allen needs to calm down to begin big games. NE and Baltimore he both appeared a little over emotional to start. Allen didn’t play in front of the big college experience like a lot of the other QB’s in the league. When Allen played in front of his home crowd in college it was to 29,000 people cheering. Even Miami has more home fans than that. ?
Allen is fine and showing steady progression. The entire offense was wildly inconsistent yesterday. 

As a Wyoming fan, he did beat Boise State and San Diego State at home, both of whom were ranked at the time, in 2016.  He also narrowly lost to San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game.  Not the NFL, obviously, but they were big games- I was at all three of them!

[Big Gun]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Agreed.

There definitely weren't 8 drops.

Yup, rewatched the game and counted 8 drops, all 8 of them hit the WR in the hands, when the ball hits the WR in the hands what is the WR supposed to do, catch the ball right, so if he didn't catch the ball what did he do? Dropped it, right!

 

And that doesn't count the Knox endzone drop because I can't tell if the LB tipped the ball yet it still hit Knox in the chest.

Edited December 9, 2019 by pop gun

[Formerly Allan in MD]

I'm more dejected by Daboll's play calling in the wasted first quarter.  Three and out continuously is bad enough but calling totally predictable (for Daboll) plays on second and third down and having Allen continue to throw third down deep balls on a windy day is simply unacceptable.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Yup, rewatched the game and counted 8 drops, all 8 of them hit the WR in the hands, when the ball hits the WR in the hands what is the WR supposed to do, catch the ball right, so if he didn't catch the ball what did he do? Dropped it, right!

 

And that doesn't count the Knox endzone drop because I can't tell if the LB tipped the ball yet it still hit Knox in the chest.

You probably have a different definition of what "drop" is than I do. Passes that require circus catches are by definition inaccurate, and leaping attempts by receivers who fail to catch it even though it hits part of their hands aren't really dropping it. For instance, I think it's crazy to say that Singletary "dropped" that deep throw. It simply wasn't accurate enough. More to the point, every damn team in the league has "drops" like that every week. We see great circus catches every week during the highlights, but I can assure you that there are far more not-quite-accurate enough throws that go incomplete than those that result in completions. They just aren't on the highlight shows. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by dave mcbride

[LABILLBACKER]

I don't see Lamar & Josh's career paths going the same direction. Lamar over the next couple years will be a dynamic ankle breaker who can find his targets. He will be the superior qb over Josh in the short term. Josh will require more time. More time to read defenses,  more time to learn the correct way to throw deep. I think years 4-6, Josh will be the better qb as injuries mount for Lamar. Just like they did for RG3. What Lamar is doing now is not sustainable. 

[Allen2Moulds]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It's just excuses for Allen.

 

There we're a few big drops, but Allen mostly sucked yesterday with help from his receivers and line.

Martindale took Daboll to school, and it wasn't even close.  I know JA had a bad game, but he was absolutely getting killed, from the opening whistle, all the way until the end of the game.  Even against cover 0, it's hard to beat when guys get there, as fast as they did. Several times, I saw someone come straight up the middle with a free shot at Allen. That led to sacks and a lot of other big hits.  I thought he was going to get killed yesterday, and was shocked that he finished the game.  Like another poster pointed out, Baltimore was vulnerable on the edges, yet we decided to try and attack the middle of their defense way too often.  I was screaming at the TV and pulling my hair out.  Frank Gore.....up the middle.  and then we get to the half yard line, and we try a sweep with Gore to the outside.  That single play almost cost us the only TD of the game.

 

Big physical defenses like NE and Baltimore have to be attacked with backs and TE's.  Forced those big heavy LB's into coverage.  Thats why we started having success against NE. They had a hard time covering yeldon.  It's also what NE does with White all the time, and KC with Kelce.  We should of played a 2 back set with Singletary and TJ Yeldon, to serve as extra pass protectors against the blitz, and also for quick screens and outlets. fake screen to one side, and hit the other side.  It was as bad and vanilla as a game plan that I've seen. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Allen2Moulds

[Mango]

56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Clinging to his '3TDs' is really all you have to justify why his performance was somehow so superior to Allen's. My original question dealt with why there would be such a discrepancy in how their respective performances Sunday are viewed, but judging by the excuses for Jackson and the criticism of Allen it's rhetorical anyhow. 

 

Dude, YOU ASKED WHY THE MEDIA WONT MAKE A BIG DEAL OUT OF LAMAR'S INT !!!!!!

 

I responded with a 3td game, 64% completion percentage, his ability to take over the game as a passer and a runner, the win streak they are on, etc. 

 

YOU ARE THE ONE CLINGING TO THE 3 TD GAME AMONG ALL THE OTHER POINTS OF REFERENCE. Lamar has had much better games, than just about any of JA's better games this year. JA's worst games are worse than just about all of Lamar's worst games this year. Lamar, has also been much more constant than JA in 2019.  LJ will most likely win MVP this year. These are all part of the answer as to why nobody is going to call Lamar Jackson terrible after throwing a single INT (that resulted in 0 points) in a W where he also threw 3 other TD's. 

 

I have no idea what the hell you are trying to rally behind, or what point you are trying to prove. This just feels like arguing for the sake of arguing. What do you think the reasons are? 

[BigDingus]

All of that would be fine if it wasn't for the fact that Allen, not the defense, prevented many big plays from happening.

When the defense is already beat and your target is open, the only things that ruins that is the QB or the receiver.

The first half was the QB wildly missing guys. The second half we had key drops on good passes.

That isn't a product of good defense, that's a consequence of bad offense.

[Phil The Thrill]

2 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Are we not counting all the sacks Josh gave up? He had 105 net passing yards compared to 139 for Lamar. 

 

Counting runs, Josh had 114 total yards on 41 drop backs for 2.78 yards per play. Lamar had 179 total yards on 36 drop backs for 4.97 yards per play. No narrative, just numbers. I didn't use any adjectives to qualify how much he got outplayed. I just said he got outplayed. I didn't lie about anything.

I love how you add the “net yardage” to push your bogus narrative.  Your bias has been exposed.  

146 passing yards to 145

 

Of course Lamar had more yards rushing.  He ran 9 times more than Josh! 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Dude, YOU ASKED WHY THE MEDIA WONT MAKE A BIG DEAL OUT OF LAMAR'S INT !!!!!!

 

I responded with a 3td game, 64% completion percentage, his ability to take over the game as a passer and a runner, the win streak they are on, etc. 

 

YOU ARE THE ONE CLINGING TO THE 3 TD GAME AMONG ALL THE OTHER POINTS OF REFERENCE. Lamar has had much better games, than just about any of JA's better games this year. JA's worst games are worse than just about all of Lamar's worst games this year. Lamar, has also been much more constant than JA in 2019.  LJ will most likely win MVP this year. These are all part of the answer as to why nobody is going to call Lamar Jackson terrible after throwing a single INT (that resulted in 0 points) in a W where he also threw 3 other TD's. 

 

I have no idea what the hell you are trying to rally behind, or what point you are trying to prove. This just feels like arguing for the sake of arguing. What do you think the reasons are? 

Mmm no, I don't care about what the 'media' says or season stats as I was asking about this game in particular. My contention is that the performances of the two QBs weren't as drastically different as is being portrayed (mostly here). Your rebuttal is the 3tds and completion percentage I assume. I gave the TDs some context, adjusted the completion% to account for drops...what's the issue?

 

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’m completely dejected you feel empowered to start threads again. 

But, Hey! It’s not completely moronic. There’s hope.

Nice to see a moderator insulti

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

You're not allowed to criticize Josh Allen after he has horrible games. 

 

There are people here who think Josh Allen is a better QB than Deshaun Watson. 

Its not that... it’s the overreactions on both sides of the argument.  

[thunderingsquid]

I watched the whole game.  This one's on the OL and play calling in my opinion.  He had no time and was getting assaulted.

 

Honorable mention to the refs who let the Ravens DBs assault our WRs and Knox all day.  

Edited December 9, 2019 by thunderingsquid

[Max Fischer]

I don't feel dejected. Allen got better as the game progressed and was a good DB play away from tying the game.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

He was running for his life, but on a few of those situations, he didn’t need to be.  The right move was to hang in the pocket and to step up. 

 

Um, no.  The Ravens were running a lot of delay blitzes where the unblocked man shot through a gap in what appeared to be a clean pocket.  Other times, there was no pocket.  I saw Morse knocked ass overteakettle at least once.  Morse was knocked back into Allen and stepped on his ankle, sending him to the ground on one of the so called "sacks".

 

What Allen needed to do under pressure was know his solution and take it.  Hit the hot read.  They were usually there.  Give Singletary and Beasley a chance to make a play.

I posted about some of the specific opportunities he had elsewhere to take the 0, 3, 5 yd plays that were there on 1st and 2nd down and put us in 3rd and 3 to 5, then just go for the first down instead of "Go for the Glory".  Anyone can see them who looks at the game film, starting about the 3rd series.

Without info none of us have (What was the game plan? What were his instructions?) I give Allen the first two deep shots on the first 2 series, but after that he needed to settle in and take what he could get and move the chains.

 

Quote

If the Ravens blitz and play Cover 0, that means one man is coming unlocked.  Josh needs to recognize where the pressure is coming from and make them pay. 

 

Again, the Ravens weren't playing a conventional blitz scheme Allen could recognize.  Wink Martindale is known for that - Feliciano mentioned it before the game that Martindale had a special blitz package for the 49ers but they would dial up something different for us.  What I saw is that they would show blitz and have that blitzer drop back into coverage, then have a different guy who was acting like he was dropping into coverage hang back, find a gap in the OL, and shoot it.  There's I'm sure a more technical explanation, but Allen said in his presser that they were "bringing some blitzes maybe we hadn't seen before". 

 

It's also, as Allen has said, a "man whupping man" game of football and there were times when the Ravens DL was just whupping us on the OL.  Singletary did OK most of the time, but I saw Knox several times being brushed aside like a pesky horsefly.  Mitch Morse got pwned several times, including (as I said above) costing Allen an ankle sprain that no doubt hindered him for the rest of the game and knocked ass over teakettle.  Ford got beaten like a drum at times.

 

They all did, really.

 

 

[thunderingsquid]

16 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Martindale took Daboll to school, and it wasn't even close.  I know JA had a bad game, but he was absolutely getting killed, from the opening whistle, all the way until the end of the game.  Even against cover 0, it's hard to beat when guys get there, as fast as they did. Several times, I saw someone come straight up the middle with a free shot at Allen. That led to sacks and a lot of other big hits.  I thought he was going to get killed yesterday, and was shocked that he finished the game.  Like another poster pointed out, Baltimore was vulnerable on the edges, yet we decided to try and attack the middle of their defense way too often.  I was screaming at the TV and pulling my hair out.  Frank Gore.....up the middle.  and then we get to the half yard line, and we try a sweep with Gore to the outside.  That single play almost cost us the only TD of the game.

 

Big physical defenses like NE and Baltimore have to be attacked with backs and TE's.  Forced those big heavy LB's into coverage.  Thats why we started having success against NE. They had a hard time covering yeldon.  It's also what NE does with White all the time, and KC with Kelce.  We should of played a 2 back set with Singletary and TJ Yeldon, to serve as extra pass protectors against the blitz, and also for quick screens and outlets. fake screen to one side, and hit the other side.  It was as bad and vanilla as a game plan that I've seen. 

 

THIS is the game that I saw AND I had a similar reaction to the play calling.  To me it's on Daboll and the O Line.  

 

And keep in perspective that we almost tied it up in the end despite our WRs getting absolutely ASSAULTED all game by the Ravens DBs and the refs swallowing flags.  

Edited December 9, 2019 by thunderingsquid

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, thunderingsquid said:

I watched the whole game.  This one's on the OL in my opinion.  He had no time and was getting assaulted.

 

Allen had time to do what he's got to do against the blitz, which is take the checkdown or the hot read.  Allen certainly had no time to let deep plays develop and when he tried to buy it he was throwing under duress.

 

Quote

Honorable mention to the refs who let the Ravens DBs assault our WRs and Knox all day.  

 

There were assaults on occasion, but some of it was just very good coverage.  The plays that concern me most were Allen getting picked up bodily and slammed into the ground after he'd thrown the ball with no call.  Saw at least 2.

[GoBills808]

 

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, sure it's a harm.  But 1 or 2 shots, in the course of a game, are really NBD.  Yes, I'll agree we missed a golden opportunity. 

But that's not killer.  What is killer is having better opportunities and not taking them.   if you watch the game again, pay attention to the 3rd series we had, with 4:26 left in the 1st.  On 1st and 10, Allen hits Brown at the LOS.  Brown is hit immediately for NG.  Looked like he had Beasley open for at least 2-3. 

On 2nd and 10, Allen had Singletary open on the L at the LOS with a big cushion in front of him, and Brown open in the flats route heading toward the R sideline.  He flushed out of the pocket to the L and hurried his throw to Knox, which was made with one defender charging up behind him and one in his face.

On 3rd and 10, he's under pressure again and goes incomplete to Kroft (I think) who may have been late getting his head turned and being "QB friendly"

 

My point is that the missed deep throws are not the difference in the game.  The difference in the game are the missed opportunities for high-percentage "bunnies".  LJax took those and hit those and moved the chains.

 

 

 

For the bolded... that's a play call.  If he is throwing to a guy at the LoS that's call.  The ball is always going there.  Doesn't matter if Beasley got open.  Beasley's job would have been to clear out then block.

 

That's like saying on a screen pass... well they had so and so open 20 yards downfield.  It doesn't matter because the call was a screen pass.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Scott7975

[Allen2Moulds]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen had time to do what he's got to do against the blitz, which is take the checkdown or the hot read.  Allen certainly had no time to let deep plays develop and when he tried to buy it he was throwing under duress.

 

 

There were assaults on occasion, but some of it was just very good coverage.  The plays that concern me most were Allen getting picked up bodily and slammed into the ground after he'd thrown the ball with no call.  Saw at least 2.

It was early and often, and we did a very poor job of countering. The best way to counter blitzing, is with quick screens. Use the other teams aggression against them. Unfortunately, we have a below average screen game.