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Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44

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1 hour ago, RavensFan said:

 

Re: can’t read a defense at all:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2863553-what-nfl-defenses-must-do-to-try-to-stop-lamar-jackson-and-the-ravens

 

One coach said he's seen defenses throw all kinds of mixed coverages at Jackson, and assorted blitz packages, and Jackson "eats them for breakfast."

"He's an exceptionally quick thinker," the coach said.

This is a huge reason Jackson has been so successful throwing the football. It's not just the accuracy; it's digesting how the defense is attacking him and acting accordingly.

 

 

The people who say Jackson can't read a defense at all are clearly mistaken.  But the reason that Jackson usually eats "blitz packages for breakfast" is that the offense he's running and his own extraordinary chops as a runner allows him to escape them and run himself, or pass the ball to a TE who is difficult to cover.  Mixed coverages and blitz packages are designed to confound QBs who have to stand in the pocket and figure out where to throw. 

 

Around here, we have a long time opinion of Bleacher Report around here as clickbait that is not carefully researched.  They have improved recently and added some good writers, but still:  "There's not another quarterback in the league like this," Belichick said of Jackson before the Ravens handed the Patriots their only loss of the season, 37-20, earlier this month—before Jackson obliterated the best defense in football for 163 yards and a touchdown passing and 61 yards and two more TDs rushing."

 

Fact: the New England Patriots still own the best D in the NFL on points and #2 on yards.  And 163 yds passing is precisely the AVERAGE passing yardage they give up (1962 yds total/12 games = 163.5 ypg average).  Nor is 61 yds rushing from Jackson a particularly "obliterating" performance - Jackson has been AVERAGING 81 ypg, so containing him to 61 yds is 20 ypg lower than his per-game average.

 

Overall, the Ravens ran for 210 rush yards that game, which IS significantly more than the 94.5 ypg average NE gives up.  That suggests to me that Belicheck made a strategic decision to limit Jackson on the ground, and by doing so created an opportunity that Ingrams was able to exploit. 

 

But the real difference in that game was the Ravens defense vs the Patriots offense.  The Ravens forced NWE to punt 3 or 4 and out on their first 3 possessions.  The Ravens had a 70 yd fumble return for a TD, NE had a fumble that resulted in a FG (and I think a punt, though the box score is kind of opaque on what happened and I don't remember).  Brady could not get anything going on offense.

 

The thing about the Ravens is that they play very well on all 3 phases of the game, they don't make many mistakes, they shut down the other team successfully when they do, and they take good advantage of any mistakes other teams do make.

 

I just get a bit eye rolling about all the hyperbole around Baltimore's offense.  I guess it's "equal and opposite reaction" to the unjustified criticism (as above), but I've seen unstoppable offenses before - including the K-Gun, the "Greatest Show on Turf" and the 2012-2013 Roman offense in SF, and eventually they all get stopped. 

 

I'm not saying the Bills are the team to do it today - I think the Bills have weaknesses on ST and perform unevenly on offense and defense - but if we're "on" our game it should be a strong game.

 

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31 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Ok let me restate this.  Jackson doesn't have to read coverage on the defense.  All he has to read is what package the defense has on the field and his offensive system already  has a pre-determined answer.  From there its just execution.

 

Based on 12 games of observation, I think you underestimate his responsibilities, but whatever.

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3 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

No one has said they're unbeatable (and they're obviously not). But "he can't read defenses at all" is pretty far over the top, wouldn't you say?

 

If that was the extent of the statement, yes. But it wasn't. He was saying that Jackson is operating in a simplified offense where he's reading defensive keys more than identifying coverages etc...and he's right.

 

But I was more referring to the seemingly increasing bravado in your posts--vis a vis "good luck confusing this...UDFA center...that easily dispatched of Aaron Donald blindfolded". 

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is the Lamar media frenzy.... Obliterated the Pats.  I am sorry.  This is not meant to be a knock on Lamar but the dude could take a dump on the field and the media would find a way to praise it.

 

Funny. Also true. The Pats game was a good performance against a top defense, nothing more.

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2 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Funny. Also true. The Pats game was a good performance against a top defense, nothing more.

 

It was a good performance, but I would put it that the Pats game was a top-notch Defensive performance against the Pats offense.  The Ravens offense put up 10 more points, which is good, but not an offensive beat-down. 

 

I'd say more about that Pats offense but we have to play them in 2 weeks and I don't want to put any bad Karma out there that might bite us

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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

But I was more referring to the seemingly increasing bravado in your posts--vis a vis "good luck confusing this...UDFA center...that easily dispatched of Aaron Donald blindfolded". 

 

Nothing like that was said either. It was an honest response to the suggestion that he could be rattled by a few blitzes, pointing out that he's had a pretty intense baptism.

 

Enjoy the game.

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9 hours ago, DarkBird said:

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

 

I compare Lamar as a passer to an elite wrestler’s standup in MMA. A great wrestler can compete with, and even get the better of, a great striker on their feet because the striker is so worried about the takedown. He keeps his hands low and is quick to react to a shot but slow to react to a punch.

 

That’s how Jackson is an efficient passer. Teams are so worried about the run game that they are willing to give Jackson parts of the field and if he can beat them, so be it. To Lamar’s credit he has beaten them, and regularly. Yet, if he had to drop straight back with no RPO or play action, or teams stacking the box, how successful would he be? Personally, I think he’d struggle but we will never know because he doesn’t have to do that as he’s the greatest runner we’ve ever seen at the QB position running the greatest running offense the NFL has seen in...maybe forever.

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1 minute ago, RavensFan said:

 

Nothing like that was said either. It was an honest response to the suggestion that he could be rattled by a few blitzes, pointing out that he's had a pretty intense baptism.

 

Enjoy the game.

 

Surviving one game game does not equate to "you're not going to rattle this battle-tested animal"...just seems a bit overconfident. 

 

Nevertheless I'm sure I will enjoy the game; nothing like December football 🍻

 

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35 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Based on 12 games of observation, I think you underestimate his responsibilities, but whatever.


YAWN 

 

You are on a Bills board and not a Ravens board.  
 

Sure you’ll find some to agree with you but we won’t kowtow to Fantasy stats. 
 

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22 hours ago, Logic said:


I guess I was speaking more of the Bills being susceptible to being gashed on individual runs. I wasn't necessarily talking about the entire course of a game. Sometimes, the Bills defense is prone to parting like the red sea and allowing HUGE allies up the middle.

This happened in the Eagles and Browns games, and it happened most recently against the Cowboys. Luckily, the Cowboys went away from the run in the second half for some reason. Ezekiel Elliott had collected 70 rushing yards in the first half alone. 

 

i'm glad you mentioned this and i've seen the same comments from others so i went and looked at the carry, by carry log for Zeke in that game, you're welcome to go look and interpret for yourself, sorry, i'm to lazy to cut, paste and format as you have to sort because he did have several receptions.

 

here's my interpretation:

  • 12-71 yards rushing
  • 3 runs totaled 55 yards - 2 were in the 1st quarter (30 and 12 yarders) and 1 was the beginning of the 3rd (13)
  • meaning the remaining 9 netted 16 yards - essentially a 1.8ypc
  • he had 9 carries in the 1st half and 3 in the second - again they were down 2 scores by the time they got the ball in the 3rd.
  • Zeke also played 88% of the offensive snaps, i read someone here stating he was pulled, that's incorrect.

so, as a head coach, we start getting down, by 2 scores and outside of the 1st 2 series my RB averages ~3ypc, then yes i'm going to go with a different offensive plan

 

so i don't think it was inexplicable that they went away from Zeke rushing, outside of 3 'chunk' runs he was below average, 2 of which were by middle 1st Q.

 

BTW - not trying to rub your nose in it, i had read all the others comment on "can't understand why they went away from Zeke" and i was wondering if i saw a different game than everyone else so i went and researched, so i'm comfortable in my assessment, especially if we consider a very desperate Garrett.

 

my source - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201911280dal.htm#all_pbp

 

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5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Guess that means something regarding today's game? 

Clearly it does. Are you watching?

Edited by Rampage

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On 12/5/2019 at 7:31 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Concern about how much of a home game this will be for the Poe-Birds is legit.

 

Going into Allen's "wildly different" stats is basically massaging the fact that our two worst games, both losses, to the Pats and to the Iggles, both happened at home.

If you take out the Pats and Eagles game, the completion percentage is the same (I calculate 63% for both, by summing passes completed and attempted then taking the ratio).

3 of Allen's 6 home INT and 1 TO came in those 2 games.

 

So while it's true "not playing as well at home as on the road", I think it's who we played, not where we played, that's the factor.

 

The Ravens will be a tough test, and I'm hoping the Bills will continue their recent trend of play fierce, play fearless.   I really just want to see a good hard-fought game, not a beat-down like we just witnessed on Thurs nite football.

 

Unless, of course, it's the Bills doing the beating.  Which despite my fan-love seems unlikely.

 

The Bills have no reason to play tight.  They aren't expected to win this as they were all the other home games but NE.  The Ravens have been kicking everybody's Butt of recent weeks.  So play fierce, play fearless, and play freely.

 

 

Disagree.

 

The Bills offense and Allen were very clearly playing tight for much of this game as they have for all of their other home games other than against Denver.

 

Yes, opponents matter. But this is a road team, not a home team.

 

For whatever reason, this seems to be the case this year.

 

Watch Allen and the offense shine on national TV on the road next week.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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3 hours ago, Rampage said:

Clearly it does. Are you watching?

 

Obviously the level of competition each team faced prior to this game was the deciding factor today.

 

Is this for real?

Edited by thebandit27

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