Bored - Offseason Speculation

[BuffaloHokie13]

My body is ready for the mocks @Virgil.

 

Also, I usually put together my plan in January (in Google sheets format, of course). I'll be sure to send you a copy. Thanks for doing some of the early research work!

[whatdrought]

https://buffalowdown.com/2019/12/02/buffalo-bills-7-round-nfl-mock-draft-adding-weapons-josh-allen/2/

 

Found this random Mock draft and I wouldn't hate it one bit. 

 

Shenault may not be my first choice, but I can see Daboll falling in love with his versatility. 

 

Harris in the 4th would be a great compliment for Motor. 

[ElMarko]

On 12/1/2019 at 2:25 PM, Virgil said:

I would argue that Poyer gets cheaper each year.  He hasn’t made the big plays like before.  I see no need to re-sign him early.  
 

Feliciano doesn’t even start.  I’m not worried about a holdout or needing to match high money elsewhere 

 

Huh?  Feliciano is the starting right guard. Poyer is part of one of the best safety tandems in the league. You're WAY OFF on these two players.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

20 hours ago, Monty98 said:

I'd love us to go after Shaq Thompson, I think he's terribly miscast in that weird multiple front Carolina has been using. He'd make our trio Milano, Edmunds, and Thompson. He excels in coverage and hes been solid for Carolina otherwise. Knows the system plus we'd have the funds to get him out of Carolina

This hasn’t been talked about enough! Would love to see Thompson in a Bills uniform.

 

Has been misused as you pointed out so potential buy low value most likely! 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, ElMarko said:

 

Huh?  Feliciano is the starting right guard. Poyer is part of one of the best safety tandems in the league. You're WAY OFF on these two players.

 

I meant to say didn't start.  As in, when the season began.  The were still rotating Ford at Guard.  Yes, he's been a pleasant surprise and I like him, but don't see us getting into a holdout/bidding war over him.

 

Poyer is a good safey, but he's not putting up the numbers like he did in year one that would also create a holdout/bidding war.

 

Unless we are trying to re-work cap space, I don't see a need to give them new deals early

[Saint Doug]

20 hours ago, Monty98 said:

I'd love us to go after Shaq Thompson, I think he's terribly miscast in that weird multiple front Carolina has been using. He'd make our trio Milano, Edmunds, and Thompson. He excels in coverage and hes been solid for Carolina otherwise. Knows the system plus we'd have the funds to get him out of Carolina

You forgot perhaps the biggest reason we’d go after him though. He plays for Carolina. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

https://buffalowdown.com/2019/12/02/buffalo-bills-7-round-nfl-mock-draft-adding-weapons-josh-allen/2/

 

Found this random Mock draft and I wouldn't hate it one bit. 

 

Shenault may not be my first choice, but I can see Daboll falling in love with his versatility. 

 

Harris in the 4th would be a great compliment for Motor. 

@whatdrought Not only do you have one of the best avatars on this board but I find myself nodding along with 99% of your posts.  

 

No different here, like the idea of a WR in the first (or edge rusher if the value is there) but unsure about Shenault. PAC-12 is kind of a soft conference in terms of good pass defenses as far as I can tell and I believe he has also been very injury prone. 

 

We spoke about Henry Ruggs III last week...I’m probably behind on this but have you seen his chase down and tackle on INT Vs Tennessee back in October? Well I’m officially on board, I’d even be open to trading up into the high teens to get him if we have to. 

 

Harris is our ideal complement to Motor, would grab him in the third probably (but worried he could go higher after the combine). Another poster recommended signing Derrick Henry earlier in this thread, but Harris probably has his ceiling, is a better receiving option out of the gate, and would be a heck of a lot cheaper. 

 

Here’s the play by Ruggs I mentioned. Anyone who hasn’t seen this yet, skip to 1:24 and prepare to be shocked. Won’t show up on the stat sheet but I had to rewatch this 7-8 times and I genuinely don’t know if I’ve ever seen anyone move this fast on a football field before. 

 

Was previously in favor of adding a bigger/taller WR to our group but speed kills and why not add to our group of Smurfs? Go Bills! 

[whatdrought]

@Dont Stop Billeiving - I love Ruggs and would be finding eschewing a “size” receiver if he falls in our lap, but he’s gonna end up a top 13 pick after he blows the doors off the combine, and I’m just not a fan of trading up that far in a draft this deep at WR. If we go receiver in the first, I love Tee Higgins... there’s some who say he’ll be way high as well, and he’ll be the 3rd off the board probably, but we have a chance at him I would imagine. He’s a good blend of size, speed, and catch radius. 

 

Shenault is appealing to me because of Debo Samuel. He’s shown that when used right, a guy who is more of a RAC specialist/mover etc, can be a good choice. I think Daboll would love him, and I have a sneaky feeling he’ll be our pick. Think of how much fun Daboll has with McKenzie. Shenault seems like a more athletic, larger, more physical McKenzie. What you said makes sense, and he definitely isn’t my first choice, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s Daboll’s. 

[Rbleyle]

On 11/30/2019 at 4:26 PM, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 35.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 42.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 

Good job on everything except forgetting to cut Kroft for a 6 Mil savings and no way Liuget gets 4.5 mil.  

Edited December 3, 2019 by Rbleyle

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Rbleyle said:

Good job on everything except forgetting to cut Kroft for a 6 Mil savings and no way Liuget gets 4.5 mil.  

Kroft getting cut is a distinct possibility.  
 

Liuget is probably not going to come back, as I’ve been convinced by another poster.  
 

I’d love to see them go after Hooper from Atlanta to pair with Knox, but he’s going to command too much money 

[Aussie Joe]

8 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I meant to say didn't start.  As in, when the season began.  The were still rotating Ford at Guard.  Yes, he's been a pleasant surprise and I like him, but don't see us getting into a holdout/bidding war over him.

 

 

He is now an entrenched starter regardless of what he was doing at the start of the season when no doubt they were still experimenting a bit to find the best combinations..

Also, Given concussion/ injury concerns over Morse, that are always at the back of my mind, I love it how they can bring in Feliciano at C and not miss a beat..

 

I’d be happy to have that versatility on the books for the next three years at least whilst JA completes his rookie deal...

 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

He is now an entrenched starter regardless of what he was doing at the start of the season when no doubt they were still experimenting a bit to find the best combinations..

Also, Given concussion/ injury concerns over Morse, that are always at the back of my mind, I love it how they can bring in Feliciano at C and not miss a beat..

 

I’d be happy to have that versatility on the books for the next three years at least whilst JA completes his rookie deal...

 

 

 

I'm not debating his value to us.  I like the guy.  I'm just saying he isn't such a name or performer that I think he needs to be extended early.  Unless your point is that you think he's so good that his value will only go up if we don't lock him up earlier?

[Aussie Joe]

18 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I'm not debating his value to us.  I like the guy.  I'm just saying he isn't such a name or performer that I think he needs to be extended early.  Unless your point is that you think he's so good that his value will only go up if we don't lock him up earlier?

Yeah... I guess that’s my point... 

 

Throw him some more guaranteed dollars next year and extend him through 2022..  Obviously within reason although I am finding it difficult to put a number on the deal..

 

I think if he sees free agency he will be tough to keep..

 

BTW... thanks for the thread..

Edited December 3, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[Virgil]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Yeah... I guess that’s my point... 

 

Throw him some more guaranteed dollars next year and extend him through 2022..  Obviously within reason although I am finding it difficult to put a number in the deal..

 

I think if he sees free agency he will be tough to keep..

 

BTW... thanks for the thread..

I guess I finish this season, see what plays out in the offseason and if he continues to be the guy and prove long term viability, they could lock him up mid season.  
 

As for value, I think he’d be in the 5-7 mil range if he knows he’s starting caliber and is rating out well

[ganesh]

On 12/2/2019 at 3:53 AM, wvbillsfan said:

I see plenty of speculation about AJ Green. I’m not really interested 

 

I want Roby Anderson. 26 years old. 
I know the draft is deep at WR but give me Anderson Beasley and Brown. That’s a really good wr core. 
 

I’ll spend my draft on the defensive line and corner. 
 

I’d also like to have Drake from Arizona to pair with Singletary. 
 

Resign our ERFA as well as Spain. Let Phillips and Lawson see what the get in the market and if it’s reasonable match. 

 

I think they will figure out to get Foster involved in the game plan for the next 7 games (including the SB).  They are developing Knox to be like a Jason Witten...so they really don't need that big bodied WR...but need more speed on the outside.   Foster can do it but is inconsistent...

[frogger]

On 11/30/2019 at 7:26 PM, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 35.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 42.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

Pipe Dream FA Signing -  Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons.  He'll cost some serious money, but the Falcons are in cap hell.  Imagine him and Knox on the field together.  He's the big bodied 3rd down receiver who Allen can high point the ball to.  Also, this is the kind of weapon that Daboll would love to have.  Even if we draft a WR in the first, Hooper would be a top receiver on this team.  He can line up as a receiver as much as  Tight End.  I would gladly cut Kroft and put that money towards Hooper. 

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 

 

I think you have put together a quality list of possibilities, but my wish list is pretty easy.

 

re-sign Phillips (3 years 27 million 20 guaranteed) the guarantee is the key to get players re-signed these days.

re-sign Keving Johnson, he's been playing great the last few weeks, good depth and good in Dime packages, 2 year 6 million 3.5 guaranteed 

re-sign Marlowe, he won't command much 

re-sign McKenzie 2 year 4 million, good gadget player, not in high demand by other teams.

Offer Spain a 2 year 10 million dollar contract, he might find a better contract elsewhere.  Good not great player.

let Lawson, Liuget, Coleman and Gore leave.

release Murphy and Kroft,  $>production, gives us almost enough to re-signed out own.

 

Since we are a year ahead of where we should be (year two of the rebuild is going ahead of schedule) I think we should spend a little in free agency.

Sign RG Brandon Scherff 5 year 75 million, 40 million guaranteed.  Top 5 guard.

Sign CB James Bradberry 4 year 44 million, played for McDermott his rookie year, upgrade over Wallace.

Sign DE Bud Dupree, yes I have him as a DE, need the outside pass rush 4 year 40 million.

AJ Klein played for McDermott, should be available as I don't see the Saints re-signing him, not splashy but solid.

then just a collection of inexpensive camp bodies that need a chance

 

Draft-

1-Laviska Shenault WR- not a burner, but is the physical WR Buffalo needs, falls to the end of the first because of the lack of 40 time.

2-Alex Leatherwood OT- long armed and agile, but not as dominating as he should be, could be a solid RT

3-Albert Okwuegbunam-disappointing year so far makes him fall.

4-AJ Dillon-6' 250 power back.

the rest of the draft BPA.

 

I'd move Ford to LG.  Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Scherff and Nsekhe/Leatherwood would be my sarting lineup with  Feliciano ready to fill in if Ford can't hold down LG.

 

 

[Virgil]

Lamb from Oklahoma had a helluva game today.  He can really solidify himself as a top WR in the playoffs 

[billieve420]

Tee Higgins looking good as well.

[DrDawkinstein]

Re-bumping this as a thanks to Virgil for putting the time in.

 

Let's Go!

[MAJBobby]