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Bills playoffs scenarios


djp14150

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stop using these playoff gueser machines they are biased against Buffalo

 

Can Buffalo get in with 11 wins ??

 

Highly likely.

 

The number of 11 win teams who did not make the playoffs since the 8 division format was created was only one I can recall. New England when Brady went down in game 1 and they missed at 11-5.  There may have been one other team but i dont recall. I think Tampa had 10.5 wins one year and missed.

 

right now the standing are teams with 5 or less loses

 

NE  1 

BALT   2 

BUF  3

HOU  4 

KC  4

PIT  5

OAK  5

IND  5 

TEN  5

CLE (6 losese)

 

IND-TEN play next week

TEN-HOU have 2 games left

OAK-KC play each other

PIT-BAL play each other

NE plays KC and HOU in the next 2 weeks

PIT CLE play next week

CLE plays BAL later

PIT--BAL week 17

 

If only 2 WC teams can get to 11 wins then BUF would clinch getting to 11.  next week IND/TEN loser, OAK, and PIT losing would mean only 6 teams could get to 11 and only 2 of then WC teams.  BE could clinch a WC with these results were they to win.

 

If CLE beats PIT next week ,, CLE jumps ahead of PIT and owns the H2H sweep tiebreaker in the standings.

BUF beat TEN and they have to play PIT and BAL. 

 

Its possible the PIT game could be a win and BUF clinches a WC

 

Conference record could be a decider in sorting teams at 10-6.  As of now CLE looks to have the best conference record because they already have 3 NFC loses   others right now have 0,1,2 NFC loes with more games to play.

 

 

How can Buffalo win the division

 

tie breaker order

 

H2H-NE won first meeting

DIV--NE is ahead

common games  BUF is 2-0 in non common and NE plays theirs the next two weeks at HOU and hosting KC  IF NE loses one they will have better common games record.

conference record  BUF owns this with NE going 4-0 against NFC

 

 

scenario 1---BUF is within 2 games of NE entering week 16.  BUF beats NE and wins week 17 and MIA beats NE. tie record bu BUF has beetter division record.

 

scenario 2--if BUF is within 1 game of NE they will need to win 2 and NE lose 2 to clinch diviision except if NE goes W-W-L at CIN then BUF wuld have edge because common games tied and then BUF has better conference record so being with one game and winning against NE means BUF just needs a win.

 

scenario 3---they are tied entering week 16 then BUF wins they control own fate with a W in week 17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

stop using these playoff gueser machines they are biased against Buffalo

 

Can Buffalo get in with 11 wins ??

 

Highly likely.

 

The number of 11 win teams who did not make the playoffs since the 8 division format was created was only one I can recall. New England when Brady went down in game 1 and they missed at 11-5.  There may have been one other team but i dont recall. I think Tampa had 10.5 wins one year and missed.

 

right now the standing are teams with 5 or less loses

 

NE  1 

BALT   2 

BUF  3

HOU  4 

KC  4

PIT  5

OAK  5

IND  5 

TEN  5

CLE (6 losese)

 

IND-TEN play next week

TEN-HOU have 2 games left

OAK-KC play each other

PIT-BAL play each other

NE plays KC and HOU in the next 2 weeks

PIT CLE play next week

CLE plays BAL later

PIT--BAL week 17

 

If only 2 WC teams can get to 11 wins then BUF would clinch getting to 11.  next week IND/TEN loser, OAK, and PIT losing would mean only 6 teams could get to 11 and only 2 of then WC teams.  BE could clinch a WC with these results were they to win.

 

If CLE beats PIT next week ,, CLE jumps ahead of PIT and owns the H2H sweep tiebreaker in the standings.

BUF beat TEN and they have to play PIT and BAL. 

 

Its possible the PIT game could be a win and BUF clinches a WC

 

Conference record could be a decider in sorting teams at 10-6.  As of now CLE looks to have the best conference record because they already have 3 NFC loses   others right now have 0,1,2 NFC loes with more games to play.

 

 

How can Buffalo win the division

 

tie breaker order

 

H2H-NE won first meeting

DIV--NE is ahead

common games  BUF is 2-0 in non common and NE plays theirs the next two weeks at HOU and hosting KC  IF NE loses one they will have better common games record.

conference record  BUF owns this with NE going 4-0 against NFC

 

 

scenario 1---BUF is within 2 games of NE entering week 16.  BUF beats NE and wins week 17 and MIA beats NE. tie record bu BUF has beetter division record.

 

scenario 2--if BUF is within 1 game of NE they will need to win 2 and NE lose 2 to clinch diviision except if NE goes W-W-L at CIN then BUF wuld have edge because common games tied and then BUF has better conference record so being with one game and winning against NE means BUF just needs a win.

 

scenario 3---they are tied entering week 16 then BUF wins they control own fate with a W in week 17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I didn’t understand a word you just said

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I know I'll get bitched at but  the ESPN machine isn't a guesser any less that your OP 

 

seriously use these and the half dozen not listed. 

 

2019 Playoffs. Buffalo #5 Seed, ESPN Machine, NFL, NYT, CBS - AFC Rooting Interests Week 12

 

 

or 

Steelers game is key to Bills making the playoffs

 

 

3 minutes ago, Estelle Getty said:

I didn’t understand a word you just said

 

Its called a LAMP

 

Look at my post 

 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost
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We don't need 11. 10 will be enough. The interesting question is whether 9 still might. The teams "In the Hunt" after the Bills are:

 

Steelers (6-5)

Raiders (6-5)

Colts (6-5)

Titans (6-5)

Cleveland (5-6)

 

The Bills need to finish ahead of 4 of those 5 in the standings. Of the five they have unbeatable 2 game tiebreakers over both the Colts (conference record) and the Titans (Head to Head). They also have the chance to knock off the Steelers because with a two game lead if the Bills won the head to head that would mean a 3 game lead and the tiebreaker. The team the Bills are most vulnerable to is obviously the Browns (because they have the Head to Head) but they also have a 3 game lead over those same Browns. The other team who the Bills could be vulnerable to is the Raiders who are currently 4-3 in the AFC but whose NFC slate is done and so in order for them to even be in the conversation they would have to have minimum 7 AFC wins (the same as the Bills would have if they were only to win one of Jets and Steelers).

 

Essentially if the Bills get to 10-6 I see almost no way they miss out with the tiebreak situation. If they finish 9-7 their chances are 50-50.

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6 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

Can we still win the division if we win out and the Pats lose to the Chiefs?

 

I believe we would need the patriots to lose to the Texans, chiefs, and us to be able to overtake them for the division.  (assuming bills win out in this scenario).  

 

this stems from new englands common game wins over Cleveland and the eagles.  We can only make up 1 game on that with Baltimore.    

Edited by ogham26
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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We don't need 11. 10 will be enough. The interesting question is whether 9 still might. The teams "In the Hunt" after the Bills are:

 

Steelers (6-5)

Raiders (6-5)

Colts (6-5)

Titans (6-5)

Cleveland (5-6)

 

The Bills need to finish ahead of 4 of those 5 in the standings. Of the five they have unbeatable 2 game tiebreakers over both the Colts (conference record) and the Titans (Head to Head). They also have the chance to knock off the Steelers because with a two game lead if the Bills won the head to head that would mean a 3 game lead and the tiebreaker. The team the Bills are most vulnerable to is obviously the Browns (because they have the Head to Head) but they also have a 3 game lead over those same Browns. The other team who the Bills could be vulnerable to is the Raiders who are currently 4-3 in the AFC but whose NFC slate is done and so in order for them to even be in the conversation they would have to have minimum 7 AFC wins (the same as the Bills would have if they were only to win one of Jets and Steelers).

 

Essentially if the Bills get to 10-6 I see almost no way they miss out with the tiebreak situation. If they finish 9-7 their chances are 50-50.

 

Remember that if it is more than a 2 way tie - head to head gets thrown out - so there is no such thing as an unbeatable tie breaker

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1 minute ago, ogham26 said:

 

I believe we would need the patriots to lose to the Texans, chiefs, and us to be able to overtake them for the division.  (assuming bills win out in this scenario).  

 

this stems from new englands common game wins over Cleveland and the eagles.  We can only make up 1 game on that with Baltimore.    

That would definitely be the ideal scenario to see, but is there a scenario in which we could take the division if the Bills and Pats finished with the same record (assuming we win in week 16)?  Does conference wins trump common wins?  If so, then 2 out of our 3 losses would be from the AFC while Pats would have 3 losses in the AFC if Texans or Chiefs can beat them.

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1 minute ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

That would definitely be the ideal scenario to see, but is there a scenario in which we could take the division if the Bills and Pats finished with the same record (assuming we win in week 16)?  Does conference wins trump common wins?  If so, then 2 out of our 3 losses would be from the AFC while Pats would have 3 losses in the AFC if Texans or Chiefs can beat them.

 

 

sadly no.   it goes

1) head to head

2) W/L in division games

3) W/L in common games

4) W/L in conference games

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3 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Remember that if it is more than a 2 way tie - head to head gets thrown out - so there is no such thing as an unbeatable tie breaker

 

Indeed. It is unbeatable in a 2 way tiebreaker. In the unlikely event of a 3 way tie break at 10 the Bills still look in pretty good shape. A 3 team tiebreaker at 9 the Bills are almost certainly out.

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16 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

Can we still win the division if we win out and the Pats lose to the Chiefs?

 

No.  The Pats*** hold the common games tiebreaker with the Bills if they finish with the same W-L record (presuming the Bills beat them in Foxboro).  At this point the Bills' only plausible chance at the division is for the Pats*** to lose at Houston and to KC, while the Bills win out.

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24 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

With the PAts* winning yesterday, winning the division is looking like a pipe dream. You have to look at Bills with a 10 win total (more likely than 11). 

 

hope nobody is unable to eat lunch or dinner this week because of finally realizing the Pats had the division all along

 

 

so at this rate the Bills are on the road WC weekend at the worst AFC division winner?

 

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36 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

With the PAts* winning yesterday, winning the division is looking like a pipe dream. You have to look at Bills with a 10 win total (more likely than 11). 

Sucks. We could be in the lead of 5 of the 8 divisions! We will be on the road no matter what the outcome. Probably against a team with less wins too.

 

 Cant see us losing 4 of our 5 remaining games. Playoffs. Bank it.

 

Edited by r00tabaga
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1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

stop using these playoff gueser machines they are biased against Buffalo

 

Can Buffalo get in with 11 wins ??

 

Highly likely.

 

The number of 11 win teams who did not make the playoffs since the 8 division format was created was only one I can recall. New England when Brady went down in game 1 and they missed at 11-5.  There may have been one other team but i dont recall. I think Tampa had 10.5 wins one year and missed.

 

right now the standing are teams with 5 or less loses

 

NE  1 

BALT   2 

BUF  3

HOU  4 

KC  4

PIT  5

OAK  5

IND  5 

TEN  5

CLE (6 losese)

 

IND-TEN play next week

TEN-HOU have 2 games left

OAK-KC play each other

PIT-BAL play each other

NE plays KC and HOU in the next 2 weeks

PIT CLE play next week

CLE plays BAL later

PIT--BAL week 17

 

If only 2 WC teams can get to 11 wins then BUF would clinch getting to 11.  next week IND/TEN loser, OAK, and PIT losing would mean only 6 teams could get to 11 and only 2 of then WC teams.  BE could clinch a WC with these results were they to win.

 

If CLE beats PIT next week ,, CLE jumps ahead of PIT and owns the H2H sweep tiebreaker in the standings.

BUF beat TEN and they have to play PIT and BAL. 

 

Its possible the PIT game could be a win and BUF clinches a WC

 

Conference record could be a decider in sorting teams at 10-6.  As of now CLE looks to have the best conference record because they already have 3 NFC loses   others right now have 0,1,2 NFC loes with more games to play.

 

 

How can Buffalo win the division

 

tie breaker order

 

H2H-NE won first meeting

DIV--NE is ahead

common games  BUF is 2-0 in non common and NE plays theirs the next two weeks at HOU and hosting KC  IF NE loses one they will have better common games record.

conference record  BUF owns this with NE going 4-0 against NFC

 

 

scenario 1---BUF is within 2 games of NE entering week 16.  BUF beats NE and wins week 17 and MIA beats NE. tie record bu BUF has beetter division record.

 

scenario 2--if BUF is within 1 game of NE they will need to win 2 and NE lose 2 to clinch diviision except if NE goes W-W-L at CIN then BUF wuld have edge because common games tied and then BUF has better conference record so being with one game and winning against NE means BUF just needs a win.

 

scenario 3---they are tied entering week 16 then BUF wins they control own fate with a W in week 17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


I went through the playoff machine last night to see what it would take to win the division. More or less, as it stands now, Buffalo has to win more games straight up over NE. That’s even if NE lost to Dallas, and Buffalo beats Baltimore, NE, and Dallas. We would be tied for common opponents (CLE and PHI), Division, and conference. 
 

Best chance of winning the division is Buffalo winning out and NE losing g to Buffalo, Houston, and KC. 13-3 seals it vs 12-4. 

Edited by Mango
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I think the algorithm in the playoff predictor machines is more coherent than the OP.

 

Win 2 = playoffs, simple as that.   

Possible to squeak in with 1 win if everything else breaks right, but that won't happen. 

Winning the division is about as likely as winning lotto.

Edited by KD in CA
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