Where does Josh Allen's performance rank him among all 32 starting QBs?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I voted the 12-15 range, but he is trending in the right direction and in my opinion will very soon be in the conversation for top 10 QB's in the league, especially because several on the list ahead of him are starting to trend downward.  He still has a lot of work to do to put it all together, and deliver on the promise of his abilities, but the door is certainly open for him.

 

I think we need to see our WR/TE group upgraded to top-10 before we'll see Allen upgrade to top-10. (Yes, Allen has to take a further step too)   JMO.  Brown is good and may become elite with more reps with Allen, Beasley is good but behind that we got?  Knox has potential but his hands need Elmers.  Kroft is MIA.  McKensie is very inexperienced as a WR and is trying to broaden his repetoire, but not there yet.

[theAteam]

16-22 but on the lower side of that range. 

[ILBillsfan]

Im

1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

 

538 has a QB performance rating that was developed from a multiple regression analysis and the ELO system. You can read more below. To save you time; the system includes everything passing, running, sacks and strength of opponent. Recent performance is weighted more than older performance.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

I created an easy to read Tiered chart of the current NFL starters. One thing clearly stands out to me, they have Josh Allen ranked in the 12-15 Tier. I find this ranking very fair. I'm curious where most 2BD posters would put him of the 32 QBs? SEE POLL ABOVE THAT MAKES EACH TIER AVAILABLE. JOSH fits with Carr, Murray etc. Is this fair? where do you think he belongs? another tier? Vote in poll above!

 

 

 

RK	QB	TM	ELO-QBR
1	Mahomes	KC	257
2	Jackson	BAL	251
3	Prescott	DAL	251
4	Wilson	SEA	230
5	Ryan	ATL	218
6	Cousins	MIN	216
7	Brees	NO	214
8	Rodgers	GB	210
9	Watson	HOU	209
10	Brady	NE	196
11	Stafford	DET	193
12	Carr	OAK	182
13	Murray	AZ	178
14	J.Allen	BUF	177
15	Foles	JAX	170
15	Wentz	PHI	170
17	Garappolo	SF	156
18	Mayfield	CLE	146
19	Brissett	IND	141
20	Goff	LAR	140
21	Tannehill	TEN	138
22	Rivers	LAC	136
23	Winston	TB	131
24	D.Jones	NYG	126
25	Fitzpatrick	MIA	123
26	Trubisky	CHI	110
27	Darnold	NYJ	106
28	Haskins	WAS	88
29	Rudolph	PIT	81
30	Finley	CIN	47
31	K.Allen	CAR	37
32	B.Allen	DEN	35

yhis is about how I would rank the current qb’s.  I think garrapalo is lower then where I would put him and Allen and Murray a little higher than where I have them.

 

that being said Allen is in the 16-22 range for me.  Next year I’d like to see him one level higher

[buffaloboyinATL]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we need to see our WR/TE group upgraded to top-10 before we'll see Allen upgrade to top-10. (Yes, Allen has to take a further step too)   JMO.  Brown is good and may become elite with more reps with Allen, Beasley is good but behind that we got?  Knox has potential but his hands need Elmers.  Kroft is MIA.  McKensie is very inexperienced as a WR and is trying to broaden his repetoire, but not there yet.

This is probably true, and I , like many here, hope we add a top tier WR next year. However, when I evaluate Allen, I try to pay attention to times when he appears to do everything right and the TE or WR do something wrong (like a dropped ball or apparent route mistake) and not hold that against him. In other words, he may be a top 10 but they collectively as a unit are 12-15 range.  Obviously this is not necessarily a "fair" evaluation, but it helps me formulate my opinion on Allen's future potential. Honestly, I am just happy to see the potential there and can't wait to watch it continue to develop.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

This is probably true, and I , like many here, hope we add a top tier WR next year. However, when I evaluate Allen, I try to pay attention to times when he appears to do everything right and the TE or WR do something wrong (like a dropped ball or apparent route mistake) and not hold that against him. In other words, he may be a top 10 but they collectively as a unit are 12-15 range.  Obviously this is not necessarily a "fair" evaluation, but it helps me formulate my opinion on Allen's future potential. Honestly, I am just happy to see the potential there and can't wait to watch it continue to develop.

 

My problem, I would say, is that 2/3 to 3/4 of the time I can't tell what happened.  Is the ball off because the WR should have been a foot to the right, or because Allen should have thrown it a foot to the left?  That kind of thing.

[DuckyBoys]

cant argue much with any of the qbs placements on that list  Kind of goes with the eyeball test

[Scott7975]

I voted 16-22 but was borderline 12-15.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What have you done for me lately???  (sorry to repeat this so soon) 

 

Josh Allen -- has had a passer rating of 110 or higher in three of his last five games, compiling a TD-INT ratio of 8:0 during that stretch. He's gone a career-long five games without an INT, giving him a span of 163 pass attempts without a pick (second-longest active streak behind Kirk Cousins' 177).

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I voted 16-22 at this point.... need to see a bit more good play to go to the 12-15 range.

 

I think on any given sunday you could be looking at the 10-24 with him. that's sort of the issue at the moment. but he's been pretty darn solid as a whole this year.

 

That's pretty much how I felt too.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I don't agree with the chart as a whole so I won't vote 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I guess I'll bump this up for the late afternoon group. We are missing some of the very vocal folks about Josh Allen performance.

[BullBuchanan]

Bottom of 16-22.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I guess I'll bump this up for the late afternoon group. We are missing some of the very vocal folks about Josh Allen performance.

 

Nice LAMP.  This was still on the first page ... 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Nice LAMP.  This was still on the first page ... 

 

You're welcome.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

cant argue much with any of the qbs placements on that list  Kind of goes with the eyeball test

I agree that this list matches the eye test well from my perspective. I wanted to be able to give people some names to go with their evaluation of where Josh ranks. We often hear things like "he's one of the worst, bottom 1/3,average" etc.When you put names to it things change.

Edited November 21, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Orlando Tim]

The difference between 10 and 20 to me is not huge to me and he is definitely in that mix.

[BigDingus]

I think he's in the 16-20 range, but putting him in the same category as Garapollo feels weird. 

I've watched quite a few 49ers games this year, and Garapollo definitely feels like he's playing at a higher level than Allen, Mayfeld, Tannehill, etc. 

[CSBill]

18 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

 

538 has a QB performance rating that was developed from a multiple regression analysis and the ELO system. You can read more below. To save you time; the system includes everything passing, running, sacks and strength of opponent. Recent performance is weighted more than older performance.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

I created an easy to read Tiered chart of the current NFL starters. One thing clearly stands out to me, they have Josh Allen ranked in the 12-15 Tier. I find this ranking very fair. I'm curious where most 2BD posters would put him of the 32 QBs? SEE POLL ABOVE THAT MAKES EACH TIER AVAILABLE. JOSH fits with Carr, Murray etc. Is this fair? where do you think he belongs? another tier? Vote in poll above!

 

 

 

RK	QB	TM	ELO-QBR
1	Mahomes	KC	257
2	Jackson	BAL	251
3	Prescott	DAL	251
4	Wilson	SEA	230
5	Ryan	ATL	218
6	Cousins	MIN	216
7	Brees	NO	214
8	Rodgers	GB	210
9	Watson	HOU	209
10	Brady	NE	196
11	Stafford	DET	193
12	Carr	OAK	182
13	Murray	AZ	178
14	J.Allen	BUF	177
15	Foles	JAX	170
15	Wentz	PHI	170
17	Garappolo	SF	156
18	Mayfield	CLE	146
19	Brissett	IND	141
20	Goff	LAR	140
21	Tannehill	TEN	138
22	Rivers	LAC	136
23	Winston	TB	131
24	D.Jones	NYG	126
25	Fitzpatrick	MIA	123
26	Trubisky	CHI	110
27	Darnold	NYJ	106
28	Haskins	WAS	88
29	Rudolph	PIT	81
30	Finley	CIN	47
31	K.Allen	CAR	37
32	B.Allen	DEN	35

 

That is a good find. .... I picked the 16-22 category and was about to post I would say in the higher end of that scale (16-18). This grade scale confirms that, a=has him slightly higher.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

So 86% of 2BD ranks Josh Allen somewhere between 12 and 22 , with it skewing slightly towards 16-22. Many of you who voted, mentioned you thought upper part of 16-22. It looks like we had a pretty fair and honest tally as no one was truly really out there. Unfortunately we didn't get some of the most strident opponents of his performance to vote. No surprise there, much easier just to spout off about something . I appreciate those so far who have taken a position one way or the other. Especially those people who feel he is somewhere lower than the vast majority think. Thanks the opinions, Go Bills!

Edited November 22, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[VW82]

I have him in the 16-22 range as well (though probably toward the back end). It’s interesting that as much as many of us have disagreed on here wrt Allen most of us have him ranked in a similar tier. 
 

Also, though I really like the Elo system I do think you need an element of eye test when it comes to QBs. Jacoby Brissett is definitely better than 19 and pretty clearly above several guys in his tier and the one above IMO. Murray feels a little high. And Lamar over Russell Wilson? Those rushing stats must count for a lot!

Edited November 23, 2019 by VW82