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Broncos 4th Down Conversion %

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Listening to Sirius NFL this afternoon with Pat Kirwin.  One interesting stat about Broncos this year ... they are # 1 in 4th down conversions with a 75% success rate.   They were discussing going for it on 4th down and generally speaking there is an increase in the number of instances of teams going for it on 4th.  Teams are being more aggressive in this area.  Buffalo is ranked 25 in this dept, with a 33% success rate.   Interestingly ... Dallas and Steelers (future opponents) were ranked 29 and 30 respectively.

 

Watch out for those 4th downs this Sunday ...

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I’ll just pray that leads to some short fields! That could be helpful, said the guy with a glass half full.  😋

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4th and Longs better not see Wallace on coverage. 


You know exactly where the ball is gonna go.

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3 minutes ago, OZBILLS said:

4th and Longs better not see Wallace on coverage. 


You know exactly where the ball is gonna go

The Bills can use that to their advantage. Bait the young QB

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4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

The Bills can use that to their advantage. Bait the young QB

 

True, but more likely Wallace makes the WR look like Jerry Rice.

 

Hope we go with Johnson and White tbh

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I’ll take my chances w the Bills D vs their offense in fourth down stats like these have a tendency to normalize over the course of the year

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Interesting. Generally speaking I expect the defence to continue its great work this season and so offence is where we need to win the game I think. 

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Helped by 4 on the final drive on Sunday when they were trying to come back and win. Not sure how many I have seen them go before other than in obvious end of game scenarios. They have lost 3 games inside the last 60 seconds. They have been driving in obvious 4 down territory a lot. 

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They are 9/12. I don’t know the scenarios but judging from their record, they’re most likely playing from behind, and in 4 down territory like Bill said. Defenses maybe playing a prevent or some kind of sit back defense as to not get beat over the top at the end of the game. Sometimes small stats like these can be misleading w/o knowing the context or scenario 

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1 hour ago, OZBILLS said:

4th and Longs better not see Wallace on coverage. 


You know exactly where the ball is gonna go.

I believe Wallace biggest issue is taller recievers, so if we keep that in mind we should keep him on smaller guys.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Helped by 4 on the final drive on Sunday when they were trying to come back and win. Not sure how many I have seen them go before other than in obvious end of game scenarios. They have lost 3 games inside the last 60 seconds. They have been driving in obvious 4 down territory a lot. 

 

I was going to say the same.  They have been close in the 4th Q a lot.

 

Put the game away early, but 20 points won't do it.  Denver will have a "bone in their teeth" about coming from behind in that sitch.

 

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Team's go for 4th down in such different circumstances that this stat is meaningless without further context.  Fourth and goal at the 1 vs. 4th and 15 in the final minute of a game down 2 scores.

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Ironically their offensive line is not very good.  It’s surprising to see a number that high because you’d think a lot a lot of those conversions are short yardage.  To be successful in those situation, you need a good line 

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2 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

West coast team coming east. We got it in the bag this week, boys

 

IMG_20181229_132723.thumb.jpg.570b0d0ae18ad17ae348a82f77cd08a6.jpg

 

Denver is not west coast, I live in Portland, OR and that is west coast.  It is a 2.5 hour flight or so directly to Buffalo

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33 minutes ago, nemhoff said:

 

Denver is not west coast, I live in Portland, OR and that is west coast.  It is a 2.5 hour flight or so directly to Buffalo


more towards ‘or so’

Buffalo, NY—Denver, CO

Nonstop (3 per week)3 h 50 min
Connecting 5 h 15 min+
Edited by Say When...

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1 minute ago, Say When... said:


more towards ‘or so’

Buffalo, NY—Denver, CO

Nonstop (3 per week)3 h 50 min
Connecting 5 h 15 min+

I was guesstimating...that's a lot of trips to Denver dude

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All that tells me is despite all their deficiencies the broncos have on the field for the most part they still know what to do on fourth down. Punting is not the way to go in almost all cases. Not sure why old man Vic knows this and cool guy Sean doesn’t

Edited by JoPoy88

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All information for Broncos 4th Down play available  at  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2019&year_max=2019&team_id=den&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&tr_gtlt=lt&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=gt&yards=&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=gt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=N&game_day_of_week=&game_result=&order_by=yards&down=4

 

Break up appears as follows:

 

Attempted 4th down:  11

Running play:   4/4    (Completion/Attempt)

Passing Play:   5/6

Sacked:             1    

 

Passing:

Flacco -  3/4     (Total 19 yards)

Allen   -   2/2    (Total 17 yards)

 

Rushing: 

Lindsay -   2/2    (Total 4 yards and 1 TD)

Allen          1/1    (Total  11 yards)

Sutton       1/1   ( Total  1 yard)

 

 

 

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Date Tm Opp Quarter Time Down Yards Location Score Detail Yds EPB EPA Diff
2019-11-17 Broncos Vikings 4 3:27 4 6 MIN 45 27-23 Brandon Allen pass complete short middle to Noah Fant for 11 yards (tackle by Anthony Barr) 11 0.270 3.310 3.04
2019-11-17 Broncos Vikings 4 0:33 4 1 MIN 15 27-23 Brandon Allen right end for 11 yards (tackle by Jayron Kearse) 11 2.590 6.280 3.69
2019-09-15 Broncos Bears 4 2:25 4 10 CHI 43 6-13 Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Courtland Sutton for 10 yards (tackle by Kyle Fuller) 10 0.400 3.380 2.98
2019-11-17 Broncos Vikings 4 1:57 4 6 MIN 30 27-23 Brandon Allen pass complete short middle to Tim Patrick for 6 yards (tackle by Mike Hughes) 6 1.430 3.970 2.54
2019-09-15 Broncos Bears 4 1:02 4 3 CHI 12 6-13 Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Courtland Sutton for 5 yards (tackle by Kyle Fuller) 5 2.730 5.600 2.87
2019-09-15 Broncos Bears 4 8:47 4 2 CHI 45 6-13 Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yards (tackle by Roquan Smith) 4 0.270 2.850 2.58
2019-10-17 Broncos Chiefs 4 13:44 4 1 DEN 34 6-27 Phillip Lindsay left end for 3 yards (tackle by Tanoh Kpassagnon) 3 -1.110 1.400 2.51
2019-09-22 Broncos Packers 3 6:05 4 1 GNB 1 24-16 Phillip Lindsay left guard for 1 yard, touchdown 1 3.550 7.000 3.45
2019-11-17 Broncos Vikings 2 14:13 4 1 MIN 7 0-10 Courtland Sutton left end for 1 yard (tackle by Andrew Sendejo) 1 3.010 5.830 2.82
2019-09-22 Broncos Packers 4 2:23 4 17 DEN 49 27-16 Joe Flacco sacked by Preston Smith for -6 yards 0 -0.130 -2.720 -2.59
2019-10-17 Broncos Chiefs 4 8:14 4 6 KAN 49 6-27 Joe Flacco pass incomplete short middle intended for DaeSean Hamilton (defended by Rashad Fenton) 0 0.000 -2.190 -2.19
Edited by ganesh

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So two 4th down tries that are not in the 4th Quarter when they are down and in obvious 4th down territory. 

 

Yea. They really don't go for it that often.

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So two 4th down tries that are not in the 4th Quarter when they are down and in obvious 4th down territory. 

 

Yea. They really don't go for it that often.

And both of those were 4 and 1 inside the opponents 10 yard line
I agree - these stats aren't of a team that likes to gamble on 4th down

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14 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Listening to Sirius NFL this afternoon with Pat Kirwin.  One interesting stat about Broncos this year ... they are # 1 in 4th down conversions with a 75% success rate.   They were discussing going for it on 4th down and generally speaking there is an increase in the number of instances of teams going for it on 4th.  Teams are being more aggressive in this area.  Buffalo is ranked 25 in this dept, with a 33% success rate.   Interestingly ... Dallas and Steelers (future opponents) were ranked 29 and 30 respectively.

 

Watch out for those 4th downs this Sunday ...

Bring it on!

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