Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Buffalo716

Advanced passing stats

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

He needs to figure out an answer for man coverage. Against a zone, he has had alot of success, partly because hes better at waiting and then zipping it in there when the receiver is open. 

I dont know if the problem against man coverage is him, the receivers not getting separation, or the play calling. 

But after yesterday's game where he lit up their zone, it's even more of a reason to figure it out because this week we have a good Denver secondary and New England who has more than likely noticed that we have struggled vs man coverage. 

 

That's just my opinion, and I dont have any advanced stats to back it up. 

 

No he definitely has been better against zone than tight man coverage but most QBs are

 

Our recievers are struggling to get consistent seperation vs man and Josh has been a bit more indecisive

 

That's a learning curve with a young QB that he should find answers for eventually

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Would you be willing to share the links or transcripts to the coaches who said they were disappointed with his play at the Browns?

Because I didn't hear that. 

 

Also interested in the numerous analysts who broke down the tape and said it.  Because I must have missed those too.  The closest I can come is Joe Buscaglia's assessment for the Athletic.  Number 1, I'm not entirely sold on Joe B as a film analyst and his stock went down when he flipped from claiming Star Lotuleilei was horrid to claiming he was the best run defenders after Coach McD said he had a good game.  Number 2, as film breakdown it's about as vague as a foggy morning.  " Allen robbed himself of multiple plays when he still had time to operate in the pocket. Once he bailed out, he usually scrambled to the right and tried a throw on the run"  Multiple plays - what does that mean?  2? 3? 5? 10? out of 41 attempts?

 

 

 

Yards per play and cover 1 both said it too. 

 

McDermott couched his words in the press conference but the announcers said on Sunday that he had the personal conversation with Allen and made a point of telling him to be himself. McDermott told them that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

He needs to figure out an answer for man coverage. Against a zone, he has had alot of success, partly because hes better at waiting and then zipping it in there when the receiver is open. 

I dont know if the problem against man coverage is him, the receivers not getting separation, or the play calling. 

But after yesterday's game where he lit up their zone, it's even more of a reason to figure it out because this week we have a good Denver secondary and New England who has more than likely noticed that we have struggled vs man coverage. 

 

That's just my opinion, and I dont have any advanced stats to back it up. 

 

This has much to do with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He wasnt perfect vs the browns but lots of young QBs are up and down

 

To be on the franchise wagon after Cincy and dip off within a few games is also silly in the scope of football

 

Growth is not measured in QBs in 2-4 games but a legitimate 25-30 game scope. It's not constant either , young QBs have hiccups. 

 

They need to bounce back from them

 

 

 

He wasn't just "not perfect". He was bad. But that is last week's argument. I have no interest in rehashing it. 

 

And I was quite clear in my thoughts last week about what we have learnt from the first 20 games and that the story of his career will be written in the next 20. 

 

I declare at the start of every season that one line posts in gameday threads are often not fully reflective of my views. I don't treat the gameday thread the same way as I treat threads the rest of the week. It isn't a place for detailed and nuanced debate and discussion. Whether it is an opinion on Josh Allen or on run defense or on Brian Daboll's facial hair my reasoned and nuanced opinion will always follow after. Gameday threads just don't lend themselves to that. They move too fast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yards per play and cover 1 both said it too. 

 

McDermott couched his words in the press conference but the announcers said on Sunday that he had the personal conversation with Allen and made a point of telling him to be himself. McDermott told them that. 

 

I didn't hear the announcers say that it was a personal conversation with Allen.  Allen said McDermott sat the team down and told them to "play fearless".  But, it's really a nit; McDermott and Allen have both said that they have 1:1's every week, so it's entirely plausible either way.

 

May I ask if you actually watched the all-22 and broke down every passing play in the game yourself?  Because I have.

 

The contention under discussion here here is that Allen played badly and that you were "off the franchise QB bandwagon" after the Browns performance.  It's quite possible that McDermott felt, or Allen said something that indicated he felt, that he was playing to "not make mistakes" rather than to "make a play".  That's not the same thing as saying McDermott and everyone else think Allen played badly against the Browns or regressed against the Browns, and I do think you can see that.

 

I like Cover1.  I like YPP.  But they don't always get it right.  During the game, they tweet "quick takes" which don't give a balanced picture, just as you do.  I commented on the Cover 1 article linked in another thread  , about the disconnect between how Turner leads off the article , by saying that Allen was right to take full responsibility for the loss - and the actual examples and analysis he gives which features points about what Daboll could have done differently, and examples of plays where a makeable catch wasn't put away.

 

For example, his first play breakdowns are of a pass that hit Knox in the hands, but he didn't haul in.  Second example is of a play where Allen makes the correct read on a blitz, a quick decision and an on the money throw to Brown.  He shows a still clip of the ball heading right for Brown's hands, but the DB is able to punch it out (on All-22, it seems like DB has Brown's right arm held back but it's subtle enough DPI that he gets away with it).    Third example is of a play where Allen executes a neat pump-fake to clear the LB and complete to Knox.

 

In other words, the examples he actually uses in his article don't seem to support the contention he leads with.  Allen did some good things, just as McDermott said in his presser.  Turner makes the point that the Browns blitzed Allen on 41% of his dropbacks and that " The Bills offense had some advantageous one-on-one matchups, but Daboll may have relied on them too much when he would have been better served scheming throws to give Allen easier solutions."  I agree with that.

 

Allen did "regress" to a couple "roll right out of the pocket under pressure" moves and make a couple bad throwing decisions, but those were like 3 plays out of 41.  He also made a couple of good decisions to throw the ball into the ground or away where last year he would have forced something and earlier this season he would have run backwards and lost yards on a sack.  IMO.  I believe I counted about 7 balls (5 first half, 3 2nd) that were catchable (albeit difficult) and not caught, or uncalled DPI.  Other teams have the hosses to haul those in, and we simply don't.  Even Brown, who I'm quickly upgrading from "good" to "superb", can't out-muscle DPI the way some wideouts can.

 

Anyway, bottom line is Allen didn't do enough to win a winnable game against the Browns and it's good that he steps up and shoulders responsibility for what McDermott rightly assessed last Monday as "not good enough in all 3 phases",  but I completely don't understand the "bad" "off the bandwagon" vs Browns, "Good, wait and see" Miami takes.  The Browns were a much much tougher test for Allen, and he didn't ace it.  But after watching every pass again I can clearly see huge progress over where Allen was last year at this time.  He was standing in the pocket, making reads, and getting a lot of things right most of a long day.  He's going to struggle when he's blitzed effectively 41% of the time, pretty much all young QBs will especially with no effective run game support.  He didn't get an "A", but last year he would have gotten a "D" or an "F" and two weeks ago he got a "C+" or maybe a "B-".  We all want an "A", and long term a C+  or B- isn't good enough, but it's still progress and not regression.

 

If you're "off the bandwagon" after watching that performance against a very tough D that schemed Allen effectively and that Daboll could have done more to help him solve and consider that a bad performance, really you have no logical reason to consider this week's effort against a much weaker D and less effective scheme to be "good" or to change your view.  Stay off.

 

And I think that's about all I have to say on this subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

No he definitely has been better against zone than tight man coverage but most QBs are

 

Our recievers are struggling to get consistent seperation vs man and Josh has been a bit more indecisive

 

That's a learning curve with a young QB that he should find answers for eventually

 

Yes this.  Josh may have played it a bit too safe vs. Browns at the cost of a riskier, more catchable throw, but we simply don't have the hosses to haul in those over the head or contested balls against man it seems.  😥

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

He wasnt perfect vs the browns but lots of young QBs are up and down

 

To be on the franchise wagon after Cincy and dip off within a few games is also silly in the scope of football

 

Growth is not measured in QBs in 2-4 games but a legitimate 25-30 game scope. It's not constant either , young QBs have hiccups. 

 

They need to bounce back from them

 

This is legit where I am.  The Browns game was a way higher degree of difficulty game than Miami or Cincy.  41% blitz, lots of man our guys struggled with.  To be on after Cincy, off after Cleveland, and on or at least neutral after Miami is kind of  a "football strange" YoYo

 

I'm neutral all along.  Allen is doing more right and showing growth vs last year.  He's way short of where he needs to be.  He knows it.  He's also short (IMO) of a couple pieces he needs, including a more reliable run game and an open-when-covered receiver.

  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I didn't hear the announcers say that it was a personal conversation with Allen.  Allen said McDermott sat the team down and told them to "play fearless".  But, it's really a nit; McDermott and Allen have both said that they have 1:1's every week, so it's entirely plausible either way.

 

May I ask if you actually watched the all-22 and broke down every passing play in the game yourself?  Because I have.

 

The contention under discussion here here is that Allen played badly and that you were "off the franchise QB bandwagon" after the Browns performance.  It's quite possible that McDermott felt, or Allen said something that indicated he felt, that he was playing to "not make mistakes" rather than to "make a play".  That's not the same thing as saying McDermott and everyone else think Allen played badly against the Browns or regressed against the Browns, and I do think you can see that.

 

I like Cover1.  I like YPP.  But they don't always get it right.  During the game, they tweet "quick takes" which don't give a balanced picture, just as you do.  I commented on the Cover 1 article linked in another thread  , about the disconnect between how Turner leads off the article , by saying that Allen was right to take full responsibility for the loss - and the actual examples and analysis he gives which features points about what Daboll could have done differently, and examples of plays where a makeable catch wasn't put away.

 

For example, his first play breakdowns are of a pass that hit Knox in the hands, but he didn't haul in.  Second example is of a play where Allen makes the correct read on a blitz, a quick decision and an on the money throw to Brown.  He shows a still clip of the ball heading right for Brown's hands, but the DB is able to punch it out (on All-22, it seems like DB has Brown's right arm held back but it's subtle enough DPI that he gets away with it).    Third example is of a play where Allen executes a neat pump-fake to clear the LB and complete to Knox.

 

In other words, the examples he actually uses in his article don't seem to support the contention he leads with.  Allen did some good things, just as McDermott said in his presser.  Turner makes the point that the Browns blitzed Allen on 41% of his dropbacks and that " The Bills offense had some advantageous one-on-one matchups, but Daboll may have relied on them too much when he would have been better served scheming throws to give Allen easier solutions."  I agree with that.

 

Allen did "regress" to a couple "roll right out of the pocket under pressure" moves and make a couple bad throwing decisions, but those were like 3 plays out of 41.  He also made a couple of good decisions to throw the ball into the ground or away where last year he would have forced something and earlier this season he would have run backwards and lost yards on a sack.  IMO.  I believe I counted about 7 balls (5 first half, 3 2nd) that were catchable (albeit difficult) and not caught, or uncalled DPI.  Other teams have the hosses to haul those in, and we simply don't.  Even Brown, who I'm quickly upgrading from "good" to "superb", can't out-muscle DPI the way some wideouts can.

 

Anyway, bottom line is Allen didn't do enough to win a winnable game against the Browns and it's good that he steps up and shoulders responsibility for what McDermott rightly assessed last Monday as "not good enough in all 3 phases",  but I completely don't understand the "bad" "off the bandwagon" vs Browns, "Good, wait and see" Miami takes.  The Browns were a much much tougher test for Allen, and he didn't ace it.  But after watching every pass again I can clearly see huge progress over where Allen was last year at this time.  He was standing in the pocket, making reads, and getting a lot of things right most of a long day.  He's going to struggle when he's blitzed effectively 41% of the time, pretty much all young QBs will especially with no effective run game support.  He didn't get an "A", but last year he would have gotten a "D" or an "F" and two weeks ago he got a "C+" or maybe a "B-".  We all want an "A", and long term a C+  or B- isn't good enough, but it's still progress and not regression.

 

If you're "off the bandwagon" after watching that performance against a very tough D that schemed Allen effectively and that Daboll could have done more to help him solve and consider that a bad performance, really you have no logical reason to consider this week's effort against a much weaker D and less effective scheme to be "good" or to change your view.  Stay off.

 

And I think that's about all I have to say on this subject.

 

Yep - I watched the all22 of the Cleveland game and I watched the TV broadcast back too. I haven't changed my initial view on it at all. Josh was holding the ball too long, bailing pockets and failing to see open receivers. I haven't changed my view after this week either. I was in wait and see territory after last week too. Before the Browns game I was still in trending towards Franchise territory.

 

You won't change my opinion on the Browns game. It was his worst performance of the season as far as I am concerned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep - I watched the all22 of the Cleveland game and I watched the TV broadcast back too. I haven't changed my initial view on it at all. Josh was holding the ball too long, bailing pockets and failing to see open receivers. I haven't changed my view after this week either. I was in wait and see territory after last week too. Before the Browns game I was still in trending towards Franchise territory.

 

You won't change my opinion on the Browns game. It was his worst performance of the season as far as I am concerned.

 

I have a marvelous plaque someone gifted me hanging on my wall.  Unfortunately it's inappropriate to share here.  So in honor of Chandler I'll leave you with this.

image.thumb.png.a8308564bd3ca129380f0d3b11b3ebfa.png

 

I'm not gonna try to change your opinion, you hold whatever opinion you want.  Doesn't make you right, of course. 

Just don't hop back on the wagon after Miami if you're so far off it after the Browns.  And worst performance of the season - mmmmm, nope, still Patriots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I can’t wait to see this years Passing grid compared to last year. I suspect a lot more greens 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/qb-grid/buffalo-bills/season/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/all/qb-grid

Me either.  They use to do some qbs throughout the season but I haven’t seen any so I can’t wait to see it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have a marvelous plaque someone gifted me hanging on my wall.  Unfortunately it's inappropriate to share here.  So in honor of Chandler I'll leave you with this.

image.thumb.png.a8308564bd3ca129380f0d3b11b3ebfa.png

 

I'm not gonna try to change your opinion, you hold whatever opinion you want.  Doesn't make you right, of course. 

Just don't hop back on the wagon after Miami if you're so far off it after the Browns.  And worst performance of the season - mmmmm, nope, still Patriots.

 

I am not back on the wagon. I am in the vacant middle ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep - I watched the all22 of the Cleveland game and I watched the TV broadcast back too. I haven't changed my initial view on it at all. Josh was holding the ball too long, bailing pockets and failing to see open receivers. I haven't changed my view after this week either. I was in wait and see territory after last week too. Before the Browns game I was still in trending towards Franchise territory.

 

You won't change my opinion on the Browns game. It was his worst performance of the season as far as I am concerned.

Thats just BS.  Josh actually had a decent game against Cleveland and played well enough to win the game.  If you watch many NFL games you would see that.  

That first missed FG  came back to haunt the Bills.  The offense got off track those last few plays but almost pulled it out anyway.   Both QB's in that game missed several passes and made mistakes, and that will continue to happen but less and less for Allen.  But 266 yards and 2 rushing TD's and no Ints is not a bad game by any standard.  

  • Skeptical 1
  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

No he definitely has been better against zone than tight man coverage but most QBs are

 

Our recievers are struggling to get consistent seperation vs man and Josh has been a bit more indecisive

 

That's a learning curve with a young QB that he should find answers for eventually

 

Yeah - if teams want to roll straight man coverage and don't have the corners to do it that can get you in trouble too.  Play action, bunch formations, pick plays, pump fakes etc.  There's ways to scheme open in man coverage.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

This is a good sign of progress. On the year he ranks 23rd in ANY/A but 10th over just the last 5 games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/18/2019 at 11:17 AM, Buffalo716 said:

Sorry I don't have any graphs or anything like that, but after rewatching the games I have noticed a big similarity

 

How good Allen is at throwing the intermediate ball, between 10-20 yards.. these are money throws and chain movers

 

These are tight window throws because they take place in high traffic areas

 

Going through the first 10 games of the season Josh Allen is sitting at over 63% completion on passes between 10-20 yards..  by my calculations that would put him top 10

 

All the detractors and nay Sayers who say he can't hit a receiver to save his life should soak that up ...

 

The 10-20 yard window is where great QBs make their money historically, and they can move the chains at will

 

Josh has been improved 10x since last season and his intermediate ball is on par with the tops in the league and he is only getting more confidence

 

Great stuff man!

 

Been saying that I don't think missing the deep ball so much this year is such a big deal because he's been money on these intermediate throws you're referring to.

 

These are the chain movers.  These are those big 3rd and long plays we see Allen connect on so often.  

 

He'll improve on the deep ball with time.  I don't think he'll ever be a great deep ball passer because he doesn't seem like the natural deep passer Mahomes or Wilson are.

 

But that doesn't mean that much to me if he can continue to improve as an intermediate passer and can become Elite in that range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a good sign of progress. On the year he ranks 23rd in ANY/A but 10th over just the last 5 games.

On the year, his 2nd Quarter ANY/A is 7.32 and his 4th Quarter ANY/A is 8.94! We won't talk about the 3rd Quarter tho lol

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/18/2019 at 6:52 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I won't give you stats but I'll give you a "picture worth 1000 words" chart or two off of NFL Nextgen Stats.

 

Here are the last 2 weeks play for Josh Allen.  OH NOES where are the >30 yd completions?

image.png.72935fd7e2cf34ac7f049ebdaafc8880.pngimage.png.a9c93c6a6c7781cae051be44f03d840a.png

 

Here are the last 2 weeks play for Drew Brees (click to embiggen).  Left is a win; Right is a loss. The take-home is that the "money" part of the field, is from behind the LOS to 15, maybe 20 yds past it.   There are only 5 throws past 20 yds, and they were all incompletions. 

image.thumb.png.c97593297afa5c7d84993b5bc7133e4d.png

 

Josh Allen will succeed or fail as an NFL QB based on his ability to turn more of those white dots between the LOS and the +20 line green, not based on whether or not he can hit a 30+ yd pass or throw a 300 yd game. (I know you know this, I'm speaking in general)

This seems like a perfectly cromulent response.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a good sign of progress. On the year he ranks 23rd in ANY/A but 10th over just the last 5 games.

 

Doesn't count sorry @HappyDays. You obviously didn't get the memo but we hate YardsPerPass because they said Allen played poorly against the Browns. ;)

 

Seriously though I like them I think they do a good job breaking things down and it is a good observation. The best element of Josh's game this year has been his intermediate level throwing. No doubt for me. He still isn't the best at the little dump offs, screens and swing passes (though I think he is better than last year) and his issues down field have been well documented but as far as I am concerned he has been very impressive in that intermediate range and they for me are the plays that win in this league.

On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 11:52 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I won't give you stats but I'll give you a "picture worth 1000 words" chart or two off of NFL Nextgen Stats.

 

Here are the last 2 weeks play for Josh Allen.  OH NOES where are the >30 yd completions?

image.png.72935fd7e2cf34ac7f049ebdaafc8880.pngimage.png.a9c93c6a6c7781cae051be44f03d840a.png

 

Here are the last 2 weeks play for Drew Brees (click to embiggen).  Left is a win; Right is a loss. The take-home is that the "money" part of the field, is from behind the LOS to 15, maybe 20 yds past it.   There are only 5 throws past 20 yds, and they were all incompletions. 

image.thumb.png.c97593297afa5c7d84993b5bc7133e4d.png

 

Josh Allen will succeed or fail as an NFL QB based on his ability to turn more of those white dots between the LOS and the +20 line green, not based on whether or not he can hit a 30+ yd pass or throw a 300 yd game. (I know you know this, I'm speaking in general)

 

I totally agree with this. The big 30 yard plus TD throws are nice but even the best QBs are doing well if they have half a dozen of those a season. You win in the intermediate range. And getting the ball out. They are almost the two things I look for above all else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I had to look that up

I thought for sure you'd get it after I saw "embiggen". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...