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Week 12: Broncos at Bills


YoloinOhio

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5 minutes ago, eball said:

So it looks like the Broncos' O is horrible on 3rd down and horrible in the red zone.  Plays to our defensive strengths pretty well I'd say.

 

Take the under in a 23-10 Buffalo win.

This might be BAllen's last game as Lock is set to return next week. He might play fearless......<lol>

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Micah Hyde, on his regular monday appearnace on that terrible Schlepp and the bulldog, said that no one is using the term "must win" this week, but that the team knows they need to come out strong and put this team down. Take care of business. That was encouraging to hear because you know the players are treating this game as a must win. 

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Recap of my quick take of Broncos Vikings All-22

 

It was a literal tale of the 2 halves, both in scoring and play design.

 

In the first half, Vikings came out dead set on establishing the run game early and were met with a stone wall.  When Cousins dropped back to pass he rarely looked beyond the LOS, let alone past the down marker.   The Broncos front 4 are legit and I honestly don't know why Zimmer insisted on bnaging his head against that wall for the entire first half.  Personnel-wise, this could be the best line the Bills face this year (and that's without Chubb!).   Cousins was rattled in the entire half and Cook could not get going at all.  Their best and longest deep shot of the half was called back on a penalty.

 

On the other side of the ball, I thought Vikings played too conservatively and allowed Denver's run game to put B. Allen in manageable down distances and he hit a couple of deep shots, and was helped by 2 huge PI penalties.  For some reason Fangio likes to use Fant as the end-round ball carrier, but he just doesn't have the speed to truly make that play work.   

 

I like the aggressive pressure game plan that the Browns deployed against B Allen.  The only reason that it didn't work was that Browns tackled like crap.   I also didn't see many Vikings stunts and alignment changes to try to confuse B. Allen at the line.

 

In the second half, everything changed.  Vikings abandoned the commitment to the run and went exclusively no-huddle.  Cousins started looking deep to rack up yards and points.  The key was getting the ball out early (obviously) because the Broncos pass rush from the front 4 is tough.  That happened only when Cousins started identifying the mismatches in coverage.  If Broncos have a weakness, it's in the secondary.

 

On the defensive side, Vikings started to sell out to the run, daring B Allen to beat them.  It worked.  Although they got burned on one long Sutton completion, they didn't let him score and eventually the drive petered out.  

 

So after 2 games, there's enough game film on B Allen to attack the weaknesses.  Broncos absolutely need to get the run game going to put him in a better position.  Vikings D is in the upper tier in the league, but Broncos had 74 rush yards in the first half.  They only got 50 in the second when they needed to milk the drives.   The second half adjustments were huge because it put the burden back on B Allen and he couldn't deliver.   

 

It's also interesting to see the differing approaches to pre-snap movements between Vikings & Bills defenses.  Vikings essentially stay in a straight 4 DL formation, maybe moving the DTs by a step or two prior to the snap.  The Vikings may have more overall talent in the front 4 than Bills, but the straight line approach wasn't enough in the first half against a QB who's still queasy in the pocket.  The Bills OTOH are much more active with pre-snap movements, not just with the DLs, but bringing LBs to the line.  Just like the Bills alignments confused Dolphins' young OL, I expect them to have the same effect on B Allen, even if the rush doesn't get to him.

 

This game could also come down to Tre's ability to cover Sutton, which would allow the safeties to cheat a bit.  X Rhodes didn't have a great statistical game covering Sutton, getting beat on a few throws and had a costly PI in the endzone (granted Sutton caught two amazing deep balls in razor thin coverage).

 

On offense, the blueprint is also clear and was set last week.  It will be criminal if Daboll plays #42 & #85 for more than token snaps on Sunday.   They will go nowhere against the Broncos stout line, as the better Vikings' run game fully demonstrated its futility against that defense.   Almost by necessity Bills have to come out throwing with a no huddle attack.  The proverbial pressure will be on the good Allen, and Bills will need to get their playmakers involved early and often.   If the Bills get an early lead, B Allen is not the type of QB and their offense isn't built to bring his team back.

Edited by GG
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In reading a preview of this game just now, it was notable that the Broncos defense struggles against hurry-up offenses.

Given that fact, and given that the Bills offense moves the ball most effectively when in hurry-up mode, it seems obvious what the gameplan should be this Sunday.

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57 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

Micah Hyde, on his regular monday appearnace on that terrible Schlepp and the bulldog, said that no one is using the term "must win" this week, but that the team knows they need to come out strong and put this team down. Take care of business. That was encouraging to hear because you know the players are treating this game as a must win. 

 

Certainly our season isn't over if we lose this one but it's important to not force games like NE and BAL to actually be must-wins.

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22 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Dude. Miami isn't even a bottom-10 pass defense this year, let alone worst all-time.

 

It's totally fine to point out that Miami is a bad team; it's ridiculous and unnecessary to state total falsehoods for the sake of marginalizing Allen's performance yesterday.


Gotta disagree with the Miami defense characterization.  Using DVOA, Miami has the 32nd ranked pass defense, doing a whopping 42.3% worse job than what would be expected from the league average pass defense this season.  They’re also ranked 32nd overall and 29th against the rush.

 

We beat a bad team with a putrid pass defense and Allen help us win that game.  That’s what was supposed to happen.  Good. But that game isn’t going to define Allen.  Let’s see what he’s got this week.  I’m sure there will be plenty to argue about regardless of the outcome. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Edited by BarleyNY
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2 hours ago, Logic said:

In reading a preview of this game just now, it was notable that the Broncos defense struggles against hurry-up offenses.

Given that fact, and given that the Bills offense moves the ball most effectively when in hurry-up mode, it seems obvious what the gameplan should be this Sunday.

 

Yup - I really hope we see that up-tempo 11 personnel for the rest of the season.  Obviously certain other packages will rotate in, but Singletary, Knox, Brown, Beasley and McKenzie are so easily our best playmakers..  Mix in Gore, Kroft and Foster for different looks.

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3 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

ESPN's Power rankings 

12. Buffalo Bills (7-3)

Week 11 ranking: 13gn-arrow.png

Most underrated player: Jordan Phillips, DT

Phillips is a known commodity among the Bills fan base, but the rest of the league likely will get to know him this coming offseason, as he has played himself into a sizable payday. Despite initially taking a backseat to 2019 first-round pick Ed Oliver, the upcoming free agent trails only Aaron Donald in sacks among defensive tackles with seven and has been a much-needed presence in Buffalo's interior pass rush. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

 

Phillips, White, and Hyde are easily the MVP's of the defense this season. 

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On 11/18/2019 at 7:33 AM, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Ford vs. Miller is a terrifying thought.  

It shouldn’t be as terrifying for Bills fans as Hughes vs Garrett Bolles is for Broncos fans! Seriously, this is the game to attack that Broncos O line. At times this year it’s looked every bit as bad as the Bills O line did last season. (A little better in the run game maybe, but awful in pass protection)

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2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

It shouldn’t be as terrifying for Bills fans as Hughes vs Garrett Bolles is for Broncos fans! Seriously, this is the game to attack that Broncos O line. At times this year it’s looked every bit as bad as the Bills O line did last season. (A little better in the run game maybe, but awful in pass protection)

 My guess is Lee Smith will be on the field alot this Sunday

Edited by Bronxbomber21
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2 hours ago, GG said:

The key was getting the ball out early (obviously) because the Broncos pass rush from the front 4 is tough.  That happened only when Cousins started identifying the mismatches in coverage.  If Broncos have a weakness, it's in the secondary.

***

This game could also come down to Tre's ability to cover Sutton, which would allow the safeties to cheat a bit.  X Rhodes didn't have a great statistical game covering Sutton, getting beat on a few throws and had a costly PI in the endzone (granted Sutton caught two amazing deep balls in razor thin coverage).

 

Thanks for the excellent summary!

Two big points highlighted above. 1. Courtland Sutton is everything we hoped Zay Jones would be. And Brandon Allen has learned one thing in his two starts - get the ball in his vicinity and let him make a play. 2. Most fans remember the Broncos defense for Von’s pass rush and excellent DB coverage. The pass rush is coming back Shelby Harris is their Jordan Phillips, helping to make up for the loss of Bradley Chubb), but other than Chris Harris there isn’t much talent at CB. So that former strength is now a weakness to be exploited. 

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