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Can the Detractors Now Admit Allen's Growth?

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2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I wrote it on another thread - but man... a lot of QBs i watched yesterday looked absolutely lost.  Watsons holding the ball and probably spiked 10-15 passes into the ground, trubiskey just flat out sucks, wentz can't hit a WR clean from 10-20 yards out, Goff can't hit a single pass that requires any type of velocity (but he can hit a deep ball!).  I think trubiskey is going to get dumped, but Wentz and Goff got paid. 

 

Goff's boundary throws look like peterman - and teams are taking away the deep overs.  Wentz has new receivers every week so part of it might be chemistry - and agholor sucks.  Watson was shocking to watch - had it on my tablet and it was just like... he couldn't deliver the ball on time and was constantly low on throws or getting sacked.

 

I said it elsewhere, but it bears repeating here: people consistently under-estimate the impact that having just a bit more time to throw has on a QB's accuracy.    Even on a play where he isn't under pressure, it's really hard for a QB to not keep "feeling it".

 

Watson's problem yesterday is that he has one great WR right now, Hopkins.  Almost just one receiver.  Hopkins was getting abused all game while the Zebras smiled and used their laundry to polish their glasses.  Fuller has been out with a hamstring and both the TE the Texans hoped would contribute off-season are on IR.

That's gonna be our problem against some teams like NE and the Ravens, too, unless one of our other guys takes a big step.

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10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Sure we can.  It's wrong.  The kid is improving as you say.  I see no reason why he should not continue to improve (and that doe not mean he won't have some more difficult games). 

 

You want the kid to be a star just past the midway point of  his second season.  That simply doesn't happen very often.  I can remember Marino as an exception, maybe Russell Wilson.  It's the most difficult position to play in sports.  It takes some time to master it. 

 

I'll give you Russell Wilson who's improved a lot throughout his career but he showed big play ability with his arm rookie year. Almost all of the franchise guys showed star potential right away.

 

To clarify, I'm not saying that Josh will be all done improving after year two. I'm saying that if we don't get some flash of greatness from him this year, it's very unlikely he'll ever become a franchise guy unless he's an extreme outlier.  

Edited by VW82
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12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I'll give you Russell Wilson who's improved a lot throughout his career but he showed big play ability with his arm rookie year. Almost all of the franchise guys showed star potential right away.

 

To clarify, I'm not saying that Josh will be all done improving after year two. I'm saying that if we don't get some flash of greatness from him this year, it's very unlikely he'll ever become a franchise guy unless he's an extreme outlier.  

To clarify, I think you've already seen a flash of greatness.  The greats all have the ability  to lead their teams back from behind in the fourth quarter.  My understanding is Allen is one of the top ranked fourth quarter Qbs this season.

 

Yes, he has a ways to go, as does every other young QB.  But I will say something here that I know will be controversial, and I am not saying you feel this way.  it's just that it comes to mind as I'm responding.

 

I believe (sadly) there are some Bills fans who truly do not want to see a successful QB in Buffalo.  They would prefer that the Bills not succeed because it gives them something to complain about, and gives them a reason to pound their chest and say:  See?  I was right!! on a message board. 

 

Granted it's not many, maybe a handful or so.  But all I can say is that reading the board recently, I have seen guys say they'd rather have the team lose as long as a QB throws for 300 yards.  I have seen guys readily admit the only time they want to come on the board to comment is when the team loses so they can harangue everyone with their negative takes. 

 

I keep these things in mind when reading the Allen posts.

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sure, we can discuss it.   List the QB who you regard as franchise guys over the last 20 years, I'll tell you my take on who and what I think you've missed, and discussion can take place.  Also helpful would be to indicate your metric for "flashes of being star players for extended periods"

 

But without some meat around what you see as supporting your contention, it just becomes "is" "is not"

 

I don't want to sound mean about SoTier, but when a guy actually goes and says something like "Allen didn't even pass for 100 yds against the Eagles" and lists Wentz as one of his "star player" QBs but fact, the two were within 2 net yards passing and both >100 yds - well, I can't get too excited about taking a claim on face value and discussing it until someone "stands and delivers" about what and whom they see as backing it up.

 

 

 

How about we do it the other way. I can't find a single guy in the last few generations of QBs, basically since Drew Brees, who eventually became a franchise QB who wasn't good or hadn't shown flashes of being really good by end of his second year of playing full time ( and some people would argue Brees did show those flashes). I think you could define good/flashes as public opinion among smart NFL fans with different rooting interests generally agreeing the guy is probably going to be good or has done something worthy of note. 

 

If you're looking for a metric to compare across eras that's tough. The game has changed too much so consensus among smart people that don't all have the same interest is the best we've got. Does Josh qualify based on that? Not among the people who I talk to, or the stuff I'm reading from people covering the league for a living who'd know better than you or me. 

 

I don't know SoTier, but I can understand giving a guy a break for messing up a stat. If there's some a history there of a hidden agenda to manipulate stats in favour of Wentz and against Allen or something then my apologies for saying anything. Just thought he made a good point, and I still think it's a good point.    

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32 minutes ago, H2o said:

I also remind people that Ben Ro's 3rd year was the worst of his career and his 5th year wasn't that much better. People are always looking for instant gratification. I compared it to a microwavable Hot Pocket. One minute and 30 seconds, boom, it's done. Sometimes it just takes time in general for players to develop. 

I really feel like for Josh to take another step which is beating the top teams, we will need more playmakers. I think as the receiving group goes this year, so goes Josh. I want to see our receiving group consistently get separation against a team like Baltimore or NE. There are not many, if any, QBs who can beat the top teams without enough playmakers. John Brown is one and Dawson Knox may become one. I just wonder what our receivers will do in 2 weeks if John Brown is shutdown.

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Here is my question:

 

He plays a few bad games and the thought is that he is young, needs more time, was known to be a project.

He plays one good game and it is how can you say he is not clearly getting better. 

 

It can be both. He can have a bad game and still have the potential to be a good QB. He can have a good game and still be an awful QB. Point is that until he plays consistently at a certain level there are going to be questions. Until he starts consistently makes good decisions, has proper footwork, shows improved accuracy. One good game against an awful team does not prove either way nor does bad game against a good team. 

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2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I really feel like for Josh to take another step which is beating the top teams, we will need more playmakers. I think as the receiving group goes this year, so goes Josh. I want to see our receiving group consistently get separation against a team like Baltimore or NE. There are not many, if any, QBs who can beat the top teams without enough playmakers. John Brown is one and Dawson Knox may become one. I just wonder what our receivers will do in 2 weeks if John Brown is shutdown.

 

He's doing a better job getting the ball out and committing to underneath passes.  He's still got improvements to be made on a lot of aspects of his game

 

1 - the short running back plays to the outside, those are extended running plays that don't work if the ball isn't thrown to the right shoulder etc. 

2 - 3rd down blitzing - he's gotta do a better job identifying, not taking sacks, delivering accurate balls

3 - Deep passing - obvious

4 - Pocket prescense - still bails from clean pockets.

5 - Eye discipline - did a lot better against miami, but its probably what cost us the cleveland game. 

6 - Playing a complete game - even against miami he had drives where he just missed 2 throws and it was an immediate punt.  

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8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

How about we do it the other way. I can't find a single guy in the last few generations of QBs, basically since Drew Brees, who eventually became a franchise QB who wasn't good or hadn't shown flashes of being really good by end of his second year of playing full time ( and some people would argue Brees did show those flashes). I think you could define good/flashes as public opinion among smart NFL fans with different rooting interests generally agreeing the guy is probably going to be good or has done something worthy of note.

 

You need to at least define what you mean by "franchise QB" and what you mean by "flashes of being really good"

 

Otherwise it's just shooting at a moving target.  No thanks.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You need to at least define what you mean by "franchise QB" and what you mean by "flashes of being really good"

 

Otherwise it's just shooting at a moving target.  No thanks.

 

Are we looking for mahomes and wilson?  Or are wentz/goff close comparisons to what we want?  

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13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

To clarify, I think you've already seen a flash of greatness.  The greats all have the ability  to lead their teams back from behind in the fourth quarter.  My understanding is Allen is one of the top ranked fourth quarter Qbs this season.

 

Yes, he has a ways to go, as does every other young QB.  But I will say something here that I know will be controversial, and I am not saying you feel this way.  it's just that it comes to mind as I'm responding.

 

I believe (sadly) there are some Bills fans who truly do not want to see a successful QB in Buffalo.  They would prefer that the Bills not succeed because it gives them something to complain about, and gives them a reason to pound their chest and say:  See?  I was right!! on a message board. 

 

Granted it's not many, maybe a handful or so.  But all I can say is that reading the board recently, I have seen guys say they'd rather have the team lose as long as a QB throws for 300 yards.  I have seen guys readily admit the only time they want to come on the board to comment is when the team loses so they can harangue everyone with their negative takes. 

 

I keep these things in mind when reading the Allen posts.

 

The bolded is actually a really good point. It does feel like Allen is better than most at generating 4th quarter drives. His big runs are momentum changing plays too. 

 

Think I've said this before but I cheer for the Raptors and have been posting on their board for over a decade. Some people are small and can't admit when they're wrong. What I've learned is mostly we're all fans and want to win, we just disagree on how to get there. It's all so beautiful and worth it when you're watching your team hold the trophy though. Try not to get too down on other people's fandom. That part isn't worth it. If Bills win big in large part because Allen is leading us there, I'll be shoving people out of the way to make room on the bandwagon and so will the rest of the doubters. At that point, you can say I told you so, and we'll be happy to admit the mistake and just enjoy the moment.      

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17 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I really feel like for Josh to take another step which is beating the top teams, we will need more playmakers. I think as the receiving group goes this year, so goes Josh. I want to see our receiving group consistently get separation against a team like Baltimore or NE. There are not many, if any, QBs who can beat the top teams without enough playmakers. John Brown is one and Dawson Knox may become one. I just wonder what our receivers will do in 2 weeks if John Brown is shutdown.

 

Really good point.  Knox at this point is not dependable as a go-to guy, and neither is McKensie.  They are using McKensie more in the regular passing game.  Really need someone to take a step.  I will say this: it depends a lot on what is going on with our run game.  If we are trying to run and Singletary is making plays, it's a different situation than if we're not or he isn't.

 

7 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Are we looking for mahomes and wilson?  Or are wentz/goff close comparisons to what we want?  

 

That's what I'm asking. 

 

The statement was something to the effect that there have been no franchise QB over the last 20 years who have not shown flashes of greatness their first 2 years.

 

"Franchise QB" in this board has been proven in the past to be one of those "Moveable Feasts" where it comes down to "in the eye of the beholder".  I don't think it's a ballerina stretch to think "flashes of greatness" is probably in the same bin. 

 

If discussion is wanted, I really can't discuss it without understanding what those terms mean to the OP and probably some examples.

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22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You need to at least define what you mean by "franchise QB" and what you mean by "flashes of being really good"

 

Otherwise it's just shooting at a moving target.  No thanks.

 

Ok. Here's a better attempt: go talk to 10 of your friends, co-workers, etc., (can't be Bills fans) who follow the NFL closely and ask them for their unvarnished opinion of whether they think Allen either is or is very likely to be a top 10-12 QB for a few years at some point (i.e. franchise guy). See how many say yes. If it's more than half then you have a likely consensus among smart NFL fans that he's going to be good. In my circle of people I'm getting something like 2-10. Most say it's too early to tell or he doesn't look like he's going to make it.     

 

You can get a pretty good idea of the value of any QB doing that.

Edited by VW82

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10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

The bolded is actually a really good point. It does feel like Allen is better than most at generating 4th quarter drives. His big runs are momentum changing plays too. 

 

Think I've said this before but I cheer for the Raptors and have been posting on their board for over a decade. Some people are small and can't admit when they're wrong. What I've learned is mostly we're all fans and want to win, we just disagree on how to get there. It's all so beautiful and worth it when you're watching your team hold the trophy though. Try not to get too down on other people's fandom. That part isn't worth it. If Bills win big in large part because Allen is leading us there, I'll be shoving people out of the way to make room on the bandwagon and so will the rest of the doubters. At that point, you can say I told you so, and we'll be happy to admit the mistake and just enjoy the moment.      

Well stated.  Really appreciate this perspective.

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He had a good game against the weakest pass defense ever assembled in my lifetime. Try to keep things in perspective here. He still has a very, very long way to go and 1 game does not prove anything. I hope he can consistently have games like that against NFL caliber defenses, but if you aren't at least a little skeptical, you just aren't being realistic.

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12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Ok. Here's a better attempt: go talk to 10 of your friends, co-workers, etc., (can't be Bills fans) who follow the NFL closely and ask them for their unvarnished opinion of whether they think Allen either is or is very likely to be a top 10-12 QB for a few years at some point (i.e. franchise guy). See how many say yes. If it's more than half then you have a likely consensus among smart NFL fans that he's going to be good. In my circle of people I'm getting something like 2-10. Most say it's too early to tell or he doesn't look like he's going to make it.     

 

You can get a pretty good idea of the value of any QB doing that.

 

I've seen a lot of ideas on this board in the decade+ Ive been here. Some real doozies too.

 

This is one of the worst, and least scientific ways of proving a point I've ever seen. So congrats(?) on that I guess.

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2 hours ago, SoTier said:

Bull manure.   QBs don't take multiple seasons to demonstrate that they're great.  Except for a few QBs in unique situations or who suffer injury (Brees, Smth, Rodgers, Stafford), good QBs show their stuff by the end of their second season as starters.  A QB's first two seasons as a starter is when he makes his biggest strides.  After that, his improvement is limited and mostly incremental and subtle even for the great ones.  No QB in the last two decades who has been a poor/mediocre QB for his first two years as a starter has suddenly turned into a great one in his third season.

 

These QBs all demonstrated their greatness early on.  Most were good as first year starters and improved even more as second year starters:

  • Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to the playoffs as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
  • Andrew Luck took the Colts to the playoffs every year he played most of the season, including his rookie season.
  • Russell Wilson took the Seahawks to the NFC Championship game as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
  • Carson Wentz was the leading candidate for the 2017 MVP as a sophomore when he was injured.
  • DeShaun Watson lit up the league as a rookie before an injury cut his season short, and led the Texans to the playoffs as a sophomore.
  • Patrick Mahomes played 1 game as a rookie, and then won the league MVP with 50 TDs as a sophomore.
  • Lamarr Jackson took the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie, and this year he's a leading candidate for league MVP.

 

Allen has not been "playing better and better", and claiming that he has is doing so is simply denying reality.  Yesterday was only the second game since the bye that Allen threw for more than 200 yards.  Against the Eagles, Allen didn't even throw for 100 yards.  While Allen threw for 260+ yards against Cleveland, he played tentatively and failed, once again, to hit any downfield passes.  Moreover, the Fins are a very poor team despite their scrappiness.  If Allen can play as well against the next five games -- Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots -- all teams with good or great defenses -- then we can say he's proving he's "that guy".  Given the lack of talent around him, though, it's more likely that we may be encouraged by his progress but not confident he's likely to be a franchise QB, so it will be imperative that the Bills significantly upgrade the offense around him, especially getting him a bonafide veteran WR1 whether they take a WR in the draft or not.

 

Brown is a #1 WR.

 

Josh has only played in 22 games, so he should deserve the same consideration after playing 2 full seasons since you want to compare him to several HOF'ers

 

2018

12 games

225.4 yds per game

18 total TD's

12 INTs

52.8 comp %

5-6 QBrec


2019

10 games

250.6 yds per game

20 total TD's

7 INTs

60.3 comp %

7-3 QBrec

 

In what world do you live that you can't see Allen is playing better and better? Try comparing Allen to Allen, if you don't see progression in such a raw QB coming out I'm not sure what to say.

 

Edited by Real McCoy
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5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've seen a lot of ideas on this board in the decade+ Ive been here. Some real doozies too.

 

This is one of the worst, and least scientific ways of proving a point I've ever seen. So congrats(?) on that I guess.

 

You disagree with the science behind a poll? That's a new one. It'd obviously be better to sample 1000+ informed people without bias but 10 will give you a pretty good idea most of the time as long as you're not picking idiots.  

Edited by VW82

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11 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

He had a good game against the weakest pass defense ever assembled in my lifetime. Try to keep things in perspective here. He still has a very, very long way to go and 1 game does not prove anything. I hope he can consistently have games like that against NFL caliber defenses, but if you aren't at least a little skeptical, you just aren't being realistic.

If one good game doesn’t prove anything, neither does one bad game.  Correct?

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17 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

How about we do it the other way. I can't find a single guy in the last few generations of QBs, basically since Drew Brees, who eventually became a franchise QB who wasn't good or hadn't shown flashes of being really good by end of his second year of playing full time ( and some people would argue Brees did show those flashes). I think you could define good/flashes as public opinion among smart NFL fans with different rooting interests generally agreeing the guy is probably going to be good or has done something worthy of note. 

 

If you're looking for a metric to compare across eras that's tough. The game has changed too much so consensus among smart people that don't all have the same interest is the best we've got. Does Josh qualify based on that? Not among the people who I talk to, or the stuff I'm reading from people covering the league for a living who'd know better than you or me. 

 

I don't know SoTier, but I can understand giving a guy a break for messing up a stat. If there's some a history there of a hidden agenda to manipulate stats in favour of Wentz and against Allen or something then my apologies for saying anything. Just thought he made a good point, and I still think it's a good point.    

John Elway "failed" until he got Terrell Davis and some great recievers like Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.   

No QB by himself is going to win anything regardless of his stats.  Also, are you trying to say Allen hasn't played good ?   So Bills won 7 games despite Allen? 
Bills won most those games directly because of Allen.  Bills aren't winning most of those games primarily because of Gore and Singletary. 

Allen may not be a "franchise quarterback" yet, but to say he hasn't played good and that he should be at a much higher level than he is right now is ridiculous.   Allen didn't walk into the NFL being an expert on reading defenses and blitzes, nor was he an expert in hitting guys on timing routes and working the short passing game.  I think he's done pretty well thus far and there is no reason to believe he won't continue to get better. 

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3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

You disagree with the science behind a poll?

 

 

Yes. Specifically the "science" behind this poll.

 

"Go ask 10 non-experts what they think about a player they rarely, if ever, have watched. That will tell you the future."

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7 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Brown is a #1 WR.

 

Josh has only started 22 games, so he should deserve the same consideration after playing 2 full seasons since you want to compare him to several HOF'ers

 

2018

12 games

225.4 yds per game

18 total TD's

12 INTs

52.8 comp %

5-6 QBrec


2019

10 games

250.6 yds per game

20 total TD's

7 INTs

60.3 comp %

7-3 QBrec

 

In what world do you live that you can't see Allen is playing better and better? Try comparing Allen to Allen, if you don't see progression in such a raw QB coming out I'm not sure what to say.

 

 

Bizarro world 

 

Someone asked earlier .... where are the detractors?

 

All  of  Josh Allen's detractors are busy praising Lamar 

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yes. Specifically the "science" behind this poll.

 

"Go ask 10 non-experts what they think about a player they rarely, if ever, have watched. That will tell you the future."

True.  That’s a statistical non-starter.

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1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

I'll give you Russell Wilson who's improved a lot throughout his career but he showed big play ability with his arm rookie year. Almost all of the franchise guys showed star potential right away.

 

To clarify, I'm not saying that Josh will be all done improving after year two. I'm saying that if we don't get some flash of greatness from him this year, it's very unlikely he'll ever become a franchise guy unless he's an extreme outlier.  

YOU GOT THAT RIGHT.

 

The simple fact of the matter is that the typical poster here is not going to believe you, and nothing you write will convince them of this.

 

The passage of time will do all the arguing for us.  Eventually, Allen's deficiencies will be obvious to all.  

 

I don't care about popular opinion here at all!  I just hope the Bills organization is out ahead of this and doesn't have to actually burn additional seasons in order to come to grips with what they have.

 

I have been saying all along that they should be able to make a decision at the end of this season.

 

 

 

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Joe Flacco - SB Winner

Trent Dilfer  - SB Winner

Eli Manning  - SB Winner

Jeff Hostetler - SB Winner

Mark Rypien  - SB Winner

Brad Johnson  - SB Winner

 

I think my list says something about what it takes to win a SB.  

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Last 6 games for Josh Allen: 14 TDs, 1 Int.

 

Also, he's super clutch during crunch time.  Dude is a stud.  We are lucky to have him.

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