Can the Detractors Now Admit Allen's Growth?

[Buddy Hix]

This was a very encouraging game. I have felt that there wasn’t enough progress this year compared to the last stretch of 2018, seemed like a plateau had been reached overall. I know some will call out this game bring against the lowly fins but I don’t think it’s fair to make such a point. This was the type of game I’ve been hoping to see. Let’s hope the O can build off this.

[VW82]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I’d just like to point out that your passing yards and passer rating regression lines are trending up.

 

That doesn’t support the contention that “the numbers tell us fairly plainly he will give you 150-250 yards every week” or that his production has plateaued.

 

Trending up if you count 2018 which I did say. His passing yards are pretty flat or arguably trending down a little in 2019 though. He's been in the 150-260 range every week this year. Think it's fair to say his production has at least temporarily plateaued so far this season. We don't know what the rest of the year will bring. He's doing a better job of playing mistake free. One INT in the last six weeks helps a lot.  

Edited November 18, 2019 by VW82

[london_bills]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Really? Why are you comparing Allen to Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers? They weren't who they are today in their 2nd season. Wilson was still leaning on his run game and defense and Rodgers was riding the bench. This is just weird. I'm not comparing Allen to anyone other than himself. Keep improving.

Those two as an example but basically any elite SUPERBOWL winning QB. 

 

Why? Because I want a QB good enough to go deep into the playoffs. 

[Big Gun]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Until you know 100% that you have your franchise quarterback, I think it is idiotic not to keep drafting them so you increase your chances.

So when do you finally know 100%, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years? How long do you have to wait?

[Gugny]

10 minutes ago, london_bills said:

He played well no doubt. Allen looks way better when he's aggressive (best word I can think to describe his mindset). 

 

Its the short misses (that barely happened today) but did a few times that frustrate me

 

The way I interpret "aggressive," is "in a groove," and I agree 100%.  Gotta keep the pace up with Allen.  He flourishes in that setting.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Trending up if you count 2018. His passing yards are pretty flat or arguably trending down a little in 2019. He's been in the 150-260 range every week this year. Think it's fair to say his production has at least temporarily plateaued so far this season. We don't know what the rest of the year will bring. He's doing a better job of playing mistake free though. One INT in the last six weeks helps a lot.  

 

In other words, if you select the data so as to best support the point you wish to support, you can find the trend line to support it.  

 

I don’t think it’s fair at all to say.  Among other things

-150-260 yds is a very wide range.  

-In general, the improvement players show from one season to the next is greater than the improvement within a season.

 

8 minutes ago, pop gun said:

So when do you finally know 100%, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years? How long do you have to wait?

 

Then there’s the little matter that if you keep using high draft picks on QBs every year, you’re (assuming good drafting) going to decrease the quality of the pieces around him

[london_bills]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

The way I interpret "aggressive," is "in a groove," and I agree 100%.  Gotta keep the pace up with Allen.  He flourishes in that setting.

He does. He started the season like that, first drive against the jests.

[VW82]

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In other words, if you select the data so as to best support the point you wish to support, you can find the trend line to support it.

 

I don’t think it’s fair at all to say.  Among other things, 150-260 yds is a very wide range.

 

 

I did career numbers and 2019 numbers. Is there some other range you'd like me to show? 

 

I haven't done the calcs but I suspect Josh's variance on passing yards is smaller than most QBs this year, so perhaps the range isn't all that wide compared to others. Watson, for example, has a range of 150-420 with a 270 mean. With Josh's average being about 217 we get a pretty good idea of his weekly production in passing yards. 

 

The other thing you notice from the graph is many weeks this year in which his passing yards increased his passer rating decreased. Not every time, mind you. Not today. Not vs. New England. Lots of weeks though. It would be perhaps more meaningful to look at attempts vs. passer rating but I wonder if this might be further evidence that he's in the correct production range for his current ability. As we ask more of him, he becomes less efficient and vice versa.  That might seem obvious but the more times he's able to maintain efficiency with an increase in production, that should be evidence of an ability to take on more than what he's currently doing (i.e. predicting future growth). Food for thought anyways.     

Edited November 18, 2019 by VW82

[Tesla03]

he's improving but he really needs to have these type of games vs good teams. 

 

any middle of the pack QB can put up numbers against the worst defenses in the NFL. Denver has the 4th best defense in the league, Cowboys 7th and Steelers 11th. lets talk after these games are finished. 

[BringBackOrton]

Will Daboll’s detractors also stand up and admit they see growth? Or do these kinds of topics only apply to chronic QB debaters.

[TheFunPolice]

Watching the league this year there are a lot of mediocre to bad QBs

 

Allen is still developing but I would take him over these starting QBs:

 

Darnold

Fitz

Whoever in CIN

Rudolph

Baker Mayfield

Brisett

Tannehill

Foles/Minchu

Denver's Allen

Rivers (2019 version)

Trubisky

Wentz (yup)

Daniel Jones

Haskins

Winston

Carolinas Allen

Goff

 

That's 17 guys I'd rather have Allen than as of today. 

 

 

 

 

 

[VW82]

In case anyone want to see what his progression looks like since returning from injury last year. Tells a pretty similar story to the 2019 numbers I posted a couple of pages back. He seems to be on the upward trend as far as efficiency though not necessarily in terms of raw passing production where he's kind of stuck in that 150-250 yard passing range. Almost all of the jump in production happened pre vs. post injury last year.

 

Edit: the graphs below say week 7 but should say game 7-22 which is actually week 11 last year through week 10 this year. 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by VW82

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

He did seem to have better touch on his passes today and his footwork was much improved. 

 

While he might not ever be the most accurate passer I think he could develop into a good one. Add in the size, mobility and arm strength and we could have a 3,800 28TD 13 Int type QB. 

[TheFunPolice]

Allen is a guy you can win with if he keeps developing

 

No QB is perfect.... There's the generational type talents then everyone else

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don’t think that’s a realistic take of the Dolphins recent performance.  They got thumped in their first 4 games to the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, and Chargers. But they seem to have regrouped with the bye week then changing QB to Ryan Fitzmagic and they’ve played the last 5 opponents pretty tough, including the Steelers and a win over the Colts.

 

They’re not even the worst squad this year, let alone the last 30.

 

I’m not saying they’re a great team or a strong team, but they’re not a “preseason game that counts” either.

Our struggles against them sure make a compelling case they aren't as bad as they've been. Fitz is always good for pulling a rabbit out of his hat, but these guys are truly bereft of talent on either side of the ball.

[Dr.Sack]

Allen is looking like a baller.

[Elite Poster]

Today's game was amazing. Can he do this 3-4 straight games vs going for 160 and maybe 1 TD which he slumped into for 3 straight? 

 

That's the whole point. Everyone needs to stop getting emotionally attached to players. 

53 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Watching the league this year there are a lot of mediocre to bad QBs

 

Allen is still developing but I would take him over these starting QBs:

 

Darnold

Fitz

Whoever in CIN

Rudolph

Baker Mayfield

Brisett

Tannehill

Foles/Minchu

Denver's Allen

Rivers (2019 version)

Trubisky

Wentz (yup)

Daniel Jones

Haskins

Winston

Carolinas Allen

Goff

 

That's 17 guys I'd rather have Allen than as of today. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baker and Wentz are the only ones I disagree with. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

Today's game was amazing. Can he do this 3-4 straight games vs going for 160 and maybe 1 TD which he slumped into for 3 straight? 

 

That's the whole point. Everyone needs to stop getting emotionally attached to players. 

 

Baker and Wentz are the only ones I disagree with. 

 

He has better numbers than Baker with less overall talent around him.

[Chandler#81]

13 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I mean no one is calling for him to be benched, but many are waiting for that signature game. This isn't it.

 

Beat Denver and then go play well on the road vs Dallas.

 What does beating Denver have to do with it? And what if Allen leads the team to a come from behind lead late in the 4th, only to have the Defense surrender and lose? Ridiculous post.

12 hours ago, Ben said:

Based on his first 10 games hes on pace for 3480 yds passing 21 pass tds, 521 rush yards and 11 tds with 11 picks for some perspective.

 

Thank you.

11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I’m a big Allen fan and believer, was even on draft night.  But I am going to be unbiased here.  
 

A thread like this is just as silly as a bash thread after one bad game.  I mean Allen and the offense were coming off a subpar performance, so seems premature to do a I told you so thread after beating up on a weak opponent this week.  
 

Keeping perspective:  1 game - vs a very bad team missing it’s 2 remaining best defensive players due to injury.  
 

Thrilled to see Allen and the offense have a great game.  But also not really a “I told you so” game either when we did what was expected of us.  
 

That being said, Allen has definitely progressed, and to me that was obvious even before this game today.  We got a much tougher schedule ahead of us, so let’s hope they build on today’s strong performance and keep growing.

 

Excited to see how he and this team performs down the stretch during the tough parts of our schedule.  

As has been rebuffed as many times as it’s been stated here, Miami isn’t all that weak. Since they made to move to Fitz, they’ve been in every game, barely losing to us then winning 2 in a row.  I think there’s more to this performance than meets the snarky eye.

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

As a resident Allen detractor, I thought he did a lot of encouraging things early in the season that were stronger evidence of growth than today . Not that he didn't play great today - he did, but this Miami Dolphins team is one of the worst squads I've seen in the last 30 years. It's hard to use them as much of a barometer of anything. It's essentially a pre-season game that counts.

I should have stopped after the 1st five words. Sadly, I didn’t. Really? 30 years?? So the 0-16 Lions and the 1-31 Browns are worse than this years Dolphins team? 

You should stop after the 1st four words of your screen name. It’s far more telling of your football knowledge.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Watching the league this year there are a lot of mediocre to bad QBs

 

Allen is still developing but I would take him over these starting QBs:

 

Darnold

Fitz

Whoever in CIN

Rudolph

Baker Mayfield

Brisett

Tannehill

Foles/Minchu

Denver's Allen

Rivers (2019 version)

Trubisky

Wentz (yup)

Daniel Jones

Haskins

Winston

Carolinas Allen

Goff

 

That's 17 guys I'd rather have Allen than as of today. 

 

Only one I'd disagree with is Goff. I think people are quick to pile on him but the scheme is the big problem in LA, so much so that the last two weeks McVay has basically abandoned it. Last night they were not running the McVay offense. It is a bit of a mess there to be honest. I'm not saying Allen can't pass Goff in time. Just saying as of right now I'd lean towards Goff still.