RUN DEFENSE FIX. YOU ARE WELCOME COACH

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, kirkwoodus13 said:

The 3-4 games of the season, the bills defense was vey good . In the jets game Bell was very effective as a runner and passer, even though he didn't have big statistical number. In a that game  one player in defense was hurt and subsequently missed the next three games.  The player that took his spot was a rookie last year and has been dominant on special teams. To me, its not a coincidence that our run defense started to look horrible since this starter returned to the line up. Number 24 JOHNSON needs to be benched or given a chance to compete outside for Levi spot. The starting nickel should be number 33 NEAL. He has been great this year on defense and special teams . When he was moved from safety to DB, I was skeptical. The move worked really well. Why the coaches went back to 24 is a beyond me. Neal has out played Johnson. He is bigger , better tackler, better in run support and cover skills is just as good. I am tired of seeing Wallace and Johnson getting beat. If Oliver could loose his starting job to Phillips based on performance, why is 24 still playing in front of 33. Put this kid back in and see how his physical style change this defense. He reminds me so much of Cam Phillips. Keep this kid on the field and our run defense is automatically better. You are welcome .

 

Are you his agent, or his mom?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Just showed you how Analytics do not prove that out.

 

Also Another one people wont like teams are 

 

4 Parts Offense

3 Parts Defense 

1 Part Special Teams

 

Play-action works regardless of the effectiveness of the Run game.  That has also been proven.

Conclusion

We have an ever-growing body of evidence that teams don't need to run often -- or run well -- to set up play-action. Play-action works for teams that run frequently, infrequently, well, or poorly. For the vast majority of teams, it just works. From 2011 to 2017, 196 of 224 team-seasons had higher yards per play on play-action dropbacks than on non-play-action dropbacks. This includes teams like the 2017 Lions (9.4 yards per play-action play, No. 30 in rushing DVOA) and 2015 Jaguars (1.7 more yards per play on play-action dropbacks despite being No. 28 in rushing DVOA and only running 31 percent of the time).

 

For every team observed to have a strong play-action game and strong rushing attack, I can find an example of an effective play-action team that has a weak rushing attack. For every play where a successful play-action pass followed a series of runs, I can find a play where play-action succeeded despite not recently running. There just doesn't seem to be anything there

.

Finally, there's no evidence of teams using play-action a lot seeing any less benefit to play-action. Coaches treat play-action as a fragile toy that can only be brought out under certain conditions -- only after running, and only if it hasn't already been used it too much -- but it's more like the tennis racket I've had since high school: always ready, and always effective.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/situational-play-action-passing-nfl

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

 

Haven't even brought up how you are more likely to get a holding penalty on a running play than a passing play - which i believe is also true.  Especially when you employ Lee Smith ?.  So you're more likely to gain fewer yards than on a pass play, and more likely to get a penalty (and the defense is less likely to get a penalty like PI, Illegal contact, or defensive holding).

 

To me Play action is like a pump fake - its not going to get them every time... but if you keep doing it and run out of similar formations - its not even that they have to respect it, it just creates some space.  

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Well paid coaches don't generally have easy fixes to any teams run defense.  That's a given.  Thank you.  What's puzzling is why a thread about easily fixing the Bills run defense is almost solely focussed on defensive backs.  I want my exceptional run defense to generally occur before anyone reaches my defensive backs.  By then, yardage, and possibly significant yardage, has already been gained.  By the way, safeties are defensive backs.

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Easier way (well not for Bills).  SCORE MORE POINTS.  Offense can stop the run much faster and effective by SCORING MORE POINTS

The defense could also help itself by not putting the team in a hole by allowing first drive tds, and long scoring drives to start the third quarter. It was very hard to score against the Dolphins last time in the third quarter because it was almost over before we got the ball. 

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Only thing is where the Bills are being gashed in the Run Game between the OGs has very little to do with who the NB is. 

excellent point.

1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Well paid coaches don't generally have easy fixes to any teams run defense.  That's a given.  Thank you.  What's puzzling is why a thread about easily fixing the Bills run defense is almost solely focussed on defensive backs.  I want my exceptional run defense to generally occur before anyone reaches my defensive backs.  By then, yardage, and possibly significant yardage, has already been gained.  By the way, safeties are defensive backs.

Neal played LB and works well as a box safety. he plays downhill.

I like the kid  a lot.
seen him on the line blitzing and playing like a deep LB.
situational football i guess. But as to run game? I like 33 on the field

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The defense could also help itself by not putting the team in a hole by allowing first drive tds, and long scoring drives to start the third quarter. It was very hard to score against the Dolphins last time in the third quarter because it was almost over before we got the ball. 

 

True. But what about the first half where we had the ball plenty and kicked 3s instead of scoring 7s. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

True. But what about the first half where we had the ball plenty and kicked 3s instead of scoring 7s. 

Or missed threes.  I am not defending the offense. I am saying the defense has trouble getting off the field pretty often.  Even the vaunted first goal line stand was only needed because they allowed a long drive.  

[billsfan_34]

Phillips gets hurt- run D worsens along with poor gap control from LB’s.

[london_bills]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Easier way (well not for Bills).  SCORE MORE POINTS.  Offense can stop the run much faster and effective by SCORING MORE POINTS

And take the lead rather than playing from behind aswell. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by london_bills

[Augie]

8 hours ago, Virgil said:

Spacing is your friend.  I can’t even read that block of words 

 

I have no idea what happened up there. I’m not getting graded or paid or anything. I am NOT working that hard without incentive. 

 

Make it readable, then we will see if we think it makes sense or not. 

[kirkwoodus13]

Some people on this board are so annoying. If  you want to complain about someone's  writing and not the substance of the opinion, please keep your immature thoughts to yourself. We are here to discuss BILLS football.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 hours ago, kirkwoodus13 said:

The 3-4 games of the season, the bills defense was vey good . In the jets game Bell was very effective as a runner and passer, even though he didn't have big statistical number. In a that game  one player in defense was hurt and subsequently missed the next three games.  The player that took his spot was a rookie last year and has been dominant on special teams. To me, its not a coincidence that our run defense started to look horrible since this starter returned to the line up. Number 24 JOHNSON needs to be benched or given a chance to compete outside for Levi spot. The starting nickel should be number 33 NEAL. He has been great this year on defense and special teams . When he was moved from safety to DB, I was skeptical. The move worked really well. Why the coaches went back to 24 is a beyond me. Neal has out played Johnson. He is bigger , better tackler, better in run support and cover skills is just as good. I am tired of seeing Wallace and Johnson getting beat. If Oliver could loose his starting job to Phillips based on performance, why is 24 still playing in front of 33. Put this kid back in and see how his physical style change this defense. He reminds me so much of Cam Phillips. Keep this kid on the field and our run defense is automatically better. You are welcome .

 

Agree.  Watching several all 22 games the nickel defenses were where the bills run D got gashed for the most part. My guess here is Neal is weaker in coverage so they run true nickel instead of big nickel. 

[kirkwoodus13]

But the true nickel, in this case 24 is playing like crap in coverage also and is a liability against the run, why not play NEAL. Maybe help him out in coverage by using a linebacker to assist in coverage.

[BarleyNY]

20 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

You hang 30 how much actual running is the other team going to do.

 

Yep Hang 30 and be able to run to close out the game STOPs the Run and your Defense didn't have to do a thing.

 

You run when you win, not win when you run.

The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of "establishing the run." There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.

 

There are two reasons why nearly every beat writer and television analyst still repeats the tired old-school mantra that "establishing the run" is the secret to winning football games. The first problem is confusing cause and effect. There are exceptions, usually when the opponent is strong in every area except run defense, like last year's Green Bay Packers. However, in general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

 

The second problem is history. Most of the current crop of NFL analysts came of age or actually played the game during the 1970s. They believe that the run-heavy game of that decade is how football is meant to be, and today's pass-first game is an aberration. As we addressed in an essay in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 about the history of NFL stats, it was actually the game of the 1970s that was the aberration. The seventies were far more slanted towards the run than any era since the arrival of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and the Cleveland Browns in 1946. Optimal strategies from 1974 are not optimal strategies for today's game.

 

A sister statement to "you have to establish the run" is "team X is 5-1 when running back John Doe runs for at least 100 yards." Unless John Doe is ripping off six-yard gains Jamaal Charles-style, the team isn't winning because of his 100-yard games. He's putting up 100-yard games because his team is winning.

A great defense against the run is nothing without a good pass defense.

This is a corollary to the absurdity of "establish the run." If you don't believe us, meet our good friends the 2006-2007 Minnesota Vikings (or, for a more recent example, the 2014 St. Louis Rams). With rare exceptions, teams win or lose with the passing game more than the running game -- and by stopping the passing game more than the running game. The reason why teams need a strong run defense in the playoffs is not to shut the run down early, it's to keep the other team from icing the clock if they get a lead. You can't mount a comeback if you can't stop the run.

 

Note that "good pass defense" may mean "good pass rush" rather than "good defensive backs."

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

 

You might enjoy this analysis 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/amp/

[Olympus]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Are you his agent, or his mom?

Why must you insist on making posts like this? It's not discussion, it's not intelligent, and frankly it's a great example of what keeps this website from being friendly.