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Hapless Bills Fan

Bills Offensive Production 2015-present

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Lack of elite talent/ matchups at WR/ TE 

Sloppy execution/ penalties

poor offensive scheme/ strange playcalls for down / distance

mediocre QB play at times

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Just to be clear, that last sentence is not what I was suggesting, at all.

 

There are a number of potential reasons behind our mediocre overall defensive output. 

Some of them should be laid at the feet of the QB, some of them should not.

 

For those that should, we drafted a known project QB who knew less about playing against strong competition than most.  He's adjusting to the kind of throws he needs to make in the NFL and learning to read the far more complex NFL D's.   It's almost as if when you draft a project QB, you need to expect him to take time or something.

 

I completely disagree with the bolded.

 

If anything college QBs who come from below average programs should have an advantage over guys who played with really good supporting casts, because they should already be used to throwing at receivers who are tightly covered.

 

I've suggested for years that this is a reason why QBs from places like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc never work out in the NFL, because they're throwing to wide open uber talented receivers in college who are being covered by guys who have no hope of ever sniffing the NFL.

 

This is actually my biggest concern with Trevor Lawrence. He has arguably two top 10 WRs as his top 2 pass catchers, a good line and an elite running game, and he still puts too many passes into harms way.

 

How's it going to get better once he's throwing at receivers who can't just out jump everyone for the ball in the NFL like they did in college? 

 

A lot of good NFL QBs came from college programs where they didn't have a ton of NFL talent around them, and they just made it work. 

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7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I completely disagree with the bolded.

 

If anything college QBs who come from below average programs should have an advantage over guys who played with really good supporting casts, because they should already be used to throwing at receivers who are tightly covered.

 

I assume you have some logic here, but I can't see it.  Both sides of the ball tend to be weaker, so why would you assume receivers are more tightly covered?

 

At any event, it's a point that many players, coaches, and evaluators have made, but You do You, and we'll disagree, that's chill.

 

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

A lot of good NFL QBs came from college programs where they didn't have a ton of NFL talent around them, and they just made it work. 

 

Examples?

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, not at all - I don't see anything on completion % by air distance there

And if there were, what I'm looking for is to compare completion % by air distance for different QBs.

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, not at all - I don't see anything on completion % by air distance there

And if there were, what I'm looking for is to compare completion % by air distance for different QBs.

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_2018-reg-all_1545937014127.jpeg.jpg

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

For those that should, we drafted a known project QB who knew less about playing against strong competition than most.  He's adjusting to the kind of throws he needs to make in the NFL and learning to read the far more complex NFL D's.   It's almost as if when you draft a project QB, you need to expect him to take time or something.

 

This isn't the Rockpile days where you have years to learn the game. In today's NFL you need to win now. It doesn't take multiple years to rebuild. That's why I never understood why they drafted a project QB. Big Hands and a Rocket arm means nothing these days. 

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On 11/14/2019 at 11:04 AM, Scott7975 said:

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_2018-reg-all_1545937014127.jpeg.jpg

Can you find his 2019 stats to compare to last years numbers listed here?

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5 hours ago, BuffaloButt said:

Can you find his 2019 stats to compare to last years numbers listed here?

 

I don't think they do those until the end of the season but I will look.

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On 11/14/2019 at 1:04 PM, Scott7975 said:

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_2018-reg-all_1545937014127.jpeg.jpg

 

That's exactly what I'm looking for, but  you realize that's from the 2018 season, yes?  Seems Josh has worked quite hard on those red and yellow areas and taken significant steps.

 

It seems as though Next gen stats has gone to these game by game "dot" representations for this year.  One could "roll one's own" by counting white and green dots but Man.  Here's the stuff I'm talking about.https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/season  [Anyone who wants to go off about Josh's lack of deep completions is invited to first compare to 3 other QB not named Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes]

 

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't think they do those until the end of the season but I will look.

 

They did them during the season last year, I think.  I believe someone (PFF?) who first came up with that style objected.  I think PFF has them but you need to be a subscriber.

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On 11/14/2019 at 10:25 AM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Just my opinion, but this is the first year since 2015 where our offensive talent increased over the offseason instead of decreasing. Very few QBs can operate at a high level without complimentary talent. Even fewer can in their first couple years in the league.

 

I also think the staff could benefit from going back and looking at what has worked for Josh this season and the end of last season and start doing those things with more frequency. 

 

The offensive talent that's been added in 2019 is not even close to the offensive talent that was on the team in 2016, and only a single instance of the loss of talent was due injury (Eric Wood).  Essentially, McDermott and Beane shed decent/good/outstanding NFL offensive talent and replaced it with non-NFL caliber/mediocre/decent talent.   

 

IMO, the lack of talent combined with the emphasis on passing rather than rushing, spells doom for Josh Allen.  It makes no sense to try to run a passing offense with a young, raw QB who needs to improve his passing fundamentals as well as learn the nuances of the pro game.  He's not good enough at this point to make this kind of offense work, especially with the limited talent around him.  At the very least he needs a WR1 which he doesn't have.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 10:37 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

I agree about the definition of "garbage time".   It's a very convenient way to diss QBs that posters don't like.  In today's NFL, teams can be down 3 or 4 scores going into the 4th quarter and still win games.  It happens almost every week, and sometimes spectacularly like in the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl.  

 

On 11/14/2019 at 11:02 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

When the Bills released Shady to roll with Singletary, Gore, and Yeldon, I said that the Bills running game would go down the toilet and result in offensive struggles, and I was attacked for being a "negative Nancy" and a "hater".   As it turned out, the Bills "braintrust" didn't want to pay McCoy because they planned on emphasizing passing over rushing ... but not smart enough to realize/recognize how invaluable Shady can be in a passing offense as he's perfectly capable of turning a 4 yard check down or a screen pass into a big gainer.  None of the RBs currently on the roster seem capable of doing that.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 2:45 PM, Jrb1979 said:

This isn't the Rockpile days where you have years to learn the game. In today's NFL you need to win now. It doesn't take multiple years to rebuild. That's why I never understood why they drafted a project QB. Big Hands and a Rocket arm means nothing these days. 

 

They spent a fortune in draft capital and talent in order to draft a project QB because they are clueless about offense.  McDermott/Beane fans become indignant when I write that but here's why I say that ...

  • Allen has no passing assets except his "Rocket arm".  He's not accurate.  He doesn't have good mechanics.  That he can run is a bonus but he's not a RB; he needs to be able to pass and pass well.  He was just not a good prospect.
  • Allen would have benefited from sitting for a year like Mahomes, but because McDermott picked Peterman and sent McCarron packing, he was thrown to the wolves more early on.
  • The Bills did not bother to hire a competent, experienced QB coach to actually teach Allen the fundamentals until this season.  Nothing says offensive incompetence than this.
  • The Bills put Allen out on the field behind  a non NFL caliber OL and without a functional receiving corps in 2017, and while both units have been improved this season they are no where near being more than mediocre.
  • The Bills didn't draft a top WR nor did they trade for a WR1 even though several were available both before or during the season.  Moreover, they didn't put in a claim on Josh Gordon who was good enough for the much more talented Seahawks to grab.
  • They released Shady McCoy, the one player on the preseason roster who could be considered a "game changer", to keep Gore, Yeldon, and Singletary. 

My guess is that drafting Allen was done because the Bills decided that they were going to draft a QB in 2018, and he was the one they settled on even if he wasn't a particularly outstanding prospect.  It's what the McDermott/Beane regime does.  They decide they need a certain position filled, so they go out and fill that position, even if they have to trade up to take a lesser prospect who's a project.  Jones, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds, and Ford all seem to fill that model.

Edited by SoTier
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's exactly what I'm looking for, but  you realize that's from the 2018 season, yes?  Seems Josh has worked quite hard on those red and yellow areas and taken significant steps.

 

It seems as though Next gen stats has gone to these game by game "dot" representations for this year.  One could "roll one's own" by counting white and green dots but Man.  Here's the stuff I'm talking about.https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/season  [Anyone who wants to go off about Josh's lack of deep completions is invited to first compare to 3 other QB not named Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes]

 

 

They did them during the season last year, I think.  I believe someone (PFF?) who first came up with that style objected.  I think PFF has them but you need to be a subscriber.

Yes, I knew is was for 2018.  I am just trying to help you guys find stats you want to look at.  If it isn't available to me then I can't give it to you. Yes, I believe PFF does do them if you subscribe.  That kind of statistical analysis is not important enough for me to spend money on.  Next gen had previously done this during the season on occasion but never for every QB.  I have not seen any done this season yet.  

 

Next gen has always done the dot ones as well.  It isn't something they switched to.  You could look at the pass charts and make the chart yourself if you want to spend that kind of time.  I currently do not.  Maybe at some point.

Edited by Scott7975

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45 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The offensive talent that's been added in 2019 is not even close to the offensive talent that was on the team in 2016, and only a single instance of the loss of talent was due injury (Eric Wood). 

Completely disagree here. Our current OL is better overall than any OL 2015-2017. Yes. Wood and incognito were good, but Glenn was inconsistent, miller was bad, mills was bad, kujo was bad, groy was okayish as a replacement. They were a good run blocking unit that was bad in pass pro.

 

At WR, woods started 10 games, Goodwin started 9, sammy started 8, justin hunter started 5, walt powell started 2, Brandon tate started 1, greg Salas started 1, and percy Harvin started 1. That's our 2016 WRs. 2 were available for more than half the season... right now we aren't passing well, but despite that brown has 50+ yards in every game and is pacing for some records. Beasley has come on more lately too, and I'd rather have Kroft and knox than can't practice clay.

 

McCoy and gillislee were good in Roman's system, but I'm not sure they're so far ahead of gore, Singletary, and yeldon.

 

And finally, my statement was that this is the first time since 2015 that the talent on offense improved over the offseason. Compare 2015 to 2016. Compare 16 to 17. Compare 17 to 18. It got worse every time. Now compare 18 to 19.

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