Jump to content
Virgil

Some Allen/Offense Stats

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

I seem to recall a pass in the Browns game to ODB where he had Tre beat for a big gain on a deep ball and oh it went incomplete  It does happen a lot but it's the focal point on this board for some reason

Agreed. They are called low percentage throws for a reason. Every single QB misses those. Deep balls are not often completed. Every once in a while you have a QB that makes those throws more consistently, and they are superstars like Aaron Rodgers.

 

There's a reason the deep ball isn't attempted very often.

  • Confused 1
  • Awesome! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

He shows he cannot read defenses correctly and misses reads. You can see it clear as day with he all-22

I'm guessing this is your analysis because that is not what I her when listening to people who understand the game way more than me.  Unless I'm missing information about your credentials than just a fan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TT sucks ....  Now that that is out of the way ..

 

Let me repeat the stats I dug up and posted earlier 

 

  Comp % YPG RATE 4QC GWD
QB 1 62.1 235.3 85.7 2 3
JA 59.9 213.2 81.6 3 4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE  Josh's season isn't over 

 

QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

I seem to recall a pass in the Browns game to ODB where he had Tre beat for a big gain on a deep ball and oh it went incomplete  It does happen a lot but it's the focal point on this board for some reason

 

Funny how that works.  And if deep throws were high percentage plays that's all we would see on every down. 

 

Allen needs to start hitting these throws once & a while.  My guess is that the problem is not all on Allen.  His WR's don't exactly track the ball down when it's in the air and I still can't get the herky, jerky movements of McKenzie out of my mind as he try's to find the ball.

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Or maybe Sullivan can comment on the RB's (healthy McCoy), TE's and WR's that Tyrod had compared to Allen's over his first 20 starts.

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Awesome! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed in the "Allen can't hit the deep ball" argument is two things: We have seen him hit those passes before, both in college and last year, and this offense is creating opportunities for it. At some point, he's going to connect- and then he's going to continue connecting. My one complaint with Allen, and I don't even know if complaint is the right word- more like slight concern, is that he's a very emotional player. When he's up he's up, and when he's down he's down. It's the old school gunslinger mentality. That being said, once he gets that monkey off his back, watch out.

  • Haha (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sullivan wrote about football for a long time. You'd think he would understand it better.

  • Haha (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

 

"But mah hot take..." - Jerry Sullivan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HappyDays said:

Sullivan wrote about football for a long time. You'd think he would understand it better.

 

I actually think he probably does.  He just goes for the "hot take" and the clickbait

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Funny how that works.  And if deep throws were high percentage plays that's all we would see on every down. 

 

Allen needs to start hitting these throws once & a while.  My guess is that the problem is not all on Allen.  His WR's don't exactly track the ball down when it's in the air and I still can't get the herky, jerky movements of McKenzie out of my mind as he try's to find the ball.

 

 

Absolutely agree.  You do keep trying because I 'm confident he will hit some of these eventually.  I still remember Losman hitting those three bombs to Evans vs the Texans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

I guarantee you all $100 that we would have beaten Jax in the playoffs if Allen was playing that game after two seasons of starting.

 

Or you’d be making excuses for the poor talent around him. 

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Meh 1
  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I actually think he probably does.  He just goes for the "hot take" and the clickbait

you don't get followers just stating the obvious have to put out takes that get people talking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

TT sucks ....  Now that that is out of the way ..

 

Let me repeat the stats I dug up and posted earlier 

 

  Comp % YPG RATE 4QC GWD
QB 1 62.1 235.3 85.7 2 3
JA 59.9 213.2 81.6 3 4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE  Josh's season isn't over 

 

QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

 

I'll bite because I have no idea who QB 1 is.  Now looking at those numbers I would say they're pretty close but then if I only have those numbers to go by then trying to compare them and reach an informed conclusion is impossible without knowing the following:

 

*  Who were the offensive lineman for each QB.

 

*  Who were the WR's

 

*  Who were the TE's

 

*  Who were the RB's

 

* Who were the coaches

 

* Can you provide some details on the game results.  For instance a check down QB is going to pad their stats very nicely if they play in a few more games in which they trail by multiple scores and are facing prevent defenses. 

 

So I'm curious who is QB #1?

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 

 

For most of his time here I'd have been "yea but screw the stats just watch the games.... Allen plays nothing like Tyrod. And then the last few weeks happened. I called Sunday Tyrod-esque long before seeing these stats." It is less whether the numbers are the same as Tyrod for me.... they will be what will be.... but if he starts playing like him regularly we have a problem.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

 

But then that was Sullivan's intention - no?

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'll bite because I have no idea who QB 1 is.  Now looking at those numbers I would say they're pretty close but then if I only have those numbers to go by then trying to compare them and reach an informed conclusion is impossible without knowing the following:

 

*  Who were the offensive lineman for each QB.

*  Who were the WR's

*  Who were the TE's

*  Who were the RB's

* Who were the coaches

 

* Can you provide some details on the game results.  For instance a check down QB is going to pad their stats very nicely if they play in a few more games in which they trail by multiple scores and are facing prevent defenses. 

 

So I'm curious who is QB #1?

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

  • Awesome! (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty certain its been hammered over and over into Allen that he simply can't turn the ball over with interceptions. Allen is a "Brett Favre" style gunslinger that this regime has forced into a game manager type. 

 

What happened in the last two games?

 

Washington 20 attempts passing vs 39 rushes. Allen 14 of 20 for 160 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD. QBR of 110.4 

 

Cleveland 41 pass attempts vs 20 rushes. Allen 21 of 41 for 266 yards, 2 rushing TDs. QBR of 73.8

 

Both opposing teams were "bad" due to their record of wins. However, lets look at the strength of both defenses.

 

The Redskins defense was bad everywhere save their defensive line was stout with two first rounders and although they aren't that good stat wise at stopping the run, that line can be formidable! Case in point, Frank Gore a 1.4 YPC against them. Meanwhile "motor" ripped them for 20 carries, 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC average. 

 

The Browns strength was in their #2 in the NFL in sacks DE Miles Garrett and their #7th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed by a defense. This same defense was 28th in yards per carry allowed rushing, 27th in rushing yards allowed. Singletary only given 8 carries for 42 yards, a 5.2 YPC avg. Frank Gore 5 carries for 12 yards, a 2.4 YPC avg. 

 

Believe it or not the 1988 12-4 Buffalo Bills had 454 pass attempts, 528 rush attempts with Jim Kelly who had a 59.5 completion percentage. The Bills ran the ball more in those years and yet were more successful passing because it was a run first offense. 1989, 478 passing, 532 rushing. 1990 13-3 Bills 425 passing, 479 rushing.

This run first offense helped develop QB Jim Kelly into a top passer in my point. 

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Awesome! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

 

No no no... Allen has played almost a full year and a half and he's still not perfect. He's a bust. We should have traded up for Mayfield. Or for Darnold. We should have taken Right Josh. Tank for Tua! Lose for Lawrence! Trade for Cam! Allen suks. 

  • Haha (+1) 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just amazed that anyone follows Jerry Sullivan on Twitter.

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Awesome! (+1) 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

 

Yes they do.  However, I can't point to many examples where a QB was downright BAD in their second season and became something good....and right now he's a BAD QB.  

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Skeptical 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Or you’d be making excuses for the poor talent around him. 

 

No, I'd actually be paying you the $100..........

 

BTW, @plenzmd1, can I borrow like $25k to cover this past-tense hypothetical bet once time machines are invented?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

So what Jerry is saying is Rookie Allen is equal to or better than Vet Tyrod. That’s actually great news I m o. 

Flip side is that the highest drafted qb in Bills history is playing at an equal level as a 6th round pick who some thought should switch positions and is now a career backup. 
 

any knee jerk reactions on Allen at this point is dumb.  But a reason why I wanted to move on from Tyrod was he wasn’t a game changer.  He wasn’t going to be the reason you lost, but he wasn’t the reason you won either.  Allen has kinda been like that, with a few flashes.  We need more. 

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...