QB who can pass to victory - a myth?

[MAJBobby]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

@MAJBobby, even you can't possibly believe the last 20 years have been trying to duplicate the offense of 1995.

 

That would be quite "out there" as an assertion, and easy to refute.

 

The point is, almost all successful offenses have both a good passing and a good rushing threat.  Some games rely more upon one than the other, but they both need to be operational.

I agree with the overall premise that Both need to be effective. However in today’s NFL I contend passing is more important. How many years have we led the league in Rushing or in the top 5 that we haven’t even come close to sniffing the playoffs let alone winning 

2 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

No, and that's a fair point. but as I mentioned in my original post I'm not claiming the numbers show cause or effect. I was actually responding to the following which seemed kind of superficial:

 

 

"For games where they had <200 passing yards, teams won 44% of their games & scored an avg. of 17.7 pts per game. For 200-299 passing yards, teams won 52% of their games & scored an avg. of 23.3 pts per game. For 300+ passing yards, teams won 55% of their games & scored an avg. of 29.0 pts per game.

 

To me, it looks like passing yards have a strong relationship with winning"

 

I expanded on that and included rushing just because I was interested and was surprised at the contrast. 

 

For the record, my preference would be we run for 120 and pass for 320 every game

 

I agree with that as well in terms of what I would like the offense to look like. However I fear that McD doesn’t see it that way. 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I agree with the overall premise that Both need to be effective. However in today’s NFL I contend passing is more important. How many years have we led the league in Rushing or in the top 5 that we haven’t even come close to sniffing the playoffs let alone winning 

I agree with that as well in terms of what I would like the offense to look like. However I fear that McD doesn’t see it that way. 

 

McDermott does see it that way but he just doesn't have the QB to get it done right now.  He specifically stated he wants to see our offense take the next step.  Where are we the worst on offense?  Passing.  

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

McDermott does see it that way but he just doesn't have the QB to get it done right now.  He specifically stated he wants to see our offense take the next step.  Where are we the worst on offense?  Passing.  

and he has been saying that well since he took over. Reality is the way his staff calls games contradicts what he says. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

and he has been saying that well since he took over. Reality is the way his staff calls games contradicts what he says. 

 

don't agree with you here.  I think it's the execution...that's the problem.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

don't agree with you here.  I think it's the execution...that's the problem.

ahhh the OTHER McConservatism. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

ahhh the OTHER McConservatism. 

 

ahhh...MAJBobby cannot handle another person disagreeing with him.  Grow up.

[MAJBobby]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

ahhh...MAJBobby cannot handle another person disagreeing with him.  Grow up.

nope I can handle it. Just pointing out that that is standard coach speak that has been said every week. 
 

shouldn’t the coaches actually address the execution then?

 

Same can be said with “gap sound”. Everyone says it. Every week same thing Gashed on Ground. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

nope I can handle it. Just pointing out that that is standard coach speak that has been said every week. 
 

shouldn’t the coaches actually address the execution then?

 

No you really can't.  You don't handle other peoples very well and it's well known on this board and BBMB when you were there.

 

"Shouldn't the coaches address the execution".  What do you think practice is for?

[MAJBobby]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

No you really can't.  You don't handle other peoples very well and it's well known on this board and BBMB when you were there.

 

"Shouldn't the coaches address the execution".  What do you think practice is for?

Ooo no BBMB. Please tell me about it that should be fun. 
 

Seems ineffective then when it is the same thing week after week. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Ooo no BBMB. Please tell me about it that should be fun. 
 

Seems ineffective then when it is the same thing week after week. 

 

So if you're struggling on Sundays, it's always because practice is ineffective with the execution.

So I guess every offense that struggles, it's because of ineffective practices?  So Tyrod really wasn't a bad QB...we just had ineffective practices.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So if you're struggling on Sundays, it's always because practice is ineffective with the execution.

So I guess every offense that struggles, it's because of ineffective practices?  So Tyrod really wasn't a bad QB...we just had ineffective practices.  

Tyrod was a bad QB. He was at his ceiling and starting to regress. 
 

the definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results. So their practice obviously isn’t shoring up execution in gap soundness. It is either that or after three offseason of building this defense they still are not good enough. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Tyrod was a bad QB. He was at his ceiling and starting to regress. 
 

the definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results. So their practice obviously isn’t shoring up execution in gap soundness. It is either that or after three offseason of building this defense they still are not good enough. 

 

How do you know what they're working on in practice????

 

My point on Tyrod is sometimes it's not the x's and o's...it's the Jimmy's and Joe's.  

 

Why are you bringing up the defense now when we were specifically talking about the passing offense?

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

How do you know what they're working on in practice????

 

My point on Tyrod is sometimes it's not the x's and o's...it's the Jimmy's and Joe's.  

 

Why are you bringing up the defense now when we were specifically talking about the passing offense?

because you bring up coach speak. 
 

want to talk passing offense fine?  Why haven’t the offense been aloud to play Fearlessly?

[BringBackOrton]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fact:

The last time we had a playoff win (1995), we were #1 in the league for rushing attempts, #6 in the league for rush yards.

Our passing game was in the bottom third of the league - #25 for attempts, #21 for yards. 

Our offense overall was mediocre - #13 on points.

 

Teams need to be able to do both.

Mediocre being synonymous with above average is an interesting way to frame things.

[BarleyNY]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/amp/

 

This is a good analysis of why teams should pass more. 

[BringBackOrton]

Anyway, This is extremely superficial analysis because it lacks the context of the Brian Hoyers of the world throwing 50x a game in blowouts.

 

The facts remain that the QB’s who throw for the top 5 or 10 amount of yards and touchdowns pretty consistently are incredible QB’s, the QB’s who do it every couple of years are decent, and the QB’s who never do it suck. And when you have QB’s who suck they will almost always lose more in their career than QB’s who are good.

Edited November 13, 2019 by BringBackOrton

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

because you bring up coach speak. 
 

want to talk passing offense fine?  Why haven’t the offense been aloud to play Fearlessly?

 

I bring up coach speak?  It's what I think it is.  I think we have an execution problem.  Allen said it himself.  

Why "haven't" the offense be "aloud" to play "Fearlessly"?  You act like we're conservative all the time.  We take our shots downfield, we look for the big play, but it's execution.  

 

We don't have a QB that can get the ball downfield accurately at all and someone who has fumbled 11 times with 7 picks in 9 games.  We have to tone it down sometimes because he's careless with the football.  If he produced more then you can live with the bad plays but he doesn't do enough good.  

Allen, this year, is one of the worst going downfield.  He's not missing by inches either.

[BarleyNY]

https://www.footballperspective.com/is-espns-qbr-the-best-measure-of-quarterback-play/

 

Here is an analysis of ESPN’s QBR metric.  The writer looked for correlation between QBR and winning and found that the correlation was +.68.  For those not familiar with statistics the scale is -1 to 1 where -1 is perfectly negative correlation, 0 is uncorrelated and 1 is perfectly correlated.  .68 shows a strong or “large” correlation.

 

So rather than look at how many passes a team throws, you are much better off looking at how well each QB plays.  In fact, nothing else that is unrelated could be remotely as telling.  Obviously you can look at defensive performance in part by how it impacts the opposing QB’s performance as their measure.  The running game, special teams and situational coaching decisions would also have impacts, but even collectively their impact wouldn’t add up to close to what the QB’s performance would except for how they impacted it.

[MAJBobby]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I bring up coach speak?  It's what I think it is.  I think we have an execution problem.  Allen said it himself.  

Why "haven't" the offense be "aloud" to play "Fearlessly"?  You act like we're conservative all the time.  We take our shots downfield, we look for the big play, but it's execution.  

 

We don't have a QB that can get the ball downfield accurately at all and someone who has fumbled 11 times with 7 picks in 9 games.  We have to tone it down sometimes because he's careless with the football.  If he produced more then you can live with the bad plays but he doesn't do enough good.  

Allen, this year, is one of the worst going downfield.  He's not missing by inches either.

he has been beaten into his head miss long. Also aggressive isn’t throwing a Go Route (Safest Route to throw by the way). 
 

agressive and fearless is about dictating to opposing teams. Not “accepting” what the defense gives you. I do agree after three years there still isn’t the horses on Offense to Dictate anything. (That is another problem all on its own). 
 

when was the last time you saw the Bills with a gameplan right into the weakness of a defense?

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

he has been beaten into his head miss long. Also aggressive isn’t throwing a Go Route (Safest Route to throw by the way). 
 

agressive and fearless is about dictating to opposing teams. Not “accepting” what the defense gives you. I do agree after three years there still isn’t the horses on Offense to Dictate anything. (That is another problem all on its own). 
 

when was the last time you saw the Bills with a gameplan right into the weakness of a defense?

Do you really think McDermott is telling Allen to miss by 5-7 yards.  Miss long doesn’t mean throw it out of the reach of everyone.  You still want to give the WR a chance to make a play.

 

Cleveland from what I’ve been reading, stacked the box and played a lot of Cover 0.  They were selling out to stop the run....make Allen beat you with his arm.

We probably should have ran it more but we should be able to see pass it much better.