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ROCKPILE REIVEW - The Bills Don't Have Quite Enough


Shaw66

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1 hour ago, billspro said:

 

We have NFL quality player but defensive coordinators are not scared of Beasley, Brown, and Singletary. That is a very average group and it would be difficult to find a worse trio. Bottom third of the league talent wise for sure. Now if we add a star WR in round 1, another good RB in round 3, and Knox develops this could turn into a top 10 group. Everyone will be better if we add a playmaker.

 

You're right about this.  Singletary is probably good enough for DCs to be worried, but only if he's part of a group of skill position players.  He's not a feature back to carry the offense alone.  And as much as Brown and Beasley are definitely upgrades over a season ago, they aren't elite.   They, too, need something special around them.  I'm a Duke Williams fan, but he isn't special, either.

 

It was easy to see the other night watching Amari Cooper.   I'm not a big Dak Prescott fan - he's good but not special, I think - but Cooper sure made him look special.  Having that guy who is going really deliver for you, three or four or five times a game, makes a big difference.  He skews the defense.  

 

You could see it in the Browns game.  The Browns put Chubb and Hunt on the field together, and when Hunt went in motion everyone in the stadium paid attention.   You just HAVE to account for him or he'll hurt.   The Bills don't have a Cooper or a Hunt or a ___________ (fill in the blank with one of about 20 names).  As I in the OP, put Chubb or Hunt or Landry or Beckham on the Bills and the offense looks different in a hurry.  Beane has some work to do.

 

But, and I know you agree, if this team is going to be a tough out week after week and through the playoffs, Allen has to continue to develop.  QB is the most important position on the field, by far, and practically no amount of talent at the other positions can't overcome mediocre play or worse from the QB.  

 

I'm not concerned.  I think Allen will be great.   He's just going through the learning process.  

 

 

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Shaw your comments on Duke Williams I think are important.

 

Anyone watching the game last night could see the importance of big WRs with good hands.  Allen isn't remotely as good as Russell Wilson, but you could just see the significance of DK Metcalf for Wilson, even if he didn't come down with every ball.  And how about Josh Gordon?  That late game critical 3rd down conversion to Gordon was a thing of beauty.  And it wasn't even a perfect pass by any means for Wilson; it was pretty low, but Gordon reached out and snatched it and didn't even break stride.
 

Now Duke isn't as fast as those 2 guys, obviously.  But this speed thing isn't working for Daboll's offense.  If he wants to keep the jet sweeps in the offense for the misdirection he seems to like, then keep EITHER Foster or McKenzie active and use them, not both.

 

I don't know why we can't use Roberts for those, actually.  McKenzie and Roberts both in the WR corps is redundant to me.

 

I don't think Duke becomes a number 1 WR for this team, but it's becoming pretty clear Allen needs a big WR who can go ***** the football.  Plus, he's proven he can run block.

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27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You're right about this.  Singletary is probably good enough for DCs to be worried, but only if he's part of a group of skill position players.  He's not a feature back to carry the offense alone.  And as much as Brown and Beasley are definitely upgrades over a season ago, they aren't elite.   They, too, need something special around them.  I'm a Duke Williams fan, but he isn't special, either.

 

It was easy to see the other night watching Amari Cooper.   I'm not a big Dak Prescott fan - he's good but not special, I think - but Cooper sure made him look special.  Having that guy who is going really deliver for you, three or four or five times a game, makes a big difference.  He skews the defense.  

 

You could see it in the Browns game.  The Browns put Chubb and Hunt on the field together, and when Hunt went in motion everyone in the stadium paid attention.   You just HAVE to account for him or he'll hurt.   The Bills don't have a Cooper or a Hunt or a ___________ (fill in the blank with one of about 20 names).  As I in the OP, put Chubb or Hunt or Landry or Beckham on the Bills and the offense looks different in a hurry.  Beane has some work to do.

 

But, and I know you agree, if this team is going to be a tough out week after week and through the playoffs, Allen has to continue to develop.  QB is the most important position on the field, by far, and practically no amount of talent at the other positions can't overcome mediocre play or worse from the QB.  

 

I'm not concerned.  I think Allen will be great.   He's just going through the learning process.  

 

 

 

It might be good for him to play with an average group so he learns to spread the ball around and not rely on one guy. Hopefully we add that elite talent somehow next year though. 

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30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Shaw your comments on Duke Williams I think are important.

 

Anyone watching the game last night could see the importance of big WRs with good hands.  Allen isn't remotely as good as Russell Wilson, but you could just see the significance of DK Metcalf for Wilson, even if he didn't come down with every ball.  And how about Josh Gordon?  That late game critical 3rd down conversion to Gordon was a thing of beauty.  And it wasn't even a perfect pass by any means for Wilson; it was pretty low, but Gordon reached out and snatched it and didn't even break stride.
 

Now Duke isn't as fast as those 2 guys, obviously.  But this speed thing isn't working for Daboll's offense.  If he wants to keep the jet sweeps in the offense for the misdirection he seems to like, then keep EITHER Foster or McKenzie active and use them, not both.

 

I don't know why we can't use Roberts for those, actually.  McKenzie and Roberts both in the WR corps is redundant to me.

 

I don't think Duke becomes a number 1 WR for this team, but it's becoming pretty clear Allen needs a big WR who can go ***** the football.  Plus, he's proven he can run block.

I agree, all around.   

 

I had the same reaction last night.  Not so much about Metcalf, because his hands were suspect coming out of college and he had a couple of balls he didn't handle last night.   Williams catches all of those.   But Gordon did prove the point.   The two passes he caught were well covered, and his speed wasn't what made those plays work - his body and his hands were.  As I said in the OP, when the Bills threw incomplete to Brown on 4th and 4, you could see it.  Brown doesn't have the body to keep defenders from reaching around him and deflecting passes.   Williams does, and Williams has hands and fights for the ball, all the things you need on those possession throws.  

 

Sunday, Roberts didn't look like a receiver to me.   He doesn't get two hands up regularly, and doesn't attack the ball as it arrives.  Foster doesn't impress, either.   When Brown was a rookie, he was immediately a deep threat AND good on those crossing routes that he runs and completes with the Bills; Foster's in his second season and still hasn't shown much.   He'd be my target.  Yes, maybe Roberts could run the jet sweep and make McKenzie superfluous, but McKenzie is also the backup kick returner.   I don't really know.  What I do know is that I think the Bills would be better with a big, sure-handed pass catcher. 

 

One other thing, though, is maybe Williams has other issues that are keeping him off the roster.   His lack of speed makes him less valuable, for sure, on special teams.  

45 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

It might be good for him to play with an average group so he learns to spread the ball around and not rely on one guy. Hopefully we add that elite talent somehow next year though. 

That's actually a good point.   This receiving corps demands the best possible play from Allen - Cooper would make life easier for him.   Still, who wouldn't want a Cooper?

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17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I don't think it's the offense.  I think it's Allen.  He's young and inexperienced.   He doesn't know yet how to read all the defenses, to get the team into the right plays, and to make the right decisions.   The Pats, of course, are the ultimate example.   Yes, you can argue they have elite offensive game planning, but if you have mediocre players at a lot of positions, game planning only takes you so far.  In the final analysis, on the field you need a QB who understands what's going on and executes, a QB like Brady.   Allen isn't there yet.   It takes years to learn and master all the concepts and to make the split second decisions that are necessary. 

 

I think Allen has the talent.  We already see how calm he is in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage.   We see that he has good pocket presence and awareness.  And we see that, WHEN HE SEES WHAT"S GOING ON, he executes very nicely.   He has all the skills.   He just has to keep learning the game.   He was 22 for 41 on Sunday not  because the offense sucks - he was 22 for 41 because he didn't see a half dozen opportunities to change the play or throw to a better option.  A half dozen opportunities is half dozen completions at 10 yards per completion, which is a 300-yard passing day and probably the difference between a win and a loss.   

 

When you're throwing to Jarvis Landry as your number two wideout, it isn't so difficult - the guy is going to get open a lot.   But Allen isn't throwing to Beckham and Landry; he's throwing to two guys a notch below.   So he has to be better technically - Mayfield can get away with not understanding because he has those receivers. 

 

Allen's still learning.  He works hard at his job.   I think he'll be fine.   But it takes time.  And a top notch receiver wouldn't hurt. 

I agree with all of this - I'm a total Allen fan-boy. What I don't understand is: Allen with his high Wonderlic has trouble making pre- and post-snap reads quickly - how is it that Lamar Jackson with his low Wonderlic score does not, or does Jackson's scheme not require him to make these reads.

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On 11/11/2019 at 12:27 PM, Wayne Arnold said:

Do you now see why the national media doesn’t talk about the Bills?

 

It’s very easy to see if a team is legit or a pretender. At least when you’re not a fan.

This board (and most fanbases in fairness) greatly over-values its own team.

 

It's always going to be that way.

 

 

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On 11/11/2019 at 10:02 AM, ILBillsfan said:

Agree but speaking of Kroft where was he yesterday.  All this money for A TE that is invisible.  I haven't looked yet but wondering if Knox is getting more reps than Kroft

No Kroft,  No Duke....but keep shoving Lee Smith and Patrick Dimarco down our throats because they are such dynamic offensive weapons. This coaching staff is making some real stupid decisions on personnel and play calling. 

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2 hours ago, Roch-A-Bill said:

I agree with all of this - I'm a total Allen fan-boy. What I don't understand is: Allen with his high Wonderlic has trouble making pre- and post-snap reads quickly - how is it that Lamar Jackson with his low Wonderlic score does not, or does Jackson's scheme not require him to make these reads.

Guys like Jackson and Mahomes come to the league with a special skill set that allows them to have success early, if their coaches can figure out how to take advantage of the skill set.  Over a few years, the league catches up with them, learns how to contain them, more or less.  Guys like Mike Vick and Cam Newton come to mind.  Their special skills made them successful early (not necessarily immediately in the win column), but the league figured out how to deal with them.  Their field generalship never developed.  They never became expert at reading defenses and running the offense.  

 

The people we think of as truly successful QBs all developed very high levels of field generalship - Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson.   Lamar Jackson has all the scrambling ability of Wilson, probably more, but we will have to wait a few years to see if he can consistently package those skills with the high football IQ that makes Wilson so successful.

 

I like the Wonderlic as an indicator, but it doesn't determine whether a guy has all that he needs.     Successful QBs usually have a relatively high Wonderlic, but plenty of guys with high Wonderlics don't make it and some guys with low Wonderlics do.             

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21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I don't think it's the offense.  I think it's Allen.  He's young and inexperienced.   He doesn't know yet how to read all the defenses, to get the team into the right plays, and to make the right decisions.   The Pats, of course, are the ultimate example.   Yes, you can argue they have elite offensive game planning, but if you have mediocre players at a lot of positions, game planning only takes you so far.  In the final analysis, on the field you need a QB who understands what's going on and executes, a QB like Brady.   Allen isn't there yet.   It takes years to learn and master all the concepts and to make the split second decisions that are necessary. 

 

I think Allen has the talent.  We already see how calm he is in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage.   We see that he has good pocket presence and awareness.  And we see that, WHEN HE SEES WHAT"S GOING ON, he executes very nicely.   He has all the skills.   He just has to keep learning the game.   He was 22 for 41 on Sunday not  because the offense sucks - he was 22 for 41 because he didn't see a half dozen opportunities to change the play or throw to a better option.  A half dozen opportunities is half dozen completions at 10 yards per completion, which is a 300-yard passing day and probably the difference between a win and a loss.   

 

When you're throwing to Jarvis Landry as your number two wideout, it isn't so difficult - the guy is going to get open a lot.   But Allen isn't throwing to Beckham and Landry; he's throwing to two guys a notch below.   So he has to be better technically - Mayfield can get away with not understanding because he has those receivers. 

 

Allen's still learning.  He works hard at his job.   I think he'll be fine.   But it takes time.  And a top notch receiver wouldn't hurt. 

 

This is the correct answer.   I said to my Browns fans friends yesterday that until we have a QB (and it will happen) who we have the confidence in when there's a 1:48 left in the game and we're down by 3 to lead a march down the field to score either the game winning TD or the game-tying field goal, then we'll not be a team that is top tier.  We're going to be middle of the pack.   We'll go 9-7, maybe 10-6, maybe make the playoffs only to lose in the first round to a team with a better QB.

 

Josh Allen is in his second year in the league and he's shown marked improvement.  He has also shown marked regression.  Sometimes in the same game.  It's a learning thing.  Sometimes it's going to click and sometimes not so much.  

 

Again, thanks for your posts and followups.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Guys like Jackson and Mahomes come to the league with a special skill set that allows them to have success early, if their coaches can figure out how to take advantage of the skill set.  Over a few years, the league catches up with them, learns how to contain them, more or less.  Guys like Mike Vick and Cam Newton come to mind.  Their special skills made them successful early (not necessarily immediately in the win column), but the league figured out how to deal with them.  Their field generalship never developed.  They never became expert at reading defenses and running the offense.  

 

The people we think of as truly successful QBs all developed very high levels of field generalship - Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson.   Lamar Jackson has all the scrambling ability of Wilson, probably more, but we will have to wait a few years to see if he can consistently package those skills with the high football IQ that makes Wilson so successful.

 

I like the Wonderlic as an indicator, but it doesn't determine whether a guy has all that he needs.     Successful QBs usually have a relatively high Wonderlic, but plenty of guys with high Wonderlics don't make it and some guys with low Wonderlics do.             

How fast you can think and react is different sitting at a desk vs on the field with huge athletes coming at you with bad intentions. How fearless are you under pressure becomes the more important question. Jim Kelly may have had a lower wonderlic scores. On the other hand Kelly was one of the most fearless QB's that ever played the game IMO.

 

 

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On 11/12/2019 at 10:08 AM, dakrider said:

a game like this showcased how receivers are literally half the passing game.

 

Thats the thing, the Bills offense often requires Allen to be perfect on every play.  Overall Allen had a good enough game.  He missed on a long pass he should have hit and he had a fumble, that had it not happened then the Bills would have had to settle for a FG there anyway instead of getting the TD.  Allen also had to be the one to score the 2 rushing TD's because it was apparent Gore wasn't going get it in.  If you go down the list of the reasons the Bills lost, Allen is not towards the top of that list. 

 

This seems to be exactly right. Against the Browns, the defense put the Bills in an instant hole, by first deferring, then by letting the Browns drive straight down for a TD.  Allen put the team into position to win the game simply by having two made field goals.  The fact that he did not single handedly  win the game does not mean he failed.

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the more i read threads like this and the more i go back over the games, the more i am convinced our offensive skill level is pretty friggen low.

 

also -- allen obv has huge short comings, i don't understand how the dumb OC doesn't work with that.  he's trying to turn allen into a year 6 tom brady, square peg and round hole.

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1 minute ago, colin said:

 

also -- allen obv has huge short comings, i don't understand how the dumb OC doesn't work with that.  he's trying to turn allen into a year 6 tom brady, square peg and round hole.

Well, whether it's the right approach or not, the approach that McD has always taken - and he's been very frank about it - is that every player is asked to play the position as it's drawn up in the offense, not some watered down version because the guy is just learning.   That's the approach.  


So you get McVeigh taking a different route with Goff, talking him through every play on the headset to make up for what Goff can't see on his own.  There was discussion on this board a couple weeks ago about whether that approach actually stunted his growth.

 

I don't know what the right answer is, but I know the approach the Bills are taking with Allen is "this is the position, the entire position.  Play it."   The result is that he's going to make mistakes that a veteran QB won't.  

 

You can argue that McD costs the Bills some wins by doing this, because Allen makes mistakes.  But if you dumb down the position so he can play mistake-free, you also make it easier for the opponent to defend against the offense, because the offense becomes much more predictable. 

 

I don't know if there's a correct answer.  I like what McDermott is doing, but I get that others might not.   

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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, whether it's the right approach or not, the approach that McD has always taken - and he's been very frank about it - is that every player is asked to play the position as it's drawn up in the offense, not some watered down version because the guy is just learning.   That's the approach.  


So you get McVeigh taking a different route with Goff, talking him through every play on the headset to make up for what Goff can't see on his own.  There was discussion on this board a couple weeks ago about whether that approach actually stunted his growth.

 

I don't know what the right answer is, but I know the approach the Bills are taking with Allen is "this is the position, the entire position.  Play it."   The result is that he's going to make mistakes that a veteran QB won't.  

 

You can argue that McD costs the Bills some wins by doing this, because Allen makes mistakes.  But if you dumb down the position so he can play mistake-free, you also make it easier for the opponent to defend against the offense, because the offense becomes much more predictable. 

 

I don't know if there's a correct answer.  I like what McDermott is doing, but I get that others might not.   

 

I don't remember McD talking about that but I don't really pay too much attention to pressers. But if it's true that makes me feel a lot better about Allen. I would expect him to have a stumble here or there if he's getting thrown into the fire fully. It's if he's getting a watered down playbook and half-field reads and things like that and he's still faltering that really scares me.

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8 minutes ago, theAteam said:

 

I don't remember McD talking about that but I don't really pay too much attention to pressers. But if it's true that makes me feel a lot better about Allen. I would expect him to have a stumble here or there if he's getting thrown into the fire fully. It's if he's getting a watered down playbook and half-field reads and things like that and he's still faltering that really scares me.

He said it several times last season.  I don't recall his saying it this season, but it would have big news if he dumbed down the playbook this season.   They did say once or twice that they were trying to simplify the reads on certain plays, but that sounded more like the reads were too difficult for the QB generally, not that they were simplifying for Allen. 

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24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He said it several times last season.  I don't recall his saying it this season, but it would have big news if he dumbed down the playbook this season.   They did say once or twice that they were trying to simplify the reads on certain plays, but that sounded more like the reads were too difficult for the QB generally, not that they were simplifying for Allen. 

You seem to be in a camp of people who like both Allen and McDermott a lot.  I think that might be a small camp. 

If you had to pick one of these two scenarios for the best chance to win over the next several years, which would you pick?

1) You must keep McDermott and you get to have Russell Wilson as your QB
2) You must keep Allen and get to have Bill Bellichick as coach.

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42 minutes ago, Chaos said:

You seem to be in a camp of people who like both Allen and McDermott a lot.  I think that might be a small camp. 

If you had to pick one of these two scenarios for the best chance to win over the next several years, which would you pick?

1) You must keep McDermott and you get to have Russell Wilson as your QB
2) You must keep Allen and get to have Bill Bellichick as coach.

Fun question.   It deserves it's own thread.

 

I'd definitely take Belichick and Allen.   Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, and Allen has more than enough talent for Belichick to make him a winner.   Plus, I'd get the benefit of Belichick coaching the other 52 guys. 

 

McDermott is trying to be like Belichick, and I think he will have success over time.   He'll never be Belichick, but that's like saying Werner von Braun will never be Einstein.  And I think McDermott would have success with this team more quickly if he had Russell Wilson today.   If he had Russell Wilson to start this season, the Bills could very well be 9-0 right now.   

 

But I can't have Belichick and I can't have Wilson, so I have to write about McDermott and Allen.  I like them both.  As I said, I think McDermott will have success as a head coach, because of his approach.   And I think Allen will, too.  They're both just climbing their respective learning curves.  

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9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Fun question.   It deserves it's own thread.

 

I'd definitely take Belichick and Allen.   Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, and Allen has more than enough talent for Belichick to make him a winner.   Plus, I'd get the benefit of Belichick coaching the other 52 guys. 

 

McDermott is trying to be like Belichick, and I think he will have success over time.   He'll never be Belichick, but that's like saying Werner von Braun will never be Einstein.  And I think McDermott would have success with this team more quickly if he had Russell Wilson today.   If he had Russell Wilson to start this season, the Bills could very well be 9-0 right now.   

 

But I can't have Belichick and I can't have Wilson, so I have to write about McDermott and Allen.  I like them both.  As I said, I think McDermott will have success as a head coach, because of his approach.   And I think Allen will, too.  They're both just climbing their respective learning curves.  

And, of course, I believe that if Belichick had started training camp in place of McD, the Bills also would be 9-0 right now.  

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