The Extra Point - Week 10: This One Hurts

[Logic]

I’m back this week with another edition of The Extra Point. Last week, a Bills win made it so that I couldn’t WAIT to sit down and write about the team. This week, my desire to write takes on more of a…therapeutic role. Here goes.

1.) Maybe the critics are right. An awful lot of attention has been paid this year by the Bills players and fans to the fact that the national media doesn’t believe in them. For the third time this year they had the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, and for the third time, they failed.

While the Browns didn’t boast the pedigree of teams like the Eagles and Patriots, they represented a supremely talented opponent and a chance for the Bills to thumb their nose at those silly Vegas odds makers for declaring the Bills the underdogs.

A Bills win today and a subsequent 7-2 record would have gone a long way toward changing the national narrative. Instead, the Bills looked like a walking embodiment of the old Dennis Green “We are who we thought they were!” rant.

Another strong defensive performance. Another listless offensive performance. Another wide open receiver running down the field for Buffalo, watching the ball sail 8 yards past him. Another winnable game, lost. At some point, if you want to earn national respect, you have to go out and take it. The Bills once again failed to do that on Sunday, and fans are left to wonder whether they are capable of doing it at all.

2.) Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes. The tendency after a loss is to want to figure out who and what was primarily to blame for the outcome. Against the Browns, the Bills coaches and players were both to blame. The lack of carries — the Bills only ran the ball 13 times all day — for Gore and Singletary were baffling, sure. But within the scope of the offensive game plan that WAS utilized, there were plays to be made, and the players often did not make them.

Josh Allen again failed to complete a deep pass to a wide open receiver that may ultimately have led to a Bills victory. He also had a costly fumble in the red zone that Jon Feliciano luckily had the alertness and athleticism to recover, saving Buffalo’s offense from catastrophe.

There were numerous failures to convert manageable 3rd and shorts and 4th downs. And what of the Bills defense? It’s easy to question the call to send pressure against Mayfield on his 4th quarter touchdown throw to Rashard Higgins, but that would ignore how badly Higgins beat Levi Wallace on the play. Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes, and on Sunday, both deserved blame for the Bills’ loss.

3.) Keep it simple, stupid. After a string of games in which the Bills were mostly unable to exhibit any kind of offensive identity, they finally stumbled upon a formula that worked last week against the Redskins: give Devin Singletary the ball early and often.

Singletary was a revelation, touching the ball 24 times against the Redskins for 140 yards and a score. On an offense mostly devoid of playmakers and clearly incapable of executing a competent vertical passing game, Singletary made it clear that he was the most explosive player the Bills had in their offensive arsenal. This week, it seemed like a safe assumption that the Bills would continue to give Singletary the ball — especially considering that they were facing an opponent that was giving up 141 rushing yards per game.

Instead, to the extreme frustration of Bills fans everywhere, they gave him the ball just eight times. The Bills, in fact, only ran the ball 13 times total — and on a day when they were never far behind on the scoreboard, no less. Josh Allen, by comparison, threw the ball 41 times. Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do, but even I know that giving Singletary the ball just eight times while asking Josh Allen to throw it 41 times is a losing recipe.

Football can be a really complicated game. Sometimes, though, the best answer is the simple answer. The Bills, with a mauling and nasty offensive line that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, an explosive rookie running back, and facing an exploitable run defense, just needed to give Singletary the ball. I mentioned above that the offense needs to make more plays regardless of what the game plan calls for, and that’s true. But it’s the coaches job to put their players in the best position to succeed, and it’s nearly impossible to see how Brian Daboll did that today.

 

4.) “We’re not in Foxborough any more, Toto”. Given the seemingly obvious good fortune of having a rookie running back with a hot hand and facing an opponent who is bad at stopping the run, it seems absolutely crazy that Brian Daboll rolled out the gameplan that he did. So why did he do it?

 

It has become clear over his two seasons with the Bills that Daboll wants to import the New England offensive philosophy of tailoring each week’s offensive gameplan to the opponent in a highly specific way. The Patriots offense looks different every week. Sometimes they’re a power run outfit, sometimes they sling the ball all over the field. It makes sense, in theory, to want one’s offense to possess this type of flexibility. The problem for Brian Daboll is that the offense he currently oversees in Buffalo does not seem to have the personnel to execute this type of varied offensive scheme. They certainly don’t have Tom Brady behind center. Josh Allen is an ascending player who looks to have a bright future, but his ability to consistently threaten defenses with his arm is not yet at the level where the Bills should ever consider such pass heavy offensive game plans.

I understand Daboll’s desire to have his offense be adaptable and multiple, but the Bills don’t seem to have the horses to accomplish that task. With that being the case, the only reasonable thing to do is scrap the “highly specific, tailored gameplan” stuff and go with what works: Running the ball, controlling the clock, and setting up play-action opportunities.

5.) The Dick Jauron Award for “Bend but don’t break” goes to…The Bills defense deserves major credit for the Bills even being in the game in the fourth quarter to begin with on Sunday. Yes, they gave up too many rushing yards. Yes, they allowed the Browns to score the go-ahead touchdown with just minutes left in the fourth quarter.

At the end of the day, though, they allowed only 19 points and tallied two points of their own on a safety. That should be good enough for a win most weeks. Their eight-play goal line stand culminating in a 4th down stop was a thing of beauty. Later, with the Browns again in the red zone and poised for a back breaking touchdown, the Bills defense held them to just a field goal. Once again, they failed to collect a turnover, but they played good team defense throughout the game and did a good job limiting the points scored against them.

If you need a bright spot to focus on after Sunday’s heartbreaking loss, go back and watch Tre’Davious White’s performance. White did an absolutely masterful job shutting down Odell Beckham Jr. If there is one Buffalo Bill that deserves more national attention and praise, it’s White. He shadowed OBJ on all but 10 plays and essentially turned him into a non-factor. With his stellar play this season, #27 has catapulted himself onto the short list of best cornerbacks in the league.

6.) Tale of two halves, redux. Just like in last week’s game against the Washington Redskins, the Bills defense looked positively toothless against the run in the first half. The Browns were seemingly running the ball at will, with Nick Chubb breaking off three runs of 15 or more yards. Sometimes the defensive tackles were pushed off the ball. Sometimes the linebackers took bad angles or got lost in the wash. Whatever the cause on a given play, the Bills defense looked like it was in for another long afternoon against the run.

Then a funny thing happened: The second half began. Just like in last week’s game, the Bills defense flipped some sort of switch. While they didn’t completely stymie the Browns running game in the second half, they undoubtedly curtailed its effectiveness. Instead of runs of 15 and 20 yards, the Browns were getting gains of 3 to 5 yards. What is Leslie Frazier saying to the players in the locker room at halftime? What adjustments are they making? Why can’t they seem to replicate their recent second half run-stopping efforts in the first halves of games? What gives?

 

Things don’t get any easier in the run defense department, with a rematch against a Dolphins team that already gashed the Bills on the ground once this year on deck, and games against the Cowboys and Ravens still to come.

 

The Extra Point

This one hurts.

Bills losses always hurt, at least a little bit. But this one REALLY hurt. The Patriots game was upsetting, sure, but Bills fans could tell themselves that if Allen hadn’t been knocked out of the game, things might have been different. The Eagles game was disheartening, sure, but the Bills were simply outclassed by a superior opponent. For some reason, those types of losses are easier to take. If the guys lining up across from your team are just better, then so be it. There’s nothing you can do. But when the opponents AREN’T clearly better, when the game is there for the taking and some combination of bad coaching and bad execution causes a loss in a game that could have been a win — those losses really hurt.

This game had the sting and the stink of so many bad BIlls losses of the past. Games against the Browns are strange. They always are. Whether it’s a Bills running back dropping a pass in the end zone in a playoff game, a kicker missing wide right on Monday Night Football, or a hideous punt bonanza that the Bills somehow lose 6-3, Browns game are strange. Today was the latest chapter in a nightmarish tome authored over the years on the shores of Lake Eerie.

This game hurt because there were so, so many missed opportunities and squandered chances. There were bungled third and shorts and failed 4th down conversions. There was bad play calling and bad execution at inopportune times. Most egregiously of all, there was the absolutely horrendous final Bills drive, in which the Bills coaches exhibited a hideous double-dip of coaching no-no’s: Poor clock management and playing to tie rather than playing to win.

Indeed, between the missed opportunities, the poor play-calling, the lackluster execution, and the head-scratching clock management, the Bills squandered multiple precious opportunities today. They squandered the opportunities to win the game, to take a commanding lead in the AFC playoff race, to exorcise the ghosts of Browns games past, and most of all, to prove to the nation at large that they’re contenders instead of pretenders. The road certainly doesn’t get easier from here, with games against opponents like Dallas, New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh looming. Even games against opponents like Miami and Denver no longer seem like sure Bills victories, such is the strength of the impression of ineptitude that the Bills have left in recent weeks.

I pleaded with Bills fans last week in this space to learn to enjoy the Bills’ winning ways while still wanting and demanding more from the team. I spoke of the dangers of falling into the trap of extremes. To be clear: the Bills’ season is not over. Their hopes are not dashed. They are 6-3 — still a darn good record for a team that many picked to win no more than six games ALL YEAR — with the opportunity to make the playoffs still in front of them. However, if the Bills don’t figure out a way to create greater offensive production and iron out their coaching foibles quickly, Bills fans will begin to feel another old, familiar sinking feeling all too common to this fan base the past 20 years: "Here we go again”.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Logic

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

I’m back this week with another edition of The Extra Point. Last week, a Bills win made it so that I couldn’t WAIT to sit down and write about the team. This week, my desire to write takes on more of a…therapeutic role. Here goes.

1.) Maybe the critics are right. An awful lot of attention has been paid this year by the Bills players and fans to the fact that the national media doesn’t believe in them. For the third time this year they had the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, and for the third time, they failed.

While the Browns didn’t boast the pedigree of teams like the Eagles and Patriots, they represented a supremely talented opponent and a chance for the Bills to thumb their nose at those silly Vegas odds makers for declaring the Bills the underdogs.

A Bills win today and a subsequent 7-2 record would have gone a long way toward changing the national narrative. Instead, the Bills looked like a walking embodiment of the old Dennis Green “We are who we thought they were!” rant.

Another strong defensive performance. Another listless offensive performance. Another wide open receiver running down the field for Buffalo, watching the ball sail 8 yards past him. Another winnable game, lost. At some point, if you want to earn national respect, you have to go out and take it. The Bills once again failed to do that on Sunday, and fans are left to wonder whether they are capable of doing it at all.

2.) Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes. The tendency after a loss is to want to figure out who and what was primarily to blame for the outcome. Against the Browns, the Bills coaches and players were both to blame. The lack of carries — the Bills only ran the ball 13 times all day — for Gore and Singletary were baffling, sure. But within the scope of the offensive game plan that WAS utilized, there were plays to be made, and the players often did not make them.

Josh Allen again failed to complete a deep pass to a wide open receiver that may ultimately have led to a Bills victory. He also had a costly fumble in the red zone that Jon Feliciano luckily had the alertness and athleticism to recover, saving Buffalo’s offense from catastrophe.

There were numerous failures to convert manageable 3rd and shorts and 4th downs. And what of the Bills defense? It’s easy to question the call to send pressure against Mayfield on his 4th quarter touchdown throw to Rashard Higgins, but that would ignore how badly Higgins beat Levi Wallace on the play. Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes, and on Sunday, both deserved blame for the Bills’ loss.

3.) Keep it simple, stupid. After a string of games in which the Bills were mostly unable to exhibit any kind of offensive identity, they finally stumbled upon a formula that worked last week against the Redskins: give Devin Singletary the ball early and often.

Singletary was a revelation, touching the ball 24 times against the Redskins for 140 yards and a score. On an offense mostly devoid of playmakers and clearly incapable of executing a competent vertical passing game, Singletary made it clear that he was the most explosive player the Bills had in their offensive arsenal. This week, it seemed like a safe assumption that the Bills would continue to give Singletary the ball — especially considering that they were facing an opponent that was giving up 141 rushing yards per game.

Instead, to the extreme frustration of Bills fans everywhere, they gave him the ball just eight times. The Bills, in fact, only ran the ball 13 times total — and on a day when they were never far behind on the scoreboard, no less. Josh Allen, by comparison, threw the ball 41 times. Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do, but even I know that giving Singletary the ball just eight times while asking Josh Allen to throw it 41 times is a losing recipe.

Football can be a really complicated game. Sometimes, though, the best answer is the simple answer. The Bills, with a mauling and nasty offensive line that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, an explosive rookie running back, and facing an exploitable run defense, just needed to give Singletary the ball.

I mentioned above that the offense needs to make more plays regardless of what the game plan calls for, and that’s true. But it’s the coaches job to put their players in the best position to succeed, and it’s nearly impossible to see how Brian Daboll did that today.

 

4.) “We’re not in Foxborough any more, Toto”. Given the seemingly obvious good fortune of having a rookie running back with a hot hand and facing an opponent who is bad at stopping the run, it seems absolutely crazy that Brian Daboll rolled out the gameplan that he did. So why did he do it?

 

It has become clear over his two seasons with the Bills that Daboll wants to import the New England offensive philosophy of tailoring each week’s offensive gameplan to the opponent in a highly specific way. The Patriots offense looks different every week. Sometimes they’re a power run outfit, sometimes they sling the ball all over the field. It makes sense, in theory, to want one’s offense to possess this type of flexibility. The problem for Brian Daboll is that the offense he currently oversees in Buffalo does not seem to have the personnel to execute this type of varied offensive scheme. They certainly don’t have Tom Brady behind center. Josh Allen is an ascending player who looks to have a bright future, but his ability to consistently threaten defenses with his arm is not yet at the level where the Bills should ever consider such pass heavy offensive game plans.

I understand Daboll’s desire to have his offense be adaptable and multiple, but the Bills don’t seem to have the horses to accomplish that task. With that being the case, the only reasonable thing to do is scrap the “highly specific, tailored gameplan” stuff and go with what works: Running the ball, controlling the clock, and setting up play-action opportunities.

5.) The Dick Jauron Award for “Bend but don’t break” goes to…The Bills defense deserves major credit for the Bills even being in the game in the fourth quarter to begin with on Sunday. Yes, they gave up too many rushing yards. Yes, they allowed the Browns to score the go-ahead touchdown with just minutes left in the fourth quarter.

At the end of the day, though, they allowed only 19 points and tallied two points of their own on a safety. That should be good enough for a win most weeks. Their eight-play goal line stand culminating in a 4th down stop was a thing of beauty. Later, with the Browns again in the red zone and poised for a back breaking touchdown, the Bills defense held them to just a field goal. Once again, they failed to collect a turnover, but they played good team defense throughout the game and did a good job limiting the points scored against them.

If you need a bright spot to focus on after Sunday’s heartbreaking loss, go back and watch Tre’Davious White’s performance. White did an absolutely masterful job shutting down Odell Beckham Jr. If there is one Buffalo Bill that deserves more national attention and praise, it’s White. He shadowed OBJ on all but 10 plays and essentially turned him into a non-factor. With his stellar play this season, #27 has catapulted himself onto the short list of best cornerbacks in the league.

6.) Tale of two halves, redux. Just like in last week’s game against the Washington Redskins, the Bills defense looked positively toothless against the run in the first half. The Browns were seemingly running the ball at will, with Nick Chubb breaking off three runs of 15 or more yards. Sometimes the defensive tackles were pushed off the ball. Sometimes the linebackers took bad angles or got lost in the wash. Whatever the cause on a given play, the Bills defense looked like it was in for another long afternoon against the run.

Then a funny thing happened: The second half began. Just like in last week’s game, the Bills defense flipped some sort of switch. While they didn’t completely stymie the Browns running game in the second half, they undoubtedly curtailed its effectiveness. Instead of runs of 15 and 20 yards, the Browns were getting gains of 3 to 5 yards. What is Leslie Frazier saying to the players in the locker room at halftime? What adjustments are they making? Why can’t they seem to replicate their recent second half run-stopping efforts in the first halves of games? What gives?

 

Things don’t get any easier in the run defense department, with a rematch against a Dolphins team that already gashed the Bills on the ground once this year on deck, and games against the Cowboys and Ravens still to come.

 

The Extra Point

This one hurts.

Bills losses always hurt, at least a little bit. But this one REALLY hurt. The Patriots game was upsetting, sure, but Bills fans could tell themselves that if Allen hadn’t been knocked out of the game, things might have been different. The Eagles game was disheartening, sure, but the Bills were simply outclassed by a superior opponent. For some reason, those types of losses are easier to take. If the guys lining up across from your team are just better, then so be it. There’s nothing you can do.

But when the opponents AREN’T clearly better, when the game is there for the taking and some combination of bad coaching and bad execution causes a loss in a game that could have been a win — those losses really hurt.

This game had the sting and the stink of so many bad BIlls losses of the past. Games against the Browns are strange. They always are. Whether it’s a Bills running back dropping a pass in the end zone in a playoff game, a kicker missing wide right on Monday Night Football, or a hideous punt bonanza that the Bills somehow lose 6-3, Browns game are strange. Today was the latest chapter in a nightmarish tome authored over the years on the shores of Lake Eerie.

This game hurt because there were so, so many missed opportunities and squandered chances. There were bungled third and shorts and failed 4th down conversions. There was bad play calling and bad execution at inopportune times. Most egregiously of all, there was the absolutely horrendous final Bills drive, in which the Bills coaches exhibited a hideous double-dip of coaching no-no’s: Poor clock management and playing to tie rather than playing to win.

Indeed, between the missed opportunities, the poor play-calling, the lackluster execution, and the head-scratching clock management, the Bills squandered multiple precious opportunities today. They squandered the opportunities to win the game, to take a commanding lead in the AFC playoff race, to exorcise the ghosts of Browns games past, and most of all, to prove to the nation at large that they’re contenders instead of pretenders. The road certainly doesn’t get easier from here, with games against opponents like Dallas, New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh looming. Even games against opponents like Miami and Denver no longer seem like sure Bills victories, such is the strength of the impression of ineptitude that the Bills have left in recent weeks.

I pleaded with Bills fans last week in this space to learn to enjoy the Bills’ winning ways while still wanting and demanding more from the team. I spoke of the dangers of falling into the trap of extremes. To be clear: the Bills’ season is not over. Their hopes are not dashed. They are 6-3 — still a darn good record for a team that many picked to win no more than six games ALL YEAR — with the opportunity to make the playoffs still in front of them. However, if the Bills don’t figure out a way to create greater offensive production and iron out their coaching foibles quickly, Bills fans will begin to feel another old, familiar sinking feeling all too common to this fan base the past 20 years: "Here we go again”.

Good post! I'm wondering, after doing some research, if our best way to operate isn't more spread out and less heavy. But, to run the ball with motion and play more up-tempo, play action passing. We have slowed our pace down, the games are 25 minutes shorter with many fewer plays on both sides. Last week (vs. Wash) we were back to McKenzie running a lot of motion and playing 68% of snaps, after being a healthy scratch week before. Singletary gets the ball and is great, Josh is efficient and over 111 Passer Rating, we win, not perfect but solid and room for growth. Where we seem to really struggle is when we go multiple TEs and go heavy and try to pound with Gore (we get more penalties too). We can't do it and it hurts the passing game. Hell Lee Smith usually commits a penalty or two. And, then its ask the raw QB to a bail us out. Spread it out and play with more tempo and balance the Run Vs Pass is what I think would work.

Edited November 11, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Logic]

16 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Good post! I'm wondering, after doing some research, if our best way to operate isn't more spread out and less heavy. But, to run the ball with motion and play more up-tempo, play action passing. We have slowed our pace down, the games are 25 minutes shorter with many fewer plays on both sides. Last week (vs. Wash) we were back to McKenzie running a lot of motion and playing 68% of snaps, after being a healthy scratch week before. Singletary gets the ball and is great, Josh is efficient and over 111 Passer Rating, we win, not perfect but solid and room for growth. Where we seem to really struggle is when we go multiple TEs and go heavy and try to pound with Gore (we get more penalties too). We can't do it and it hurts the passing game. Hell Lee Smith usually commits a penalty or two. And, then its ask the raw QB to a bail us out. Spread it out and play with more tempo and balance the Run Vs Pass is what I think would work.

Great observations.

Spreading the field with less condensed sets and thus unpacking the box and creating more space for our runners may be the way to go. So too might running plays at a faster pace.

 

One thing's for sure: The offense needs to find SOME kind of identity, SOMETHING to hang its hat on. Right now, they're just a whole lot of "blah".

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great observations.

Spreading the field with less condensed sets and thus unpacking the box and creating more space for our runners may be the way to go. So too might running plays at a faster pace.

 

One thing's for sure: The offense needs to find SOME kind of identity, SOMETHING to hang its hat on. Right now, they're just a whole lot of "blah".

I'm surprised you aren't getting more responses, maybe I shouldn't be. There are so....many people who don't want to objectively view things, and instead offer a flippant one sentence answer..usually Josh Allen isn't Patrick Mahomes or something. Keep up the good work.

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm surprised you aren't getting more responses, maybe I shouldn't be. There are so....many people who don't want to objectively view things, and instead offer a flippant one sentence answer..usually Josh Allen isn't Patrick Mahomes or something. Keep up the good work.

Thanks. It's fine. I post this column on BillsMafia every week. I just copy and paste it here in case anyone wants to discuss it.

I have two things going against me: One, my columns are ***** long. LOL. Two, after this week's game, I don't think people are in a mood to do a deep dive into the team's failures. 

It's all good. No skin off my back.

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm surprised you aren't getting more responses, maybe I shouldn't be. There are so....many people who don't want to objectively view things, and instead offer a flippant one sentence answer..usually Josh Allen isn't Patrick Mahomes or something. Keep up the good work.

 

I think fans are shell shocked after this loss.  I consider myself pretty objective and try not to get too high or too low after wins or losses.

I had no problem for the first half of the season for the Bills to "train" Josh Allen to curb the hero ball and to work on slants and shorter

route passes increasing his completion percentage.

 

That being said I think they have let that pendulum swing way too far over.  I though for sure that either in the WAS and or the CLE games

they would open up the offense.  I like your idea of an up tempo pace and I think that is worthy of game planning.  A few no huddles

wouldn't hurt every now and then too to keep a defense guessing.

 

The Bills offense has become predictable and easy to defend and that has to change.  A mental shakeup is needed and one of the ways

is to "inactivate" Lee Smith for 1 game for his penalties.  That helmet scene on the sidelines was sophomoric.  He was brought in for

his veteran leadership to a young TE group and he is acting like the rookie.

 

They also HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO STRETCH THE FIELD.

Edited November 11, 2019 by ColoradoBills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Logic said:

2.) Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes. The tendency after a loss is to want to figure out who and what was primarily to blame for the outcome. Against the Browns, the Bills coaches and players were both to blame. The lack of carries — the Bills only ran the ball 13 times all day — for Gore and Singletary were baffling, sure. But within the scope of the offensive game plan that WAS utilized, there were plays to be made, and the players often did not make them....Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes, and on Sunday, both deserved blame for the Bills’ loss.

 

I think that's fair.  The playcalling was very puzzling at times AND There were offensive plays to be made that we left on the field.  You rightly call out the lack of touches in the run game.  Yes, sometimes the Browns were stacking the box but not always (and more in a minute)

 

Quote

3.) Keep it simple, stupid. After a string of games in which the Bills were mostly unable to exhibit any kind of offensive identity, they finally stumbled upon a formula that worked last week against the Redskins: give Devin Singletary the ball early and often. (.....) Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do, but even I know that giving Singletary the ball just eight times while asking Josh Allen to throw it 41 times is a losing recipe

 

I'm just leaving this here to shine in its perpetual truth.

 

Quote

4.) “We’re not in Foxborough any more, Toto”. Given the seemingly obvious good fortune of having a rookie running back with a hot hand and facing an opponent who is bad at stopping the run, it seems absolutely crazy that Brian Daboll rolled out the gameplan that he did. So why did he do it?

 

It has become clear over his two seasons with the Bills that Daboll wants to import the New England offensive philosophy of tailoring each week’s offensive gameplan to the opponent in a highly specific way. The Patriots offense looks different every week. Sometimes they’re a power run outfit, sometimes they sling the ball all over the field. It makes sense, in theory, to want one’s offense to possess this type of flexibility. The problem for Brian Daboll is that the offense he currently oversees in Buffalo does not seem to have the personnel to execute this type of varied offensive scheme. They certainly don’t have Tom Brady behind center. Josh Allen is an ascending player who looks to have a bright future, but his ability to consistently threaten defenses with his arm is not yet at the level where the Bills should ever consider such pass heavy offensive game plans.

I understand Daboll’s desire to have his offense be adaptable and multiple, but the Bills don’t seem to have the horses to accomplish that task. With that being the case, the only reasonable thing to do is scrap the “highly specific, tailored gameplan” stuff and go with what works: Running the ball, controlling the clock, and setting up play-action opportunities.

 

This is all true, with some additional points:

1) During Tom Brady's first years as a QB, they were not running the offense they run now.  It was a very balanced attack - 473 rushes to 482 passing attempts.  It was an established offense with many starters that had played together the previous year.  Brady had a year to watch and learn on the bench, and came in more advanced as a passer, but as I recall they did still simplify and streamline what they asked him to do.  For example (true fact) his longest completed pass was 29 yards and not too many of those IIRC.  And actually, Daboll was there!  though as a defensive assistant - then next year as WR coach.  But he acts as though he has no awareness that how smart a guy is and how good he looks with a play in practice, may not translate onto the field when he's inexperienced, both as a player and playing with the other 10.

 

2) OK, I need to look at the film, just like McDermott, and for me All-22 on NFL Gamepass won't come out until tomorrow.  But I'm pretty sure what I'll see. 

 

Most baffling to me, is the fact that Mr. Varied Offensive Philosophy has GIANT TELLS all over the place predicting our playcalling from formation.  Nah, the Browns didn't stack the box on every down - only on the downs they knew we wanted to run.  Why did they know we wanted to run, or run a reverse or a jet sweep?  Because our offensive personnel have become a giant "tell" for this.  We overwhelmingly put McKensie on the field only for gadget plays.  Gore?  Run up the gut.  We have run very little from shotgun.  Etc etc.

 

The data are available on several fan-sided sites but somehow Daboll seems to miss this.

 

 

Quote

5.) The Dick Jauron Award for “Bend but don’t break” goes to…The Bills defense deserves major credit for the Bills even being in the game in the fourth quarter to begin with on Sunday. Yes, they gave up too many rushing yards. Yes, they allowed the Browns to score the go-ahead touchdown with just minutes left in the fourth quarter.

At the end of the day, though, they allowed only 19 points and tallied two points of their own on a safety. That should be good enough for a win most weeks. Their eight-play goal line stand culminating in a 4th down stop was a thing of beauty. Later, with the Browns again in the red zone and poised for a back breaking touchdown, the Bills defense held them to just a field goal. Once again, they failed to collect a turnover, but they played good team defense throughout the game and did a good job limiting the points scored against them.

 

You mention a field goal here, but you don't mention the failed FG attempts at the end of each half that I found (and I searched).  One of those FG should have been a "Gimme" from 34 yds in no wind.   I think the ST does deserve some mention, good and bad - obviously those FG could have been the difference in the game. 

Another missed ST opportunity was the muffed punt by the Browns which they recovered.  That seems to be a pattern-we're recovering most of our fumbles, but we just aren't those of anyone else.

 

Another major point that I don't see here or anywhere else - the Bills had two TOD earlier in the game, and that's some on the O.  One was in the 1Q, 3rd then 4th-and-4 from the 39 yard line, which I believe would be a 56 yd FG attempt.  The other was in the 3Q, 3rd then 4th-and-4 from the Cleveland 36, which I believe would be a 53 yd FG attempt.  Clearly they lack faith in Haushka to make a FG of that length, and that both takes a weapon out of our arsenal, and makes the play calling at the end of the game the more puzzling.  The other play calling aspect is that both TOD were multiple pass attempts.  I'm just a dumb fan, but if you've made up your mind you're in 4 down territory, there's something to be said for trying to grind out 2-3 yards on 3rd down and make it 4th and 2, or 4th and 1.

 

Quote

6.) Tale of two halves, redux. Just like in last week’s game against the Washington Redskins, the Bills defense looked positively toothless against the run in the first half. The Browns were seemingly running the ball at will, with Nick Chubb breaking off three runs of 15 or more yards. (...)
Then a funny thing happened: The second half began. Just like in last week’s game, the Bills defense flipped some sort of switch.

 

McDermott was questioned about this in his post-game presser and said he'd have to look at the film.  I think it's fair game for more questioning, and I hope he gets some.  Because if we can shut it down in the 2nd half, why not shut it down in the 1st?  Or at least after the first defensive series?  Why does it take us so frustratingly long to adjust?

 

OK, one last thing.  I said it in another thread and I'll say it here.  A lot has been made about "score more points", and no question, we need more production out of our offense.

 

But as for the end of the game...one way to look at it is, whatever has happened earlier in the game, in the late 4Q it comes down to difference in points.  It doesn't matter if you're 16-12, 28-24, or 38-34.  It comes down to the difference in points: who is leading and by how much?  

 

In this case, we were leading by 4 points, so their O needed a TD.  We needed a stop.  We didn't get it; they marched us backwards down the field and took what they needed.  We let them.  That's the same bad ending whether we're leading by 4 points after a shootout, or it's 16-12.

 

Summarizing my take on your take: not saying the offense doesn't need to score more points, but one way to look at the end of the game is that the O took the lead and the D couldn't hold it.  Missed FG and TODs where we were in long FG range were also a factor in the game.   

 

It really was a team loss.  This doesn't absolve Allen of poor play and missed opportunities, but it's not all on him, either.

 

24 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm surprised you aren't getting more responses, maybe I shouldn't be. There are so....many people who don't want to objectively view things, and instead offer a flippant one sentence answer..usually Josh Allen isn't Patrick Mahomes or something. Keep up the good work.

 

Well, it takes time to unpack a good post like that!

[CircleTheWagons99]

From what I gathered, Daboll is useless and is predicable. Josh is not a great QB, but Daboll called 41 pass plays...smh. I’m not knocking Josh, but forcing him to make throws and play the position like he is the second coming of Montana is stupid and falls on the OC. Daboll needs to go. The Bills need an OC that plays to the strength of its players not one that’s forces his own agenda. 

[KollegeStudnet]

The missed field goals hurt. 

The overthrown deep balls hurt.

The WR drops hurt. 

 

Daboll’s game plan was predictable, simple and unimaginative. I still think Daboll is a smart OC and will get better. The whole offensive side needs to come together, be accountable and push through this. This is a wake up call game. Bet we see a more intense group against the Phins this week. 

 

Please, Josh Allen slide! 

[ticketssince61]

"Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do"

 

Actually you (and the rest of us on TBD) probably do. Coaches (i.e. Daboll) try to be too cute or too smart and just end up being stupid

 

99% of us realize we should have run the ball more - somehow the coaching staff missed that point

 

 

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

OK, one last thing.  I said it in another thread and I'll say it here.  A lot has been made about "score more points", and no question, we need more production out of our offense.

 

But as for the end of the game...one way to look at it is, whatever has happened earlier in the game, in the late 4Q it comes down to difference in points.  It doesn't matter if you're 16-12, 28-24, or 38-34.  It comes down to the difference in points: who is leading and by how much?  

 

In this case, we were leading by 4 points, so their O needed a TD.  We needed a stop.  We didn't get it; they marched us backwards down the field and took what they needed.  We let them.  That's the same bad ending whether we're leading by 4 points after a shootout, or it's 16-12.

 

Summarizing my take on your take: not saying the offense doesn't need to score more points, but one way to look at the end of the game is that the O took the lead and the D couldn't hold it.  Missed FG and TODs where we were in long FG range were also a factor in the game.   

 

It really was a team loss.  This doesn't absolve Allen of poor play and missed opportunities, but it's not all on him, either.

 

 

Great point. 

As I sat back and thought over yesterday's game, it occurs to me that every single phase of the Bills failed them at one point or another. It really and truly was a team loss. The defense gave up that easy first touchdown drive, didn't keep the Browns out of the end zone at the end, and didn't collect any turnovers despite going against a turnover prone QB. The offense...well...we all know. The special teams accounted for two missed field goals. The coaches made multiple head scratching decisions. All three phases of the team AND coaching contributed to the loss. Extremely frustrating and disheartening.

Thanks for the comments.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

44 minutes ago, Logic said:

One thing's for sure: The offense needs to find SOME kind of identity, SOMETHING to hang its hat on. Right now, they're just a whole lot of "blah".

The offense has an identity.  It's milquetoast, i.e. it's predictable, totally inconsistent (whatever works is seemingly forgotten, such as Singletary's performance last week), excessively conservative, has apparently not heard much about pitchouts, play action, screens, and passes to backs, and is error and penalty prone.  And where is Duke?  Aside from those and other deficiencies, Smith's actions, such as destroying his helmet, lead to additional costs for the franchise.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

The offense has an identity.  It's milquetoast, i.e. it's predictable, totally inconsistent (whatever works is seemingly forgotten, such as Singletary's performance last week), excessively conservative, has apparently not heard much about pitchouts, play action, screens, and passes to backs, and is error and penalty prone.  And where is Duke?  Aside from those and other deficiencies, Smith's actions, such as destroying his helmet, lead to additional costs for the franchise.

 

I didn't hear about this, say more?

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

"Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do"

 

Actually you (and the rest of us on TBD) probably do. Coaches (i.e. Daboll) try to be too cute or too smart and just end up being stupid

 

99% of us realize we should have run the ball more - somehow the coaching staff missed that point

 

 

 

First I like to thank you for your bolded statement.  Most of us are not qualified.

 

It would be nice to be able to consistently run the ball but I'm not sure they can.  Posters lose their minds around here with a run, run,

resulting in a 3rd and 4 (pass).

 

If there are posters who watch and dissect the game I would like to know something.

It seems to me in recent weeks defenses are attacking the gaps of the offensive line whether or not it's a pass or a run.

It seems to work and disrupts any offensive rhythm.  If that's what is happening then Daboll needs a counter for it.

[wvbillsfan]

Without quoting the entire post (it’s a good one btw) I get that it’s the willys and joes that make the plays and that if Josh Willy Allen hits a few more throws or the Joe’s on defense make a play this probably isn’t even a discussion but isn’t it on the coach to accentuate what the Willys and Joes do well. 
 

I really question the Bills ability to self scout. I lost sleep over this game and I came to the conclusion that it’s very hard for a coach to fundamentally change who they are. When the bullets start flying coaches are going to revert back to what they know or think they know. And Brian Daboll is an offensive coordinator who loves to throw the ball and I don’t think he can change that. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I didn't hear about this, say more?

 

After another stupid penalty he came to the sidelines took his helmet off, crouched down and beat it into the ground like a mad man.

It was pretty embarrassing.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

After another stupid penalty he came to the sidelines took his helmet off, crouched down and beat it into the ground like a mad man.

It was pretty embarrassing.

 

At least it shows he knows his performance is unacceptable and he takes it to heart.  

I would like to christen Lee Smith "Gabrielle" and apply the Xena, Warrior Princess quote: "Don't be sorry, Gabrielle.  Just...IMPROVE."

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

At least it shows he knows his performance is unacceptable and he takes it to heart.  

I would like to christen Lee Smith "Gabrielle" and apply the Xena, Warrior Princess quote: "Don't be sorry, Gabrielle.  Just...IMPROVE."

 

My take is he has been repeatedly told he has to stop these stupid penalties and he CAN'T.  I like Lee Smith but this just has to stop.

The vast majority of his penalties (and he leads the team) have come in the 2nd half.

Every one of them in the 2nd half have come on 1st down.  He continuously causes the Bills to start in the hole.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

My take is he has been repeatedly told he has to stop these stupid penalties and he CAN'T.  I like Lee Smith but this just has to stop.

The vast majority of his penalties (and he leads the team) have come in the 2nd half.

Every one of them in the 2nd half have come on 1st down.  He continuously causes the Bills to start in the hole.

 

No argument that he's putting the Bills in a bad spot.

 

So I looked at his penalties for the last 2 years and it's pretty startling.  He played 16 games last year with Oakland! 

 

3 penalties in 16 games vs 9 penalties in 9 games (but uneven - 3 vs NE and 2 vs Phi and Cle).  These hurt us in losses.

I looked at the snap count and it's not hugely different.  27% of offensive snaps in 2018, 39% in 2019.  Plus he played way more Teams in Oakland.

 

So either he's being coached differently here in a way that's leading to penalties, or he's being asked to fill a role and do something he struggles with, and wasn't asked to do in Oakland last year.

[Logic]

Just one bump for the evening crew and then I'll let this thing die its death.