Rational Thoughts after the Browns

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....nice write up bud...thanks...........I'd bet they hardly share your accurate assessment......"head scratching repetition" is the "mother of all battles with this gang".....definition of "insanity" is sure as hell a good fit.....this cast doesn't seem to get "IT".......you can name names so I won't bother.....Belichick is THE Master of Adjustments.....we just do NOT seem to get any better from week to week, learning from mistakes albeit HC, OC/DC, personnel deployment versus what the opposition tendencies are, in game adjustments, clock management et al....could we conceivably be heading towards an "oh well 8-8"?........stay tuned......

 

 

1. Yesterday was a foundation shaking moment with the coaching staff that questions a bit the long term viability of this staff. You play to win you don’t play to tie. On the final drive the offense is moving and the moment they hit FG range the coaching staff panicked. The NFL is an offense driven attack league and you are rewarded for doing so. To not go for the win was as bad as Rex punting agaisnt Miami. Long term the defense will not be great with free agency, salary cap, age etc that set in. Your going to have to win with your QB and scoring. My faith they understand and will do this is shaken at this point.

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[2003Contenders]

Excellent post!

 

With the benefit of a 24-hour cool-down period, here are some of my thoughts:

 

1. Pete Rozelle's dream of NFL parity is upon us. Nearly half of the teams in the NFL are somewhere between 4-6 and 6-4. For the most part, the teams that are better than 6-4 have had the benefit of a lighter schedule, whereas teams that are worse than 4-6 have largely had to play more difficult schedules. This applies to the Bills, whose 6-2 record going into yesterday was largely due to a relatively easy schedule, versus the Browns whose 2-6 record was the product of a much more difficult schedule. The Vegas odds-makers understood this, which is why they had the Browns as 3-point favorites. It is not unseasonable to say that these 2 teams are pretty evenly matched -- and the outcome of this game could have gone either way.

 

2. The Browns HAD to have this game. Their backs were against the wall -- and the team DOES have talent. Credit them for getting things done when they needed to. Meanwhile, the Bills need to harvest this kind of intensity themselves every week if they expect to make the playoffs.

 

3. As bad as the missed kick was at the end of regulation, the one that was truly unforgivable was the miss just before the half. That was a short kick that wasn't much more than an extra point. Not only did it impact the ultimate outcome of the game, but given how much the Browns had out-played the Bills in the first half, I think it would have been demoralizing for them if they had gone into the half DOWN on the scoreboard.

 

4. There has been much talk of McD utilizing Jauron Ball. I get it. Both are/were defensive-minded coaches, and both are/were conservative by nature. I also get that right now the defense is the strength of the team, and the offense is saddled with a young QB who is still learning his way. But Jauron Ball does NOT mean having the young QB drop back to pass 40+ times and running the ball just 20 times (with 6 of those runs coming from the QB).  It also doesn't mean throwing the ball downfield in 3rd/4th and short situations, especially when the young QB has infamously struggled to complete such downfield passes this season. Yes, I know that in many of those situations, receivers WERE open downfield -- and Allen just failed to connect with them. But the likelihood of his being able to connect has to be factored into the equation when trying to predict the liklihood of success of a given play.  Jauron Ball, after all, is designed to play the percentages and keep things close to the vest. Going into the game, the "book" on the Browns told us that their defense is in the top half of the league in terms of pass defense and 3rd WORST in run defense. Jauron Ball would have prescribed a heavy dose of runs, right? I guess what I am getting at is that I have no idea what Daboll's game-plan was yesterday. I am not completely down on him, but I really do believe that he called a poor game yesterday. If nothing else, he needs to do a better job of calling plays that will help his young QB get into a rhythm.

 

5. The defense has evolved into a true bend-but-don't break specimen. That worked fine last week against the Redskins, where AP rushed for over 100 yards in the first half but failed to get the ball into the endzone. Yesterday, the defense really kept us in the game with two HUGE goal line stands. The problem is that the defense is NOT getting turnovers, even when they are forcing the offense to run 10+ plays to get into scoring position. There were several close-calls yesterday, where the turnovers were ALMOST there. When the refs (correctly) reversed Hughes' game-sealing fumble-return, you could just sense the wind come out of their sails. 

 

6. I didn't like the coaching/time management on that last drive at all. When the offense got down inside the 40, it was pretty clear that McD was playing for a tie rather than trying to win the game in regulation. When it got down to 4th-and-4, it was pretty clear that McD did NOT have faith in Haus to make that long kick. You could see the body language and indecision on the sidelines; the first inclination was to go for it there. Then they decided to try to draw the defense Offside -- then took the timeout and attempted the kick after all.

 

7. Regarding Allen, I think we saw a mixed bag. When it is all said and done, he did lead the team on drives into scoring range at the end of the half and at the end of regulation -- but the kicker failed in both instances. Allen did lead the team to the go-ahead score prior to the last ill-fated defensive "stand". The "hero ball" seems to be out of his system now, but he still struggles to protect the ball when scrambling (we got lucky here yesterday).  Last season he struggled to hit the intermediate passes (slants, etc.) but was pretty reliable on the deep passes. The trend has reversed this season. I think he probably needs to just hit on one of those deep balls -- and then the monkey will be off his back. As I said, Daboll needs to do a better job helping him get into rhythm with his play-calling.

 

8. Seeing how this team rebounds next week will be a true test. They travel to Miami, who is actually on a winning streak. Fitz, as we know, is always dangerous. That said, the Bills are the better team, and if they rebound the way they should -- then they head down to Miami and destroy the Dolphins there. If that happens, then maybe we will look back upon this loss as a blip on the radar -- rather than the end-of-the-line that many fear.

[TheBrownBear]

My thoughts:

- yesterday was a very even game by almost every metric and we win if our kicker makes his kicks

- raw but improving young QB (no turnovers and led us back again in the 4th quarter and got us in FG range at the end)

- run defense is still a major liability

- more Singletary, less Gore, please.

- o-line is frustrating with the penalties; need to upgrade again this offseason

- been in every game, with far from the most talented roster

- 6-3 after 9 games.  i'll take that. 

- lots of histrionics on this board over a close road loss.  Browns are more talented than their record indicates, just ask the Ravens.

 

[mjd1001]

I know you 'can only play the teams that are on your schedule thing', but seeing HOW they played against those teams, I just think this is an average football team.  Its the type of team that can finish 6-10 or 5-11 if they played a brutal schedule...or can finish 10-6 if they play an easy schedule.  Either way, as it is now...this is a team that IF they do make the playoffs, isn't likely to go far.

 

Allen needs to be better. I'm not sure if he can..or has it in him...but for this team to compete in the playoffs, he has to be a better QB than he is now.  That is the easy way to playoff contender. Sure, the D can get better, you can get better WR's, the offensive line can become dominant.  But, if only one thing changes..and that one thing is Allen becomes a top-10 QB....you are set for playoff success.

 

However, as I have said in previous weeks, I still think that teams are not static. Teams can get better (or worse) between week 9 and week 17.  Hopefully, this Bills team is one that gets better.

Edited November 11, 2019 by mjd1001

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

This team still plays not to lose...  Just look how scared we are every week at the end of halves..  it's disgusting.

 

 If a basketball coach wasted possessions because he failed to run the 2 for 1 at the end of qtr/half/game he would be considered unfit to coach high school. That is where I am with McDermott. 

[Big Blitz]

Absolutely spot on especially #1.  

 

I'm a tad bit more shook over what McD/Daboll are doing than anything else right now.  

[HeHateMe]

17 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I know you 'can only play the teams that are on your schedule thing', but seeing HOW they played against those teams, I just think this is an average football team.  Its the type of team that can finish 6-10 or 5-11 if they played a brutal schedule...or can finish 10-6 if they play an easy schedule.  Either way, as it is now...this is a team that IF they do make the playoffs, isn't likely to go far.

 

Allen needs to be better. I'm not sure if he can..or has it in him...but for this team to compete in the playoffs, he has to be a better QB than he is now.  That is the easy way to playoff contender. Sure, the D can get better, you can get better WR's, the offensive line can become dominant.  But, if only one thing changes..and that one thing is Allen becomes a top-10 QB....you are set for playoff success.

 

However, as I have said in previous weeks, I still think that teams are not static. Teams can get better (or worse) between week 9 and week 17.  Hopefully, this Bills team is one that gets better.

 

This team is either just out of the playoffs or gets stomped out in the wild card game..  just incredibly fortunate the AFC has been a joke for most of this season..  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Daboll gets guys open. The final 3rd down call was aggressive and JA made the correct read.

2. Singletary had 7 catches so he got the ball more than 8 times. I agree more commitment to the run with Singletary moving forward would be wise.

3. Tre was great but he was torched on a go route that would have been a touchdown on first drive if it was a better throw. Even tye best ones give up big gains

4. The media is finally catching on and asking the right questions - lack of turnovers, accountability for penalties.

[Olliemets]

18 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

Excellent post!

 

 

5. The defense has evolved into a true bend-but-don't break specimen. That worked fine last week against the Redskins, where AP rushed for over 100 yards in the first half but failed to get the ball into the endzone. Yesterday, the defense really kept us in the game with two HUGE goal line stands. The problem is that the defense is NOT getting turnovers, even when they are forcing the offense to run 10+ plays to get into scoring position. There were several close-calls yesterday, where the turnovers were ALMOST there. When the refs (correctly) reversed Hughes' game-sealing fumble-return, you could just sense the wind come out of their sails. 

 

6. I didn't like the coaching/time management on that last drive at all. When the offense got down inside the 40, it was pretty clear that McD was playing for a tie rather than trying to win the game in regulation. When it got down to 4th-and-4, it was pretty clear that McD did NOT have faith in Haus to make that long kick. You could see the body language and indecision on the sidelines; the first inclination was to go for it there. Then they decided to try to draw the defense Offside -- then took the timeout and attempted the kick after all.

 

7. Regarding Allen, I think we saw a mixed bag. When it is all said and done, he did lead the team on drives into scoring range at the end of the half and at the end of regulation -- but the kicker failed in both instances. Allen did lead the team to the go-ahead score prior to the last ill-fated defensive "stand". The "hero ball" seems to be out of his system now, but he still struggles to protect the ball when scrambling (we got lucky here yesterday).  Last season he struggled to hit the intermediate passes (slants, etc.) but was pretty reliable on the deep passes. The trend has reversed this season. I think he probably needs to just hit on one of those deep balls -- and then the monkey will be off his back. As I said, Daboll needs to do a better job helping him get into rhythm with his play-calling.

 

 

This .... Points 5-6-7 all spot on

 

Not ready to kill Josh yet. He needs to be better. But this disaster was a step back for the coaching staff.  My .02. HC has to be better too. 

 

But Daboll is beyond hopeless.

[MarkyMannn]

21 hours ago, Jobot said:

One thing that dawned on me regarding the three losses this year..

 

One was vs the Patriots

Two were against teams that essentially had their seasons on the line.

So any team that is desperate is an automatic loss for us.  That's OK to lose then.  Good to know

So then how come when we are desperate, Bills lose?

 

 

O-line still needs help in the off-season.  Dawkins was beat a lot Sunday by Myles Garrett

Edited November 12, 2019 by MarkyMannn

[CaptnCoke11]

32 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Daboll gets guys open. The final 3rd down call was aggressive and JA made the correct read.

2. Singletary had 7 catches so he got the ball more than 8 times. I agree more commitment to the run with Singletary moving forward would be wise.

3. Tre was great but he was torched on a go route that would have been a touchdown on first drive if it was a better throw. Even tye best ones give up big gains

4. The media is finally catching on and asking the right questions - lack of turnovers, accountability for penalties.

Singletary did not have 7 catches.  

[Jobot]

10 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

So any team that is desperate is an automatic loss for us.  That's OK to lose then.  Good to know

So then how come when we are desperate, Bills lose?

 

 

O-line still needs help in the off-season.  Dawkins was beat a lot Sunday by Myles Garrett

 

Totally agree with you that it's not an excuse, but more an observation for how our team plays when going up against this type of desperation. Eagles beat us pretty convincingly, but we had plenty of chances to beat the Browns, which is very disappointing.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

54 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Daboll gets guys open. The final 3rd down call was aggressive and JA made the correct read.

2. Singletary had 7 catches so he got the ball more than 8 times. I agree more commitment to the run with Singletary moving forward would be wise.

3. Tre was great but he was torched on a go route that would have been a touchdown on first drive if it was a better throw. Even tye best ones give up big gains

4. The media is finally catching on and asking the right questions - lack of turnovers, accountability for penalties.

 

This is where I'm at. Guys are open all over the field. Execution is just way off.  I expect JA to miss the occasional throw, but the number of drops is astonishing to me. Those are absolute drive killers. 

23 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Singletary did not have 7 catches.  

 

I think he meant targets. 

[Buffalo Junction]

21 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

That sums it up nicely. McDermitt better learn quick how to step on an opponents neck  and also remove himself from his love fest of a few players; Lee Smith, DiMarco, and Gore. They are all a huge liability- Smith the most with his penalties.

I’m not so sure it’s a McD lovefest so much as Daboll running the same play every time all three of those guys are on the field.... The one time Daboll deviated Lee Smith caught a touchdown pass. I feel like his playcalling with that personnel was less predictable earlier in the season when his only TE options were Sweeney and Smith. Now he’s tipping his hand with personnel groupings.... 

[Buffalo Junction]

20 hours ago, Z-Mann said:

 

I feel like his only point was, that we are quick to blame the offensive coordinator than we are our QB...that was the case with Roman/Tyrod (although Tyrod clearly had his detractors), and I see the same pattern here.  Lots of people blaming the OC more than the QB.  Maybe the QB just has too many limitations at this point in his career, which hampers what they can do on the field?

^^^^^ This is actually my contention. This offense lacks an identity and there really isn’t anything one can point to and say “that’s what they do well.” In a way it’s intentional. Daboll wants to morph the gameplan week to week and exploit matchups and tendencies... Which is great when you have a QB that has the experience and ability to follow through and adapt on the fly. Allen isn’t that guy right now. He’s a 2nd year QB that’s still honing his mechanics and footwork while learning to read coverages and set protections. It seems as though Dabolls offense is a little too ambitious for Allen’s current developmental level right now. Particularly when there’s nothing else this offense can hang it’s hat on. 

[HappyDays]

On 11/11/2019 at 12:00 PM, corta765 said:

On the final drive the offense is moving and the moment they hit FG range the coaching staff panicked.

 

I don't agree with this at all. We called a 20 yard pass play on 3rd and 4, we just didn't execute it. At that point it was too late.

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m not so sure it’s a McD lovefest so much as Daboll running the same play every time all three of those guys are on the field.... The one time Daboll deviated Lee Smith caught a touchdown pass. I feel like his playcalling with that personnel was less predictable earlier in the season when his only TE options were Sweeney and Smith. Now he’s tipping his hand with personnel groupings.... 

I am more referring to Lee Smith’s constant penalties and sub par play yet he dresses and Duke sits? I know Duke is a WR but we already have 3 other TE’s. DiMarco gets the ball and has concrete in his feet and we rarely use him as a lead blocker.  In reference to Daboll- he plain stinks and should be shown the door. Tough for McD to can him cuz now he concedes a whiff on 2 OC’s.

Edited November 12, 2019 by billsfan_34

[Pokebball]

23 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

This team still plays not to lose...  Just look how scared we are every week at the end of halves..  it's disgusting.

I was thinking the other day that the offense plays not to lose for 3 quarters, then flips the switch and plays to win the 4th.  The defense...just the exact opposite.

1 hour ago, Buffalo Junction said:

^^^^^ This is actually my contention. This offense lacks an identity and there really isn’t anything one can point to and say “that’s what they do well.” In a way it’s intentional. Daboll wants to morph the gameplan week to week and exploit matchups and tendencies... Which is great when you have a QB that has the experience and ability to follow through and adapt on the fly. Allen isn’t that guy right now. He’s a 2nd year QB that’s still honing his mechanics and footwork while learning to read coverages and set protections. It seems as though Dabolls offense is a little too ambitious for Allen’s current developmental level right now. Particularly when there’s nothing else this offense can hang it’s hat on. 

Yeah, I don't know.  Maybe it's my bias, but in all of the other games I watch each weekend, most teams seem to have WRs and TEs that  make their QB look really good; the pass is anywhere near them and they go and get it, and come down with remarkable catches.  You can count those made by Bill's receivers this year on one hand.

[NewEra]

Cj spiller had zero instincts.  Fred >>>>>> Cj

[Buffalo Junction]

20 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

I am more referring to Lee Smith’s constant penalties and sub par play yet he dresses and Duke sits? I know Duke is a WR but we already have 3 other TE’s. DiMarco gets the ball and has concrete in his feet and we rarely use him as a lead blocker.  In reference to Daboll- he plain stinks and should be shown the door. Tough for McD to can him cuz now he concedes a whiff on 2 OC’s.

I’d actually be content with just rolling with Sweeney, Croft, and Knox. Foster has been playing well on ST so I think he stays active. I think an issue is that none of these guys have separated themselves from the other talent. Knox’s drops keep him from being the guaranteed starter. As for Duke, he’s big and he catches everything.... Use him. I’ve said it elsewhere... They’ve run every McKenzie gadget play effectively with other personnel. If he’s not killing it on teams swap him out for Duke and get some catch radius out there. 
 

16 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Yeah, I don't know.  Maybe it's my bias, but in all of the other games I watch each weekend, most teams seem to have WRs and TEs that  make their QB look really good; the pass is anywhere near them and they go and get it, and come down with remarkable catches.  You can count those made by Bill's receivers this year on one hand.

It’s definitely a rarity in Buffalo. More talent would definitely be nice. Although, I do wonder if it’s coaching too since there are college receivers who won’t get drafted making those types of plays.