Run First to Set up The Pass !! What do the Numbers Say ?

[T master]

The Bills have had a lot of good running backs including this year & at New Era Field come the end of the season you alway s need those good backs when mother nature decides to make things tough. It has been proven that you need a good running game despite what they say the NFL has become which is a passing league which is what the fans & the NFL wants to see because it's more exciting . But a running game is still very necessary in todays NFL !!

 

Just yesterday we saw how one of the most prolific NFL QB's in todays game threw for over 400 yds & 3 TD's lost the game to the Titans, that QB being Mahomes, which sure it looks good on paper & is a ton more exiting for the fans but does it alone win games & more important championships ?

 

Most championship teams have a really good run game they can depend on to pick up those tough yards it also opens up the pass from any thing i've read about this game, yet the Bills seem to be depending more on Josh Allen's arm than their run game .

 

Again most things i learn about this game is from what i read & reading this article today i think Dabol still thinks he has Brady under center .

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/11/11/20958992/opinion-brian-daboll-buffalo-bills-need-to-stop-relying-on-the-pass-josh-allen

 

If what this guy has written is true then the Bills need to run the ball more to set up the pass, heck even Josh has shown to be a part of that equation when he runs he picks up good yardage.

 

If you look at what the Ravens have done with Lamar Jackson it seems to be working with him doing a bit of the running in their scheme & seeing as the NFL is a copy cat league why isn't Dabol paying attention ? 

 

Sure the run game isn't as exciting but given what the Bills have left on their schedule running the ball could give them a more potent attack & open up the WR's more while doing so . 

 

Look i'll be the first to say i'm just a fan but given what Singletary, Gore, & Yeldon bring to the field & what the out come is when they are more involved i would say go for it because the run/pass ratio yesterday & in previous loses may have been the difference between a W or a L .

 

So what do you Bills experts think ??

 

 

[WIDE LEFT]

The whole concept of running to set up the pass is so ridiculous and debunked it’s hard to believe it’s still being put out there. The idea goes like this ; running the ball forces defenses to bring 8 or 9 defenders into the box to stop the run, therefore creating more opportunities in the downfield passing game. The ENTIRE problem with that concept is that if u have watched the Bills over the last 6 or 7 years they have been a run dominant team. Defenses START the game with 8 or 9 in the box, before the first offensive play is even run. So the idea that you need to run to bring up force the defense to load the box is just plain dumb - they are ALREADY there before you run your first play. So “establishing the run” essentially is doing what the defense wants, running the ball into the teeth of 8&9 man fronts.

[whatdrought]

It’s not about using one to set up the other, it’s about balance. It’s about running and passing throughout the game from identitical formations and in identitical situations. It’s about not letting the defense key on any one aspect of what you do. Our offense feels completely transparent.

[T master]

11 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

The whole concept of running to set up the pass is so ridiculous and debunked it’s hard to believe it’s still being put out there. The idea goes like this ; running the ball forces defenses to bring 8 or 9 defenders into the box to stop the run, therefore creating more opportunities in the downfield passing game. The ENTIRE problem with that concept is that if u have watched the Bills over the last 6 or 7 years they have been a run dominant team. Defenses START the game with 8 or 9 in the box, before the first offensive play is even run. So the idea that you need to run to bring up force the defense to load the box is just plain dumb - they are ALREADY there before you run your first play. So “establishing the run” essentially is doing what the defense wants, running the ball into the teeth of 8&9 man fronts.

 

Okay if what you say is true i get it, but if what is said in the article i referred to is correct & the stats running the ball are that good then why not use it more in game, wouldn't that be better to utilize something more that is helping the cause rather than side lining it or using it less ? 

 

Just asking ...

[WIDE LEFT]

The article criticizes a 60/40 pass to run ratio but that is what the modern NFL is all about. EVERY rule change enacted in the past 20 years has favored the PASSING game; yet u continue to get these run first advocates who are living in the past. Of course it’s great to have balance, every team should strive for that. But it’s the passing game that wins in the modern NFL, and to emphasize run over pass is nonsense, and completely unsupported by analytics. In recent history, Rex Ryan etc, Bills have had one of the leading run games in all of the NFL - where did that get us? In 2019, you pass to set up the run. Successful downfield passing backs the defense off, so your running backs are no longer facing 8 or 9 man fronts. That’s when u run - that’s balance

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Dumb

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

We had 3 holding penalties on rushing plays, and 1 on an allen scramble FWIW.  

[ILBillsfan]

If my counting is correct the Bills vs the Browns passed 18 of 24 times on first down.  Would really like to see them commit to the run

[T master]

4 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

If my counting is correct the Bills vs the Browns passed 18 of 24 times on first down.  Would really like to see them commit to the run

 

Yah a bit more i just read a thing on Rumblings that Singletary was on the field 69% of the time & Gore was on there the other times of those times Singletary got 8 count them EIGHT carries Gore got 4 for a total of 12 carries through out the entire game WTH are these guys thinking ? 

 

Okay so don't run to set up the pass but for christ sake at least run the ball more than 12 freakin times in a game !!

 

COME ON MAN !! 

[Solomon Grundy]

Was listening to Sal earlier and he listed a group of QBs who threw the ball 40x or more and of all those QBs the only one that won was Jameis Winston. FWIW, his opposing QB threw the ball 48x.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

The whole concept of running to set up the pass is so ridiculous and debunked it’s hard to believe it’s still being put out there. The idea goes like this ; running the ball forces defenses to bring 8 or 9 defenders into the box to stop the run, therefore creating more opportunities in the downfield passing game. The ENTIRE problem with that concept is that if u have watched the Bills over the last 6 or 7 years they have been a run dominant team. Defenses START the game with 8 or 9 in the box, before the first offensive play is even run. So the idea that you need to run to bring up force the defense to load the box is just plain dumb - they are ALREADY there before you run your first play. So “establishing the run” essentially is doing what the defense wants, running the ball into the teeth of 8&9 man fronts.

 

This seems like a good place to put this. 

 

I don't know how Singletary would do with it.  But on well designed run plays with decent blocking (which I believe we have), teams in fact run successfully with a stacked box.  We seem to have some OLmen with some NASTY back with us.  It seems like an aspect of the game we should at least try.

Here's an article about it from a couple years back

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000772651/article/jay-ajayi-leads-top10-rbs-against-stacked-boxes

 

As Thurman Thomas said about the SB Bills, "Other teams knew what we were going to do, we did it anyway and they couldn't stop us"

 

The other thing: "6 or 7 years"?  Seriously?  The absolute furthest DCs look with the Bills for tendencies is 2017, 3 years back, and really not much there for the offense since our offensive personnel and OC have turned over since then. 

The Bills have rushed about 48% of the time last year (making an assumption that about 1/3 of Allen's rushes were designed runs, which I think is high)

This year, assuming about half Allen's 67 rushes are designed (which again I think high) and counting sacks as pass attempts, the Bills have rushed about 44% of the time.

 

That is not a run-dominant team.  That is a team designed for a proficient NFL passing game - which we don't completely have at this point.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

It’s not about using one to set up the other, it’s about balance. It’s about running and passing throughout the game from identitical formations and in identitical situations. It’s about not letting the defense key on any one aspect of what you do. Our offense feels completely transparent.

 

This, absolutely!  Use personnel and sets that leave the defense in some doubt as to whether you'll run or pass. 

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This, absolutely!  Use personnel and sets that leave the defense in some doubt as to whether you'll run or pass. 

 

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Our offense feels completely transparent.

 

I'd put some of that on the talent / skill set / experience of our WRs, TEs and RBs.

 

As great a season as John Brown has had, he's somewhat limited in the routes he can run.  Same with Beasley.   We've got no credible third WR, so that option is kaput.    Gore can only run between the tackles, so that makes defending him easier.   Singletary and Knox are more versitile but as rookies, McD is going to have them on a leash.

[whatdrought]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

 

I'd put some of that on the talent / skill set / experience of our WRs, TEs and RBs.

 

As great a season as John Brown has had, he's somewhat limited in the routes he can run.  Same with Beasley.   We've got no credible third WR, so that option is kaput.    Gore can only run between the tackles, so that makes defending him easier.   Singletary and Knox are more versitile but as rookies, McD is going to have them on a leash.

 

But Andre Roberts tho....

[Billl]

5 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

If my counting is correct the Bills vs the Browns passed 18 of 24 times on first down.  Would really like to see them commit to the run

I just looked at every play called on first down and the result.  This includes positive or negative penalties.  There were 26 plays run on first down.  

 

16 passing plays netting 136 yards (8.5 ypp). This includes a 35 yard PI penalty.

 

10 running plays netting 19 yards (1.9 ypp). This includes two 10 yard holding penalties.

 

To put the running struggles on first down into context, here is the down and distance of every play following a first down run (in order).

 

Second and 8

Second and 1

First and 10

Second and 8

Second and 9

Second and 6

First and 20

Second and 14

Second and 7

First and 20

 

In other words, the last 7 times they called running plays on first down they found themselves behind the sticks creating obvious passing downs on the following plays.  There were a grand total of two successful running plays on first down out of 10 tries.

 

The Browns stacked the box and decided to make JA beat them.  He couldn't do it.

[ILBillsfan]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

I just looked at every play called on first down and the result.  This includes positive or negative penalties.  There were 26 plays run on first down.  

 

16 passing plays netting 136 yards (8.5 ypp). This includes a 35 yard PI penalty.

 

10 running plays netting 19 yards (1.9 ypp). This includes two 10 yard holding penalties.

 

To put the running struggles on first down into context, here is the down and distance of every play following a first down run (in order).

 

Second and 8

Second and 1

First and 10

Second and 8

Second and 9

Second and 6

First and 20

Second and 14

Second and 7

First and 20

 

In other words, the last 7 times they called running plays on first down they found themselves behind the sticks creating obvious passing downs on the following plays.  There were a grand total of two successful running plays on first down out of 10 tries.

 

The Browns stacked the box and decided to make JA beat them.  He couldn't do it.

Looks like you should look at your own data he was beating them on first down

Edited November 11, 2019 by ILBillsfan

[Billl]

29 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

Looks like you should look at your own data he was beating them on first down.

Yeah kinda.  He was at least somewhat effective.

 

The issue isn't that too many pass plays were called on first down, though.  JA was much more effective when thrown against 3 DB looks (which was generally the case on first down) than he was against base and nickel/dime packages (which were generally the look on second/third and long).  It's pretty clear from these numbers that the solution to facing an 8 man front isn't too keep running the ball regardless of how ineffective it proves to be.  You beat 8 man fronts by throwing the ball effectively.

 

The play calling balance was appropriate at 64% passes vs 36% runs.  The moral of the story is that it doesn't matter what plays you call if your QB can't consistently throw the ball when the defense dares you to.  JA had some success when the defense sold out to stop the run, but he didn't really punish them enough to force them to adjust.  When Cleveland was able to either stuff the run or defend the pass with only 3 DBs to set up second and long, Allen was borderline inept.  Cleveland had a gamelan on defense, and it worked perfectly.  When you give up 14 points in today's NFL, that's a dominant performance.

[DuckyBoys]

You need to have balance and the defense needs think it could be a run or pass on most downs.  Daboll tends to abandon the run for stretches he also seems to favor a ton of empty sets .  I'd prefer he had a back next to Josh or behind him from under center  Offense seems very routine and vanilla

[row_33]

the plan is 17 points scored, so they are trying to muddle thing up in a chessmatch, the kind of game where a single or maybe 2 decent drives all game wins

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

When all the receivers drop their first 2 or 3 passes you can’t get into any rhythm to have a run game.