One important question I have on the last drive

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I see what you're saying but its hard to tell who's blitzing there - and if you guess wrong you could be screwed.  The fact that the clock was running (McD burning a timeout on D, and singletary not getting OOB) makes it worse because you just have to make a gut call.

 

Sure.

 

That's why he should just look left, realize he needs 4 yards, and throw the 5 yard curl to the guy whose defender is playing 12 yards off the line of scrimmage.

 

Horrible awareness by Allen. 

 

Don't get me started on McDermott. That's the biggest play of the game. As soon as Singletary was tackled in bounds you call a timeout, put a plan in place and run the play that's going to get you 5 yards, then go clock it. If it's incomplete you kick the field goal. 

[ILBillsfan]

58 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I agree with those suggesting that Dawkins whiffed block may have had a lot to do with this, but Josh still chose the lowest percentage / least open receiver on the field. I watched the post game presser and he proclaimed that he liked the one-on-one matchup with Brown down the field and that he had confidence that Brown could go get it. He did admit that it wasn't a good enough ball and didn't really give him a chance to do that.

 

While I am glad that Josh has confidence in his "#1 receiver", I just don't have that same confidence in Brown for back shoulder / jump ball type throws. It seems like we have built this receiving core for deep balls and timing routes, but we have a QB that just isn't very good at either of those. I truly hope he can improve and do it soon.

Go listen to Brown.  Cover zero look it was a back shoulder throw and Brown said he made the mistake.

 

So much more than than these snip it pictures.  This is the same play they score the TD in the Jets earlier this year.

 

Every week QB’s will miss wide open guys and every week some fan with a computer and no experience playing QB will say hey look he missed this 

[Thunderstruck]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just rewatched the play 4 times.

 

In no way shape or form is it Cover 0. 

 

The Browns are in a hybrid shell. Man on the near side, zone in the middle and on the far side to keep everything in front.

 

Denzel Ward is manned up against John Brown in press man coverage. That's obvious. 

 

On the other side, the CB is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage in a soft zone. He's on his heels, and is no no way going to be playing man coverage. He's already back peddling as the ball is snapped. 

 

The safety is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and shifts over towards Beasley a little bit, and probably gets to about 12 yards when the ball is snapped. Both he and the corner both appear to be be bailing deep, to not let anything behind them. 

 

There's a linebacker or safety in the middle of the field who checks our TE, but appears to also be in a zone, or possible spy in case Allen escapes the pocket.

 

It's a misread all the way by Allen. 

 

You need 4 yards, and the guys responsible for not letting Beasley get behind him is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. Just brutal situational awareness to not take the easy check down.

I'm not trying to be overly harsh on Allen- it sounds like there was some blame to go around on this play... But this is how I saw the play too.

 

So here is another question- If Dawkins kicks out and gets that block, would Allen have come back to Beasley? I guess we don't have a definitive answer for that.

[TJC25]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

 

Good comeback. You really got me. 

Your in the mind set daboll is controlling allens arm and where he throws it and when so your opinion sucks tbh 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, TJC25 said:

Your in the mind set daboll is controlling allens arm and where he throws it and when so your opinion sucks tbh 

Grown ups are talking. Please don't interrupt. 

Just now, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

That, the deep crosser, and the come back have been their bread and butter all year. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

Several

[ILBillsfan]

1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

Yeah they have in fact it got them a TD vs the Jets

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

 

Good comeback. You really got me. 

 

Hard to argue with someone who can't count to 4, ie the number of defenders in coverage.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Grown ups are talking. Please don't interrupt. 

That, the deep crosser, and the come back have been their bread and butter all year. 

 

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Several

 

haha— whoops. 

[Thunderstruck]

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

Go listen to Brown.  Cover zero look it was a back shoulder throw and Brown said he made the mistake.

 

So much more than than these snip it pictures.  This is the same play they score the TD in the Jets earlier this year.

 

Every week QB’s will miss wide open guys and every week some fan with a computer and no experience playing QB will say hey look he missed this 

I think you are missing the overall picture here- I guess that makes you "some fan with a computer who has little experience posting who likes to criticize other posters".

 

So I ask again- do you believe that the downfield back shoulder throw is a high percentage throw? Do you believe we were safely in range of a tying field goal if we don't get that play? My answer to these two questions is "NO" and I didn't have to play QB to have an opinion on that.

[poblano]

Allen go to the easiest read, in the way  the defense shows blitz you can expect a 4 man rush and the other 3 players drop in short coverage, so Allen saw one on one outside with Brown and goes there 

Obviously a bad choice, but also forced to that for the situation, not only Dawkins blew the blitz, to other players get fast in the backfield.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Hard to argue with someone who can't count to 4, ie the number of defenders in coverage.

 

Come on, its clear I'm only talking about the left side of the field...

2 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

 

haha— whoops. 

We have all been there...

[wettlaufer]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

This play continues to bother me, because this is demonstrating a terrible pattern of behavior, either by our QB or our coaching staff (maybe both?)

 

 

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, wettlaufer said:

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

 

Every one so focused on a an out of context screen grab. Its the play call people should be really pissed about.

[Scott7975]

I’m going to guess that Beasley was later in the progression tree and due to the pressure he didn’t get that far. Hopefully as he plays more he will get faster in his reads. Maybe he just liked the matchup he was shown presnap. Really the only people that know are the Buffalo Bills. Anyone here is just guessing. They may be right but it’s a guess none the less. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

On this last attempt before the field goal- Beasley is clearly wide open at the stick and could easily get 10+ yards before getting out of bounds. This gives us time for a shot or two at the end zone (if they have faith to try that) and a much easier kick for the tie.

 

I would really like to know whether this is a case of

  a) Josh not seeing the open man

  b) The coaching staff having already pre-determined that the ball was going to be forced to Brown down the sideline

  c) An immature QB that knew Beas would be open there but decided to go for the glory anyway

  d) Other suggestions?

 

This play continues to bother me, because this is demonstrating a terrible pattern of behavior, either by our QB or our coaching staff (maybe both?)

 

 

 

What Aldo Raine said about the Cover0 and pre-snap decision on Brown

 

Cover1 has some workup on it.  The thought as I understand it is that Allen has been struggling against Cover0 where "they're coming, no time to read the field" so they cooked up some pre-defined "sight adjustments" to specific plays 

That would pretty much be b) I think, but it's an illogical choice for a hot read.  That should be your quick, 7-11 guy.   "Throw At the Blitz"   But maybe other teams were (logically) covering Beasley and leaving Brown open in that situation, or maybe that's what the Browns did earlier?  I dunno.  A "go" route is really too long developing for that

 

But on the other hand, if it worked, it could win the game.  I would just like a higher percentage throw to move the chains and get the tie there.

 

I wish our press would ask Daboll some fair, "I really would like an answer" questions about this.

 

Here's the Cover1 thing

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I’m going to guess that Beasley was later in the progression tree and due to the pressure he didn’t get that far. Hopefully as he plays more he will get faster in his reads. Maybe he just liked the matchup he was shown presnap. Really the only people that know are the Buffalo Bills. Anyone here is just guessing. They may be right but it’s a guess none the less. 

 

It's Cover0.  "They're coming for you, get it out NOW".  There must BE no progression tree.

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, wettlaufer said:

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

 

The Browns are showing a sell out blitz.

 

If you need 4 yards for a first down, are you throwing the fade down the sideline against press man coverage, or the 5 yard button hook to the guy whose defender is leaning on his heels 12 yards off the line of scrimmage?

 

The answer should be an easy one, and our QB picked the wrong one. 

[Wayne Cubed]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Every one so focused on a an out of context screen grab. Its the play call people should be really pissed about.

Hmm, disagree a bit there. The play design works to get Beasley open. And I get that Allen’s been coached that when he sees 1v1 on the outside vs Cover 0 with his number 1 receiver, the ball goes there. But it’s situational awareness and how far off the secondary is playing in the bunch formation. The LB has the TE drag route but the other 2 are so far off the ball  there is cushion there for a completion. The number 1 beater of Cover 0 is the long ball to the middle of the field. The Browns obviously are playing coverage so far off to not give that up that it looks like they are willing almost to give up a 1st down. 

[Capco]

Dunno if this was said yet, but a rule of thumb when being blitzed is "pass towards the blitz, run away from the blitz".  

 

Two extra rushers came from Allen's right, one extra came from Allen's left.  According to that rule of thumb in this situation, throwing to the right is usually better (since more potential coverage defenders have left that area to blitz the QB).  

 

Could be that Allen went with that rule of thumb, but that rule of thumb doesn't account for completely blown coverages on the other side of the field aka Beasley being open.