My Current State of the Bills - My Big 5

[Virgil]

Today hurt.  It was the most upset I've been over a game all season, win or loss.  Knowing those two things, I probably shouldn't post this.  But I'm pissed and human.  Today's loss brings back all the old feelings of the past decade with blown leads, coaching changes, roster turnover, etc.  Like all of you, I so desperately want to believe this team has turned a corner and we are on our way.  Today, the past few weeks, the upcoming schedule, all make that tough to know.  With that, I think I wanted to comment on 5 key things

 

1 - Allen - I wasn't a fan of drafting him.  In the time since, I've grown to really like the kid.  I like the way he presents himself off the field, on the field, and with the media.  I like his skillset and genuinely believe he can do anything on the field.  He had a bad day today and you could see that in the post game presser.  He puts the entire loss on his shoulders and speaks to the things that we, as fans, complain about.  Last year, he showed that he could throw the ball anywhere on the field, especially the deep ball.  He made some dumb throws into coverage for INT's, but was a rookie.

 

Here's where I am on him this year.  Allen is a gunslinger.  The way that he seems better on 1st and long than 3rd and short says something about him.  I don't think you can magically forget how to hit a deep throw.  I think he might be a bit oversensitive to his mistakes and either through coaching, or his own inner-monologue, he's afraid to be himself out there.  I complained as much as the next guy about his cross-body throws into coverage that resulted in INT's, but now I'm afraid that he's losing the edge that made him explosive.  I don't know which one it is, but he needs to be encouraged to let it fly.  I think Allen can absolutely be the guy, but needs to put in situations that benefit his skill set.  He's proven that he can play the short game, the long game, can scramble, avoid blitzes, and make game winning drives.  He just hasn't been able to put it all together.  I don't care if we lose the game, but let him just throw the ball 15+ yards down field the entire game.  Stop being cute with him.  Hell, let him run shotgun hurry up the entire game, but get it out.  I'm afraid that he's regressing into a conservative player that he will never succeed as and he needs to be unleashed before it's too late for him.

 

2 - Daboll.  I firmly believe that Daboll needs to be fired.  I worry that McD isn't an offensive minded enough coach to really understand that side of the ball so he may not know quick enough where the real issue is.  Daboll has never, and I mean never, succeeded as an offensive coordinator.  His ranks have always been in the bottom half of the league.  I think he's ruining Allen, not utilizing our weapons (8 carries for Singletary?!), and overall doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt.  Does he call a total trash can game?  No.  But that doesn't excuse the entire body of work.  My only fear for firing Daboll is Allen having to learn a new terminology and starting over again.  I'd be okay promoting from within or finding someone who works a similar system.  I genuinely believe the talent is there on this offense to be better than what we've seen.  Do we need a genuine #1 still?  Yes.  But that's not why we are underperforming.

 

3 - Defensive Box - Outside of Edmunds and Milano, I'm nervous that we are going to blow up our front 7 over the next two years.  Between expiring contracts, age, and performance, I don't want to see us put the focus back on that side of the ball again, where McD favors and we spend the first 2 years focusing.  The amount of money we've spent on that part of the team is inexcusable for the result we are seeing.  Oliver is showing bust potential (for as much as you can see in a first season).  What was meant to be a strength of this team is getting worse each week and we only seem to generate solid pressure when sending extra guys.  I don't know who has what gap assignment and who is playing contain, but the result is poor.

 

4 - Schedule - I hate I told you so's.  I think you should be able to punch people in the face who imply it and then get a reward.  Many have complained about our lack of media respect, but our most respectable win was against the Titans.  We've been beat by all 3 teams with any semblance of talent.  I'm not saying we are going to miss the playoffs.  I don't know right now.  But there's no reason for me to say with confidence that we will convincingly beat any team left on our schedule after today.  We've only put one team away this whole season, and that's the Giants.  We've been within one score up until that last 8 minutes in every game this season.   Miami easily could have been a loss if Tre didn't bail us out.  For those saying 6-3 is all that matters, that's true for your record when deciding who is in the playoffs.  But how you win is an indicator of how your next games will go. 

 

5.  McD and Regime - I'M NOT FIRING McD or Beane.  We are midway through year 3.  Even if we finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs, I think they are safe for next year.  However, the rest of this season and next season is going to be where we figure out if it all gets blown up again.  And this is where I'm at in writing this.  I shouldn't even be thinking about that possibility after a 6-2 start.  But tell me you didn't think about it a little today or that it hasn't been creeping in.  Let's be honest, the AFC sucks this year.  The bottom dwellers will become more competitive.  Many of our wins won't be as easy next year.   To stand by your GM and Coach, you need to know you will be competitive, you have areas on offense or defense with a winning identity, and you show progress towards getting better.  Our offense isn't showing any progression at all.  Our defensive front 4 is regressing.  Our stars are still performing like stars and we have a lot of question marks.  Mcd and Beane have 23 more games to show us the result of the process.  We've seen glimpses and understand the goal.  Will we see the finished product?

 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Virgil

[Big Blitz]

I think if we miss the playoffs and the offense remains in it's current state (looks no different in December than it did in October) and we have more games wondering why DS only had 8 carries, Daboll will be gone.    

 

 

[fansince88]

@Virgil. I feel ya bud. Keep your chin up. The system on Offense is not flawed. Perhapse there is someone within the system that knows better how to call it in game. We shall see

[DuckyBoys]

1,  they but a parking boot on Allen  His body language has not been right since daboll chewed him out during the NE game  You can clearly see he's second guessing himself and he's become afraid to take any chances lest he throw a pick

 

2.  Yes  Dabol is a problem.  Each week he outsmarts himself.  Browns stink against the run so we throw

 

3. I have that sick feeling we'll forgo game breaking talent on offense to get McDermott more toys for his D

 

4. Goes with playing the conservative dont lose the game style McDermott wont let go of

 

5. Yeah it would be more gut churning to see another new regime/roster turnover  Bad thing is I dont believe McDermott will change his philosophy so were stuck with dont get beat over the top Tampa 2 defense and uninspired low risk no reward offense

 

6.  You forgot to mention change here takes forever.   McDermott stuck with Kelvin Benjamin for way too long.  Lee Smith will be back out there next week for his mandatory holding and false start.  DiMarco will be active even though we dont utilize a fullback to block.  Dabol will forget about the run even though the Dolphins are #31 against the run and have given up 19 tds on the ground

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

4 - Schedule - I hate I told you so's.  I think you should be able to punch people in the face who imply it and then get a reward.  Many have complained about our lack of media respect, but our most respectable loss was against the Titans.  We've been beat by all 3 teams with any semblance of talent.  I'm not saying we are going to miss the playoffs.  I don't know right now.  But there's no reason for me to say with confidence that we will convincingly beat any team left on our schedule after today.  We've only put one team away this whole season, and that's the Giants.  We've been within one score up until that last 8 minutes in every game this season.   Miami easily could have been a loss if Tre didn't bail us out.  For those saying 6-3 is all that matters, that's true for your record when deciding who is in the playoffs.  But how you win is an indicator of how your next games will go. 

 

 

 

we lost to the Titans?  hmmm  sounds like fake news.

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, Comebackkid said:

we lost to the Titans?  hmmm  sounds like fake news.

damn it.  Fixed 

[Comebackkid]

As good as  Anthony Lynn was with designing a  run game..it makes me wonder what he would have done with Josh had he stayed.    I know he's had success  with the chargers but cmon...he's had drew brees.     I bring this up just because when you start talking about changing OC's its just a grab bag of who knows what your going to get.   I'm not at all impressed with Daboll but I wonder..who..where we would find someone better.   

Edited November 11, 2019 by Comebackkid

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This team and staff has a different feel that prior teams that have collapsed. We’ll be alright, win 10 games, and make the playoffs. Don’t fret, OP. ?

[london_bills]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Today hurt.  It was the most upset I've been over a game all season, win or loss.  Knowing those two things, I probably shouldn't post this.  But I'm pissed and human.  Today's loss brings back all the old feelings of the past decade with blown leads, coaching changes, roster turnover, etc.  Like all of you, I so desperately want to believe this team has turned a corner and we are on our way.  Today, the past few weeks, the upcoming schedule, all make that tough to know.  With that, I think I wanted to comment on 5 key things

 

1 - Allen - I wasn't a fan of drafting him.  In the time since, I've grown to really like the kid.  I like the way he presents himself off the field, on the field, and with the media.  I like his skillset and genuinely believe he can do anything on the field.  He had a bad day today and you could see that in the post game presser.  He puts the entire loss on his shoulders and speaks to the things that we, as fans, complain about.  Last year, he showed that he could throw the ball anywhere on the field, especially the deep ball.  He made some dumb throws into coverage for INT's, but was a rookie.

 

Here's where I am on him this year.  Allen is a gunslinger.  The way that he seems better on 1st and long than 3rd and short says something about him.  I don't think you can magically forget how to hit a deep throw.  I think he might be a bit oversensitive to his mistakes and either through coaching, or his own inner-monologue, he's afraid to be himself out there.  I complained as much as the next guy about his cross-body throws into coverage that resulted in INT's, but now I'm afraid that he's losing the edge that made him explosive.  I don't know which one it is, but he needs to be encouraged to let it fly.  I think Allen can absolutely be the guy, but needs to put in situations that benefit his skill set.  He's proven that he can play the short game, the long game, can scramble, avoid blitzes, and make game winning drives.  He just hasn't been able to put it all together.  I don't care if we lose the game, but let him just throw the ball 15+ yards down field the entire game.  Stop being cute with him.  Hell, let him run shotgun hurry up the entire game, but get it out.  I'm afraid that he's regressing into a conservative player that he will never succeed as and he needs to be unleashed before it's too late for him.

 

2 - Daboll.  I firmly believe that Daboll needs to be fired.  I worry that McD isn't an offensive minded enough coach to really understand that side of the ball so he may not know quick enough where the real issue is.  Daboll has never, and I mean never, succeeded as an offensive coordinator.  His ranks have always been in the bottom half of the league.  I think he's ruining Allen, not utilizing our weapons (8 carries for Singletary?!), and overall doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt.  Does he call a total trash can game?  No.  But that doesn't excuse the entire body of work.  My only fear for firing Daboll is Allen having to learn a new terminology and starting over again.  I'd be okay promoting from within or finding someone who works a similar system.  I genuinely believe the talent is there on this offense to be better than what we've seen.  Do we need a genuine #1 still?  Yes.  But that's not why we are underperforming.

 

3 - Defensive Box - Outside of Edmunds and Milano, I'm nervous that we are going to blow up our front 7 over the next two years.  Between expiring contracts, age, and performance, I don't want to see us put the focus back on that side of the ball again, where McD favors and we spend the first 2 years focusing.  The amount of money we've spent on that part of the team is inexcusable for the result we are seeing.  Oliver is showing bust potential (for as much as you can see in a first season).  What was meant to be a strength of this team is getting worse each week and we only seem to generate solid pressure when sending extra guys.  I don't know who has what gap assignment and who is playing contain, but the result is poor.

 

4 - Schedule - I hate I told you so's.  I think you should be able to punch people in the face who imply it and then get a reward.  Many have complained about our lack of media respect, but our most respectable win was against the Titans.  We've been beat by all 3 teams with any semblance of talent.  I'm not saying we are going to miss the playoffs.  I don't know right now.  But there's no reason for me to say with confidence that we will convincingly beat any team left on our schedule after today.  We've only put one team away this whole season, and that's the Giants.  We've been within one score up until that last 8 minutes in every game this season.   Miami easily could have been a loss if Tre didn't bail us out.  For those saying 6-3 is all that matters, that's true for your record when deciding who is in the playoffs.  But how you win is an indicator of how your next games will go. 

 

5.  McD and Regime - I'M NOT FIRING McD or Beane.  We are midway through year 3.  Even if we finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs, I think they are safe for next year.  However, the rest of this season and next season is going to be where we figure out if it all gets blown up again.  And this is where I'm at in writing this.  I shouldn't even be thinking about that possibility after a 6-2 start.  But tell me you didn't think about it a little today or that it hasn't been creeping in.  Let's be honest, the AFC sucks this year.  The bottom dwellers will become more competitive.  Many of our wins won't be as easy next year.   To stand by your GM and Coach, you need to know you will be competitive, you have areas on offense or defense with a winning identity, and you show progress towards getting better.  Our offense isn't showing any progression at all.  Our defensive front 4 is regressing.  Our stars are still performing like stars and we have a lot of question marks.  Mcd and Beane have 23 more games to show us the result of the process.  We've seen glimpses and understand the goal.  Will we see the finished product?

 

 

Good Post. Interesting read. 

 

1. Allen as a gunslinger. This goes against McDermott's nature. He wants to win games. Something is different with Allen but I'm not seeing the presence and consistency of a top QB even if he has been reigned in. 

 

2. I get concerned that mcdermott neglects the offence. Surely as a defensive expert that qualifies you to know what's hard to defend. 

[LABILLBACKER]

As you said today pissed me off more than other loses. And yes it brought back that all too familiar billsy feeling. Josh's recent regression has alot to do with Dumboll who I would've fired earlier this season. The guy has no clue what he's doing and will destroy any chance JA has to move beyond a "project" status. Is "McD the Conservative" going to take forever to fire Daboll like he took 2 seasons to realize Peterman sucked. There are no winnable games left on our schedule after todays debacle. Anyone's capable of beating us. I doubt we're making the playoffs. I doubt we have any shot of drafting a top wr in the 1st round. And I doubt McD's ability to turn things around in year 4. I'm sorry this is so pessimistic. It's not what I wanted.

[Chandler#81]

You’re right. You shouldn’t have LAMPed.