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A Few Thoughts about the Browns Game, In no particular order


Virgil

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Just now, Jaraxxus said:

 

So, in your abject terror over unlost fumbles, are you going to tell him not to run? Because I'm certain that is the same thing that's neutered his long ball, but with fear of interceptions.

Oh god dude, you are having trouble here. Not telling him not to run, I'm saying HOLD ON TO THE ***** BALL!!. Main point.

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Here are Joe B's 7 (paraphrased) observations:

 

https://theathletic.com/1368065/2019/11/11/7-observations-from-bills-browns-josh-allens-weaknesses-exposed-questionable-decisions-and-more/?source=shared-article

1) Allen has progressed but is now in a holding pattern

For the fourth straight game, Allen did not throw an interception. Allen showed signs of life, and he doesn’t deserve all of the blame for Sunday’s loss. The Bills needed more from their starting quarterback on Sunday. He got a bit lucky with the fumble, which is another problem he must address. Outside of that, he had opportunities to make plays, specifically deep down the field, that he missed — and it’s not a one-game problem. Allen has failed to complete a deep ball in 2019 and has missed multiple opportunities for points. It’s often a low percentage throw, which is why you don’t go to it frequently during a game, but it shouldn’t be a no-percentage throw.  It seems he’s still having some trouble diagnosing where the additional pressure is coming from pre-snap. As the Bills enter the stretch run, Allen needs to find the sweet spot between reckless and risk-less. He needs to have the mentality to take the game over, especially in late situations. But if the Bills aren’t reinforcing that it’s OK to take some calculated risks, they’d be denying Allen the cushion to try what made him so unique in the first place. The Bills need to figure out what’s most important. Is it for Allen to manage the game and avoid turnovers, or is it to allow him the freedom to do the things that drew them to him in the draft?

 

2) The lack of offense is a stark reminder of what 2019 is about

Think about how much different you’d be feeling after this game if the Bills, and Allen, scored one more touchdown. Two more touchdowns and fans would be throwing a party that the offense finally had woken up. The margins are so slim in the NFL, but it’s truly the difference between good and great. What we see from this Bills offense is a reminder that they are good, but not great. The offense has sputtered far too often while juggling with what they want the identity of their quarterback to be in 2019.

 

The Bills can’t tolerate mistakes or stagnancy forever, but this is the year that sets up the important one, in 2020. You hear it all the time from McDermott when asked about the big picture — they know the early success this year doesn’t take away from the groundwork they’re trying to put in place. The Bills have gone from a team with few expectations to playoffs-or-bust following their start, but right or wrong, that’s not what this season is all about to them. They want to make the playoffs, of course, but they’ve invested in setting the table for what they hope will be a big jump in 2020. Allen will be in his third year, and if a quarterback is going to hit, there’s usually a similarly big jump from the second to the third season.

It’s not an excuse for losses like this one to Cleveland, which is a game the Bills probably should have won. They’re getting closer to executing their timeline. 

 

3) The Bills’ leaks on defense have sprung

The Bills’ run defense has come a long way since getting stomped left and right in coach Sean McDermott’s first season. But the pieces they’ve added can’t seem to get out of their way — it’s not a one-person problem. Browns running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt found ways to confuse the Bills all game long. The Browns used the Philadelphia model of putting two running backs in the backfield, with one as a lead blocker, to try to force the Bills into mistakes. While they avoided giving up a long touchdown, they missed far too many tackles and improperly filled in the running lanes on too many occasions. 

 

The Bills seem to have a systematic flaw at the moment and have failed to provide an answer. Facing numerous potent rushing attacks in the coming weeks, the Bills have to make adjustments. They’ve switched up their rotations a bit, but the problems might call for defensive looks that are outside of their comfort zone. Before this week, I could understand the logic that it wasn’t the personnel, but the lack of execution, on a handful of plays. That isn’t the case any longer: Stopping the run has become a full-game problem, and one that requires a definitive answer next week.

 

4) Game on the line: Why Corey Liuget?

On Cleveland’s game-winning drive, the Bills forced the Browns in to a third-and-7 at their own 35-yard line. It was a passing situation, so the Bills removed defensive tackle Lotulelei and inserted another pass rusher into the lineup to put more pressure on Baker Mayfield. Lotulelei had been on the field for just four plays before that one, so fatigue shouldn’t have been an issue. The Browns converted on the third down, which set them up at their own 44-yard line. On the ensuing first down, rather than putting Lotulelei back in the game, the Bills sent in Corey Liuget. Liuget had signed with the team the past Tuesday and, to that point, hadn’t taken a snap since the 4:02 mark in the third quarter. The Browns spotted Liuget and ran it at his side, easily turning him inside. Murphy attempted to get inside of the tackles to overcompensate, and Chubb bounced outside of Murphy. Chubb ran for 21 yards and put the Browns 35 yards out from the end zone. It was a potentially game-changing play.

 

Excuse me for all of the rapid-fire reactions. Why was the team’s top run-stuffing defensive tackle, Lotulelei, not in the game at the most critical moment? The Bills changed their philosophy on their rotation patterns, so why was it on that play hat they elected to give Lotulelei a breather? And if not Lotulelei, why wouldn’t they put Oliver in the game along with Phillips? Why did it have to be the player they just signed on Tuesday that barely knows their system? It was illogical and a crucial error late in the game, especially when the Browns were having success on the ground. 

 

5) The Bills aren’t getting enough from Trent Murphy

The Bills haven’t been getting enough pressure from Murphy on pass-rush situations the whole season, but he’s remained in the coaching staff’s good graces because of his effort against the run. When Murphy is struggling against the run, justifying his starting spot becomes far more difficult. Murphy has been a complete non-factor when teams drop back to pass. Murphy’s lack of production as a pass rusher is the primary reason that defensive end is looking more like the team’s top draft need in 2020.

 

6) The Bills needed more Foster down the stretch

Despite Allen’s lack of execution in the passing attack, the Bills employed strong personnel strategies against the Browns. The same can’t be said about the team’s final offensive drive. Daboll was consistently switching up the personnel during drives so that the defense couldn’t settle in against the same players. But when the Bills needed points to extend or win the game, the substitutions evaporated. Instead, Buffalo went with Singletary, Brown, Beasley, McKenzie and one either tight end Dawson Knox or Tyler Kroft.e caused the big pass interference penalty at the beginning of the game, and then roped in a 20-yard reception on a crossing pattern. And whenever he was on the field, the Browns gave him their full attention. When lined up on the side opposite Brown, Foster would sometimes draw free safety Damarious Randall closer to his side, which created more room for the Bills’ top wideout. With the game on the line, though, the Bills didn’t provide much variation and made the play predictable to the Browns.

 

7) Hat tip to a new fourth-down strategy

There’s plenty of criticism to go around, but going for it on fourth-and-4 twice shouldn’t be one of the targets. One was at Cleveland’s 36-yard line and another at their 39. Neither attempt resulted in a conversion, but the fact they’re willing to go for it in those situations is a respectable shift in philosophy. The Bills have been more aggressive on fourth downs overall this season — they went for a two-point conversion after a penalty earlier in the season and have elected to enforce penalties against their opponents when given the option. They are taking steps to change their ways, and there are examples of them all season.

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46 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

That's where I go back to the coaching and play calling. It almost reeks of the be aggressive but don't turn the ball over via INT and coaching him into not making the throws he would make last year. It's telling Farve to not take chances, so yeah you take away the INT's but you take away the essence as to who that QB is. Honestly if your coaching style and identity is to do that, you drafted the wrong QB in the first place...

It makes me think that this scheme would be best with a game manager at QB. But then, what happens with that QB when the team gets behind and the OC goes pass happy again?

 

Last weeks offense against Washington when the Bills got the lead is to run more and pass less to the tune of 39 rushing attempts for 122 yards vs 14 of 20 passes for 146 yards. "Perfection" as the offense worked Singletary 20 rushes for 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC avg. 3 passes for 45 yards.

 

This week against the Browns the Bills don't get the lead and the OC goes pass happy while forgetting the run game. Singletary only 8 rushes for 42 yards, a 5.3 YPC avg which was almost criminal with a better YPC avg. 

 

Allen is doing exactly what this HC wants him to do in limiting turnovers while throttling back Allen's gunslinger style. Daboll calls plays like he has an elite QB behind center and not a 2nd year, young, inexperienced still developing QB. Plus he throws out a game plan that works when the team gets behind in points in any amount. He did this most of last season when the team got behind on the scoreboard too. 

 

When you look at Brian Daboll's history in the NFL you realize there is a real reason why he has never fielded a passing offense better then 23rd in passing yards 6 yrs as an NFL OC with 4 different teams. 

 

I think McD hired Daboll thinking he was getting another Bill O'Brian (who can make almost any QB look good) and instead hired a Nathaniel Hackett who needs an experienced, veteran QB to run his plays. Think Orton. 

 

If this team with a "going pass happy offense" when the Bills don't get a lead...this team might not win another game. Dolphins, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, NY Jets. 

 

After last weeks game i thought McD had a talk with Daboll and now realize he didn't.  This OC needs to go! 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

It makes me think that this scheme would be best with a game manager at QB. But then, what happens with that QB when the team gets behind and the OC goes pass happy again?

 

Last weeks offense against Washington when the Bills got the lead is to run more and pass less to the tune of 39 rushing attempts for 122 yards vs 14 of 20 passes for 146 yards. "Perfection" as the offense worked Singletary 20 rushes for 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC avg. 3 passes for 45 yards.

 

This week against the Browns the Bills don't get the lead and the OC goes pass happy while forgetting the run game. Singletary only 8 rushes for 42 yards, a 5.3 YPC avg which was almost criminal with a better YPC avg. 

 

Allen is doing exactly what this HC wants him to do in limiting turnovers while throttling back Allen's gunslinger style. Daboll calls plays like he has an elite QB behind center and not a 2nd year, young, inexperienced still developing QB. Plus he throws out a game plan that works when the team gets behind in points in any amount. He did this most of last season when the team got behind on the scoreboard too. 

 

When you look at Brian Daboll's history in the NFL you realize there is a real reason why he has never fielded a passing offense better then 23rd in passing yards 6 yrs as an NFL OC with 4 different teams. 

 

I think McD hired Daboll thinking he was getting another Bill O'Brian (who can make almost any QB look good) and instead hired a Nathaniel Hackett who needs an experienced, veteran QB to run his plays. Think Orton. 

 

If this team with a "going pass happy offense" when the Bills don't get a lead...this team might not win another game. Dolphins, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, NY Jets. 

 

After last weeks game i thought McD had a talk with Daboll and now realize he didn't.  This OC needs to go! 

 

 

Coaching the coaches. You did a really nice job with this write up!

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1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's not growing and that is the problem, it has been stagnant the last, what, 3-4 games? Allen has plateaued and when the play calling oscillates between having flow and moving the ball; running 4 verts on 3rd and short with Roberts & Beasley on the field; running Singletary 8 times against the 30th ranked run defense, wasting 30 seconds at the end of the game for a FG at a range where our kicker is not able to hit 50 yards, etc.

 

Yeah, I can understand seeing it this way.  I just choose to believe that Daboll and McD are not complete idiots, and they are seeing something during the week we are not.  I could be wrong.

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35 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yeah, I can understand seeing it this way.  I just choose to believe that Daboll and McD are not complete idiots, and they are seeing something during the week we are not.  I could be wrong.

I perfectly understand you as well!

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36 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yeah, I can understand seeing it this way.  I just choose to believe that Daboll and McD are not complete idiots, and they are seeing something during the week we are not.  I could be wrong.


I don’t think they are idiots.  I think Daboll is partially stubborn but overall not a good enough coordinator to beat it. 
 

His prior performance is would back that up 

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Daboll outsmarts himself  Miami is bottom defense against the run but he'll probably dial up 40+ passes again

also if you are going to play action pass you actually need to hand it off a few times  I swear anytime Allen is under center its a play action pass other than goal line and end of the game running the clock out

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1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

It makes me think that this scheme would be best with a game manager at QB. But then, what happens with that QB when the team gets behind and the OC goes pass happy again?

 

Last weeks offense against Washington when the Bills got the lead is to run more and pass less to the tune of 39 rushing attempts for 122 yards vs 14 of 20 passes for 146 yards. "Perfection" as the offense worked Singletary 20 rushes for 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC avg. 3 passes for 45 yards.

 

This week against the Browns the Bills don't get the lead and the OC goes pass happy while forgetting the run game. Singletary only 8 rushes for 42 yards, a 5.3 YPC avg which was almost criminal with a better YPC avg. 

 

Allen is doing exactly what this HC wants him to do in limiting turnovers while throttling back Allen's gunslinger style. Daboll calls plays like he has an elite QB behind center and not a 2nd year, young, inexperienced still developing QB. Plus he throws out a game plan that works when the team gets behind in points in any amount. He did this most of last season when the team got behind on the scoreboard too. 

 

When you look at Brian Daboll's history in the NFL you realize there is a real reason why he has never fielded a passing offense better then 23rd in passing yards 6 yrs as an NFL OC with 4 different teams. 

 

I think McD hired Daboll thinking he was getting another Bill O'Brian (who can make almost any QB look good) and instead hired a Nathaniel Hackett who needs an experienced, veteran QB to run his plays. Think Orton. 

 

If this team with a "going pass happy offense" when the Bills don't get a lead...this team might not win another game. Dolphins, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, NY Jets. 

 

After last weeks game i thought McD had a talk with Daboll and now realize he didn't.  This OC needs to go! 

 

 

........series of one year stops as OC with the exception of two years at Cleveland with Mangini, are very telling IMO....certainly NOT reasonable to expect an OC to turn around a fledgling offense in one year......assuming a GM/HC combo like what they see, you keep him.....but he's gone after one.....I'm probably reading too much into this (as usual)......

5 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Daboll outsmarts himself  Miami is bottom defense against the run but he'll probably dial up 40+ passes again

also if you are going to play action pass you actually need to hand it off a few times  I swear anytime Allen is under center its a play action pass other than goal line and end of the game running the clock out

 

....and we have Cleveland at #24 for rush defense and Singeltary gets "overworked" with EIGHT carries.......go figure.....

                                            

                                           ATT    YDS   TD

24 Cleveland Browns 9   250    1214    8  
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3 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Coaching the coaches. You did a really nice job with this write up!

Thanks.

 

What really frustrates me about the current offense is that it looks like this OC doesn't look at whats going on with the opposing defense he is facing. It's almost like he is the opposite of his mentor in Bill Bilichick, who endlessly studies opponents tendencies and film.

 

The stats show that the Browns have the #7 defense in passing yards along with #2 player in the NFL in sacks with 10.0 in Miles Garrett. So, why on gods green earth would you have your young, inexperienced QB throw the ball 41 times against that defense. Its like he wants the QB thrown into the hottest fire he can find.

 

Meanwhile, this same Browns defense was 27th against the run while being 28th in being yards per carry averaged against them. I just don't get it. You would think that any other OC  would find a way to run every run play imaginable against the Browns while using the the full cast of RBs!  It doesn't need to be Gore up the middle all game either. 

 

In any event, if Hauschka makes the 37 yarder, and the 53, its a 22-19 win. 

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1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

Thanks.

 

What really frustrates me about the current offense is that it looks like this OC doesn't look at whats going on with the opposing defense he is facing. It's almost like he is the opposite of his mentor in Bill Bilichick, who endlessly studies opponents tendencies and film.

 

The stats show that the Browns have the #7 defense in passing yards along with #2 player in the NFL in sacks with 10.0 in Miles Garrett. So, why on gods green earth would you have your young, inexperienced QB throw the ball 41 times against that defense. Its like he wants the QB thrown into the hottest fire he can find.

 

Meanwhile, this same Browns defense was 27th against the run while being 28th in being yards per carry averaged against them. I just don't get it. You would think that any other OC  would find a way to run every run play imaginable against the Browns while using the the full cast of RBs!  It doesn't need to be Gore up the middle all game either. 

 

In any event, if Hauschka makes the 37 yarder, and the 53, its a 22-19 win. 

If you listen to his presser today, his moving away from the run was the Browns stuffing the box
 

McD (I think it was him ,maybe it was Dabs) alluded to not winning at the line of scrimmage 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He needs to be schemed open. 

 

He was open all day on that slant route in man coverage and the curls he does on the third downs all year he gets huge separation obviously.  I think he had most 3rd down conversion receptions in the league as of last week.  He's the real deal AND he's a quiet, respectful, hard working dude, which is a must on this team.

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4 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Doesn't make me feel great about Allen or Daboll honestly

That said if the Brown's defender doesn't tip the screen on 1st down there's a good chance that Singletary takes that screen to the house and Daboll and Allen both look like the clutch game winners they were pulling out close games earlier this season.  I'd  also like to mention that as good as the goal line stands were the number of "chunk" plays we were giving up right out of the gate in this game were alarming.  I think three quarters of the plays on the first two drives went for 10 plus yards against our defense.  I'm all for bend and don't break but I think this was about the time McD took over play calling from Frasier last time this was happening.

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23 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

All he needed was to make 1 FG.......just one to tie and 2 to win.

Who do we really think we are by going for it on 4th down twice in one game. It's not like the wind was a factor.

 

I don't get it.


I am on the “go for it” train if it’s outside of 50 yards.

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11 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:


While I agree, against the Cover 0 you should punish them with the deep ball, the routes need to be going to the middle of the field where there is no safety help. Going for a fade up the sideline, the sideline works as another defender. 

Yep I hear across the middle is the way to go in theory. In practice I see the fade used more than the post successfully. I think it boils down to ensuring enough protection for the long route pre-snap.. which is what I found most egregious from the offense. 

 

Regardless the most important part is throwing an accurate ball over the defender which I don't have a ton of confidence in so maybe the point is moot. Same story with having a more athletic WR making plays at the other end. If I'm a DC I'd play a looot of cover 0 against this offense. And Beli is gonna do that.

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

If you listen to his presser today, his moving away from the run was the Browns stuffing the box
 

McD (I think it was him ,maybe it was Dabs) alluded to not winning at the line of scrimmage 

 

 

I get that running a scheme on game day is like playing a Grand masters chess match. So when an OC sees the opponent stacking the box like they do to stop the run.

 

Then why not spread the formation out with 3 to 5 wideouts instead of running a tight formation or even an elephant/goal line offense? This causes so many mismatches as suddenly the defense must go nickle or dime depending. And when they do that one missed tackle means its off to the races. Chan Gailey made a living out of running out of a spread 4-5 wide shotgun formation with Spiller. 

 

Or, if the OC is obstinate about a tight formation, when running it have three offensive tackles on the line to force power some holes? Its what Cam Cameron used to do with the Ravens run game and opponents had no answer for it usually. Both sides knew they were going to run it and they couldn't stop it... also makes for some great play action.

 

To me, it just makes no sense at all to make that young, inexperienced QB carry the offense all game by throwing it 40+ times. Its what losing teams with top QBs do all the time. 

 

After watching Singletary against the Redskins he looks to be a special RB that can be the star player on offense, so why not make him the focal point instead? 

 

 

 

Going back to the play by play in the Bills first series Singletary had one carry off RG for 4 yards. The Bills second series it was DeMarco off RG for 2 yards, Gore off RG for 4 yards. 

 

Third series, Singletary off RG for 9 yards, next play Gore off RG for 3 yards first down. Allen run first down, Allen pass. Singletary off left tackle for 8 yards, Gore RT for 2 yards. This series resulted in a rush TD by Allen. 

 

Fourth series it was all Allen with 10 passes and one run, no RB runs at all. FG no good near end of first half.

 

I think Daboll is full of crap. 19 passes vs 7 rushes in the first half. Singletary 3 rushes for 21 yards. 

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On 11/10/2019 at 9:57 PM, cgg716 said:

Legit question, why does everyone on this board act like QBs missing throws is exclusively a Bills thing? All QBs do it, multiple times, every game. But most QBs don’t have coaches who give them no margin for error BY DESIGN 


Every QB does miss throws.  Every QB makes other mistakes too.  But they all do those things at different rates.  I would refer you to Allen’s advanced stats that point to him missing throws and making other mistakes at much higher rates than a good starting NFL QB should be.  And things like advanced stats are important to look at because we all see Allen make good plays too.  He makes some excellent throws/plays every game.  Those give fans hope, but consistency is the issue.  When you compare the rate of good and bad plays, he is coming up very short.  Just take a look at how he ranks - and note that he’d be behind more QBs if more had enough pass attempts to qualify (second table) but didn’t due to injury:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019


 

 

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