A bit of future scouting - Browns @ Broncos

[Paul Costa]

Nice insight. Thanks ? 

[BuffaloMatt]

Don't forget the return of HUNT. How will Freddie use both in backfield? Bills have no film on this.

[yungmack]

Haven't watched much Denver but your analysis of the Browns is what I'm seeing. Wish the Bills brought you in as a consultant.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Nice post, Gunner.  A few comments below:

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Browns

Make Mayfield hold the football. Baker Mayfield has always been at his best in a rhythm passing offense. When he can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his first read he is a more decisive and accurate passer. If you can take his first read away or get early pressure that takes eyes away from looking down the field and makes them look at the rush then he holds the ball and it is when he holds the ball that bad things tend to happen. He makes poor decisions, takes bad sacks and when he does throw it his accuracy drops off. The Bills early in the season were getting good push early in the middle of the pocket and changing coverages just before the snap on defense. They had to simplify some of that last week in an effort to shore up the run defense but they will need to be able to both get pressure early and disguise their coverage to confuse Baker Mayfield and force errant throws.

 

Obviously, with Chubb and Hunt the potential for being run over or susceptible to the screen is strong.

 

What do you see as potential strategies where the Bills can maintain a strong run defense while disguising coverages?  Because I could be wrong, but it seems to me that the way the Bills handle shoring up the run D is to play man, and I'm not sure how well they disguise it.

 

In short I agree with you on the strategy but I'm unclear on how the Bills have the hosses on D to both play stout run D and get push/disguise coverage.

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Make Duke active. I was in favour of having Duke inactive last week based on a pretty lacklustre day against the Eagles and the matchup vs the Washington secondary. However, he should play this week. My knock on Denzel Ward coming out of college was whether he was really suited outside in the NFL against bigger, stronger, more physical receivers. Physicality was a knock on Greedy Williams last year too who while 6'2 has been questioned in respect of his willingness to mix it with big guys. Now Duke Williams is most decidedly not Courtland Sutton from a talent standpoint (more on him later) but he is that bigger more physical type that Ward in particular is struggling against. This to me is what Duke is - a game plan specific weapon. He suited the way you beat the Tennessee corners and he suits the way I think the Bills should attack the Browns corners too.

 

Last week, McKensie played more of a role in the pass game even with Foster active.  Foster has made some key ST plays as the Gunner.

 

So if you want to see the Duke - and you could be right that he's a good matchup here - who do you scratch?

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Use the aggressiveness of the Cleveland Dline against them. Myles Garrett is great but he is so aggressive and gets up the field so quickly that you can expose them with bubble screens to the outside and delayed hand offs. Equally the middle of that defensive line has not proven it can hold up against the run so it should be an easier assignment inside for the Bills blockers and backs than the past two weeks against Washington and Philadelphia's defensive interiors.

 

Have the Bills ever successfully run a bubble screen under Daboll?  Can you even think of more than a handful of good examples of any successful screen last 2 seasons?

 

I'll worry about the Broncs after the Browns go down to a well-earned defeat.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Obviously, with Chubb and Hunt the potential for being run over or susceptible to the screen is strong.

 

What do you see as potential strategies where the Bills can maintain a strong run defense while disguising coverages?  Because I could be wrong, but it seems to me that the way the Bills handle shoring up the run D is to play man, and I'm not sure how well they disguise it.

 

In short I agree with you on the strategy but I'm unclear on how the Bills have the hosses on D to both play stout run D and get push/disguise coverage.

 

Very fair question. The way they did it in the second half against Washington required them to play a lot more man than is usual (which reduces their ability to disguise coverages) and to two gap a little bit up front and have Ed Oliver on the field less (which reduces their ability to push the pocket from the interior). So it is a concern. I think I would be minded to play a little bit of two gap mixed in but largely to run my scheme and not over compensate for the run game. And then I need my guys to play better. Eventually you can't keep using scheme to protect Edmunds and Milano they have to identify and then hit their gaps better.

 

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Last week, McKensie played more of a role in the pass game even with Foster active.  Foster has made some key ST plays as the Gunner.

 

So if you want to see the Duke - and you could be right that he's a good matchup here - who do you scratch?

 

Again - fair question. I debated this in the shout box earlier. It would probably be Foster for me but I could take an argument about going into the game with only two TEs. They are not as yet a huge part of Daboll's offense and I haven't seen on tape a huge difference between Smith's blocking over and above Knox and Kroft. I doubt the Bills go this way but Lee Smith would be my other candidate for scratching.

 

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Have the Bills ever successfully run a bubble screen under Daboll?  Can you even think of more than a handful of good examples of any successful screen last 2 seasons?

 

We ran a good screen last week! But no, we are not a great screen team. I think the problem with the bubble screens to McKenzie (and actually increasingly the tap passes) is they don't put him on the field in another other situations. So teams are immediately alive to those two possibilities as soon as they see him out there.

[KGun12TD]

Double Sutton when we have perhaps the best CB in the game?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, KGun12TD said:

Double Sutton when we have perhaps the best CB in the game?

 

As I say I think he is the type that has given White his toughest games in the league. It is that 6'3 guy who is long and wirey and has those long thin limbs and runs a 4.50 that has got him on the odd occasion he has been got. The Bills don't play a huge amount of man anyway but I would be wary about just saying to White "take away Sutton".

[KGun12TD]

Fair enough! BTW your thoughts are great...

[GG]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Interesting, because in college he was praised for his ability to make plays on the broken play. Guess that's harder in the NFL.

 

Few things were noticeable - he didn't have that much real estate to improvise and was rushing the throws, even if he could have extended a play by a bit.  It looked very similar to how poorly Brady's passes have looked this year when his timing is disrupted.

[GoBills808]

@GunnerBill One thing I expect to happen (not necessarily because of game planning but a byproduct of the Browns defensive issues/discipline) is for Allen to have one of his big rushing games. The Browns have been hurt with timely QB runs for first downs, big gains etc...they are susceptible to mobile QBs.

[blacklabel]

Nice post, OP.

 

I'd say Cleveland is more of a concern than Denver at this point. I'm pretty sure some players in Denver are already tuned out. They don't play with a lot of urgency or aggressiveness. I watched them against KC on Thursday night a few weeks back and they were down by two scores with four and a half minutes left in the game and they were still huddling, slowly getting to the line, using just about all of the play clock and seemingly not looking to stop the clock. Looked like all they wanted was for the game to end so they could get outta there.

 

With Cleveland, the big key is definitely pressure on Mayfield. If he doesn't have time to throw, he's not very good. And if you keep up consistent pressure on him, he'll start to bail on clean pockets at the first sign of pressure, even if he has room to step up or sidestep, he just books it and tries to make a throw on the run. I know the Bills like to rush four most of the time but this might be the game for them to get creative with the pass rush and really dial up the pressure.

Edited November 7, 2019 by blacklabel

[D521646]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. I spent some time last night watching and re-watching the Browns and Broncos game from Sunday given that they are two of the Bills next three opponents. Here are some interesting pointers to areas where I think the Bills might want to pay special attention in those matchups.

 

Browns

Make Mayfield hold the football. Baker Mayfield has always been at his best in a rhythm passing offense. When he can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his first read he is a more decisive and accurate passer. If you can take his first read away or get early pressure that takes eyes away from looking down the field and makes them look at the rush then he holds the ball and it is when he holds the ball that bad things tend to happen. He makes poor decisions, takes bad sacks and when he does throw it his accuracy drops off. The Bills early in the season were getting good push early in the middle of the pocket and changing coverages just before the snap on defense. They had to simplify some of that last week in an effort to shore up the run defense but they will need to be able to both get pressure early and disguise their coverage to confuse Baker Mayfield and force errant throws.

 

Give them Jarvis Landry. I know he had 160 yards when they beat the Ravens but if you are making the Browns throw to Landry a lot then defensively you are doing your job. Don't be surprised if this looks like Jamieson Crowder week one where he ends up with 100 yards off 9 or 10 catches and during the game you think "man Landry is killing us" and then you look at the scoreboard and see the Browns have fewer than 20 points. The Broncos had a plan to not let OBJ beat them and while he had one of his typically athletic catches for 27 in a critical spot in the 4th Quarter that eventually led to the Landry TD for the most part they bottled him up well. I expect Tre White to see a lot of OBJ on Sunday.

 

Make Duke active. I was in favour of having Duke inactive last week based on a pretty lacklustre day against the Eagles and the matchup vs the Washington secondary. However, he should play this week. My knock on Denzel Ward coming out of college was whether he was really suited outside in the NFL against bigger, stronger, more physical receivers. Physicality was a knock on Greedy Williams last year too who while 6'2 has been questioned in respect of his willingness to mix it with big guys. Now Duke Williams is most decidedly not Courtland Sutton from a talent standpoint (more on him later) but he is that bigger more physical type that Ward in particular is struggling against. This to me is what Duke is - a game plan specific weapon. He suited the way you beat the Tennessee corners and he suits the way I think the Bills should attack the Browns corners too.

 

Use the aggressiveness of the Cleveland Dline against them. Myles Garrett is great but he is so aggressive and gets up the field so quickly that you can expose them with bubble screens to the outside and delayed hand offs. Equally the middle of that defensive line has not proven it can hold up against the run so it should be an easier assignment inside for the Bills blockers and backs than the past two weeks against Washington and Philadelphia's defensive interiors.

 

Broncos

Stop the inside zone. For as long as I have been watching football it feels like the Broncos offense has been built around the inside zone run. Take out a couple of years where they ran the Peyton Manning offense and it has been their identity basically since the Shanahan era. Hardly anyone has heard of Rich Scangarello their OC - in fact before I watched them play the Bears earlier in the season I hadn't. While watching that game I was struck by the fact that they were basically running the stretch zone and when I googled it the reason why became obvious. Scangarello's last two stops in the NFL were are as Offensive Quality Control coach in Atlanta under OC Kyle Shanahan and QB coach in San Francisco under, you guessed it, HC Kyle Shanahan. That "left inside zone" run that the Bills spent 2 and a half games getting gashed by? Well they better sell out to stop it against Denver because if not Philip Lindsay will make it a long day. The good news is I think they are pretty safe to sell out to stop the run because I am pretty confident that Brandon Allen will not be able to beat this Bills team throwing it. On paper 12/20 for 193 and a TD looks respectable for your NFL debut. On tape there were some ugly throws.

 

Pass on first down. Vic Fangio is one of the great NFL defensive minds. His defences have been top 5 units in 8 of the last 12 NFL seasons. But his defense is pretty traditional and is about playing the percentages and trying to force teams into third and long, obvious passing situations, and then teeing off. What I noticed was that other than one sack where they confused Mayfield and he held it and took a sack every other throw he attempted on first down in the first half was complete. I think he missed a couple in the 2nd half but at one stage he was 6/6 on first down passes. So I went back a week and looked at this. Jacoby Brissett was 8/9 on first down passes against the Broncs in week 8. It is a real thing. I know generally it is easier to complete passes on 1st down than third down right across the league but the differential against Fangio's defense really does appear stark. Pass on first down. If you are incomplete you can always try and run it on 2nd down to give you a more manageable third down but the way to expose this D is to pass on early downs.

 

Double Courtland Sutton. Watch out for this kid. He is one of the fastest ascending receiver talents in the NFL. I loved him in 2017 and was ready to give him a first round grade in the 2017 draft but he went back to school and I didn't quite love his 2018 tape as much and had him as a 1st/2nd borderline guy in 2018 just behind Calvin Ridley who was my WR1. I should have stuck with my 2017 evaluation. This kid is an absolute stud. I think he is better than the two receivers who went top 10 in 2017. There might be a tendency to say stick Tre White on him but his body type reminds me of the sort of WRs that have, on occasion, caused White problems in his short and excellent NFL career thus far - tall, rangy, and deceptively fast. Think Robby Anderson who has troubled him a couple of times and AJ Green who got him bad his rookie year. My approach would be sell out to stop Lindsay on the inside zone. Double Sutton and ask Allen to beat you with what is left. He won't.

 

 

Neither of these games is a gimme - both teams have some talent and have ways they can hurt you but they both have significant weaknesses too. These are games where coaching is really going to matter. If the Bills can really take away the things these teams do best and focus on exploiting their weaknesses they should be wins. But if the Bills are not prepared and let these teams do the things they do well then either could easily become the backbreaking loss that so far we have avoided this season.

 

 

 Great analysis, but I would add with regard to Baker, that he tends to roll right when he feels pressure, which limits his field vision.  I think McD knows this as well, and will force Baker out of the pocket to his right, and then shorten the defense to compensate.  I've watched all the Browns game this year, and if I'm the DC, I work this into my plan on passing downs with fake pressure to Bakers left, added with real pressure early to force that uneasy feeling, and then shorten the coverage over the top.  What you'll get is a bunch of throw aways, or depending on score, ill-advised throws down the sidelines.  Baker doesn't see the field, I would argue as well as Josh Allen does at this point in their careers, but both of them are gunslingers and risk takers, albeit, Josh is getting better at this, Baker, not so much.

 

I agree that Landry should be the one to waste less time on.  Put White on OBJ (Another note is the media has been reporting all week that OBJ is NOT happy with his touches) and have one of the safeties roll that way each snap, keep the other in the box on running downs.  Baker, with his immaturity at this point in his career is keenly aware that his star receivers are getting twitchy, and will want to force the ball to them.  I think McD exploits this on Sunday and our D comes to play, and Josh will keep being Josh, which, for the most part has be adequate.  That said, if the Bills are up big late, I'd like to see Daboll let Josh explore his inner Farve..

 

Go Bills!

 

Tim-

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Very fair question. The way they did it in the second half against Washington required them to play a lot more man than is usual (which reduces their ability to disguise coverages) and to two gap a little bit up front and have Ed Oliver on the field less (which reduces their ability to push the pocket from the interior). So it is a concern. I think I would be minded to play a little bit of two gap mixed in but largely to run my scheme and not over compensate for the run game. And then I need my guys to play better. Eventually you can't keep using scheme to protect Edmunds and Milano they have to identify and then hit their gaps better.

 

Eventually, you can't scheme around a gap in personnel, sure (I think the gap is more on the DL with Phillips out but yes, Edmunds and Milano make mistakes). 

But if it's a mistake they keep making right now, what are the options?  You either scheme to cover it, or give up the big plays. 

 

Anyway back to your analysis, I don't see the Bills as able to do what you suggest.  I think they either weaken their run D or go after Mayfield with pressure up the middle and disguised coverage.  I think there would be some sense in go after Mayfield early (run your scheme) and if you start giving up the big run plays then clamp down.

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Again - fair question. I debated this in the shout box earlier. It would probably be Foster for me but I could take an argument about going into the game with only two TEs. They are not as yet a huge part of Daboll's offense and I haven't seen on tape a huge difference between Smith's blocking over and above Knox and Kroft. I doubt the Bills go this way but Lee Smith would be my other candidate for scratching.

 

I have been thinking that myself.  I think Smith is a mixed blessing - he may be a better blocker, but he is also a penalty machine, and there might be value in scratching him and having all 3 of Foster, McKensie, and Williams available.

 

Foster has been playing very well on teams.

 

Was that the 3rd and 3 play to McKensie early in the 1Q a bubble screen?  I remember saying "whoa, pass to McKensie downfield!", but I don't remember it as a bubble screen.  Gotta go look.  But to your point, yes, we had some success with one of those jet sweeps to McKensie, but then the Redskins blew one or two up big-time down in the redzone.  It may be a case of "going to the well too often" if the Bills can't or won't use McKensie more in the regular passing game. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Eventually, you can't scheme around a gap in personnel, sure (I think the gap is more on the DL with Phillips out but yes, Edmunds and Milano make mistakes). 

But if it's a mistake they keep making right now, what are the options?  You either scheme to cover it, or give up the big plays. 

 

Anyway back to your analysis, I don't see the Bills as able to do what you suggest.  I think they either weaken their run D or go after Mayfield with pressure up the middle and disguised coverage.  I think there would be some sense in go after Mayfield early (run your scheme) and if you start giving up the big run plays then clamp down.

 

 

I have been thinking that myself.  I think Smith is a mixed blessing - he may be a better blocker, but he is also a penalty machine, and there might be value in scratching him and having all 3 of Foster, McKensie, and Williams available.

 

Foster has been playing very well on teams.

 

Was that the 3rd and 3 play to McKensie early in the 1Q a bubble screen?  I remember saying "whoa, pass to McKensie downfield!", but I don't remember it as a bubble screen.  Gotta go look.  But to your point, yes, we had some success with one of those jet sweeps to McKensie, but then the Redskins blew one or two up big-time down in the redzone.  It may be a case of "going to the well too often" if the Bills can't or won't use McKensie more in the regular passing game. 

 

No the screen to Singletary. Wasn't a bubble but was a screen. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

No the screen to Singletary. Wasn't a bubble but was a screen. 

 

OK.  Went back and looked.  1 of the guy's 3 receptions was a legit downfield pass.  Nice slant, good reception.

 

Damn straight if the Bills want to keep making those jet sweeps work with McKensie, we need to see more participation in the rest of the game, else his appearance on the field is a "sure tell"

[wppete]

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