Simple poll. Is Josh Allen improving as a passer?

[CSBill]

And in decision making.

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

The only thing nonsensical is you trying to explain to me that the Pats change their identity based on who they play. 

 

The pats identity is Tom Brady and the passing game. To say otherwise is nonsense.  That is their identity until he retires or goes to another team. 

Go back and watch last year's Pats game against us, where they ran the ball to win.  The Pats are the definition of a team that can evaluate the weakness of their opponent and exploit it.

 

Your position is clear.  You would rather see the team lose games so long as they throw the ball more.    That's really sad.

[wiley16350]

3 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

The only thing nonsensical is you trying to explain to me that the Pats change their identity based on who they play. 

 

The pats identity is Tom Brady and the passing game. To say otherwise is nonsense.  That is their identity until he retires or goes to another team. 

The Patriots do base their game plan on the opponent.  The difference is that the Patriots don't just see it as attacking with the run or pass.  The Patriots see it as attacking different areas of the field with the run or the pass based on opponent.  The Bills tend to attack the same way in each aspect and the only thing that changes is the ratio based on the opponent.  The Patriots are mostly a pass first offense because that is what works and is the easiest thing to do on early downs.  What changes is that the Patriots passing game will attack the weak part of the defense until the opponent stops it.  That means they'll run screen passes all day long if you can't stop it.  They'll attack downfield or the intermediate part of the field if a team doesn't have a pass rush or is weak at linebacker or in the secondary.  So for the most part they pass but they have had no problem pounding teams with the run if it works and the opponent is determined to take the pass away.  The problem with the Bills is that they try to be run first and force it and then get predictable at times.  The Patriots never force the run but will certainly fall to it when necessary or to catch teams off guard.  I would agree that the Patriots identity now is Brady and the passing game but it hasn't always been that way.  In 2001 they were balanced with a tough yards running game, mostly short passing game and produced chunk plays with trick plays.  In 2002 and 2003 they were a pass first team that was mostly about the short passing game and couldn't produce much outside of the short passes.  2002 was the worst year they have had with Brady.  They did better in 2003 because of defensive improvements but still relied too much on Brady because of a weak running game.  In 2004 -2006 they got Corey Dillion and were a well balanced team.  2007 is when they became the pass happy team that was all about Brady (8 years into his career).  The running game has had various levels of success and usage ever since.

Edited November 7, 2019 by wiley16350

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

400 to 39... 

 

0.0975 % of the respondents have BBFS   (Battered Buffalo Fan Syndrome)

 

[wiley16350]

I don't necessarily think Allen has improved as a passer in that I don't think his accuracy is really that different than before.  I have said before that I didn't think accuracy was an issue last year.  His improved completion % is mostly because of the improvement in talent around him and his decision making.  I do think he is improving at reading defenses and showing awareness of what the defense is doing.  Most of his interceptions were because he was forcing passes that he knew wasn't there, which is why he has been able to improve drastically the last few weeks in not throwing interceptions.  QB's that have a problem reading defenses don't improve that much, that quickly.  See Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston.   

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

How could you say he's not?

 

Fewer INTs, more TDs, fewer absolutely dumb throws, rising passer rating ....

 

Of course he's getting better. The real question is whether he's getting enough better.

I get why people voted yes with the thought that Allen is improving but still has a long way to go. However I voted no because I see much of his “improvement“ due to Daboll’s scheming/play calling to limit the more difficult throws. More screens, more shovel passes, more hooks and slants over the middle.  I’d note also that I rewatched the Washington game and we had some really nice receptions on balls that were not well thrown.

 

Advanced metrics try to control for drops, route depth, quality of defenses, etc., etc.   Those metrics that I have been looking at - QBR, DYAR & DVOA - show a QB that’s about the same in 2019 as he was in 2018.  And it’s not a flattering picture.  I look at every throw and ask myself what kind of QB (elite, good, serviceable, back up) makes that throw.  I expect every QB to be able to complete a shovel or screen.  A 5 yard out or 8 yard hook over the middle is a step up from that, etc.  I look at placement, difficulty of throw, etc.  Does he lead his receiver into a hit or protect him?  When I do that with Allen I see the QB the advanced metrics say he is.  And I waited 8 games and formed my opinion before I looked at those stats.

 

I also wanted to be sure before I got blasted on here.  I also wanted to give Allen a chance to improve this season.  I really wish I wasn’t peeing in everyone’s Cheerios, but I think the main differences between this season and last are what I mentioned before - Daboll dialing in the offense to protect Allen - and that we’re winning games.  I think that Allen’s play is a big reason there’s limited enthusiasm for our success. (The other is the  continued existence of the Cheatriots.)  

I’ve looked for reasons for optimism.  One is that some of his bad throws that are behind his receivers are just a split second late, but to the correct spot. I saw that a couple of time last Sunday.  He hit the window, but it was behind the receiver.  With experience I think he can process faster and time those throws better.  His footwork seems better in that he’s setting his feet properly unless he is scrambling (when it isn’t necessarily expected).  That was a huge problem last year on short throws to his right, but it isn’t this year.  I see our receiving corps making some great adjustments to throws and that’s helping the team immensely.  They’ve covered up a lot and if they continue to do that then we are in much better shape.  Lastly, Allen is still young and pretty raw.  I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to dial in his howitzer and be as accurate as we need him to be, but he does have the athleticism to help us with his legs while we find out.  Here is a link to those stats.  Flame away. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Sure.   What is the identity of this offense?   Does anyone really know?   Are we a running team?  Are we a passing team?  

 

McDermott made an interesting comment this week.  He was questioned about game planning and what the identity of the team is.   His response was, its a week to week thing depending on the team we face.   So that tells me we really don't have an identity on offense.  We are letting the defense of the opponent dictate how we want to operate, not the other way around. 

 

As far as letting Josh sling it, look at the game logs.  The first 5 weeks of the season he was playing "hero ball."  He was averaging 33 pass attempts per game over that stretch. In that window came 7 ints. 

 

Move on to the last 3 weeks. He's averaging 26 attempts per game and no ints. (and if it weren't for a comeback attempt against philly, this number would be drastically lower.)

 

In the first couple of weeks he was letting it rip.   It seemed like they were going to really let rip it this year and sink or swim.  They surrounded him with Wrs, linemen, TEs and two new running backs.  All signs pointed to a legit passing attack. 

 

Then, because of those turnovers the offense began to really crawl in a shell.  It's like they put him on a leash to protect him.  IMO its because we were winning and they know you cant sustain wins with that amount of turnovers. 

 

So what initially looked like a legit attempt at a passing offense this year out of the gate, has morphed into a protectionism offense that really has no identity. 

 

I like winning, but have said it here before, I'd rather see a loss with growth (from Allen) then sqeaking by with a win with little to no growth. (against bad teams) 

 

His college stats are not really impressive and he's a huge project.  They need to stop holding his hand, prepare him, coach him and let him play.  If I have to watch this kind football for the next 4 years, Ill vomit repeatedly. 

 

Let him sink or swim. 

Stop. Game planning to attack a defense's weaknesses does not mean we are being dictated to.  If that is really a model you oppose, than that necessarily means you oppose the Bill Bilicheck model.  This is just silly. 

[wiley16350]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I get why people voted yes with the thought that Allen is improving but still has a long way to go. However I voted no because I see much of his “improvement“ due to Daboll’s scheming/play calling to limit the more difficult throws. More screens, more shovel passes, more hooks and slants over the middle.  I’d note also that I rewatched the Washington game and we had some really nice receptions on balls that were not well thrown.

 

Advanced metrics try to control for drops, route depth, quality of defenses, etc., etc.   Those metrics that I have been looking at - QBR, DYAR & DVOA - show a QB that’s about the same in 2019 as he was in 2018.  And it’s not a flattering picture.  I look at every throw and ask myself what kind of QB (elite, good, serviceable, back up) makes that throw.  I expect every QB to be able to complete a shovel or screen.  A 5 yard out or 8 yard hook over the middle is a step up from that, etc.  I look at placement, difficulty of throw, etc.  Does he lead his receiver into a hit or protect him?  When I do that with Allen I see the QB the advanced metrics say he is.  And I waited 8 games and formed my opinion before I looked at those stats.

 

I also wanted to be sure before I got blasted on here.  I also wanted to give Allen a chance to improve this season.  I really wish I wasn’t peeing in everyone’s Cheerios, but I think the main differences between this season and last are what I mentioned before - Daboll dialing in the offense to protect Allen - and that we’re winning games.  I think that Allen’s play is a big reason there’s limited enthusiasm for our success. (The other is the  continued existence of the Cheatriots.)  

I’ve looked for reasons for optimism.  One is that some of his bad throws that are behind his receivers are just a split second late, but to the correct spot. I saw that a couple of time last Sunday.  He hit the window, but it was behind the receiver.  With experience I think he can process faster and time those throws better.  His footwork seems better in that he’s setting his feet properly unless he is scrambling (when it isn’t necessarily expected).  That was a huge problem last year on short throws to his right, but it isn’t this year.  I see our receiving corps making some great adjustments to throws and that’s helping the team immensely.  They’ve covered up a lot and if they continue to do that then we are in much better shape.  Lastly, Allen is still young and pretty raw.  I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to dial in his howitzer and be as accurate as we need him to be, but he does have the athleticism to help us with his legs while we find out.  Here is a link to those stats.  Flame away. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

What are you basing the Daboll Scheming throws on?  Seems like this weeks game because the Bills haven't really thrown that many screen passes or slants.  They did this week but they haven't been staples of the offense all year.  Shovel passes have been 1-2 each week but the other ones haven't been that prevalent.  The one pass that was seemingly behind McKenzie was actually perfect because of where the linebacker was.  He would have led him into a hit if it wasn't behind him.  Go watch some Cover-1 episodes on youtube and you'll see that Allen is being asked to make big boy reads and they aren't scheming plays to make things easier.  Hell, if calling screen passes and slants is what coordinators do to help a QB that can't read defenses then the Patriots are very afraid to let Tom Brady make full field reads.

[Billsflyer12]

2016/2017 Wyoming                             2018/2019 Bills

25 Games.                                                20 Games

361/643   56.2%.                                     317/563.   56.3%

5015 yds.                                                  3727 yds

Yds/Game.  200 yds                               Yds/Game.   186 yds

Yds/Attempt    7.7.                                  Yds/Attempt.   6.6 

Yds/Completion    13.8.                          Yds/Completion.   11.75

44 TDs.                                                      20 TDs

21 Int.                                                         19 Int

[Nihilarian]

This last game was a perfect example on how to develop a young, inexperienced QB by running more and passing less, 20 pass attempts vs 39 rush attempts.

 

Some Bills fans don't like it and say its Jauron ball. Too bad, as this is how you develop a QB into an elite passer. Don't force that QB to carry the offense and instead allow him to help win the game!

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

2016/2017 Wyoming                             2018/2019 Bills

25 Games.                                                20 Games

361/643   56.2%.                                     317/563.   56.3%

5015 yds.                                                  3727 yds

Yds/Game.  200 yds                               Yds/Game.   186 yds

Yds/Attempt    7.7.                                  Yds/Attempt.   6.6 

Yds/Completion    13.8.                          Yds/Completion.   11.75

44 TDs.                                                      20 TDs

21 Int.                                                         19 Int

And?

[wiley16350]

6 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

2016/2017 Wyoming                             2018/2019 Bills

25 Games.                                                20 Games

361/643   56.2%.                                     317/563.   56.3%

5015 yds.                                                  3727 yds

Yds/Game.  200 yds                               Yds/Game.   186 yds

Yds/Attempt    7.7.                                  Yds/Attempt.   6.6 

Yds/Completion    13.8.                          Yds/Completion.   11.75

44 TDs.                                                      20 TDs

21 Int.                                                         19 Int

There is so much context lost on just showing stats but we both can play this stupid little game.

 

2018 Bills                                                        2019 Bills
11 Games                                                        8 Games
169/320  52.8%                                            148/243  60.9%

2,074 Yards  6.5 avg                                   1,653 Yards  6.8 avg
10 TD  3.1%                                                      10 TD 4.1%
12 INT 3.8%                                                     7 INT  2.9%

67.9 Rating                                                      82.9 Rating

 

Every number has improved from 2018

[Billsflyer12]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

This last game was a perfect example on how to develop a young, inexperienced QB by running more and passing less, 20 pass attempts vs 39 rush attempts.

 

Some Bills fans don't like it and say its Jauron ball. Too bad, as this is how you develop a QB into an elite passer. Don't force that QB to carry the offense and instead allow him to help win the game!

You mean like 2 other QBs we could have had?

 

Watson - 32 games, 683/1011 67.6 %.   63 TD/22 INT   8296 yds.  259 yds/game

 

Mahomes - 24 games, 562/856. 65.7%.   65 TD/14 INT.  7561 yds.  315 yds/game

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And?

Question was “Is Josh Allen improving as a passer”. Correct?

 

I just posted ALL of his stats from college and pros side by side.  I guess anyone can slice specific games or specific few games.  I just showed them all.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Billsflyer12

[Billsflyer12]

9 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

There is so much context lost on just showing stats but we both can play this stupid little game.

 

2018 Bills                                                        2019 Bills
11 Games                                                        8 Games
169/320  52.8%                                            148/243  60.9%

2,074 Yards  6.5 avg                                   1,653 Yards  6.8 avg
10 TD  3.1%                                                      10 TD 4.1%
12 INT 3.8%                                                     7 INT  2.9%

67.9 Rating                                                      82.9 Rating

 

Every number has improved from 2018

And yet he is basically the same QB we was in college after 20 games.  Time will tell if he improves on that, history largely shows he won’t.  I hope he does.  I hated the pick, especially giving up 2 2nd picks to get him, but am really hoping he and Bills are super successful.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Billsflyer12

[oldmanfan]

38 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

You mean like 2 other QBs we could have had?

 

Watson - 32 games, 683/1011 67.6 %.   63 TD/22 INT   8296 yds.  259 yds/game

 

Mahomes - 24 games, 562/856. 65.7%.   65 TD/14 INT.  7561 yds.  315 yds/game

Question was “Is Josh Allen improving as a passer”. Correct?

 

I just posted ALL of his stats from college and pros side by side.  I guess anyone can slice specific games or specific few games.  I just showed them all.

And you don't understand there is a difference between playing in college vs. the pros?  You honestly don't get that? 

[K-9]

We could have had Watson and Mahomes?! Who knew?!

[wiley16350]

42 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

And yet he is basically the same QB we was in college after 20 games.  Time will tell if he improves on that, history largely shows he won’t.  I hope he does.  I hated the pick, especially giving up 2 2nd picks to get him, but am really hoping he and Bills are super successful.

His 2019 stats show that he has improved but you meld them with his 2018 stats so that no improvement is shown.  That is the problem with stats as you can construct them and contort them to fit an argument.  I didn't watch a lot of Allen at Wyoming and what I did see was a team that wasn't really that talented and not necessarily a QB that wasn't good enough.  I can back that argument up with the fact that Wyoming has only made it to a bowl game twice since 2012.  Do you want to guess who the QB was both years that they did get to a bowl game?  It was Josh Allen, in case you didn't want to guess.  Craig Bohl had 2 losing seasons before Allen and 1 .500 season after Allen.  How good is he without Allen?  The stats say not very good but it is possible that the team was building the first 2 years and then were ready to compete when Allen arrived and then they lost too much talent when Allen left and they had a down year but are doing well this year.  Allen started for a bad team in his rookie season and now that the talent is improved around him, he is playing better.  Despite what you say, he has improved and he will continue to improve if the team around him continues to improve too.  I initially called the Bills dumb for trading up to get Allen, I thought they could get him or Rosen at their original spot.  I preferred Rosen but that was all based on what the media was saying and not on what I had seen because I didn't watch much of either QB in college.  unlike other people though, I was o.k. with the Allen pick pretty soon after because he definitely seemed more suited to the Bills than Rosen was from the things that I was hearing about their personalities and how they responded to be drafted where they were drafted.  The more I watch Allen, especially the all-22 video, the more I like his potential and his ability to improve.  He is a better QB on the all-22 than he is on TV.  I have said it here before, he is the opposite to Tyrod Taylor in that respect.  Taylor looks better on TV than on the all-22.  So I don't care how much better his stats are, Taylor wasn't really better.  Taylor's best season was 2015 and people just don't realize how good that team was because he made them worse than they actually were.  Here are the skill players he had that season: LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris hogan, Marquise Goodwin and Charles Clay.  People loved to complain about the receivers back then but go and look to see what kind of success each of those players have had without Tyrod throwing them the ball.  That was a great running team too.  They also had 3 pro-bowl offensive lineman.  It should have been a playoff team but the passing game wasn't good enough to overcome a defense that ranked 15th in points.

Edited November 7, 2019 by wiley16350

[dollars 2 donuts]

23 hours ago, teef said:

of course he has.  there's still a lot of improvement needed, but we have seen measurable growth.

 

i think he can continue to get better.

 

 

The thing is also, teef, when he goes on the run he throws some beautiful balls, too.  Yes some duds, but man I love watching the replays of some of these throws he's making (completed or not) when he giddy-ups*.

 

 

*Intentional Western or "Buffalo Bill" reference.

[dakrider]

Darnold and Mayfield both have had some success but both their teams have been getting clobbered out there.  Bills have definitely kept the reins in on Allen primarily because imo, they're actively working towards getting into the playoffs and they want to bring Allen along with a more controlled passing game.  It makes sense to slowly open up the passing game than it is to be reckless on offense and have your QB throw multiple picks each game.  Bills have the luxury of not having to force Allen to throw 40+ times a game.  

[whatdrought]

2 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

You mean like 2 other QBs we could have had?

 

Watson - 32 games, 683/1011 67.6 %.   63 TD/22 INT   8296 yds.  259 yds/game

 

Mahomes - 24 games, 562/856. 65.7%.   65 TD/14 INT.  7561 yds.  315 yds/game

Question was “Is Josh Allen improving as a passer”. Correct?

 

I just posted ALL of his stats from college and pros side by side.  I guess anyone can slice specific games or specific few games.  I just showed them all.

 

Lol 

 

Mountain West Conference = NFL in this guys brain.