eball Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Chill said: I’d prefer just to win 12 games, win the division. This, completely. The Pats*** have a brutal run coming up and if they lose just one or two our game at Foxboro in W16 would be for the division if Buffalo can get there with only one more loss. Can the Bills go 5-1 @CLE, DEN, @MIA, @DAL, BAL, @PIT? That puts them at 11-3 and playing their biggest game in two decades. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, eball said: This, completely. The Pats*** have a brutal run coming up and if they lose just one or two our game at Foxboro in W16 would be for the division if Buffalo can get there with only one more loss. Can the Bills go 5-1 @CLE, DEN, @MIA, @DAL, BAL, @PIT? That puts them at 11-3 and playing their biggest game in two decades. sure, why not? well, there are lots of reasons why not, but hey this is a fan board. trust the process. good progress this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said: sure, why not? well, there are lots of reasons why not, but hey this is a fan board. trust the process. good progress this year. Yup, why not? Of course, the more likely scenario is 10-6 and a wild card, but playing around with that playoff machine they even have a good shot at 9-7 -- not that we want to see that. A playoff appearance this season, with Allen progressing nicely and boatloads of draft picks and cash, should make most fans happy. 2020 is the year to claim dominance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Bills are a lock if they finish 5-3 or better, virtual lock at 4-4, and will need help at 3-5. This makes logical sense. They don't deserve playoffs if they can't win 4 with the remaining schedule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxbomber21 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Buffalo finds its run defense & Allen finds his long ball with no turnovers. The Bills win out and take the division and home field. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 (edited) 49 minutes ago, eball said: Yup, why not? Of course, the more likely scenario is 10-6 and a wild card, but playing around with that playoff machine they even have a good shot at 9-7 -- not that we want to see that. A playoff appearance this season, with Allen progressing nicely and boatloads of draft picks and cash, should make most fans happy. 2020 is the year to claim dominance. You can't predict strength of schedule but based on this year's teams, plus 4 western road trips, we are going to pay for a weak 2019 with a brutal 2020. Edited November 5, 2019 by PromoTheRobot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Win the next three & we could pretty much relax until January. It would take an epic failure to not make the playoffs after being 9-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 According to this, if the Bills only beat Miami Jets and Denver, their chances of making the playoffs are 61%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanThru-N-Thru Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 The only thing that scares me is that if you truly are non-biased and project for all the AFC teams the Bills would lose out on a tie break from making the playoffs even at 10-6 to the Raiders (10-6) and Colts (10-6). Hoping we can at least make it to 11-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Casey D said: According to this, if the Bills only beat Miami Jets and Denver, their chances of making the playoffs are 61%. Did you pick all the games or just the Bills? I think it goes down if you pick the other games as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: Did you pick all the games or just the Bills? I think it goes down if you pick the other games as well. Picked them all so the Bills would be 9-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Casey D said: Picked them all so the Bills would be 9-7. I see. Welp, lets hope thats accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 (edited) I think we tend to overestimate other teams, which explains the high percentage. If you play with it, the Browns game is not must win, but rather a win and the odds of the Bills not making the playoffs are very small, like 19%. In other words, a really nice game to win. Of course, you have to trust the simulations it runs. 24 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said: The only thing that scares me is that if you truly are non-biased and project for all the AFC teams the Bills would lose out on a tie break from making the playoffs even at 10-6 to the Raiders (10-6) and Colts (10-6). Hoping we can at least make it to 11-5 The chances of so many 10-6 teams are remote. This time of year it seems there will be a bunch of them, but it rarely happens. It does happen, however. The Pats were 11-5 with Cassell one year and did not make the playoffs. At 10-6, I'd say your chances are about 95% Edited November 5, 2019 by Casey D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: You can't predict strength of schedule but based on this year's teams, plus 4 western road trips, we are going to pay for a weak 2019 with a brutal 2020. I don't care about SOS, I'm talking about the quality of the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 9 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: That makes perfect sense. A split in the next two seems likely. I personally hate this Cleveland game. Wins at home vs. Denver and the Jets appear very likely. It's quite possible the Bills lose to the Cowboys, Ravens, and at NE. That scenario would make at Pitt the difference between 9 and 10 wins. It would be great if they surprise and win some games they "shouldn't" win, but that's easier said than done. I would say this Cleveland game and AT Pitt are 1A and 1B in terms of critical matchups. IF, IF, IF they beat Cleveland, alot of things change in our favor. Agreed. Beat Cleveland and we are all but in with 7 wins and Denver and Miami to come next. 27 minutes ago, Casey D said: The chances of so many 10-6 teams are remote. This time of year it seems there will be a bunch of them, but it rarely happens. It does happen, however. The Pats were 11-5 with Cassell one year and did not make the playoffs. At 10-6, I'd say your chances are about 95% 10-6 makes it. No question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 (edited) It all looks super promising until you start plugging in results for the other likely wild card contenders. With the Bills losing to Cleveland, Dallas, and Baltimore, while beating Miami and Denver, I have Buffalo at a 50% chance with 3 games to go. And assuming we beat the Jets and lose to the Steelers, we're left with a 91% chance if we beat Pittsburgh or a 35% chance if we lose. If god forbid they drop that Denver game (which I'm decently nervous about), it's basically over. at that point. Edit: Picking some more of the Week 15-17 games for AFC opponents, the chances end up at 63% if we beat Pittsburgh and 31% if we lose. Edited November 5, 2019 by DCOrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: What could possibly go wrong??♂️ TJ Watt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I actually think our chances at the division are better than I thought a few days ago. The Pats* have the Eagles and Cowboys left as well as KC and Texans. If two of them take out the Pats then I think that game in Dec will be for the AFC east crown and most likely a bye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticaclub Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Gordio said: Win the next three & we could pretty much relax until January. It would take an epic failure to not make the playoffs after being 9-2. A very predictable failure at that. I think we lose to Dallas, Balt, Pitt & NE, needing to beat the Jets to win and get in coming off 4 straight losses & then payback for 2015 happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Picking only the games I'm pretty much entirely certain about (ex: any game against the Jets, Bengals, and Dolphins), I come away with a 61% chance of making the playoffs with the Broncos and Steelers games being the two left. Splitting those games results in roughly a 60% chance. Win both and we're in. Lose both and we're almost certainly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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