The Extra Point - Week 9: Are the Bills 6-2 or 2-6?

[Logic]

I've decided to start doing a post-game writeup each week on Monday morning. If you think I'm a dope, just click away now. Or bash me in the replies, that's fine, too. For anyone who cares to stick around, the idea is that I'll write a six-pick of thoughts from the previous day's Bills game, followed by an extra point, which will be an over-arching wrap-up or main point of discussion that's on my mind. I've never been known for my brevity. Consider yourself warned. Here goes.

The Extra Point - Week 9

 

1.) The Bills pretty much are what they are at this point: They have a below average offense that struggles with consistency, is great in the red zone but doesn't get there often enough, is prone to long stretches of putrid play, but somehow turns it on more often than not in the 4th quarter when needed. They have an above average defense that is prone to getting gashed in the ground game and can be beaten by smart, savvy veteran QBs at times, but otherwise usually keeps them in games. Their special teams is..well..it's just there. It doesn't really cost them many games, but it doesn't win them any games, either. It seems like a likely bet that the Bills will make the playoffs. They might even win a playoff game. But while they may grow and progress a LITTLE BIT this season, they pretty much are what they are -- for THIS season, anyway. Anyone waiting for a huge evolution or shift in style/effectiveness at this point might want to just accept the 2019 Bills for what they are. Yesterday's game looked a lot like all the previous games: Some great drives where it looks like the offense can't be stopped, some long stretches of putrid play, letting an inferior team hang around for too long, and eventually re-gaining effectiveness just long enough to put the game away at the end. Deja vu all over again.

 

2.) In the "be careful what you wish for" department: Every Bills fan and football analyst coming into the season knew that Josh Allen needed to learn to take care of the football, make routine throws, and keep his offense on schedule. Wouldn't you know it? That's EXACTLY what he's doing right now. He's gone 13 quarters without an interception, he throws effectively in the short area . of the field, he has generally cleaned up his inaccuracy and poor mechanics -- save for his fumble-itis and occasional mechanical lapse, he's become an effective game manager. A look at this QB rating yesterday reveals a quality day from Allen. Indeed, he wasn't asked to do much, but what he WAS asked to do, he did pretty well. That leads to the big philosophical question, though: Have the Bills coaches taken the Josh Allen out of Josh Allen? He was drafted 7th overall because he's a competitive, dynamic, improvisational, playmaking gunslinger. The question becomes, can the Bills coaches effectively turn Allen into a game manager with whom the team can win games NOW without sacrificing for the long term what made Allen so exciting/promising to begin with? Past Hall of Fame QBs like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have taken the route of being game managers early on in their careers and leaning on defense and a running game, only to turn into game-dominators later on in their careers. Is that the path the Bills want to take with Allen? Is that the best path to take? It seemed until just yesterday that Buffalo wanted Allen to throw at all costs, even when it seemed more advisable to run (see Eagles game, week 8). Things changed yesterday. Will that change stick? Allen's road of development seems to have hit an unexpected turn. Where will he end up, and are the coaches doing the right thing? I don't have the answer, but it sure is a fascinating question.

3.) In the "this dude's got it" department: Devin Singletary looks special. He just does. Not like "oh, he can start in this league for a few years". I'm talking like SPECIAL. Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, and LeSean McCoy -- all men with reasonable cases for the Hall of Fame -- have all commented on how natural and how special he looks. We all saw it with our own eyes yesterday. There were NUMEROUS plays where it looked like he'd be stopped for a loss or no gain, or where he'd be met head-on in the hole, only to put the opposing defender through a spin cycle and leave him on the turf, grasping at air. That's Shady McCoy type stuff. That's BARRY SANDERS type stuff. I know, I know, I need to slow the hype train. I'm telling you, though, Devin Singletary looks like a great -- not just good, but GREAT -- player.

4.) Speaking of how great Singletary was yesterday and how refreshing and welcome it was to see him finally get so many touches...a quick reminder: There is only one football, and there are only so many targets to go around offensively. For weeks, we all wanted to see #26 get the ball early and often. Yesterday, he finally did. BUT....by featuring the running game and by giving Singletary so many touches, there were necessarily less targets available for guys like Beasley, Knox, Brown, and McKenzie. I saw two different comments on Twitter yesterday about players that didn't get enough looks: One about Beasley, one about Brown. It may be true that both of those players DO need lots of targets on a weekly basis, but again, there's only so many targets to go around. Me? I'd say a day in which your lead running back has 140 yards and a score, Beasley catches a touchdown, and Brown collects another 75 yards (including a game-sealing 3rd and 18 catch) counts as a good distribution/usage of targets. There's only one football.

5.) It's amazing that the Bills are able to do what they're doing defensively this season without a legitimate, high quality edge rushing presence. Hughes is fine, but has only 1.5 sacks on the season. I like Trent Murphy, but he doesn't exactly strike fear into the opposition. When your leading sacker is Jordan Phillips, it means you need more pass rushing talent. To have such a good defense in spite of this is a testament to quality coaching and talented players on the back end and at linebacker. But make no mistake, the Bills need to invest top dollar and/or high draft picks into the defensive end position this offseason. For those clamoring for the offense to be top priority this offseason: Don't be surprised to see yet ANOTHER 1st round pick used on defense. For as good as the Bills defense (usually) looks this season, just imagine how it could look with some truly frightening edge rushers. 

6.) Tre Day with another big play in the 4th quarter. People often throw around the term "playmaker" in football. But what does it mean? Well, clearly, it should mean a player who makes a play when it matters most, when the game is on the line, and who can singlehandedly change the outcome of said game. Tre'Davious White is a playmaker. He has singlehandedly won the Bills several games throughout his career, beginning in his rookie season and continuing into this year, where he saved us in the Miami game. And yesterday's effort? It may not have been an interception or forced fumble, but it was a VERY timely sack at a point in the game where the Redskins only needed a touchdown and 2-point conversion to even up the score. Big Play Tre. Playmaker.

 

The Extra Point:

Somewhere along the line during the past 20 years of losing football, a lot of Bills fans forgot how to behave when the team actually wins. If you went on social media yesterday during or after the Bills game, you'd have had a hard time deciding whether the Bills were 6-2 or 2-6. The amount of venom, negativity, overreaction, hyperbole, and downright ANGER were astonishing. I saw calls to "Fire Daboll!", "Bench Allen!", "Strip Frazier of playcalling duties!"...I mean...WHAT?! To be honest, the over-the-top reactionary lunacy and suffocating negativity are both confounding and embarrassing. When did so much of Bills Mafia become so insufferable and unreasonable? Now, to be clear: It is absolutely ok and fully legitimate to point out areas of improvement after a game or to discuss things that disappointed you. It is ok to say that the offense isn't where it needs to be, that the playcalling needs to improve, that the QB needs to improve, etc...But there is a right way and a wrong way to go about this. The WRONG WAY is to fall into the trap of extremes. Just because the playcalling needs to be better doesn't mean we should fire Brian Daboll. Just because the QB needs to improve doesn't mean he's a bust. Just because the Bills are taking advantage of an easy schedule doesn't mean they're fully illegitimate Paper Tigers. Recognizing that the team has much room for improvement is possible WHILE ALSO enjoying the fact that they're winning football games. It isn't an either/or proposition! 

What people's reactions to this Bills team really come down to are their expectations. Me? I do not expect this team to be elite week in and week out. People seem to forget that they are in year three of a complete teardown and rebuild. And it's important to keep perspective in mind when considering where they are as a team: In year one, the teardown year, they made the playoffs. In year two, they had a losing record, but acquired the two most key pieces of the team: The quarterbacks of the offense and defense. In year three, they're on pace to probably make the playoffs, but they're lacking on offense and, at times, on defense, too. But here's the thing: the year three Bills are NOT a finished product. No one at One Bills Drive said "we're going to completely turn over the roster in three seasons, with only two players remaining, and by year three, it's Super Bowl or bust!". I realize that some fans may WANT that to be the case, but it's simply not. Beane and McDermott said time and time again that they want to build this team for long term, sustained success. Sometimes that means having mid-season growing pains. Sometimes it means not trading for an Emmanuel Sanders or signing a Josh Gordon. But their goal -- and it's beyond obvious that they do HAVE a clear goal towards which they are logically and methodically working -- is a team that can compete every single year.

This year? They're ahead of schedule. They are 6-2. SIX AND TWO! Think of where you were in your life the last time the Bills were 6-2 through eight games, in the year 1993. Think about that! 26 seasons come and gone from then until now. Think of all the Dick Jaurons, Mike Mularkeys, Chan Gaileys, Jon DiGiorgios, Kelly Holcombs, Shaud Williamses, and Ko Simpsons that have rolled through Buffalo in those years. Think of all the long, cold drives home from Orchard Park you've made after another losing effort, despondent in the knowledge that the Bills were having another losing season, that there was no hope on the horizon. Think of all the wasted seasons. And now? 6-2, with what looks like a really bright future and a bright front office and coaching staff and possible franchise QB....and a lot of Bills fans can't or won't enjoy it. A real shame. Life is short, and of all things, following sports is supposed to be FUN! If you can't have fun while your favorite team is 6-2, then when CAN you have fun? Bills fans: It's okay to want improvement. It's okay to want a Lombardi trophy. But for your own health and happiness, and for the sake of the rest of us who just want to enjoy this winning season: Learn to enjoy the ride! Learn to want better for your team AND be happy that they're winning games. And if you can't do that, at least try not spewing your venomous negativity on the rest of us. After all, it could be ANOTHER 26 years before we see 6-2 again!

Edited November 4, 2019 by Logic

[Stank_Nasty]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

This year? They're ahead of schedule. They are 6-2. SIX AND TWO! Think of where you were in your life the last time the Bills were 6-2 through eight games, in the year 1993. Think about that! 26 seasons come and gone from then until now. Think of all the Dick Jaurons, Mike Mularkeys, Chan Gaileys, Jon DiGiorgios, Kelly Holcombs, Shaud Williamses, and Ko Simpsons that have rolled through Buffalo in those years. Think of all the long, cold drives home from Orchard Park you've made after another losing effort, despondent in the knowledge that the Bills were having another losing season, that there was no hope on the horizon. Think of all the wasted seasons. And now? 6-2, with what looks like a really bright future and a bright front office and coaching staff and possible franchise QB....and a lot of Bills fans can't or won't enjoy it. A real shame. Life is short, and of all things, following sports is supposed to be FUN! If you can't have fun while your favorite team is 6-2, then when CAN you have fun? Bills fans: It's okay to want improvement. It's okay to want a Lombardi trophy. But for your own health and happiness, and for the sake of the rest of us who just want to enjoy this winning season: Learn to enjoy the ride! Learn to want better for your team AND be happy that they're winning games. And if you can't do that, at least try not spewing your venomous negativity on the rest of us. After all, it could be ANOTHER 26 years before we see 6-2 again!

Man.... this whole paragraph is IT right here!

 

and the bolded. hell ya dude.... for some reason there are quite a few on this board that just cant enjoy the ride and the minute you start enjoying the season they categorize you as a "homer" or somebody thats ok with mediocrity and doesn't hope for more from the team in the future. its pathetic and sad.

[billsfan89]

Pretty accurate assessment, really appreciate the effort you put into this. Right now this team just has to take care of the teams that they should be able to beat. They need to win 2 out of the next 3 to push them to 8-3. They play a tough stretch of games At Cowboys, At NE, Ravens, At Pitt where they could easily go 1-3. But if they stand at 8-3 a 1-3 stretch puts them at 9-6 heading into a home game against the Jets. I think 9 wins might get you the 6th seed but certainly 10 wins punches a ticket. Overall just keep winning these games against softer opponents and you will be fine. 

 

Also as a fact check Jerry Hughes has 2.5 sacks this season. 

[BillsfanAZ]

I didnt think the Bills would contend for the division or be a playoff contender for another year or so. The Bills are beating the teams that they should beat right now even with a below average offense. The Bills still can contend for the division but it unlikely this season but stranger things have happened. Fans are looking for the Bills to pound bad teams and I am not sure they have the firepower to do it this season. As the season progresses the offense can get a little better so we will see. I like that Beane and McDermott have a vision. Even though I want the Bills to be a dominant team, I can wait another season to see what this team can be. 

[Nextmanup]

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Nextmanup

[IDBillzFan]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

 

People who look at 6-2 and spend their post-game thoughts looking for disappointment will surely get it.

 

Misery is a true indicator of quality of life.

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

Thanks for the reply.

I would counter that folks who completely disregard the record because the wins haven't happened in just the perfect way or against better opponents are ALREADY wallowing in disappointment and misery. I'd rather fly head-on into Disappointment Alley than sit on the runway, arms crossed and refusing to let the "Season enjoyment" plane even take off. But that's me. To each their own.

[YattaOkasan]

Agree on the negativity.  Almost had my soon to be brother in law taking swings at me because I threw some facts at his narrative that Josh Allen is the worst QB and shouldn't be in the NFL.  Allen is average right now, which based on last year, pre draft expectations, and what he needed to work on, is great.

Edited November 4, 2019 by YattaOkasan

[Prickly Pete]

I have to take issue with the "they are what they are" part. I have some hope at least, that working Devin Singletary into a bigger role could be a big boost to the offense.

 

I could be wrong, of course. But having a dynamic player like him (he is basically the only weapon in Allen's arsenal that is at all exceptional) can transform an offense, and make everyone around him look a little better.

 

I think the offense is still developing, not "this is what they are".

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by 32ABBA

[DC Grid]

Couldn't agree more.  Good teams win ugly a lot in the NFL.  The Bills may or may not be a good team yet, but this is a generally young / rebuilt team and a young coach that may have a Bills team that didn't sniff the playoffs for 18 years headed back into the playoffs for the second time in three years.  Sure I'd love to see them beating the Pats and Eagles, but I don't think a single honest fan could say they would have expected to be anything but ecstatic if you told them in August that 8 games in the team would be 6-2.   

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

 

Old faithful.

 

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

I have to take issue with the "they are what they are" part. I have some hope at least, that working Devin Singletary into a bigger role could be a big boost to the offense.

 

I could be wrong, of course. But having a dynamic player like him (he is basically the only weapon in Allen's arsenal that is at all exceptional) can transform an offense, and make everyone around him look a little better.

 

You may be right. 

I ALSO have hope that Singletary's involvement and continued maturation from Allen lead to an offensive boost.

Generally, though, I don't expect the boost to be dramatic. I don't expect it to completely change who and what the Bills are. They won't become an offensive powerhouse, no matter WHAT they do with Singletary. They don't have the horses needed in the receiving room just yet, and their quarterback doesn't yet know how to fully take advantage of the weapons that ARE in house. That's just my opinion, of course. I could be dead wrong. 

Overall, I just get the feeling that "defense-first team with a young, mistake-prone offense; Will win games against lesser opponents and struggle against quality teams" is what the Bills are right now. And that's okay. Just getting to the point of "beating the teams you should" is an accomplishment. There have been many, MANY teams in the past 20 years that couldn't even beat the teams they "should" beat. At least these Bills are doing that. That alone, in some years, as we are seeing, can be enough to make the playoffs. And once you're there? All bets are off. Anything can happen.

[billsfan89]

29 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I didnt think the Bills would contend for the division or be a playoff contender for another year or so. The Bills are beating the teams that they should beat right now even with a below average offense. The Bills still can contend for the division but it unlikely this season but stranger things have happened. Fans are looking for the Bills to pound bad teams and I am not sure they have the firepower to do it this season. As the season progresses the offense can get a little better so we will see. I like that Beane and McDermott have a vision. Even though I want the Bills to be a dominant team, I can wait another season to see what this team can be. 

 

Personally I thought that the Bills would be an 8-9 win team this year, with 10-11 wins being an optimistic scenario. Right now I think they are on pace for 10 wins with 11 if they can sweep the next 3 or take an upset in that tough 4 game stretch weeks 13-16. But 10 wins certainly seems plausible. 

 

My expectations where that the team added enough talent (they overhauled the O-line and added some legit offensive weapons) to the offense to take it from one of the worst in the league to an at least decent or below average unit. I thought the defense returned mostly the same unit but with more experience and the defense would be a top 10 unit. I also did think that Andre Roberts was a smart addition to solidify a weak point in special teams with an All-Pro type player which would improve a below average ST unit to a decent one. 

 

What I like about this team is that they are built with sustained winning in mind. This team doesn’t have many bad contracts they can’t get out of, Mitch, Hughes, Brown and Star are the only massive contract the Bills can’t get out of (Mitch and Brown are performing at high levels and Hughes is still a productive player.) Even Star’s contract (which carries 7.8 million in dead money if cut in 2020) could be June 1stdesignated which would spread that hit to 3.4 million in 2020 and 2021 thus saving 6.6 million in 2020 if needed. Kroft and Murphy both can be cut with minimal cap hits. 

 

If the team cuts Murphy and Kroft the team enters into 2020 win 102 million in cap space. Even if they peel off 45 million to take care of their own future extensions they could still add a prime time pass rusher and another starting piece and some depth while not further impacting their cap long term. So this isn’t an all in type season. This is in my opinion possibly the beginning of a 2-4 year run of contention. 

Edited November 4, 2019 by billsfan89

[Prickly Pete]

They are right on track, as far as I'm concerned...I had them going 11-5.

[whatdrought]

So, one could say that this is a few thoughts about the Redskins game, in particular order?

 

This is a very well done thread and the Extra Point is great. I love it.

 

Thank you for drawing attention to the fact that this is the best record the Bills have ever had during my entire life... That brought chills. It's really exciting to see what's coming with this team. Allen is gonna master the short game, and then something is going to snap and he's going to get the long game back. I just know it. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Finally a mostly positive version of the post-game notes.

 

Keep doing this please, great thread.

 

[Boatdrinks]

47 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

All about expectations. Most fans can enjoy the record , all the while still acknowledging the team has flaws  and hoping for improvement. If the Bills can continue to win games and make the playoffs with an incomplete roster, anything else is gravy. A wildcard matchup is likely to pit the Bills vs a team with flaws of its own, and is definitely winnable. That’s far from a disappointing season to me. Fans of 31 teams will have their season end in disappointment so it’s important to acknowledge that going into this thing. Those who can’t handle disappointment may want to check out something else.

[otagoyellow]

An excellent write-up with some great insights. In many ways, the growing pains associated with this team's return to playoff-calibre strength are reminiscent of the 1988/89 Bills. Back then, the pieces were coming together for what would eventually turn into our legendary dominance of the early 90s. We just have to remember that it takes time to build a truly great and dominant squad. We'll get there and damn does it feel good to know that it's coming! 

Edited November 4, 2019 by otagoyellow

[BuffaloHokie13]

This was nice. Thanks!

[billsfan89]

30 minutes ago, otagoyellow said:

An excellent write-up with some great insights. In many ways, the growing pains associated with this team's return to playoff-calibre strength are reminiscent of the 1988/89 Bills. Back then, the pieces were coming together for what would eventually turn into our legendary dominance of the early 90s. We just have to remember that it takes time to build a truly great and dominant squad. We'll get there and damn does it feel good to know that it's coming! 

 

I am curious as to how McBeane looks at the 2020 season. Let's say modestly that the Bills win 10 games and lose in the wildcard round. How do they view the 2020 season? Do they view it as an "All-In" type season where they have Josh on his rookie deal and a ton of cap space to improve a roster win a 10 win talent base? Or do they continue the more sustained approach where they sign maybe one big free agent (like Mitch) and maybe one or two other more modest starting caliber players (like Brown and Cole) while using their massive cap space to take care of their own players in need of extensions? 

 

I think they go with a more prudent approach as opposed to signing 2-3 big free agents and maybe trading for a veteran starter to just go for a run. I could see McBeane going after a big time edge rusher and another starting caliber player on offense or defense but mainly spending their pile of cap space on extensions for their own players. While addressing WR and other needs via the draft. 

 

I hope they don't go too conservative. They need to add at least 2 high end starting pieces to this talent base along with a strong draft to vault this team into contention. I see no reason why they can't "take care of their own" and add a big time pass rusher and another piece somewhere else and then fill the remaining needs via the draft.