By the numbers: Average Defense, Below Avg offense, easy schedule = 6-2 on way to 10-6

[Casey D]

43 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

Given your attitude, do you kick the space puppies? 

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

It was a fair analysis, same as your weekly detailed breakdowns, which one can take it or leave it.

 

The point is that the Bills have had as easy a schedule as possible.  Only three Road games vs. NYJ, NYG & Tenn to boot.  The 4 win Tennessee game is their signature victory.  Other wins vs. teams with 0, 1, 1, 1 & 2.  Washington's only win vs. Miami & Miami's vs. NYJ......

 

[SoCal Deek]

The Bills are playing really good situational football, with the one exception that Josh keeps putting the ball on the ground every single game. The 2019 Bills aren’t going to blow teams off the field but it’s no fluke that they’re 11-2 going back to the end of last season and through preseason. They seem to understand what needs to be done when it needs to be done....and they’re generally doing it. It’s way harder than it looks!

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

This is a growth year team, not a super bowl contender team, don't we all understand this?

 

I will take 10+ wins on a growth year on any easy schedule any day over another 7, 8, 9 win team against a tougher schedule.

 

This team has not had more than 9 wins in what 2 decades, my god just enjoy it.

 

I then don't see growth beating the teams they have beaten, since all 6 wins were within one score into the fourth quarter.

[Mrbojanglezs]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I then don't see growth beating the teams they have beaten, since all 6 wins were within one score into the fourth quarter.

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Edited November 4, 2019 by Mrbojanglezs

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

 

I was about to say something about a LAMP...

 

I can't figure this guy out (well I can but ..)  In the Shoutbox on a Sunday ...  you cant not tell which way is up with this fella.  

 

Most of the time it is all gloom and doom.

The Bills are 6 and 2

for the moment 

 

 

 

 

[eanyills]

3 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

The laughingstock years are irrelevant. McD and the players would tell you that. Missing or backsliding into the playoffs this year won’t be growth to them. It will be failure.

[Dablitzkrieg]

24 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

It is significantly shorter than your diatribe last evening and much more meaningful imo?

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Yes they had the longest streak going into 2017 missing the playoffs, but generally they were just bad (not a laughingstock) as they were generally between 6-9 & 9-7.......  

[Rocbillsfan1]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

We aren't beating anybody in the playoffs. We will get smoked by Baltimore, Kansas City, or Houston. Don't be delusional about this record. The Bills are a paper tiger. One of the softest 6-2 teams I've ever seen.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

7 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

 

This is such an underrated point. Sure, we are beating bad teams. But, for how many years did the Bills lose those games, even in years they thought they had a shot at the playoffs?  Beating the teams you are supposed to beat is 75% of the battle.  

[Albany,n.y.]

46 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

The Jets beat the Cowboys 3 weeks ago & just lost to Miami, so we have to approach individual game predictions with caution,.  Still, there's no way the Bills win only 2 games the rest of the season unless they get a slew of injuries.  

 

Before the season on another board I broke down the reasoning why I thought this was 10 win team.  Here's what I said:  Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.  

 

As of now it looks like we're still on schedule to win 10.  So far my opinion of Baltimore & Jackson may need revision as well as my higher opinion of the Jets.  Flip another Jets win & give the Baltimore game a loss & we still win 10 games.  I still think we can win 1 of the games vs NE, Dallas & Pittsburgh, with the most likely win vs Pittsburgh,  There's also a good chance we beat Cleveland this week & exceed my expectations on the Tennessee/Cleveland split.  I still think we beat Denver at home.  

So if we beat Cleveland, we don't even have to win one of the 3 games remaining against the teams that appeared to be the toughest games before the season started to get to 10 wins.  

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

 

That's how I see it, too. 

 

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The Jets beat the Cowboys 3 weeks ago & just lost to Miami, so we have to approach individual game predictions with caution,.  Still, there's no way the Bills win only 2 games the rest of the season unless they get a slew of injuries.  

 

Before the season on another board I broke down the reasoning why I thought this was 10 win team.  Here's what I said:  Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.  

 

As of now it looks like we're still on schedule to win 10.  So far my opinion of Baltimore & Jackson may need revision as well as my higher opinion of the Jets.  Flip another Jets win & give the Baltimore game a loss & we still win 10 games.  I still think we can win 1 of the games vs NE, Dallas & Pittsburgh, with the most likely win vs Pittsburgh,  There's also a good chance we beat Cleveland this week & exceed my expectations on the Tennessee/Cleveland split.  I still think we beat Denver at home.  

So if we beat Cleveland, we don't even have to win one of the 3 games remaining against the teams that appeared to be the toughest games before the season started to get to 10 wins.  

 

Your not taking into account the inevitable clunker game they will have against a bad team.  And going by what I saw last night, Baltimore will destroy the Bills.

[Albany,n.y.]

15 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Teams always lose games they should win.  Remember the 1992 Bills?  They lost games to the Colts & Jets they had no business losing & it cost them home field.  I remember the only road AFC championship game in the Super Bowl era was that year in Miami because of the 2 losses vs what at the time were bad teams.    

[Seasons1992]

Did you guys know we won the game yesterday? Just in case you missed it, here's the highlight package. https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019110301/2019/REG9/redskins@bills?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2019110301

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Teams always lose games they should win.  Remember the 1992 Bills?  They lost games to the Colts & Jets they had no business losing & it cost them home field.  I remember the only road AFC championship game in the Super Bowl era was that year in Miami because of the 2 losses vs what at the time were bad teams.    

This schedule has been beyond a joke in how easy it has been.  They have played 3 teams with more then 2 wins & are 1-2.

 

To put into context Wash beat Miami, NYG (the juggernaut with 2 W's) beat Wash, Miami beat NYJ....  Only NYJ win was against an actual winning team Dallas. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

[Billsfan1972]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

And again what does that mean for the Bills?  Chubb is a great back, which is not a good match-up.  Cleveland has had a very hard schedule.

 

 

[H2o]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

If Wisenhunt is calling the plays yesterday they lose that game. That new OC saw something on film and had a good gameplan ready against the Packers. Rivers and those guys executed to a T and had sustained drives that resulted in points 6 times. They kept the Packers off the field and that pass rush never allowed Rodgers to get into a rhythm. You can gameplan, but the guys still have to execute. That's what the Chargers did yesterday was execute.