Week 10: Bills at Browns

[CorkScrewHill]

Not certain if this was already posted but the browns are planning to use Kareem Hunt this week. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/04/kareem-hunt-will-have-a-role-with-browns-this-week/. They already have Chubb so other than we do not know what to expect from their use of Hunt .. I am not certain it is a big difference, but for a team grasping for any positive .. this is likely one thing they can look forward to.

 

[Figster]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Obviously. Why are they favored though ... is the question. I prefer it that way, to be clear. 

I'm not much of a betting man and never bet on the Bills. I'm not sure why.

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

The line is a construct of the Vegas bookies to try to balance the action on both teams.  It has nothing to do with the relative strength of the teams.  I follow an analytics site that has the Bills at #18 and the Browns at #25 Browns are at home.  They are saying the Bills have a 46% win percentage and the Browns 54%.  Says the teams are pretty evenly matched and the home team [except for the recent world series] wins 52-53% of the time.  Thats why they play the game.

 

Exactly, which is why referenced public opinion. It’s all about evening out the money on both sides, and the line is indicative of public perception. 

[Comebackkid]

42 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

how does the offense handle garrett and Vernon. how does the defense handle chubb…. I think these matchups will be big factors.

 

…. I wont even pretend to know the answers to those questions.

How did Denver, a team everyone thinks we best easily

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Comebackkid said:

How did Denver, a team everyone thinks we best easily

Denver doesn’t look so easy now, but maybe after there’s some film on the QB. The game looked much better with Flacco at QB. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Apt and vibrant description. It's truly boggling. There's all these complaints about how bad the playcalling is and I am left wondering if that's a misrepresentation of the issue... Obviously it is a play calling issue, but I feel like saying "bad playcalling" misses some of the minutiae of what we're doing wrong.. It's more like, bad flow. We have a great ability to do many different things on Offense successfully. We can run outside successfully, we can run inside successfully. We can pass short successfully, we can pass middle/vertically successfully, the problem as I see it, is that no matter what it is that we do well on drive A, we will forever come back and try something different on drives b-z. If the defense wants us to march down the field with 6 yard passes to Beasley, for ***** sake- DO IT!

 

Exactement. 

 

The other thing someone commented on is that it seems as though periodically, McDermott "coaches his coaches", which hypothetically consists of McDermott sitting down with Daboll and saying something best-managed like "Brian, with the OL and TE we have and now Devin back in the lineup, I'm a bit disappointed we didn't run more last week.  I think this coming week is a good matchup favoring our rush game, and the weather might render the pass game challenging.  I think we should find opportunities to get Singletary the ball.  Let's get together Tuesday at 1:22 am and review your thoughts on the subject before we distribute the game plan in Tuesday meetings."

 

Those of us who have been best-managed and continuously improved in our time will correctly translate this:  "Brian, you @#$@ screwup, why didn't you run the ball down the Iggles @#$@ throats and get Singletary involved in the short pass game last Sunday?  If you know what's good for you, better draw up some @#$% run plays and short pass plays and they better @#$% involve Singletary or I'll be all be all over your @#$% offensive game plan with a red pencil like flies on *&^% and you're not gonna leave until I like it."

So Daboll, being (hypothetically) a decent translator of best-management and not wanting to go entirely sleepless on Monday night into Tuesday, crafts a game plan that features @#$% run plays and short pass plays that @#$% involve Singletary, but that ignores other successful aspects of the game like short and middle/vertical passes to Kroft and Beas.

 

As I recall, something similar played out after the Green Bay debacle last season and before the Titans game.  Against Green Bay's confusing coverage, we tried to pass 33 times and only rushed 16 for 58 yds, despite the fact that Allen was clearly "dazed and confused" in his 3rd start, sacked 7 times, intercepted twice.  No apparent adjustments in game.  McDermott made some similar mild-mannered comments in his presser.  The next week against the Titans, we had a far better designed run game, rushed 43 times for 144 yds vs 20 pass attempts and only 1 sack.  The subsequent game much of that disappeared although we did have better balance and maintained a stronger rush game the rest of the season (except against the Pats).

[Comebackkid]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Denver doesn’t look so easy now, but maybe after there’s some film on the QB. The game looked much better with Flacco at QB. 

, we seem to be getting bad teams at their best.  Damn the luck.  

[Dr. K]

4 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

I don't post often but I feel like everyone's clamoring for Daboll's play calling is so bipolar.  On the second series from first and goal we went backwards because he was too cute.  So we settled for a field goal.  Then on the third series of first and goal we run it right up the middle and get stuffed 3 times in a row.  Everyone whines that it was horrible play calling.  I am pretty sure McDermott has a say in a bit of that.  Also I have to imagine that the coaches want our team to impose our will on other teams.  Like how Philly did it to us.  McDermott always talks about establishing the line of scrimmage.  Also Frank Gore ran right up the middle against the Pat's defense just fine.  I put way less into play calling and more into execution.  When we went for it on 4th and 1 and got stuffed did anyone watch Mitch Morse get blown back into Gore?  That is hardly Gore's fault or the play call.  That is getting owned by the other player not he other line of scrimmage.  

 

Also I put the failure in Philly on execution.  So many false starts, holding calls, missed reads, etc.  

 

I think Daboll is a good play caller.  I would take him over Gase or Kitchens any day of the week.  That being said I think the offense needs to get out of their own way with the mistakes.  This game against the Redskins was much better from a penalty stand point.  I am glad they are taking some deep shots.  Allen has been off target on a lot early.  I think the one vs Philly and the one vs Washington to Foster were both very catchable.  He needs to track the ball better.  when you only are getting one shot a game you need to make a play on the ball.

 

On defense my biggest concerns is Wallace.  Especially this week vs the Browns.  They have talent at the WR position.  No doubt they pick on Wallace like Philly did.  Also giving up another 100 yards rushing (in the first half) doesn't exactly exude confidence against the next few upcoming opponents with good running games. 

 

Last thought is most people before this season thought 9-7 or 10-6 season.  I don't know that I think this team has taken enough of a jump to beat that.  However the AFC teams have taken a dump so now it is expected that we beat that record.  Which I think is doable.  Maybe 11-5 or even 12-4 if they play big in a game or two.  That being said just because the AFC teams are crumbling doesn't mean my expectations of our talent or development of our talent has changed.  We still are a team developing.  I think Allen has made good progress this season.  I think he will continue to as well.  The 300 yard thing would be nice but only if the game dictated it.  We have been in control most games so why would we just go out and start throwing around?  Run the clock out.  If I recall all the second guesser fans out there were complaining a few weeks back when Daboll called three pass plays in a row and we took no time off the clock.  I believe it was the Miami game.  This is what I refer to as bipolar.  Hindsight is always 20/20.  In that game I am sure he thought our team should be able to stick it to them and because of execution we didn't.  People complained that we should have been running it.  So yea I do think these coaches do play aggressive enough.  We have gone for it a lot on 4th down this season.  More so than I can ever remember.

 

Bottom line I have no complaints.  We are doing as well as I had hoped for.  I hope we can keep it going.  Beat Browns, Denver, Miami, and Jets.  Maybe sneak out another win against Pittsburgh or Dallas.  Now if the Patriots start to get dismantled by other teams going forward then maybe I will get greedy for the division (lol).  But I never expected the division this season.  However after watching the improvement this season I do expect us to push for the division seriously next season.

 

To my mind this is the most sensible post in this thread. I get tired of the manic-depressive nature of the comments on the board, and the 20-20 hindsight. 

[BritBill]

1 hour ago, stony said:

Was it just me, or did anyone else think Phillips was going to get a flag for hitting the QB so hard. It was legal and clean, I’m just getting preconditioned to expect a flag for stuff like that. 

 

Think Haskins’ size helped. If it had been Murray it might not have ended so well. 

[Big C]

19 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Denver doesn’t look so easy now, but maybe after there’s some film on the QB. The game looked much better with Flacco at QB. 

 

They didn't ask much of the new QB. Lots of yards on a catch and run TD from Fant to pad the stats. I'm not particularly worried about him.

Edited November 4, 2019 by Big C

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Big C said:

 

They didn't ask much of the new QB. Lots of yards on a catch and run TD from Fant to pad the stats. I'm not particularly worried about him.

Perhaps not. I saw some of the game on Redzone. It’s an unknown , and I’d still rather play the known mediocrity ( being kind ) in Flacco. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

I don't post often but I feel like everyone's clamoring for Daboll's play calling is so bipolar.  (....)

 

I think Daboll is a good play caller.  I would take him over Gase or Kitchens any day of the week.  

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion that Daboll is a good play caller, but "take him over Gase or Kitchens"?  That's kind of a low bar, don't you think?

 

FWIW I think this quote about Daboll from a Cover1 article by Fernando Schmude pretty well has it right:
Overall, he called a good game, but surely, just like his QB and the rest of the offense, he’s still a work in progress. He needs to find a balance between being aggressive and conservative in his calls, and take advantage of the multifaceted potential of this offense, using it according to their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Comebackkid]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Dumboll isn't going to do obvious things for obvious reasons

[syhuang]

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

 

 

Could you IMAGINE if McDermott said something like that? Whooooooo people would be lighting their pitchforks on fire instead of the torches.

 

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

The Browns 2 - 6 record is deceiving and is not indicative of the talent they have on the roster IMO.

 

Philly had a losing record when we played them...

All I'm saying is the Bills shouldn't be upset about being an underdog against any team currently. They've played to the level of their competition all season and we're starting to see they really aren't that much better, maybe marginally on talent and  coaching. I'm glad we're 6-2 because that at least shows we're beating the team we're supposed to. Browns like Philly are a desperate team right now and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills lost. Upset, yes but not surprised.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Chandler#81]