Scoring points rank

[Cuboirs]

20 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The OP believes that Beane thinks the Bills have the pieces already ? This is doubtful. They still need a WR, Pass rusher and OT most likely. Many reports that the Bills were actively looking to trade for a WR support this notion. The Bills offense needs to do better, but it’s not yet a complete unit. The offense needs to be around the top half of the league in scoring points. They’re not there yet, but they can improve their output this year. Fewer mistakes by Allen and a commitment to the running game by Daboll should help in this area. Will Daboll do this ? That’s another story, and may ultimately decide where the Bills stand in week 17. The passing game has improved from last year’s horrible output, but it’s not good enough to carry the offense right now. 

Reports that Bills we searching are just reports!! Fact is good organizations make changes and are never complacent.Pats do it every year and it works...So the philosophy that putting such a high value on picks nonsense...More often you draft and build players and by the time they are fully developed " If they even pan out to be good" they are walking out the door #facts...we had a chance to get Sanu and Sanders but rather us giving up picks we stayed put and let our rivals strengthen their teams....great strategy 

[GreggTX]

23 hours ago, Cuboirs said:

Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already

 

To be accurate, Beane never said we had "all the right pieces already." You just made that up. My problem with Beane is that our 1st and 2nd round picks that he's made haven't performed well. We'll never be very good unless he starts nailing those top picks.

[Cuboirs]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

 

To be accurate, Beane never said we had "all the right pieces already." You just made that up. My problem with Beane is that our 1st and 2nd round picks that he's made haven't performed well. We'll never be very good unless he starts nailing those top picks.

That's the reason I say we have to stop overvaluing these picks and if you have an opportunity to trade for a proven player you act....that's all I'm saying 

[Socal-805]

On 10/31/2019 at 7:47 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Maybe.  But say more about why you pick that particular number, and what is the justification for your choice?

 

 

Allen's passing is bad:  look at any metric you like.  It's just bad.

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

The point differential is +12 over 7 games. Small sample size warning, but this suggests the Bills are awfully lucky to be at 5-2. The most common NFL Pythagorean record formula would suggest the Bills point differential implies a .550 team, as opposed to our current .714. That’s the difference over a season between an 11.4 win team and an 8.8 win team. 

Of course, there really isn’t such a thing as an adequate sample size in football. These models work much better in MLB, where teams play more than 10 times more games. But still, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that this team right now has been both reasonably good  AND lucky, although it’s fair to debate which one accounts more for our 5-2 record so far. (And, of course, add in weakness of schedule as another factor). My seat of the pants guess: we’re really middle of the pack in the NFL as far as true talent goes, yet pleasantly clearly playoff bound if we don’t screw it up royally...

[Dopey]

On 10/31/2019 at 9:47 AM, Lagoon Blues said:

Can you please post the chart with all?  Wonder how close all are and how many haven't had the bye yet.  Quite a few teams haven't had bye yet...or does that go against your narrative...  If i am not mistaken 18 teams or so haven't had the bye yet...An extra game does tend to help...

Good question. I looked at that and we might jump up 3 spots. I took our apg and added it to our total to make up for the 1 extra game for those that haven't had a bye yet. Might not be the most scientific way, but it works for me.

[jrober38]

7 hours ago, BananaB said:

Do you guys just expect every player in this league to step in and look like a seasoned vet? 
 

Our offense is full of castoffs. A bunch a guys who came here to get more playing time then they could somewhere else. It’s better then last year but we are still not very talented. 

 

Most of the successful franchise QBs across the NFL over the last 15 years showed they were really good really early on.

 

Guys who were still struggling well into their second season rarely go onto be successful. 

[Dopey]

On 10/31/2019 at 9:44 AM, Cuboirs said:

Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already

19 teams have played 1 more game than us. Arizona has 2 more games. If you account for that, we should jump 3-4 spots. Not great but, it is important to note.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Dopey

[Dopey]

On 10/31/2019 at 9:44 AM, Cuboirs said:

Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already

Only 20 teams have a worse record so far than Buffalo. That's not counting the 3 teams that are 5-3 teams. I think he's doing a damn good job. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Bills points DIFF is +18 right now.  Baltimore, another 5-2 team, is +58. 

New England's is +189.  SF is +133.

Redskins is -89.

The reality is that Josh Allen is something like the 25th best QB in the league depending on how you want to slice and dice it and what you look at or value.

Don't expect a better passing attack without a better QB.

 

jrober may be a leetle bit of a pill, picking flaws instead of doing his own homework and making his own case, but he is correct that if you want to look at DIFF you do need to correct for games played.  Look at DIFF per game (includes Monday, prior to Thurs nite game)

 

To put this in perspective here is another graph.  What it shows is that there is a spread in DIFF/game for each  # wins.   For the 5-win teams, the Ravens, Chiefs, and Rams have the best diff/game.  The Colts have the worst, Bills are 2nd worst.

 

There is also a spread for teams with 6 and 7 wins.  There's a 6 win team that's close to the Bills, and a 4 win team that is better. 

 

I think the point is when you look from this perspective, we're 13th in the league.  Neither bottom scraping nor excellent.

 

 

[1997WS6]

Wow.  Reading this thread with its stats and talk of percentages and correlation, it reminds me of political debates and how you can skew numbers to say whatever you want them to.  Most of us can recognize a good offense when we see one and ours isn't there yet.  There has been improvement, but it still needs a lot of work.  That being said, I think we're on the right track and Josh is a smart, hard working kid that is trying.  I feel better about Josh than I do our play calling.

[Real McClappy]

Been avoiding this place lately since the Eagles win as several threads (most by F^$#ing noobs) are unbearable like this one. 

 

5-2 and can give a rats A$$ how it was done, or whom it was done against.  All that matters is this Sunday when our mid season Bills come out with a 6-2 record.  

 

If we lose against the Redskins let the Sky fall chicken littles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jrb1979]

36 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Been avoiding this place lately since the Eagles win as several threads (most by F^$#ing noobs) are unbearable like this one. 

 

5-2 and can give a rats A$$ how it was done, or whom it was done against.  All that matters is this Sunday when our mid season Bills come out with a 6-2 record.  

 

If we lose against the Redskins let the Sky fall chicken littles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am guessing you don't believe in any of the stats that are out there that show how good or bad your team is really doing. I believe this team isn't as good as their record indicates. Their offense needs to be much better if they want to get anywhere. 

[Chris66]

No it doesnt. If the defense plays the way its capable Bills should win with 11 pts.

[Real McClappy]

4 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

I am guessing you don't believe in any of the stats that are out there that show how good or bad your team is really doing. I believe this team isn't as good as their record indicates. Their offense needs to be much better if they want to get anywhere. 

I'm a electromechanical engineer where statistics and data analysis actually do matter.

In this game of football the only stat that matters is 5-2. Turn in, flip it, fling it or toss it anyway you want but that stat (W/L) is not going to change regardless of how much of a losing mentality some TBD Bills fans. Let's say we finished 11-5 or 12-4 and only won each of those games by 1pt. Would you still care with the end result being either of those records heading into the playoffs?

 

Seeing progression and our team getting better every week is all I really expect or care about. Last Sunday we took a lump, people still can't get over this like we were going to go 15-1 or something this year? 

 

Just embrace it! I Hope to see the team finally gel together and start playing really strong football the 2nd half of the year. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 10/31/2019 at 7:46 AM, jrober38 said:

We have one of the worst passing games in the league.

 

Points will remain at a premium until Josh Allen's cumulative QB Rating surpasses 90. 

And that won't happen till next year. Still no #1wr, poor TE production and an idiot OC will slow this progress. We still should get 10 wins this year but next year is the breakout.

[Jrb1979]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

And that won't happen till next year. Still no #1wr, poor TE production and an idiot OC will slow this progress. We still should get 10 wins this year but next year is the breakout.

Its always next year for Bills fans. There is no guarantee they play better next year.  IMO when you are 5-2 and have one of the best records in the AFC, you go for it. Claiming Gordon would have helped their offense. Of course it all depends on Allen and so far he hasn't been good enough. 

[US Egg]

23 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

Had Hyde gone down instead of running the onsides kick in for a TD, we would be 27th in points per game.

But he did not go down.

 

The best play to watch by a Bills player this year.....so far.

 

it seemed surreal to see.

[SirAndrew]

7 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Been avoiding this place lately since the Eagles win as several threads (most by F^$#ing noobs) are unbearable like this one. 

 

5-2 and can give a rats A$$ how it was done, or whom it was done against.  All that matters is this Sunday when our mid season Bills come out with a 6-2 record.  

 

If we lose against the Redskins let the Sky fall chicken littles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we lose to the Redskins, it wouldn’t be a “Chicken Little” scenario at all. It would be a rational concern that this team is going nowhere, but rather than worry about that potential, I’ll just stay confident this team should beat Washington. In that scenario, all is well. 

[Boatdrinks]

15 hours ago, Cuboirs said:

Reports that Bills we searching are just reports!! Fact is good organizations make changes and are never complacent.Pats do it every year and it works...So the philosophy that putting such a high value on picks nonsense...More often you draft and build players and by the time they are fully developed " If they even pan out to be good" they are walking out the door #facts...we had a chance to get Sanu and Sanders but rather us giving up picks we stayed put and let our rivals strengthen their teams....great strategy 

I’ll take a stab at deciphering your rather loose sentence structure and issue a retort. It’s a fact that the Bills changed out most players on their starting offense this season. Four new offensive linemen , currently 3 new WRs , and 3 new TEs. That’s hardly complacent , it’s a complete overhaul. Was adding a Sanders or Sanu going to put the Bills over the Pats this season? Probably not, and the GM decided the price being asked wasn’t in line with the quality. The Bills need a true #1 WR, and have their sights on bigger things than what was out there. The 49ers landed Sanders, but they’re in the NFC and not the Bills rivals. They and the Pats are in a different situation than the Bills, whether you want to admit it or not. The Pats are trying to make the most out of their last couple seasons with Brady, and the Niners are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bills are not there yet, and another FA period ( they have a lot of cap room- among the most in the NFL) to add top players coupled with another draft should address most of their weaknesses. 

Edited November 2, 2019 by Boatdrinks