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Run Defense - Interesting Stats/Observations


mjt328

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Eagles O-line is one of the best in the league, and their game plan obviously was to run the ball all over the Bills, and pass JUST enough, which they did very successfully

on a very windy day.

 

Eagles are not a cupcake team like most of the other opponents to date: wait for the Dallas game.  Expect MUCH of the same with a terrific O-line and Z. Elliot running wild.

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m not sure it’s more nuanced. We have a good defense with no holes. We don’t have any real game changing talent in the front 7 which is why the defense can be exploited by good offenses and we’re not getting turnovers unless a QB is dumb enough to throw towards Tre. Swap out Lawson/Murphy for Mack/Garret and this is an elite defense. As it stands, the biggest hopes for improvement on D are that Milano was rusty or slow coming off injury, we can nab a good replacement for Peko off the waiver wire, and/ the Eagles just exploited Edmunds inexperience and his recognition/calls improve. Changing the defensive scheme will likely just create a problem somewhere else. 
 

As for the margin of error... Unless a light goes on for Allen or Daboll I don’t see it improving this year barring Foster suddenly getting hot again. Beane patched all the holes on this roster. We’re beating the bottom half of the league because they cannot exploit a weakness with one or two excellent players. Unfortunately the better teams have enough game changing talent to exploit this. Is what it is. We’re going to have a nice run this year because of schedule strength and there’s always the possibility that they play over their talent in a wildcard game. I hope that next season Allen improving and adding a few top talents pushes this team into perennial playoff contention. Allen’s growth aside this team will be there with a few upgrades. 

Patched all the holes? 31-13 says the tire is still leaking. 

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10 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

My original point was that literally giving up 5 yards on every rush play (not just on average) is worse than giving up a 60 yard rush play and 2.0 ypc on the remaining rushes. I acknowledge that both are bad. I am only saying one is worse than the other. 

I don’t think one is worse than the other. Particularly when a couple big run plays come with defensive breakdowns on “3rd & long”. It makes 3rd & 1 vs 3rd & 8 irrelevant. Either way the defense doesn’t get off the field. Both are demoralizing and signify the existence of a problem with scheme/talent. 

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Just now, iinii said:

Patched all the holes? 31-13 says the tire is still leaking. 

We’re not starting any players that couldn’t start on other teams (WR #2 aside). They’re very average at most positions though, and that means those players will lose some matchups to dominant players. The eagles aren’t devoid of talent. They have some poor players on the field due to injury, but plenty of probowler level talents on the field to exploit matchups against average talent....

 

So yes. The holes are patched. That doesn’t mean the boat isn’t sitting low in the water and susceptible to capsizing in rough water. 

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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I don’t think one is worse than the other. Particularly when a couple big run plays come with defensive breakdowns on “3rd & long”. It makes 3rd & 1 vs 3rd & 8 irrelevant. Either way the defense doesn’t get off the field. Both are demoralizing and signify the existence of a problem with scheme/talent. 

 

If the Eagles run for five yards on every carry, that means two things. First, it means that the offense never gets to third down because they get the tenth yard on the second run. It also means that they are scoring at will.  It hurts you on every drive. 

 

If the Eagles run for 2.0 ypc, it means they have to deal with multiple 3rd and longs.  Even if the Eagles convert at a high clip, it still means the defense is getting off the field on some occasions.  That 65 yard run hurts for one drive, and that's it. 

 

One is worse than the other. 

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8 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

If the Eagles run for five yards on every carry, that means two things. First, it means that the offense never gets to third down because they get the tenth yard on the second run. It also means that they are scoring at will.  It hurts you on every drive. 

 

If the Eagles run for 2.0 ypc, it means they have to deal with multiple 3rd and longs.  Even if the Eagles convert at a high clip, it still means the defense is getting off the field on some occasions.  That 65 yard run hurts for one drive, and that's it. 

 

One is worse than the other. 

Perhaps in a vacuum. However, there will never be a game where a team gets 5, and only 5, yards on every run play unless they only run the ball once. It’s always an average. You’re ignoring the possibility that they’re averaging 5 yards a carry because they can’t complete a single pass successfully and could end up behind the sticks anyways. Most good teams can rely on 5 yard runs against the Chiefs... However, they still pass because they have to keep up with that offense. Isolating a metric isn’t the full story. Why the defense can’t get off the field doesn’t matter much because eventually they’ll get tired and the 4 minute offense will ice the game. 
 

The simple truth is that the Eagles exploited a defensive weakness and won because of it. The only thing that matters is if that weakness can be fixed. We shall see. 

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25 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

We’re not starting any players that couldn’t start on other teams (WR #2 aside). They’re very average at most positions though, and that means those players will lose some matchups to dominant players. The eagles aren’t devoid of talent. They have some poor players on the field due to injury, but plenty of probowler level talents on the field to exploit matchups against average talent....

 

So yes. The holes are patched. That doesn’t mean the boat isn’t sitting low in the water and susceptible to capsizing in rough water. 

You know what they say about average; it means half are better. How many offensive lineman would the Eagles trade you straight up for? As you pointed out wide receivers, so same with the Chefs or Saints in that department. Just to name a few.

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The best way to eliminate the damage done by the run game is to take away that run game, and the best way to take away the run game is to get a quick lead and keep adding to it. In other words, until the Bills O can figure out how to score early in the game and to be a threat on every possession, the D is going to have the ball run down its throat.

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I might agree, but there’s two problems...

 

1) The defense was poor on 3rd and long. They had trouble getting off the field. The Eagles figured out some effective ways to beat 3rd down defense. Couple that with a few big plays and it results in a loss. 
 

2) This defense operates on a small margin of error. The offense simply isn’t good enough to over come a poor defensive outing. That margin seems to be one big play or timely scoring drive. 
 

When you combine both of those issues you get games like Sunday where this team cannot steal momentum back... It’s concerning. Fortunately every team left on our schedule isn’t going to be capable of exploiting this. However, Dallas, NE and Baltimore have the talent and coaching to exploit these issues. The Bills are a good team with some weaknesses. If Allen makes a second half performance jump like he did last year then some of those weaknesses won’t be as great. Outside of that occurring we’re gonna have to weather the occasional storm until we get a few more game changers to create big plays. 

 

 

brah, point 2 is a good one.

 

the bills seem very low risk on pass D, not blitzing too much, not trying to get too exotic on coverages, but in order to keep that pass d advantage, we seem to roll the dice some on run D.  we don't stack up the box as much as the teams we face (altho that has a lot to do w our passing game), and we seem to require the lb's to make a quick read and shoot the gap, sunday showed us what happens when we don't do that.

 

i understand that bad games are gonna happen, but i just feel frustrated that our coaches and players just aren't as smart as the pats, who always seem to have an adjustment or new wrinkle based on who they are playing and conditions.  i feel like we woulda been in the exact same formations if our game was in 65 degree sunny no wind conditions, and that's just not smart.

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Stats aside.  Star and especially Edmunds were move around and pushed around all day long.   Oliver wasn't quite as bad.  It looked like the Eagles looked for Edmunds and either ran at him or threw at him constantly.  If you are able, watch the game again and look for that.  Edmunds has some mass to put on before next year.  Star has to go.

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Hmmm...so if we don't count all their best running plays and only count their worst ones, we can conclude that our run defense was awesome.

 

And yes, Captain Queeg proved, through geometric logic, that a duplicate key to the ward room icebox had to exist.

 

  

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4 hours ago, row_33 said:

"Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  "

 

 

Apart from letting in those 7 runs in the 2nd inning, the pitching staff was real good today in the 8-0 loss.

 

"Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

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2 hours ago, iinii said:

You know what they say about average; it means half are better. How many offensive lineman would the Eagles trade you straight up for? As you pointed out wide receivers, so same with the Chefs or Saints in that department. Just to name a few.

So your point is that average players are an exploitable hole at any position on a football team? IMO a hole is a player that is overmatched by any legitimate talent.... Kind of like when we trotted out Cedric Thornton at DT. 
 

For the record, I would love to have four probowl Olinemen like the eagles, especially if paired with all of KCs playmakers. The NFL isn’t Madden though, so the cap reality of the NFL dictates that top salaries require saving money elsewhere. It’s why some of these “stacked” teams have absolute trash for depth at key positions or try to get by with poor starters.... Just look at the Chiefs defense if you want an example. 

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All in all, it was just a bad game and a bad match-up for the Bills.

 

1. The Eagles were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. So they were highly motivated.

 

2. Despite their record, the Eagles are still a pretty good team and are well-coached. They are just a year-removed from being Super Bowl champs.

 

3. The windy conditions made it difficult for either team to pass. (Both QBs wound up with about 170 yards passing.)

 

4. The Bills'  defense held up pretty well in the first half. They held the Eagles to 3 points inside of the 2:00 warning when Josh Allen fumbled and set the Philly offense up in good position. Soon the Eagles went from a 3-7 deficit to a 11-7 lead.

 

5. After a well-done drive to place the Bills in the position to try a long field goal at the end of the half, which was no good, the Eagles got the ball first in the 2nd half. That is when the 65-yard run occurred, and suddenly it was 17-7.

 

6. The offense answered back with a TD drive of their own to make the score a respectable 17-13, which seemed OK at the time given Allen and the offense's success in the 4th quarter.

 

7. The Eagles did a nice job with long sustained drives in the 3rd and 4th quarters, including some key 3rd down conversions thanks to Wentz's legs. Meanwhile, the Bills offense got too pass-happy in the windy conditions, which led to some 3-and-out situations. The defense wore down in the 4th as a result.

 

In the gamut of a season, you are going to have a few games a year when something like this happens. The Kelly-era Bills even had 2-3 games like this every year. So I am not freaking too much. We have 2 losses. One of them was against the Patriots, which was only by 6 points in a game win which Allen turned the ball over repeatedly. (The Pats have blown out all of their other 7 opponents).  Let's see how they bounce back this week.

 

Now, if the Redskins also manage to pile up 200+ rushing yards and shut down our offense, then I'll start worrying some. ?

 

 

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