THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Uninspired

[Shaw66]

“Uninspired”

 

Apologies to all who read this.  I’m uninspired today, and I’m afraid this Rockpile Review is uninspired, too. 

 

The Buffalo Bills inspire me.  They energize and excite me.   Almost everything about the Bills’ 31-13 loss to the Eagles on Sunday was uninspiring.  So today I’m uninspired, too.  If what follows is as disappointing as the Bills were on Sunday, I apologize.

 

Come to think of it, the Bills should apologize, too.   That performance was pretty bad.

 

I don’t mind losing.   I went into the game thinking there was a good chance the Bills would lose.  I mind not showing up, and that’s all I could think about the Bills’ performance on Sunday. 

 

Were there bright spots?  Oh, yes, I’m sure there were bright spots, and I’ll probably think of a few to talk about, but the fact that I, a confirmed homer, have to work to think of positives in that game is some evidence of how poorly the Bills performed. 

 

Note to Bills:  In order to win football games at home, it is not enough to stand on the sideline, waving your arms to get the fans to make more noise.  You actually have to play football.

 

I’m working on a theory:  Sean McDermott’s teams go flat in the middle of the season.  McDermott is 20-19 in his career as a head coach.   In games six through ten in his career, he is 4-8.   I know, there are too many variables to draw any serious conclusions, and it’s probably too small a sample size, but nearly half of his losses have come in the middle third of the season.   Think of it this way:  Two-thirds of the season, McDermott has a winning percentage that matches the career winning percentages of guys like Pete Carroll, Mike Holmgren, and Bruce Arians.  In the middle third of the season, his winning percentage puts him in a group with Jay Gruden, Eric Mangini, and Mike Mularkey.

 

Recall for a minute these lowlights:  In 2017, in the middle third of the season and after not competing in a loss to the Jets, the playoff-bound Bills lose at home to the Saints, 47-10 and follow it up with a loss on the road to the Chargers, 54-24.  In 2018 they lose four out of five in the middle of the season, including blow-out losses to the Bears and the Colts, not exactly powerhouse teams.  This season they don’t show up against the Eagles after a lackluster win over the winless Dolphins. 

 

It seems like McDermott figures out how to win games early, his opponents discover how to stop the Bills in the middle of the season, and McDermott reinvents the team to finish the season strong.  Two thirds of that formula is pretty good.  One third isn’t.

 

Many people put these losses on the players, but I don’t.   I think it’s a coach/QB driven league, and although Allen didn’t play well enough, Allen wasn’t the difference in the game.  You can’t blame the Eagles’ 218 rushing yards on Allen.  Here are a few examples of why coaching is so important:

 

1.  When a team is well-prepared for a game, they get a lot of easy plays.   Fitzpatrick got a lot of easy throws against the Bills last week, and the Eagles got a lot of easy runs this week.  I haven’t studied the film, but I noticed on several of the Eagles’ successful runs up the middle of the Bills defense, Edmunds was nowhere to be seen.  Often he was stuck in the wrong gap, just watching the ball carrier go by.   That happened to Edmunds often last season, but it wasn’t happening very much this season.  Now, maybe Edmunds all of sudden reverted to his rookie bad habits, but it’s much more likely he was handling his assignment as coached and that the Eagles figured out how to take advantage of how the Bills defense attacked gaps.   It happened too often to be an accident.  On Sanders’ 74-yard touchdown, on the other hand, Edmunds just didn’t work hard enough to beat the block. 

 

2.  Here’s something the Bills did well.  Sometime in the third quarter, the Eagles put Agholor in motion from the left.  He was sprinting hard.  The instant he went in motion, three Bills defenders shifted quickly and by the time Agholor got the handoff, Milano was sprinting past the line of scrimmage and made the tackle for a loss.   The Bills knew exactly what was coming.  It wasn’t football instincts; they were prepared. 

 

3.  Same thing on Singletary’s touchdown.  The Bills knew something. 

 

4.  For the second week in a row, the Bills passing attack was not generating many easy throws like the Singletary TD.  Allen got some, to be sure, but more often than not he was in the pocket wondering where he could go with the ball.  Often, he threw to guys who were tightly covered.   That tells me that once again this week, Daboll failed to identify successful ways to attack the Eagles defensive schemes.  

 

Sunday, the wind was fierce but the rain held off for most of the game.  The ball probably was wet often, but the wind seemed to be the only factor that seriously affected play.  

 

There were a lot of Eagles fans in the crowd, and they made a lot of noise, especially as their team got the upper hand, just like Bills fans have performed on the road a few times in the past couple of seasons.  

 

It was odd to see green McCoy jerseys in the stadium. 

 

A few one-shot comments:

 

1.  I’d be really excited about Josh Allen if he were a rookie and played that game.  He isn’t a rookie, and he needs to be better.

 

2.  The Eagles’ offensive line dominated in the run game.   The Bills’ offensive line didn’t.  In the passing game, it was more or less a standoff – some nice pockets, some pressures and some sacks, both ways. 

 

3.  What in the world was Foster doing on the deep throw in the second quarter?  Sure, it was underthrown, but Allen’s been overthrowing deep balls all season, and with that wind at his back, I’m sure he took something off it.  Foster seemed to make no effort to make a play on the ball. 

 

4.  I seriously under-appreciated Milano for two seasons.   No more.  Dude is a stud. 

 

5.  The Bills still are short on offensive playmakers.  Beasley and Brown get open when the scheme creates openings, and good as he is, Gore just gets everything that’s there, but not much more.  Singletary needs more touches, because he’s the only guy who looks like a true playmaker.

 

6.  And Kroft.  Kroft looks like he could be special at TE, one who can exploit defenses.

 

7.  The greatness of the Bills’ defense was a myth.  It’s good, but great defenses don’t get outplayed like that. They repeatedly failed to make the stops they needed.  Ultimately, though, it was the offense that lost the game.  Despite the offensive struggles, the game was more or less even at the half.  The Bills trailed at the half because of Allen’s fumble and the missed field goal, but the stats and time of possession all were more or less even.  In the second half, after one touchdown drive the Bills offense had nothing and the Bills defense had no answer for the Eagles. 

 

Good teams win the games they should win, and they win some of their tough games.  The Bills have five wins because they’ve won the games they should win, and they have two losses because they haven’t been able to win tough games.   The Bills now have three in a row that they should win, but it’s the middle third of the season, so we’ll see.       

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[oldmanfan]

Yeah, pretty much spot on.

[Virgil]

I feel ya.  Made a post about mid-season fall offs last night.  It’s a thing. 
 

Good job pushing through it to write this.  I know it’s not easy 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I feel ya.  Made a post about mid-season fall offs last night.  It’s a thing. 
 

Good job pushing through it to write this.  I know it’s not easy 

Tell me about it.  I drive six and a half hours after the game, and usually by the time I get home I have a good idea about what I want to say.   I got home last night and didn't have a clue.  

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Tell me about it.  I drive six and a half hours after the game, and usually by the time I get home I have a good idea about what I want to say.   I got home last night and didn't have a clue.  

You could have had a two word column this week:

 

They stunk

[toto8]

Thanks for the review, always great.

 

Good observation on the mid-season slump. I was concerned about the Dolphins game as you mention it above but I thought we were going to be fine. Boy I was wrong.

 

I don't know why but I have memories of the 2008 season. We started 5-1 and ended 7-9 wining only 3 more games. I hope this is not the case.

[US Egg]

The amount of blowout losses under McDermott can't be dismissed as incidental.

[Jrb1979]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Tell me about it.  I drive six and a half hours after the game, and usually by the time I get home I have a good idea about what I want to say.   I got home last night and didn't have a clue.  

Maybe tuning into the Sabres tonight will help. They have been playing inspiring hockey. 

 

As far as the Bills go, having a conservative coach is not helping things. Yesterday being a tough game, should have been one where they be aggressive with their offense. Letting Allen be a game manager is not helping his growth. I say let him along it and see what happens. Maybe he will learn more that way. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

The amount of blowout losses under McDermott can't be dismissed as incidental.

True.  And the blowout losses tend to come in the middle of the season.   

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

Maybe tuning into the Sabres tonight will help. They have been playing inspiring hockey. 

 

As far as the Bills go, having a conservative coach is not helping things. Yesterday being a tough game, should have been one where they be aggressive with their offense. Letting Allen be a game manager is not helping his growth. I say let him along it and see what happens. Maybe he will learn more that way. 

 

Tom Brady was a game manager before taking off. Just saying.

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

Josh needs to manage his propensity to fumble the ball. He’s had to put it on the ground at least 10 this year already 

[ctk232]

44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

1.  When a team is well-prepared for a game, they get a lot of easy plays.   Fitzpatrick got a lot of easy throws against the Bills last week, and the Eagles got a lot of easy runs this week.  I haven’t studied the film, but I noticed on several of the Eagles’ successful runs up the middle of the Bills defense, Edmunds was nowhere to be seen.  Often he was stuck in the wrong gap, just watching the ball carrier go by.   That happened to Edmunds often last season, but it wasn’t happening very much this season.  Now, maybe Edmunds all of sudden reverted to his rookie bad habits, but it’s much more likely he was handling his assignment as coached and that the Eagles figured out how to take advantage of how the Bills defense attacked gaps.   It happened too often to be an accident.  On Sanders’ 74-yard touchdown, on the other hand, Edmunds just didn’t work hard enough to beat the block. 

[...]

2.  The Eagles’ offensive line dominated in the run game.   The Bills’ offensive line didn’t.  In the passing game, it was more or less a standoff – some nice pockets, some pressures and some sacks, both ways. 

 

Love the posts as always, Shaw!

 

Inside zone left - it's all they ran. Hell, they ran it so often Tim Graham wrote The Athletic post game write-up about it, and included commentary from Eagles line players and our defense. Granted, it was run out of various formations, but it wasn't something that was being stopped and they were going to literally run with it until they couldn't. I feel like a good amount of this is actually in relation to your second point above, and that this was the first real OL we've faced all season long. It doesn't bode well for our Turkey Day date with the Cowboys, but after a couple weeks of weaker OL's and our DL's middling/average performances against them, this week almost spelled disaster for the DL. Beyond the known issues with Edmunds in his gap assignments and block shedding on run downs (which he has actually been overall better about this year than last), was that we do not currently have a starting 1T DT on our roster. Star has regressed to the point where he is losing even his one-on-one matchups, and cannot move laterally to assist in first contact plays on running downs. Not sure any of us expected big things from Peko, but he's been, as expected, a non-issue for opposing lines in Harry's absence. 

 

What we're seeing now is a combination of issues with that specific role on our DL, Edmunds having a rough time with gap and block shedding assignments as a result, and opposing team's recognition of our rotation strategy. They know we're missing Harry, and that we consistently rotate personnel to provide fresh legs on key downs, however Zo spent more of the first quarter on the sidelines than in-play once he rotated off and the Eagles kept him off the field. It's something Miami exposed last week with us and injuries, and the Eagles took it further this past week with selecting opposing personnel and hurry-up packages to match.

 

It's hard - there's currently no internal remedy to the 1T DT role, and likely not one that can be readily found externally at this point until FA. Our run defense seems to go the way Edmunds plays in his gap assignment/block shedding roles, which is clearly impacted by the DL's ability to prevent/delay second level blocks at times. It's still something he did well with against the Giants and a few other weeks this season, but when he has games like the last two we do not have the DL personnel to compensate and assist until Harry is back next year, and hopefully performing at the same level. This leaves, more or less, schematic changes in how we approach the first quarter defensively to allow Edmunds what's needed for effective gap execution to set the tone for the game. For what it's worth, though, he wasn't the only one blowing gap assignments yesterday and getting eaten up by blocks.

Edited October 28, 2019 by ctk232

[SoCal Deek]

Nice write up Shaw, and pretty much spot on.

I have a slightly different spin. This game was actually not that different from many of the other games this season, except for one drive. Yes, Allen turned it over in the second quarter leading to the Eagles taking the lead at halftime. Yes, the Bills defense gave up an uncharacteristic long run for a touchdown in the opening minute of the second half....but the Bills were still in it when they got the ball, and the wind, at the start of the fourth quarter.  That's where it went wrong!  The Bills went three and out consuming a total of 20 seconds on three straight incompletions by an offense that frankly looked aimless. They ended up putting the defense right back on the field, and really never got the ball back until the game was over.  In many of their wins this season Allen would have driven them for a touchdown, and home field, the wind, and the momentum would have swept them to another victory. Not yesterday!

[BillsDude]

Your posts are usually spot on, but you are spot off for a few things here. I am going to give another side, as debate is how people really learn, and not by everyone agreeing...

 

Bottom line is, the better team won. One can analyze as much as they want otherwise, how the Bills played  very poorly, but does it ever occur that the reason the Bills played poorly is because the Eagles are really much better than the Bills? Heading into the season the Bills were ranked around 27 or 28,, and the Eagles I  believe at #5. Just because the Bills were 5-1 and the Eagles 3-4, that sample is not big enough to drastically change the pre-season rankings, as other variables early on in the season come into play. The Bills easily could have lost most of their games.

 

As for Allen, who says all rookie qbs have to be at the top of their game in year two? It was not long ago qbs were given 5 years to develop. Bill Polian said to give Josh up to 4 years I believe, if I remember correctly, as some qbs take longer to develop than others, because of raw talent, their college competition level and system they played, the current system, and so on. I see Josh taking steps to improve his short to medium game throws, his footwork, and decision making. Yes, there are still hiccups there, but to be down on Allen, when the last 3 games he has committed 6 TDS and 1 INT, any critique is a bit unjustified, based on the mentioned.

 

The Bills team need not apologize to anyone. Simply put they “likely” played their best. learned from any mistakes, and got beaten by the better team. Before the season, only a fool would have said the Bills should definitely beat the Eagles. The fact the Bills got blown out is more a reflection on how good the Eagles can be, and not how bad the Bills are. Since when can a team other than the Patriots not lose a game like this. No apologies are needed to me by the Bills, as I have faith in where they are headed. Trust the Process. Do not jump to conclusions when a game goes against unreasonable expectations, based on falsehoods, and not reality.

 

And the reality is the Bills are likely not a 11-5 or 12-4 or better team, as we still have defensive line, wr, holes, and a qb who just needs more time to fix some tendencies or flaws. Some may have hyped the team too much based on the record, not taking into consideration how hard it was for us to win those games, and taking into account who we won against. We have yet to a great game, for more than a half for any game. This tells me the Bills despite their record and lofty predictions about their D, they still are not guaranteed any wins against easy teams,, much less against teams that were forecasted to be the cream of the crop.

 

We lost fair and square, despite likely giving it our all. It’s time Bills fans not overreact to such rarer losses. It is what is is. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by BillsDude

[bmur66]

On the long throw to Foster I think the wind somehow killed the balls trajectory 

[ILBillsfan]

Interesting take on the middle season.  Game similarities are the same third quarter and closing the half’s for the most part are not up to snuff.  First quarter and end of game seem to be stronger, cept for last Sunday.  
 

McDermott does not seem like a coach that gets complacent but maybe there is some complacency in the Bills.

 

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Love the posts as always, Shaw!

 

Inside zone left - it's all they ran. Hell, they ran it so often Tim Graham wrote The Athletic post game write-up about it, and included commentary from Eagles line players and our defense. Granted, it was run out of various formations, but it wasn't something that was being stopped and they were going to literally run with it until they couldn't. I feel like a good amount of this is actually in relation to your second point above, and that this was the first real OL we've faced all season long. It doesn't bode well for our Turkey Day date with the Cowboys, but after a couple weeks of weaker OL's and our DL's middling/average performances against them, this week almost spelled disaster for the DL. Beyond the known issues with Edmunds in his gap assignments and block shedding on run downs (which he has actually been overall better about this year than last), was that we do not currently have a starting 1T DT on our roster. Star has regressed to the point where he is losing even his one-on-one matchups, and cannot move laterally to assist in first contact plays on running downs. Not sure any of us expected big things from Peko, but he's been, as expected, a non-issue for opposing lines in Harry's absence. 

 

What we're seeing now is a combination of issues with that specific role on our DL, Edmunds having a rough time with gap and block shedding assignments as a result, and opposing team's recognition of our rotation strategy. They know we're missing Harry, and that we consistently rotate personnel to provide fresh legs on key downs, however Zo spent more of the first quarter on the sidelines than in-play once he rotated off and the Eagles kept him off the field. It's something Miami exposed last week with us and injuries, and the Eagles took it further this past week with selecting opposing personnel and hurry-up packages to match.

 

It's hard - there's currently no internal remedy to the 1T DT role, and likely not one that can be readily found externally at this point until FA. Our run defense seems to go the way Edmunds plays in his gap assignment/block shedding roles, which is clearly impacted by the DL's ability to prevent/delay second level blocks at times. It's still something he did well with against the Giants and a few other weeks this season, but when he has games like the last two we do not have the DL personnel to compensate and assist until Harry is back next year, and hopefully performing at the same level. This leaves, more or less, schematic changes in how we approach the first quarter defensively to allow Edmunds what's needed for effective gap execution to set the tone for the game. For what it's worth, though, he wasn't the only one blowing gap assignments yesterday and getting eaten up by blocks.

his is really cool.   thanks.   I need to look what Graham wrote.

13 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

On the long throw to Foster I think the wind somehow killed the balls trajectory 

The wind was at Allen's back, so I don't know how that would happen, but wind is tricky and you may be right.  

 

The play was right in front of me.   When the ball was just past half-way there I could see it was short, and I think Foster should have been able to see it then, too.  He never stopped running.  As I said, the wind is tricky.  

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, BillsDude said:

Your posts are usually spot on, but you are spot off for a few things here. I am going to give another side, as debate is how people really learn, and not by everyone agreeing...

 

Bottom line is, the better team won. One can analyze as much as they want otherwise, how the Bills played  very poorly, but does it ever occur that the reason the Bills played poorly is because the Eagles are really much better than the Bills? Heading into the season the Bills were ranked around 27 or 28,, and the Eagles I  believe at #5. Just because the Bills were 5-1 and the Eagles 3-4, that sample is not big enough to drastically change the pre-season rankings, as other variables early on in the season come into play. The Bills easily could have lost most of their games.

 

As for Allen, who says all rookie qbs have to be at the top of their game in year two? It was not long ago qbs were given 5 years to develop. Bill Polian said to give Josh up to 4 years I believe, if I remember correctly, as some qbs take longer to develop than others, because of raw talent, their college competition level and system they played, the current system, and so on. I see Josh taking steps to improve his short to medium game throws, his footwork, and decision making. Yes, there are still hiccups there, but to be down on Allen, when the last 3 games he has committed 6 TDS and 1 INT, any critique is a bit unjustified, based on the mentioned.

 

The Bills team need not apologize to anyone. Simply put they “likely” played their best. learned from any mistakes, and got beaten by the better team. Before the season, only a fool would have said the Bills should definitely beat the Eagles. The fact the Bills got blown out is more a reflection on how good the Eagles can be, and not how bad the Bills are. Since when can a team other than the Patriots not lose a game like this. No apologies are needed to me by the Bills, as I have faith in where they are headed. Trust the Process. Do not jump to conclusions when a game goes against unreasonable expectations, based on falsehoods, and not reality.

 

And the reality is the Bills are likely not a 11-5 or 12-4 or better team, as we still have defensive line, wr, holes, and a qb who just needs more time to fix some tendencies or flaws. Some may have hyped the team too much based on the record, not taking into consideration how hard it was for us to win those games, and taking into account who we won against. We have yet to a great game, for more than a half for any game. This tells me the Bills despite their record and lofty predictions about their D, they still are not guaranteed any wins against easy teams,, much less against teams that were forecasted to be the cream of the crop.

 

We lost fair and square, despite likely giving it our all. It’s time Bills fans not overreact to such rarer losses. It is what is is. 

 

 

 

 

This is also very good, and I don't really disagree.   

 

First, I agree completely about Allen, as is evident from all my posts about him.   This is still a growth year for him, to be sure.   Still, I think he could have played better.  

 

And I think you're probably right - the Eagles are a good team that has underperformed.  

 

As I said, I was prepared for the Bills to lose, but not to be outclassed.   The Bills shouldn't allow teams to run on them like that, and the Bills offense should be able to put up more than 253 yards.   That's 100 less than their average.  

 

I've never expected 11-5 or 12-4.   I HAVE expected them to be competitive, as they were against the Patriots.  They weren't against the Eagles. 

[Nihilarian]

53 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Josh needs to manage his propensity to fumble the ball. He’s had to put it on the ground at least 10 this year already 

Eight and he has only lost three. 

 

 

The game was played in a rainy, windy environment that wasn't conducive to a lot of passing. Yet the Bills OC calls for 34 passes vs 24 for the Eagles. The opposite for the run game which should have been the focus of the Bills offense on a lousy weather day Bills 20 rush attempts for 98 yards vs Eagles 41 rushes for 218 yards, 3 TDs.

 

Another big factor that not many mention is all the penalties on the offense that helps kill drives. Plus the game calls coming in late now and again that the offense uses a time out or when they run out of those they take a delay of game. 

 

What's gonna happen when the snow gets here...is the OC still going to go pass happy when he should be pounding the rock?

 

 

 

Oh, and on another note. The Eagles beat the 7-1 Green Bay Packers in Green Bay. So, they can be formidable. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Nihilarian

[RoyBatty is alive]

Great write up.

 

Edmunds was a liability yesterday, he looked like the last Pats game last year when he was almost always out of position and/or effectively blocked. Edmunds was a hug reason for our porous run D.

 

Milano we agree,

 

Kroft I have been dumping on but he actually showed us what a veteran tighten end in the NFL can do offenseively, it was almost startling to me how wide open he would get.  He might  be worth the wait and the $,  too bad Allen missed him and often didnt see him.  Somehow Kroft does something we haven't seen in a tight end lately, he gets real separation.

 

And you are correct, Allen is no longer a rookie, he has to get better.