Bills 13, Eagles 31 postgame thread

[Vertig0]

13 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:

I don't think you understand how numbers work. His 30 out of 32 ranking includes his 4th quarters. That means his first three quarters have been so bad it brings his overall rating to 30 of 32. Got it? 

 

Based on your own logic, if 30 out of 32 sucks, then top 10 guys should be yearly studs.

 

2017 - Keenum - 2nd; Alex Smith - 8th;

2018 - Trubisky - 3rd; Winston - 8th

 

Those guys sure are world beaters right now (apologies to Alex Smith and his robotic leg). 

 

Goff went to a Super Bowl and is currently 25th, he must suck too.  Carson Wentz was 26th in his rookie season (which Josh just barely got out of in terms of games played), he must be trash. 

 

While I'll agree that Josh has his problems and there's plenty of work to do - you can't rest solely on one stat.  One season and one stat does not determine whether a QB will be successful or not; especially considering Allen was always considered to be a project.  I don't recall anyone ever saying "this kid is a year 1 starter, pro-ready".  Instead, I recall hearing, "has all the physical tools, is super raw, needs to sit and learn (which he never got the opportunity to do) and he could, potentially be a top guy." 

 

18 starts in, we're 5-2, we lost one game where we got our asses kicked as a whole, and now the multi-year project QB is now an immediate bust.    

[Teddy KGB]

14 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:

I don't think you understand how numbers work. His 30 out of 32 ranking includes his 4th quarters. That means his first three quarters have been so bad it brings his overall rating to 30 of 32. Got it? 

 

You gonna be okay ? 

 

No one cares about qbr fwiw, you can stop preaching anytime now ?

Edited October 28, 2019 by Teddy KGB

[Rocket94]

We tend to forget that despite some problems this year, a lot of good players remain on that team. I knew this would be a tough game for the Bills. This game shows that the Bills have work to do on the defense. The Bills are a very good team, but not a finished product.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Rocket94

[JESSEFEFFER]

Those were tough conditions to judge a passing game.  Wendt played pretty well but didn't really have a stellar day either.  Screens, some 3rd down runs that extended drives, one nice sideline throw to Jeffries which appeared to be an underthrow.  I thought the key would be which offense would have the better run game when moving toward the scoreboard end.  That seemed to pan out especially if you lump the screens into that category.

[SouthernBills]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Yes I do.  Regresses up if below the mean and down if above.  Why do you ask?  

 

Oh, by the way, since you love QBR, can you tell us how the formula works?   Or why it has been the subject of criticism?

 

As for sample size, has Allen had a big enough sample size?  What are you sampling?  Have you done a power analysis?

 

You sure you want to start down this road?

Of course I haven't done a power analysis of Josh Allen. Is this a joke? I leave it to people who's job it is to do so. I don't know the damndest thing about my washing machine's energy efficiency. I believe the sticker they put on the damn thing when I bought it. Maybe I'm a mark? 

[CincyBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:

I appreciate the measured response. I will, however, disagree with not being able to be on board with the team as a whole and off the boat with Josh. I think that part of modern football is coaches and front offices becoming married to the guy they picked. I like much of the coaching staff. I like most of the team. I think in this day and age it becomes everyone is going down with the ship. He is objectively one of the worst QBs in football according to the stats. They are trying to make it work. Daboll didn't forget how to play offense. I believe he has a QB he is forced to play that can't do what he's asking him to. 

 

So are you suggesting we move on from Allen?  Maybe bench him and see if Barkley got better since the last time he started in the NFL?  Or should we make a play for Andy Dalton?  He's thrown for over 300 yards a whole bunch of times this season.  Hell he even had a 400 yard, NO INT game to his credit at Seattle!

 

Or do you favor drafting a QB next year in the 1st or 2nd round? 

 

IMO Allen has already shown enough to make me think he's the guy.  At worst he's shown enough to earn at MINIMUM three full seasons to prove whether he is or isn't the guy.  I get not going all in on a guy for 5 - 6 years to see if he'll pan out.  But given what Allen has already shown he will get 3 seasons to lift his game to the next level.  if he doesn't get that time then the Bills front office will be guilty of gross football negligence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, SouthernBills said:

Of course I haven't done a power analysis of Josh Allen. Is this a joke? I leave it to people who's job it is to do so. I don't know the damndest thing about my washing machine's energy efficiency. I believe the sticker they put on the damn thing when I bought it. Maybe I'm a mark? 

You brought up sample size, not me.  So why did you bring it up?  Sample of what?  How big a size?  And you have no idea how QBR is calculated (because it’s a proprietary formula with ESPN) but you use it to definitively declare a player sucks.

 

Why don’t you just admit you have no clue?  You don’t like Allen, fine.  Quit pretending you have data to somehow prove what is just your opinion.

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:

You must not care as much as I do. Am I going to B word and complain when I think fixable things are not being fixed, yes. Will I allow it to influence my day to day life? Of course not. I thought message boards were for this sort of thing. Maybe I'm in the wrong place. 

You may assume that, but my post count should indicate that I care quite a bit about this team. Are message boards for venting? I suppose if that’s what you’re after. It’s hardly all sunshine and rainbows here, even after a win. It’s also a place for discussion, especially realistic discussion about the team and strategy etc. Is it realistic to think the Bills are ready to move on from Josh Allen ?  I’d venture that it probably isn’t , so many fans don’t see the point in trashing the QB until they finally make a change. You can be skeptical while still hoping it works out. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[SouthernBills]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So are you suggesting we move on from Allen?  Maybe bench him and see if Barkley got better since the last time he started in the NFL?  Or should we make a play for Andy Dalton?  He's thrown for over 300 yards a whole bunch of times this season.  Hell he even had a 400 yard, NO INT game to his credit at Seattle!

 

Or do you favor drafting a QB next year in the 1st or 2nd round? 

 

IMO Allen has already shown enough to make me think he's the guy.  At worst he's shown enough to earn at MINIMUM three full seasons to prove whether he is or isn't the guy.  I get not going all in on a guy for 5 - 6 years to see if he'll pan out.  But given what Allen has already shown he will get 3 seasons to lift his game to the next level.  if he doesn't get that time then the Bills front office will be guilty of gross football negligence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What concerns me is that the same problems everyone saw in college are the same problems that have not been fixed. I agree. The timframe is unfair to him. But I'm not sure the issues he has are the ones that are easily or even possibly corrected. His issues seem to be very intrinsic to who he has always been as a player. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, SouthernBills said:

What concerns me is that the same problems everyone saw in college are the same problems that have not been fixed. I agree. The timframe is unfair to him. But I'm not sure the issues he has are the ones that are easily or even possibly corrected. His issues seem to be very intrinsic to who he has always been as a player. 

Sorry but untrue.  His accuracy has been better this year.   Today was a struggle to be sure, but the whole team and especially the lines were terrible today

[SouthernBills]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You brought up sample size, not me.  So why did you bring it up?  Sample of what?  How big a size?  And you have no idea how QBR is calculated (because it’s a proprietary formula with ESPN) but you use it to definitively declare a player sucks.

 

Why don’t you just admit you have no clue?  You don’t like Allen, fine.  Quit pretending you have data to somehow prove what is just your opinion.

That is unfair, sir. I personally declared he sucked. Their made up stats just back up my entrenched opinion. 

 

I kid. I understand it's a flawed metric. I'm just as frustrated as anyone else. I don't like JA as a QB but I would be absolutely delighted to be proven a complete moron. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, SouthernBills said:

That is unfair, sir. I personally declared he sucked. Their made up stats just back up my entrenched opinion. 

 

I kid. I understand it's a flawed metric. I'm just as frustrated as anyone else. I don't like JA as a QB but I would be absolutely delighted to be proven a complete moron. 

You specifically brought up sample size and regression to the mean.  Why?  

 

Allen and the whole team had a tough day today.  The kid is getting it though.  You don’t perform as well as he has this season in fourth quarters and suck, as you put it.  That’s why I think they need to take the chains off and let him play from the opening whistle.

[Livinginthepast]

5 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

wildy innacurate!  He was 13-21 160 yds and 2 TDS in the 3rd before Philly went on their 10 hr drive.  Game went downhill after that, and yes Allen was partially to blame for that.

Yes Wildly inaccurate. He was 0-3 on that drive and went downhill from there. throwing 10? straight incompletions.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, SouthernBills said:

What concerns me is that the same problems everyone saw in college are the same problems that have not been fixed. I agree. The timframe is unfair to him. But I'm not sure the issues he has are the ones that are easily or even possibly corrected. His issues seem to be very intrinsic to who he has always been as a player. 

 

I disagree.  The primary concern in college was Allen's "accuracy" and I think the data and evidence to date indicates that is NOT a problem. 

 

And while the majority of "experts" had significant concerns about Allen a sizable minority thought he was a top 10 pick in the draft based on his extraordinary arm talent. 

 

What almost NONE of the "experts" seemed to be aware of was Allen's outstanding athleticism.  He has turned out to be  much better runner then anyone thought he was.

 

Allen has also clearly made significant progress in a number of the areas where he was supposedly deficient.  Just today with his TD pass to Beasley Allen showed a real maturity in not running and instead flipping the ball to the WR.  Allen is also taking on more of the pre-snap responsibilities and he's demonstrated excellent leadership skills.  He has a lot of work to do but no more then the rest of last years QB draft class has ahead of them.  But so far ALL the evidence is that Allen is getting better and his trajectory is pointed solidly upwards.

 

 

[stuvian]

This team is still very young in the journey from door mat to contender 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yes Wildly inaccurate. He was 0-3 on that drive and went downhill from there. throwing 10? straight incompletions.

 

Every QB can go through periods of being "wildly inaccurate" in a game.  Hell watching tonight's game Rogers missed a bunch of throws in the 2nd quarter. 

 

My observation was that when it was still a game Allen was playing well.  When the D gave up an eight & a half minute, 84 yard drive in the 4th quarter to put the Eagles up by 18 the Offense, including Allen, fell apart in response.

 

 

[SouthernBills]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You specifically brought up sample size and regression to the mean.  Why?  

 

Allen and the whole team had a tough day today.  The kid is getting it though.  You don’t perform as well as he has this season in fourth quarters and suck, as you put it.  That’s why I think they need to take the chains off and let him play from the opening whistle.

We'll have to agree to disagree. What I see is a player that does not have the necessary intangibles to be the long-term answer. You think he does, as do many others, and I hope I am wrong and you are absolutely right.

 

I'll be the first to publicly eat my crow. 

[Dr.Sack]

I’ll take Allen over any other QB in the 2018 Draft.

[Bob in STL]

11 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:

That is unfair, sir. I personally declared he sucked. Their made up stats just back up my entrenched opinion. 

 

I kid. I understand it's a flawed metric. I'm just as frustrated as anyone else. I don't like JA as a QB but I would be absolutely delighted to be proven a complete moron. 

 

Just keep on posting then.    Sorry,  couldn’t resist an opening like that.  

 

To me I see more good than bad.  He leads, he wins.   Give the kid a few play makers, some better tackles, and some more experience.  

Edited October 28, 2019 by Bob in STL

[SouthernBills]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Every QB can go through periods of being "wildly inaccurate" in a game.  Hell watching tonight's game Rogers missed a bunch of throws in the 2nd quarter. 

 

My observation was that when it was still a game Allen was playing well.  When the D gave up an eight & a half minute, 84 yard drive in the 4th quarter to put the Eagles up by 18 the Offense, including Allen, fell apart in response.

 

 

How about when we were gifted a miffed punt? 

Just now, Dr.Sack said:

I’ll take Allen over any other QB in the 2018 Draft.

That is an excellent point. I think the model should honestly be drafting three QBs a year until you find your guy.