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Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) on the Bills schedule


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1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Well yeah...I was just pointing this out because when we were faced against a top offense, we were very good.

So we aren't just showing dominance against bad offenses...

FO had the Bills as the second best defense in the NFL last season. They're believers. 

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This is why I say it's all setting up to be a disappointing year next year if the fans expect to improve on the final record from this year, which is probably going to be something like 12-4. It's also why Beane should go all in to try to get the #1 seed this year, because then you have a legitimate chance at making the Super Bowl. The schedule this year is historically easy.

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3 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

This is why I say it's all setting up to be a disappointing year next year if the fans expect to improve on the final record from this year, which is probably going to be something like 12-4. It's also why Beane should go all in to try to get the #1 seed this year, because then you have a legitimate chance at making the Super Bowl. The schedule this year is historically easy.

Why exactly would you think of next year when we are in this year?  Enjoy it as we all deserve a good team with playoffs.  With this defense, we can hang with anyone!  

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6 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

This is why I say it's all setting up to be a disappointing year next year if the fans expect to improve on the final record from this year, which is probably going to be something like 12-4. It's also why Beane should go all in to try to get the #1 seed this year, because then you have a legitimate chance at making the Super Bowl. The schedule this year is historically easy.

I am concerned about next years schedule

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Just now, ScottLaw said:

Why? You won't know how hard next years schedule is until next year. 

This is my new joke to all the posters who are very concerned about some aspect of the Bills and additionally "need to see"   some sort of statistic met to relieve their concern..... 

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31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He didn't say they were bad. He is simply saying that they have an incredibly easy schedule. Which they do.

 

Maybe? 

 

It's been pointed out that the Bills schedule to date features teams with losing records.  Well, that happens.  Sometimes teams that start out with a lot of wins, don't finish that way because their schedules get harder.  But the opposite is true, too.  Sometimes teams that start out with a lot of losses, get back in the game because their schedule gets easier.   So DVOA now and DVOA when the dust settles at the end of the season, not same thing.

 

In case anyone is unfamiliar, here is Football Outsider's primer on how DVOA is calculated.  I like Football Outsiders better than some of the analytics outfits, but I remain skeptical of any statistic that can't be explained with simple calculations.  In fact, in the above link, they flat out state "we need to have the entire play-by-play of a season in order to compute DVOA and DYAR".  So I'm not sure what's happening where it's being used to calculate strength of schedule 7 games in.

 

 

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The way I look at it is you have to get to 9-2. You have 5 games coming up. Eagles, Redskins, At Cleveland, At Miami and then the Broncos. If you factor in a fluky loss in 5 games (it is the NFL things happen) then you set yourself up to be 9-2 going into your toughest stretch of the season where you play the Ravens, Cowboys, Pats, and Steelers. Where even if you were to go 1-3 in that stretch you could still get to 10-5 going into a home game against the Jets. 

 

Just take care of your ***** against the Eagles at home. Beat the teams you are supposed to beat. That's how you get to a winning record.

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