Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

"The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

(NYup.com no paywall)

 

"What’s difficult to judge is how good these 5-1 Bills really are based on their considerably soft opening schedule — four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins. Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21. "

 

The whole "4 of 6 teams have 2 or fewer wins" thing is a point.  It's always the case early in the season when the actual quality of the teams doesn't measure up to their projected strength when scheduling, which is why every year some teams get out to a fast start and fade, while others start slow and claw their way back in it.  But there's also the point that we're the only team that has held the NE Patriots to <30 points, and we were within a TD reception of tieing or beating them, despite spotting them 3 TO most of the game.  The Titans are 3-4, but that's only 1 game off from the lead in their conference.  So we have gone toe-to-toe against a couple of legit teams and held our own, which adds a legit note of promise, just as the "4 of 6 opponents suck" adds a note of reserve.
 

"Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21.

It was a game Sunday in which Buffalo's defense allowed a season-high 21 points to an opponent that had been outscored 180-42 over its first five games. And Buffalo's offense gained a season-low 305 yards against a defense allowing a league-worst average 440 yards, and missing its top lineman after Christian Wilkins was ejected on the second play from scrimmage."

This sort of reads as though it's a mystery.  Later on in the article he does acknowledges one of the reasons the D likely struggled: "Stock Down: Third-string linebacker Maurice Alexander, who struggled playing in place of injured starter Matt Milano and primary backup Corey Thompson. Miami finished with a season-best 109 yards rushing after managing just 291 in its first five games." 

If your starter and primary backup at a key position are both out and that's being successfully exploited, is "inconsistancy" truly the correct word?  Most teams struggle when they're down to the #3 guy on depth.  What's clear to me is that something needs to be done if Milano may be out for a couple weeks healing that hamstring or if Thompson is not close to back from whatever surgical procedure he had at the end of Sept.

 

The other point is that Wawrow, as much as anyone, well knows the bi-polar nature of Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He's like Longfellow's "little girl" (" When she was good, She was very good indeed, But when she was bad she was horrid.).  We happened to get Fitzmagic, the "Very Good", lift-his-teammates version of Fitztragic.  Now it is on our D that we couldn't shut their run game down and put the pressure on that can switch him, but it's a known phenomenon.

 

Wawrow does acknowledge "On the bright side, Buffalo has shown resilience in overcoming its mistakes and taking advantage of those made by their opponents." - very true. 

I do feel it's just a teeensy bit disingenuous of Wawrow to note in his blurb on the "slow starting offense" that "Against Miami, Buffalo ......was blanked in the third quarter for the fourth time this season."  That's true, but the Bills in fact scored on their only offensive possession of the 3Q, that drive just extended into the 4Q - and that lengthy, grind-it-down drive by our O was probably just what the defense needed. 

I also strongly dislike the whole "Buffalo can chalk up 2 wins on missed kicks" idea.  As my kid learned in middle school, if one thing in a game changes then it's a different game all around.  Buffalo can hang up our one loss to NE to a blocked punt, right?  I mean, we lost by 6, and that cost us 7 amirite?  Anyone buy that logic?  Didn't think so.  We lost that one, we won the other two, period.

 

Anyway, overall a well written and reasonably balanced take on the criticism a bunch of folks here have been raising in a less- nuanced way.

 

 

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

"The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

(NYup.com no paywall)

 

"What’s difficult to judge is how good these 5-1 Bills really are based on their considerably soft opening schedule — four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins. Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21. "

 

The whole "4 of 6 teams have 2 or fewer wins" thing is a point.  It's always the case early in the season when the actual quality of the teams doesn't measure up to their projected strength when scheduling, which is why every year some teams get out to a fast start and fade, while others start slow and claw their way back in it.  But there's also the point that we're the only team that has held the NE Patriots to <30 points, and we were within a TD reception of tieing or beating them, despite spotting them 3 TO most of the game.  The Titans are 3-4, but that's only 1 game off from the lead in their conference.  So we have gone toe-to-toe against a couple of legit teams and held our own, which is promising.

"Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21.

It was a game Sunday in which Buffalo's defense allowed a season-high 21 points to an opponent that had been outscored 180-42 over its first five games. And Buffalo's offense gained a season-low 305 yards against a defense allowing a league-worst average 440 yards, and missing its top lineman after Christian Wilkins was ejected on the second play from scrimmage."

This sort of reads as though it's a mystery.  Later on in the article he does acknowledges one of the reasons the D likely struggled: "Stock Down: Third-string linebacker Maurice Alexander, who struggled playing in place of injured starter Matt Milano and primary backup Corey Thompson. Miami finished with a season-best 109 yards rushing after managing just 291 in its first five games." 

If your starter and primary backup at a key position are both out and that's being successfully exploited, is "inconsistancy" truly the correct word?  Most teams struggle when they're down to the #3 guy on depth.  What's clear to me is that something needs to be done if Milano may be out for a couple weeks healing that hamstring or if Thompson is not close to back from whatever surgical procedure he had at the end of Sept.

 

The other point is that Wawrow, as much as anyone, well knows the bi-polar nature of Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He's like Longfellow's "little girl" (" When she was good, She was very good indeed, But when she was bad she was horrid.).  We happened to get Fitzmagic, the "Very Good", lift-his-teammates version of Fitztragic.  Now it is on our D that we couldn't shut their run game down and put the pressure on that can switch him, but it's a known phenomenon.

 

Wawrow does acknowledge "On the bright side, Buffalo has shown resilience in overcoming its mistakes and taking advantage of those made by their opponents." - very true. 

I do feel it's just a teeensy bit disingenuous of Wawrow to note in his blurb on the "slow starting offense" that "Against Miami, Buffalo ......was blanked in the third quarter for the fourth time this season."  That's true, but the Bills in fact scored on their only offensive possession of the 3Q, that drive just extended into the 4Q - and that lengthy, grind-it-down drive by our O was probably just what the defense needed. 

I also dislike the whole "Buffalo can chalk up 2 wins on missed kicks".  As my kid learned in middle school, if one thing in a game changes then it's a different game all around.  Buffalo can hang up our one loss to NE to a blocked punt, right?  I mean, we lost by 6, and that cost us 7 amirite?  Anyone buy that logic?  Didn't think so.  We lost that one, we won the other two, period.

 

Anyway, overall a well written and reasonably balanced take on the criticism a bunch of folks here have been raising in a less- nuanced way.

 

 

  We did what we needed to do to win when the clock struck 0:00 at the end of the 4th quarter.  Good teams find a way to pull out a win.  The Bills teams prior to McD would have found a way to lose these same games.  Convincing victories will come with time.

[H2o]

I think the penalties, not having Milano out there on defense, and the key drops were the difference between 35/42 - 10 and what we got which was 31-21. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  We did what we needed to do to win when the clock struck 0:00 at the end of the 4th quarter.  Good teams find a way to pull out a win.  The Bills teams prior to McD would have found a way to lose these same games.  Convincing victories will come with time.

 

Agreed.  Mostly I think the key take-away from both the game and the article is the rather heartfelt McDermott statement in his presser:

" “A lot of things, as you saw in the game, we’ve got to get cleaned up this week."

[TH3]

I am concerned about how good we are and need to see a complete game, a 300 yard passing effort, a long completion, a screen pass, some slants, some people jump through a table and Haushka kick a fifty yarder before my lack of concern will go away....

[LeGOATski]

I feel like the Bills have been in control every game, even the Pats game. They've made they're own destiny.

 

It looked like they came out flat against Miami. Sometimes I dislikes the offensive playcalling against Miami. Too many designed runs for Josh, when maybe they should've designed some easy passes to Beasley or Singletary/Gore to help get the QB in rhythm.

[hemma]

"four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins"

 

6 of 7 for the Pats.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think the penalties, not having Milano out there on defense, and the key drops were the difference between 35/42 - 10 and what we got which was 31-21. 

 

Maybe.  But Allen was looking mi-tee confusled out there initially, and the lack of blitz pickups were bad.  That's now I think the 3rd? team that has pulled off a coule of those on us.  It's not that our OL can't do it, it's that whoever is responsible (Allen or Morse) is not adjusting the protections and/or setting up the hot read.  Beasley is registering clear frustration, but he's part of the problem at times not recognizing when his coverage guy blows past him to blitz and he needs to, as one of the Cover-1 guys puts it, "become QB friendly" and look for the ball.

 

McDermott is damn straight that those have to get cleaned up or we're going to get clocked with 'em until we show we can make teams pay.

 

7 minutes ago, TH3 said:

I am concerned about how good we are and need to see a complete game, a 300 yard passing effort, a long completion, a screen pass, some slants, some people jump through a table and Haushka kick a fifty yarder before my lack of concern will go away....

 

Good luck with that!  Send us a postcard!

PS you omitted the 3 TDs and failed to specify "long completion of greater than 30 air yards"

 

3 minutes ago, hemma said:

"four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins"

 

6 of 7 for the Pats.

 

Oh, now, that's Crazy Talk!

[K-9]

While I think Wawrow has a point, we are also 5-1 without having played a complete game so far. This is a young team coming off a 6-10 season last year that is still maturing. They have nothing to apologize for in beating anyone on their schedule to this point. 
 

And regarding needing a comeback to beat Miami, that’s disrespectful to Miami more than it is to us. Flores and some on his staff are intimately familiar with our team having been part of game planning against us while in NE***. Anyone who thought we could just show up and beat Miami, wasn’t dealing in reality. 

[whatdrought]

Nobody asks about the Patriots strength of schedule, us being the only winning team they’ve played, and them still nearly losing even after our QB gift wrapped the game for them. 

 

You play whose on the schedule. We play down to teams and that worrisome, but our team under McD has also been known to play way above our expectations- that should be scary for all the “good teams” on our schedule. 

[Captain Hindsight]

I think Miami played their best game of the year. They are clearly not going 0-16. That team is better coached than I thought.

 

Bills came out flat, woke up and then turned it on and put away a desperate team. It wasnt too long ago that certain bearded QB was QBing a team that started 0-8 before winning a few games against some good teams. Fitz knows what it takes to win and he gave it his all sunday. Bills were a better team and won, but Miami will be no cakewalk for the rest of the year. 

 

Unless Rosen plays

[Don Otreply]

You are who your record says you are...

[Rocket94]

For the first time in several years, I expect the Bills to win every week and I don't know why. They are still a hard team to figure out. They haven't closed any team out yet this year and maybe they never will. 

[Aussie Joe]

I think the honest answer to the question Wawrow poses is we still dont really know...

 

I hope the Eagles bring their A game this week so we can find out one way or the other...

[ngbills]

Regardless of how they have won. Before the season started what record did we expect at this point? Most would have said 5-1 or 4-2 at worst. 

[LABILLBACKER]

18 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think the penalties, not having Milano out there on defense, and the key drops were the difference between 35/42 - 10 and what we got which was 31-21. 

I completely agree. The bye week seemed to have the team lethargic. The NE 16-10 game is a true indicator of who we are. We came within a blocked punt from beating the best team in the NFL.  Yes our offense is still a work in progress.  Like to see Singletary/Gore split it 50/50. Josh has to start hitting those deep throws.  We'll be alright. 

[DtownB2]

To be honest I just feel that this team has a bend, don't break style to it. I know it's not the most desirable manner to win games but they're 5-1. Strong defense, decent enough offense to put some points on the board and be in a position to win. As long as the Bills win I could care less of how the do it. Football games are so up and down and as long as the can hold on and not shoot themselves in the foot they will have a chance. Bring on Philly.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

Regardless of how they have won. Before the season started what record did we expect at this point? Most would have said 5-1 or 4-2 at worst. 

 

Yes - but we're all homers.  The bills are a confusing team though.

 

They are good enough to play with anyone and theoretically beat them.  They also can find ways to fail.

[Dablitzkrieg]

John Wawrow is a hack.  If you listen to the pressers, he is constantly attempting to bait McDermott, which he never bites btw!  He is often using hyperbole to make a point.  I dont really take anything he says seriously, but thats just me.

[Buddo]

Tbh, we have had a tendency, even when going well, to play to the level of the opposition, whether it be up or down. This, I think, is one of the reasons we are so hard to fathom.

 

Over time, I expect that to change, especially if we keep winning, but I would suggest that it's part of a 'process' teams have to go through prior to becoming consistent performers.

 

It's frustrating as all heck, but as I said before, providing the W's keep coming.....;)