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Fourth Quarter Scoring vs. the first three


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In another thread I responded to grading Daboll and I continue to ask why in the fourth the Bills can look so good (and these are all one score games), but seem to bog down the first three.

 

They've scored 53 points in the 4th (not including the on-side kick vs. Miami) with Allen, so are averaging 10.6 points & have scored 61 points in the first 3 quarters or 12.2 so to me that is the most interesting stat.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/4th-quarter-points-per-game

 

How about playing every quarter like it is the fourth???? 

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Isn't there a saying, "it doesn't matter how you start, it's how you finish."  The Bills of the past usually started off pretty well, but couldn't close out games.  The Bills of today are closing out games and putting Ws on the board.  It may be ugly, but they're winning.  I know we're used to heartbreak, but enjoy what's going on now.  The future is extremely bright for our team.

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I think it's a combination of playing more conservatively early in games and also an increased intensity in the 4th quarter.  There's the old addage "take what the defense gives you" which is what they tend to do for the first 3 quarters, then in the 4th, they take what they need to, regardless of what the defense is giving them.  It would be great if they could dictate more throughout the game.  My guess is that because we have been playing mostly lesser opponents, the conservative strategy has been a winning formula.  As we play some more difficult opponents, that may not be good enough.

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25 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

I think it's a combination of playing more conservatively early in games and also an increased intensity in the 4th quarter.  There's the old addage "take what the defense gives you" which is what they tend to do for the first 3 quarters, then in the 4th, they take what they need to, regardless of what the defense is giving them.  It would be great if they could dictate more throughout the game.  My guess is that because we have been playing mostly lesser opponents, the conservative strategy has been a winning formula.  As we play some more difficult opponents, that may not be good enough.

It's not a good game plan long-term and that is the concern.  The idea of "keeping the game close & we can turn it on when we have to" is certainly not what the top teams in the NFL play for.

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2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

The Bills realize they need points in the 4th, vs. the other three quarters where they'd be happy if it was 0-0......

 

Sorry I'm down on how they run the Offense.

agreed.  It seems there is no sense of urgency until they are behind, then they tighten things up.  Is this due to a young offense, mistakes, play calling, strategy…?  It's great to see they can turn it on when needed - I'll take it over losing any day.

Edited by Azucho98
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2 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I think it's a combination of playing more conservatively early in games and also an increased intensity in the 4th quarter.  There's the old addage "take what the defense gives you" which is what they tend to do for the first 3 quarters, then in the 4th, they take what they need to, regardless of what the defense is giving them.  It would be great if they could dictate more throughout the game.  My guess is that because we have been playing mostly lesser opponents, the conservative strategy has been a winning formula.  As we play some more difficult opponents, that may not be good enough.

Are they actually playing more conservatively early in games, though ? Without checking stats, appears they are passing the ball a lot early, so I’m not sure if that fits the conservative mold. They’ve also moved the ball well, then drives have stalled with turnovers, penalties, drops etc etc. While the difference in scoring in the various quarters is interesting, it may not point out any obvious problems/ solutions. 

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