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Week 7 expert picks


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30 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

This is a sharp vs public game, but somewhat unusual in the sense that the public likes the underdog. Joe Sixpack is looking at that line and thinking that the Bills don't score, so they won't cover 17. The "sharps" are pounding that line up every time the public pushes it down. So the analytics folks believe the Bills will easily run through that Miami team and hold them to like 7 points. I tend to go with the analytics folks, but I question that total. It's tough to see Fitz not giving Miami 10 and Buffalo 7. Rosen would be a different story. 

 

Also wanna add that I fully disagree with the folks who view this as the trap game the Bills usually lose. The "trap" games they usually lose were all THREE road games they WON. They're not often TD plus favorites, but I don't remember them losing one.

 

Last time I recall them favored by a large amount was the 2017 opener and they killed the Jets.

 

I think the Bills win going away. 

 

 

I generally agree with you but I do expect at least 10 for Miami and no more than 31 by buffalo, playing our version of keep away. If we win by the 17+ I expect at least 2 big defensive turnovers. In and kinda unrelated note I think this defense has so few takeaways at least partially due to lack of plays. Some teams seem content to just punt rather force a play.

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59 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I generally agree with you but I do expect at least 10 for Miami and no more than 31 by buffalo, playing our version of keep away. If we win by the 17+ I expect at least 2 big defensive turnovers. In and kinda unrelated note I think this defense has so few takeaways at least partially due to lack of plays. Some teams seem content to just punt rather force a play.

Not so sure about the TO's. I think the one area in which the defense is less than excellent is pass rush. TO's are somewhat random, but I think the greatest contributor is knocking the QB around and making him uncomfortable. I just don't think we have enough horses to really do that on a consistent basis. Beane was definitely snooping around with Clark and Clowney, so I assume he's on the same page. That'll likely be the area they upgrade personnel defensively in the offseason. Defense is still one of the best in the league even with that issue. The offense, and specifically Allen, will determine how far this thing goes.

 

As far as the game prediction; I get where you're coming from. It's tough to see the Bills scoring a ton of points and it's tough to see holding Fitz to less than 10. But I've been in the sportsbook industry long enough to lend some credence to what the money mover's are looking at.

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1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Not so sure about the TO's. I think the one area in which the defense is less than excellent is pass rush. TO's are somewhat random, but I think the greatest contributor is knocking the QB around and making him uncomfortable. I just don't think we have enough horses to really do that on a consistent basis. Beane was definitely snooping around with Clark and Clowney, so I assume he's on the same page. That'll likely be the area they upgrade personnel defensively in the offseason. Defense is still one of the best in the league even with that issue. The offense, and specifically Allen, will determine how far this thing goes.

 

As far as the game prediction; I get where you're coming from. It's tough to see the Bills scoring a ton of points and it's tough to see holding Fitz to less than 10. But I've been in the sportsbook industry long enough to lend some credence to what the money mover's are looking at.

You actually work in the sports book industry? I love math- I am a math teacher- and I would love to work in that industry for a little while. I know me and over time I would be come too cynical but for a short time it would be fun.

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21 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

You actually work in the sports book industry? I love math- I am a math teacher- and I would love to work in that industry for a little while. I know me and over time I would be come too cynical but for a short time it would be fun.

It's definitely a "fun" gig, but it's not exactly lucrative at my level. I've decided that I like my work/life balance enough that I'll stick with it. 

 

I think it would be great to do seasonally or something like that if given the change. The role of ticket writer will be obsolete relatively soon though so I really have no choice but to push myself a bit. Hard work is not really my thing. Congrats on the teaching. But yeah, it's all about math and data.

 

It does make the games a little less fun when you're constantly thinking about it from a numbers perspective, so that's a drawback. 

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5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

You aren't the only one.

 

The over/under is only 41 points, which is extremely low for a game with a 17 point favorite.

 

 

And the money is pretty close to even, so the line has done its job. Had to get some $$ on Miami, and 17 is huge for an NFL game. Miami ( spread) and the under looks to be a decent bet. 

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56 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It's definitely a "fun" gig, but it's not exactly lucrative at my level. I've decided that I like my work/life balance enough that I'll stick with it. 

 

I think it would be great to do seasonally or something like that if given the change. The role of ticket writer will be obsolete relatively soon though so I really have no choice but to push myself a bit. Hard work is not really my thing. Congrats on the teaching. But yeah, it's all about math and data.

 

It does make the games a little less fun when you're constantly thinking about it from a numbers perspective, so that's a drawback. 

I spent one year trying to prove I could pick games-not only did it take too much time and take most of the fun out of games that even winning at a 62% clip I did not make much money at it unless I knew which games to put bigger money on-which I failed at doing properly. ANyways good luck to you.

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11 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

In. I THINK we're gonna smash these guys tomorrow. Next week will be a real test.

 

 


BTW, if you’re interested in beating this other game, within the real game- finding angles are critical.

 

e.g. While in Vegas watching the Bills & the NFL last year, someone told us he was making huge 4-5 figure bets on Alabama 1st. Halves. He figured and watched Saban run it up on the weak sisters early, covering that spread easily! He rarely lost one.
 

These little gems are the best.

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3 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:


BTW, if you’re interested in beating this other game, within the real game- finding angles are critical.

 

e.g. While in Vegas watching the Bills & the NFL last year, someone told us he was making huge 4-5 figure bets on Alabama 1st. Halves. He figured and watched Saban run it up on the weak sisters early, covering that spread easily! He rarely lost one.
 

These little gems are the best.

Yeah. Glad it worked out, but I'd be REAL careful with those "gems." Lot of those diamonds are CZ.

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