QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

[Fan in Chicago]

31 minutes ago, Locomark said:

Well Hapless Bills Fan has this right that this rating could have a lot of flaws and no one should jump ship over it. However the clear points to me are: a) Josh need to improve  b) Josh won’t get any love until he starts putting up some big yardage games. c) Josh makes plays in almost every game that makes you go “wow.” I haven’t seen these QB escape plays since Flutie, and some obvious high end talent plays in a Bills QB in 30 years. 

 

is he the franchise QB we hoped for? I would say it’s leaning to a yes.  I think we will know that by the end of next season. He has plenty of games left this year and next year we have a boatload of $ to add even more weapons and talent to truly see what we have. 

 

Imagine if Josh had KC’s WRs and TE....

 

 

All fair points. Allen definitely needs to continue improving esp in protecting the football and his own body. However, it is good to see that we dont have a bust on our hands. He is trending (note i just said trending) more towards Ben Roethlisberger than EJ Manuel/JP Losman/Trent Edwards

[JESSEFEFFER]

10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Absolutely.  Throwing receivers open and hitting them in stride are major factors in YAC.

 

The nuance is that what you describe are major factors to make YAC possible on a play but not really tied to the quantity that actually results from it.

[Gugny]

33 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

The nuance is that what you describe are major factors to make YAC possible on a play but not really tied to the quantity that actually results from it.

 

Definitely.  The QB is responsible for placing the ball properly; the WR is responsible for doing something with it.

[skibum]

OK, Mahomes at #10, great list. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I am sorry I do disgaree on 1. It isn't the only reason but it is more than rarely the reason. 

 

I have to agree with GunnerBill here. 

 

There have been successful season after successful season where Brady led the league in or was near the top in yardage, but only mediocre in Air Yards.

He made a lot of his career on YAC.  Yes, a lot of it was his receivers - he's been blessed by throwing to receivers like Welker who have a knack for tucking themselves small and making the first tackler miss, or TE like Hernandez and Gronk who could truck people. 

 

But Brady enabled them by being able to throw the ball very precisely so they knew where it would be and could tuck it away without making adjustments and focus on running.  He also consistently throws with anticipation so they have the best chance to make yards before the defender can get there.

 

40 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

The nuance is that what you describe are major factors to make YAC possible on a play but not really tied to the quantity that actually results from it.

 

Yes and no.  I think your point is that the receiver obviously contributes to the YAC by the factors I mention above - folding small, trucking defenders.  But the quantity is directly affected by the QB's ability to throw with anticipation and throw precisely where the receiver expects the ball to be.  That is why when you look at some of the same receivers YAC before Brady and after Brady, the YAC are markedly better when they were with Brady. 

I mean, think about it - football is a game of fractions of a second.  A guy who can run a 5 second 40 takes .125 seconds to cover a yard.  He can travel 5 yards in 0.625 seconds, so giving him that extra half a second before the defender can close and that extra fraction of a second where he doesn't have to reach for the ball to tuck it, directly translates to YAC.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, CodeMonkey said:

This is how 538 grades out QB's.  Seems to be a lot more reasonable to me.

 

538 grades QBs

 

I'm not sure I understand what they're doing, but it seems to be saying at this point, Josh Allen is a somewhat better than average starter (taken overall) but not the league-leading game changer that a Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Brady, Prescott, Rodgers or...Matt Ryan? is? 

The two surprises to me on that ranking are Ryan and Jackson, but they are winning and have good stats.

[JESSEFEFFER]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have to agree with GunnerBill here. 

 

There have been successful season after successful season where Brady led the league in or was near the top in yardage, but only mediocre in Air Yards.

He made a lot of his career on YAC.  Yes, a lot of it was his receivers - he's been blessed by throwing to receivers like Welker who have a knack for tucking themselves small and making the first tackler miss, or TE like Hernandez and Gronk who could truck people. 

 

But Brady enabled them by being able to throw the ball very precisely so they knew where it would be and could tuck it away without making adjustments and focus on running.  He also consistently throws with anticipation so they have the best chance to make yards before the defender can get there.

 

 

Yes and no.  I think your point is that the receiver obviously contributes to the YAC by the factors I mention above - folding small, trucking defenders.  But the quantity is directly affected by the QB's ability to throw with anticipation and throw precisely where the receiver expects the ball to be.  That is why when you look at some of the same receivers YAC before Brady and after Brady, the YAC are markedly better when they were with Brady. 

I mean, think about it - football is a game of fractions of a second.  A guy who can run a 5 second 40 takes .125 seconds to cover a yard.  He can travel 5 yards in 0.625 seconds, so giving him that extra half a second before the defender can close and that extra fraction of a second where he doesn't have to reach for the ball to tuck it, directly translates to YAC.

 

It's the route, the defense, the blocking (if any) and the running ability of the receiver.  Just adding up YAC is not really on the QB.  The throw's quality as related to YAC is really a yes or no question.  If YAC were possible based on the route and coverage, did the throw allow for it to happen or not?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

It's the route, the defense, the blocking (if any) and the running ability of the receiver.  Just adding up YAC is not really on the QB.  The throw's quality as related to YAC is really a yes or no question.  If YAC were possible based on the route and coverage, did the throw allow for it to happen or not?

 

I think this is one where we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

I forget which outfit, but one or more put out an "advanced stat" that attempts to calculate what the receiver's YAC ought to be based on the timing and anticipation of the throw and the separation from defenders when the ball arrives.  I've never quite known what to think of it, but the point is the fact that it's an advanced stat calculation means it's far more complex than "yes or no"

[JESSEFEFFER]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure I understand what they're doing, but it seems to be saying at this point, Josh Allen is a somewhat better than average starter (taken overall) but not the league-leading game changer that a Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Brady, Prescott, Rodgers or...Matt Ryan? is? 

The two surprises to me on that ranking are Ryan and Jackson, but they are winning and have good stats.

 

From what I saw, those are divsional averages for the QBs that have played but showed all the rostered QBs.  Thats why the majority of the data points are to the left of the line.  So, the bar is diffrent in each division Josh had a 141 which put him in the same vicinity as Trubisky, Brisset, and Manning.  He is ahead of all the 2018 rookie class QBs except Jackson, which fits my eye test.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...the 84 million dollar man, a/k/a Kirk "How'd You Like That" Cousins at #15 tells me all I need to know about validity....SMH...........

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure I understand what they're doing, but it seems to be saying at this point, Josh Allen is a somewhat better than average starter (taken overall) but not the league-leading game changer that a Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Brady, Prescott, Rodgers or...Matt Ryan? is? 

The two surprises to me on that ranking are Ryan and Jackson, but they are winning and have good stats.

 

Actually Ryan isn't winning at the moment. But he is still playing very well. The lack of winning is not on him. 

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

He is ahead of all the 2018 rookie class QBs except Jackson, which fits my eye test.

 

And he and Darnold are close which definitely fits my eye test. And as much as Baker last year and Lamar this year are the guys that have stolen the headlines it is Allen and Darnold that I'd feel best about in terms of chances to be great. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Actually Ryan isn't winning at the moment. But he is still playing very well. The lack of winning is not on him. 

 

I sit corrected

[folz]

I don't put too much into PFF stats, but Josh probably won't be high on any QB lists right now for the simple fact that he has 7 interceptions and 5 fumbles (not all lost) in 5 games, with only 5 TDs. So, 10 or 11 turnovers vs. 5 TDs. That stat allows those who expect or want Josh to fail to bolster their opinion of him. And a two to one TO to TD rate isn't going to have you at the top of any lists.

 

Now, we have watched every Josh play. We see the progression, we see the completion percentage rising, we see the comebacks and the great throws at times. We weigh in that 3 of those interceptions were against the best defense in the league when he was pressing too much and that he seems to have learned from that in how he played in Tennessee. So, our opinion of Josh will be higher than most from the outside or those just looking at stats. Josh hasn't had the 300 yard 4 TD-type of games, etc. (and frankly, we don't need him to), for people outside to say wow, he's good. We can say wow Josh won that game for us, but his stat line might be 200 yards 1TD 1INT. From outside that looks meh.

 

The turnovers and penalties have kept this team from gaining even more yards and scoring more TDs. So, its just a matter of Josh especially, but the offense overall, cleaning up their game. If they do that (and Josh keeps steadily improving elsewhere), eventually people outside will start seeing what we see. 

 

[CorkScrewHill]

There are some who think JA is the second coming, but most of his defenders including myself have a different viewpoint. When Josh was in the draft process most stated he had the highest upside but would either take time to develop or for the pessimists that he would never develop. If we had drafted Baker, Sam, or the other Josh we would be feeling more nervous because our pro-ready quarterback was not pro-ready. Josh has exceeded the expectations of where most "experts" and "JA haters" thought he would be.. and they reluctantly state he is not as bad as they thought. Terrific ...if he continues to progress toward his ceiling then he will be the QB we have long coveted, but given his starting point you would be foolish to give up on him .. or on the flip side based on where he is it would be foolish to crown him. The rest of this year and the beginning of next will tell a lot. I for one am cautiously optimistic.

[LSHMEAB]

On 10/18/2019 at 10:08 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why do you "know" it's blasphemy on this board?  I think the majority here acknowledge that Allen shows promise in that he seems to have taken steps in his 2nd season, but there are some aspects of his game that are simply not acceptable and he needs to improve.  The turnovers are Exhibit A (for Allen).  Going for the Big Shot instead of moving the chains is Exhibit B.

 

Now he thinks he can fix 'the INT thing, but I remember to the day Ryan Fitzpatrick giving an end-of-season interview in 2011 where he answered a question about his trajectory as QB, acknowledging the 23 INTs he threw that year and said something to the effect of "that's something I believe I can fix, and I will".  He did throw fewer the following year, but not enough fewer - 16 - and the team moved on. 

 

There is more hope for Allen to fix it, after all he is in the midst of his 2nd season and has started 16 games, whereas at that point Fitzpatrick was finishing his 7th season and had close to 40 games.  A bunch of eventually good or great QB threw too many picks in their first seasons and improved. 

 

But until Allen does demonstrate consistently that he's improved, it's right to be unconvinced.

I agree with everything you stated about Allen. He's shown a ton of promise, has all the tools, and is quite clearly dedicated to his craft. He also hasn't produced at a high level and has some recognition/situational awareness/ball placement issues. So while I agree that the jury is out, I think Mango makes a fair point. 

 

When you critique Allen, you can pretty much expect some incoming venom. That's fine because we're all adults here(maybe). If you can't take some backlash on a message board, the world probably just isn't the place for you. But even floating the notion that Allen may never improve would definitely be poorly received. That makes a great deal of sense to a degree. We're all Bills fans(I assume), so the next 3 to 4 years hinge on JA's development. It would set the franchise back years if he's not the guy. Nobody(I assume) wants to see that. On the flip side, there's value in objective, intellectually honest analysis.

 

I'll continue to take the wait and see approach. It's impossible not to like the guy, but I'm gonna need to see more.

[WideNine]

20 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

That list means nothing to me.  It proves nothing.  Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen.

 

Allen YAC yards to open receivers

Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg)

Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg)

Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg)
Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg)

 

Brady YAC yards to open receivers

Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg)

Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg)

Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg)

 

Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws

Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg)

Game 2 - none

Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg)

Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg)

 

Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws

Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg)

Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg)

Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg)

 

Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs)

Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg)

Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg)

Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg)

Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg)

 

Brady YAC yards with schemed plays

Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg)

Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg)

Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg)

 

These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards.  The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions.  To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady.  That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced.  Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws.  Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB.  Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense.  The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above.  The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards.  That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards.

 

Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg.  2 RB screens went for 77 yards.  Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage?

 

 

Just to add to the subjective nature, your analysis is a great example...and I am not knocking it.

 

But I was thinking about YAC and got to thinking about how NE for years has gotten away with illegal pick/rub plays that allow all their short completions to go much further.

 

In fact when we played them McDermott was keyed in on that tactic and even threw a challenge on one pick play.

 

The refs got it wrong saying there was no contact...but the rule actually states that it is legal to have contact and rub a defender off a receiver within 1 yard of the LOS, any blocking or impeding a defender covering a receiver beyond 1 yard is illegal regardless of contact.

 

So stopping directly in his path and leaning a leg back to force him to make a move to avoid you so you can free your receiver is illegal.

 

Tough to get the right call from these guys, but if they start to get it right against NE because it is so blatent, NE's passing offense will have to be revamped.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2019 by WideNine

[Bob in STL]

Seems like Allen is held to a different standard than those in his draft class and even the QBs in the years prior.  

 

I think he will answer his critics by winning.  

Edited October 19, 2019 by Bob in STL

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

On 10/18/2019 at 11:25 AM, ScottLaw said:

Darnold is a more complete QB at this point.... he's already there in that I think he will be a starter for the long haul in this league for two big reasons. He is accurate, and he goes through his progressions quickly already. His arm strength is more than adequate enough as well, but I consider the first two reasons much more important in why he will be around for a long time. 

 

Just my opinion. 

Like I said, you are trolling. Your negativity is an absolute joke. 

[JoshAllin]

they have a really horrible rating system had to end subscription last year, lineups is good but dont think they update

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 10/18/2019 at 9:30 AM, ScottLaw said:

At this point I’d put Darnold as the clear best QB from that class with Jackson and Allen behind him and Mayfield last.